Friday, January 1, 2016

Guesstimating Jimmy Haslam Decisions About Browns

"Right now we're just focusing on the Steelers blah blah yada yada"...

Well yeah, and in re that,  this article from behind enemy lines outlines what Big Ben expects of the Browns this time around, and one very good writer's objective analysis.

But for now, as I mentioned, I was unable to watch the Browns almost beat the Chiefs, and need to update my views based on new information.

Thanks to Joe Gilbert's "Film Room", I now know that some of the Johnny-bashing was partly justified, as Joe showed me how he failed to throw to open receivers before fleeing the pocket.

In fairness to Johnny, in one of the screenshots used, I saw two guys in his line of sight between Duke Johnson and him.  Johnny probably never saw his fellow short guy on that one.  I believe that with more experience, Johnny will count bodies and throw to the predesignated spot on time...

Ok what I mean is, if he can see the safety and cornerback, and can tell that neither is on Duke (who had peeled out from the backfield), he would know that Duke is at his spot and open.

Also, that fairly short pass would need air under it to get over the two Chiefs in the way, and the wind might well have screwed it up.

But in the same shot, Johnny had Barnidge right in front of him and could have thrown low and hard, so Joe nailed him anyway.

Joe didn't itemize every example of this, but I've learned to trust this guy not to exaggerate, and he said this happened too often.

While I still think that the wind and Johnny's predetermined strategy to overcome it is being minimized even by Joe, certainly the kid could have done better.

But once again, he's basically a rookie, and this step back was long overdue after game-by-game improvements.

Joe even went to the season-long stats again.  Just in time, as Johnny was below 50% in this one, and in his microscopic sample size, it knocked down his completion percentage.  Not fair, Joe.

But I'm not a Manzielian either.  I defend him from stupid attacks and say he can be a franchise guy and is already pretty damn good, but I haven't built an altar to him either.

While I'm not a puritanical old lady like Mike Pettine and agree with Jim Brown that partying on his off-time is no big deal, it is starting to make me nervous.  Just a little.

And his health.  He is, after all, a little guy, and concussions are scary too.  Once you've had one concussion, you're more susceptible to them, and this fragility increases with each subsequent bell-ringing.

So I think that the Browns first pick might well be a quarterback.

The favorite should be Jared Goff.  He has already proven his impressive accuracy, ability to set protections, progress through reads, slide in the pocket, and did I mention his amazing accuracy?

I don't count his last-ditch attempted comeback interceptions, nor the blown route or deflection interceptions, so that's no issue for a real analyst.  He "admits" that he has forced some throws, but not cited the circumstances.  

Goff sounds very much like a more athletic Bernie Kosar.  Ideally, he would spend most of his first season on the bench, as his isn't a pro system and he's a junior...but if necessary he could start as a rookie.  If necessary.

This wouldn't necessarily trigger a trade, since Johnny has more than earned starting status here, and no, it is not necessary to start any player as a rookie.  That was necessary before the rookie salary cap because such a high pick took up such a large percentage of cap-space, but is no longer the case.

Assertions that any quarterback brought in to understudy Johnny would have to be a scrambler are ignorant.  Johnny has functioned in the same basic scheme as Josh McCown, and functioned well in the same pockets.  

A Johnny trade wouldn't work for me because nobody would give up their first round pick for him now, and to accept less would be just plain dumb.

Once he accomplishes more as a starter, his value will go up rapidly.  He'll have a year left on his currently cheap contract, which is value-added, and his successor will have had a year to develop...and depending on what happens HE could be the trade bait.

I'm glad that Austin Davis is getting a shot vs the Steelers, because I want to see more of him.  I haven't totally given up on him as a sleeper.  For me, every quarterback gets a clean slate until he has four seasons or 16 starts.  Late bloomers aren't uncommon, and accuracy is the most underrated asset a quarterback can have.  

In this article by Mary Kay Cabbot, Mike Pettine discusses the likelihood of replacing some assistant coaches.  He's unmistakably talking about O'Neill.

I still believe that Mike calls the shots there, and would be using his defensive coordinator as a fall guy, but for Jimmy Haslam, it could water down the angry mob's bloodlust.

I can do some wishful thinking of my own on Mike Pettine here.  Certainly he's a blockhead, as his "proven" defensive system has been unproven in Buffalo as well as here.  In Buffalo, Rex Ryan inherited a lot of talent and a defense ranked near the top of the league.  Now it's mediocre and the players hate it.

But Mike is a brain.  I find it hard to imagine that, given an off-season to reflect and analyze, he won't see what happened in both places and adapt.  Especially if Jimmy Haslam hires a consultant (I hope Parcells, since he was an awesome HEAD COACH), and has him point out the obvious.

Mike Pettine is now out of leverage.  If he's fired now, he'll never be a head coach again.  Given how bad his defense has sucked this season, if he even can land a dc gig, it will be a cheap and short one.

Haslam can use a consultant's written plan, and mandate some changes.

Technically, this is "meddling", but not really.  Parcells comes in and in a 3-way meeting says "Mike your players are confused and developing slowly because your system is too complicated.  You have a lot of young players, and don't try to tell me they lack talent.  You need to dumb it down a little and let them play football.  You can phase in more abstract stuff gradually once they have their feet on the ground and are cohesive.  You've got excellent young players collecting splinters because they need a PhD before they can play here.  You need to get them on the field."

And Jimmy can put his two cents in: "That's if you want to stick around."

That's how I would solve this.  The offense has been pretty good overall, despite it's warts, and even the run game has started showing up.

Firing Mike Pettine would be much, much worse than this alternative. Mike is stubborn, but not an egomaniac.  He would listen to the Big Tuna, and not even resent it.

By the way, Mike Pettine should retain input on personnel.  Every head coach should.

Ray just needs to only draft players he has interviewed.

Btw I would have taken Carr over Manziel myself, but that was then.  This is now.

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