Ray Horton Will Do Fine with Browns Talent

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus, here is Ray Horton's Titans depth chart (Middle).  They rated each player.  I went over the first and second string guys, and came up with this:

Elite: 1
Good:1
Average: 6
Below average: 6
Poor: 1
Unknown: 10

Here we see how the Depth chart Ray will inherit here will look:

Elite: 3
Good: 1
Average: 6
Below average: 6
Poor: 1
Unknown: 10.

EDIT: Upon closer inspection, I found Kitchen and Taylor on the Browns depth chart, and figure it was actually from 2014.  I was going to delete this blog, but found many current players on it.

I assume that now Kirksey and Roberts will rate average, Shelton average, Whitner average, Desmond Bryant good, etc. etc.  The Titans may have improved as well, but I doubt that they could have overtaken the Browns in 2015.  I'll go with what's here because I'm too lazy to try to do this research all over again.  I think my points are still valid.  END EDIT

I'm not an expert on the Titans players, but have some problems with PFF's verdicts on some of the Browns.  Donte Whitner (elite) is starting to fade, and will be a year older.  Craig Robertson is simply NOT below average, and Chis Kirksey isn't unknown.

PFF is really good, using analytics extensively for unbiased ratings.  All the unknowns were probably rated as such because they hadn't played a specified number of downs (too small a sample size).  Roberts, I don't know about.  Could be broken tackles or something.  He is on the bubble, at any rate, since Kirksey is a lot like him, and the Browns are sure to draft somebody.

Gipson (good) may leave in free agency.  Poyer (unknown) sucks at cornerback, but we here have seen that when he filled in for Gipson, he was pretty good.  Armonty Bryant was unknown, but we know Ray Horton knows.  Scott Solomon (unknown) could fall on his face after looking great in late '14 and pre-season '15, but I doubt it.

No doubt some counterpart of mine in Tennessee will find similar problems with PFF's estimations of some of their own players...analytics prevents PFF from being a part of the worldwide anti-Browns conspiracy.

So we can use these charts for comparison.  There is no comparison.  Per PFF, the Browns defense was significantly more talented than Titans'.

And yet, Ray Horton's Titans defense ranked ahead of the Browns defense, including in scoring.  Wull wuddya no!

Here are a few more points: If a player is hesitant (uncertain, confused, thinking too hard) he can't play as well.  Analytics on the PFF level doesn't factor that in.  It's hard to quantify, because it's intangible and subjective.  A guy like Jimmy Johnson said the Browns defense lacked talent.  If you ask Paul Kruger, he'll say "bullcrap!".

I repeat that the players and prominant former General Managers (with no loyalty to coaches) are correct:

The overly complicated Ryan defense made the players look worse than they are.

Ray Horton lets his players play.  This is why his defense was better with inferior players.

The Titans and Browns draft 1 and 2.  The Titans may well trade down for more picks (or Something: see earlier entries), and have needs on both sides of the ball.  Some see them drafting a defensive player first, but I doubt it.  Marcus Mariota was sacked unto injury as a rookie, and they can't risk his destruction: they need a left tackle more than anything else.  They won't find him among available free agents.

Conversely the Browns, in reality, have fewer needs on offense than the Titans do, and they have eleven draft picks (so far).  The Browns are likely to upgrade their defense more this off season.

Referring to another earlier entry of mine, the Browns have one of the youngest rosters in the league, with most of it's players having less than three year's experience.  Therefore, OBVIOUSLY, a general upgrade is a already built in, and Horton's simpler scheme will benefit them.

I suppose I sound like an apologist, or like my friend Ray O. Sunshine here, but I pretty much have to.  I could write about all the gloomy bad stuff, but that's being done to death, isn't it?  And the majority of it is incorrect, or downright stupid.  In an atmosphere of doom, gloom, and irrationally negative bias, any objective analyst has little choice.

If everybody was saying Manziel is the savior, that Farmer was the greatest, that Gordon can't miss, that Pryor will go over 1000 yards an 16 tds next year, that Crowell is the new Beast Mode, I would be the black cloud!

Another thing about Ray Horton's defenses:

As I've mentioned, when a defense wears down because an offense can't hold the ball, they give up points late.  They give up more points when punts and turnovers put their backs to the wall repeatedly.

It's most accutely felt by defensive linemen and secondary players, which is why, if you watch any given game, the biggest offensive plays tend to happen in the fourth quarter.

But also, Ray the stats maven will tell you that two or three big plays made the difference, and that otherwise his defense did a good job.

Part of it is his aggressiveness.  Ray is the anti-Crennel.  Because he attacks so much, he is vulnerable to big plays.  It's not because he doesn't know any better.  It's because he wins more than he loses.  He gets more sacks, tackles for losses, and turnovers than he yields big plays.

With Ray Horton, an offense hopes to hold onto the ball long enough to make a big play.  With Romeo Crennel, they just take all the short stuff and march down the field underneath umbrella coverage.  I prefer Ray.

In Arizona, no defense was better than Ray Horton's.  He did have a lot of talent there, but also the Cards had a hell of an offense.

Ray probably won't have as much talent here as on that defense, but will have more than he had in Tennessee.  He also might not have that scary of an offense as in Arizona, but will have more help on that side than he had in Tennessee.

Now, all you have to do is add all that up.