Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Analytical Corrections (get it? Analytic?)

Some of the hand-wringing comments I've read are starting to bug me, and I have to call for some common sense.

First, Sashi Brown having the final say on the roster:

To many, this conjures visions of Sashi telling the Head Coach his business.  That's not what this means.

All it means is that if the Head Coach says he wants Peyton Manning or Sam Bradford, Sashi can say no.  Because that would be really stupid.

Brown was chosen for his position because he's a natural arbitrator.  He knows he's not a personnel guy and isn't insecure about it.  His involvement in personnel will be signing them, setting the budget, and things of that nature.

He is here to prevent a Chip Kelly from throwing away money and a massive chunk of his salary cap on a quarterback who has spent more time on IR than on the football field or, for that matter, somebody else from guaranteeing a second-tier wide receiver top tier money.

Jimmy Haslam would have been perceived as a meddler (not that he won't be called that no matter what anyway) had he vetoed anything.

Now he's put a designated adult in the room to apply common sense and avoid such colossal blunders.

It doesn't take a "football guy" to know stupid when you see it.  (PS if Bowe had caught 50 passes for 750 yards this still would have been stupid.)

The Coaches who interview will meet Sashi and read the job descriptions.  They will understand that they answer only to Haslam himself.  That means if there's a conflict, they can go directly to the top.  This is a selling point to the new coach.

All that coach needs to understand is that Sashi Brown won't be making draft picks or targeting free agents.  That Brown is and will remain a beancounter and lawyer.

Potential head-bumping could come into play when the Coach says "no matter what" and Sashi says "for the right price."

What about analytics vs Old School?  That's a more legitimate question.  

John Gruden has suggested that it could cause a lot of conflict.  It's true, depending on the coach.  Sean Payton is out of the running, but he lectured about football analytics at MIT.  For him, having DePodesta on board would probably have made the job more attractive.  For Gruden, not so much.  

The beauty of it is, DePodesta himself will be part of the selection process, and the next coach's willingness to buy in will be an up-front condition.

I hope Adam Gase likes analytics.  I opposed his hiring a few years ago, but after doing more research on him since (with quarterbacks other than Peyton Manning), I now like him--at least as an offensive coordinator.

Chip Kelly would be fine with analytics, but he would see no GM in place and want the job himself.  No.  No.  No.

Haslam has, with these two moves, defined who he wants.  A guy who believes in advanced analytics.

Paul DePodesta is probably already analytizationalizing lesser-known candidates.  The Browns, after all, are a hard sell...

But there are selling points.  One, no GM in place.  He can pick his own guy.  Two, DePodesta himself--a valuable resource (blockheads need not apply).  Sashi Brown himself, who is popular with agents and takes care of business.  The second overall draft pick.  Barnidge, Thomas, Haden, Duke, Crowell, Bitonio, and a bunch of other guys any coach would want.

The fact that Jimmy Haslam publicly said "multi-year project", meaning they'll get longer than two years unless they go in reverse like the last two coaches did.

It will be tough, but Chief Black Cloud and the permabashers make it sound like Siberia.

Really the only warts here are being in the AFC North, the weather, and the Haslam regime's history of firing coaches quickly.  

This 3-13 record is being cast as a negative, but it's not.  A coach hoping for time to build something great likes this.  All he has to do in year one is tie or beat that record.  Then if he goes 7-9 or 8-8 in season two, he's a hero and gets his third year.  Three drafts.

3-13 is especially not a negative when the coach sees the players who are already here.  Including Jimmy Johnson (yeah I said it) those who say the Browns lack talent are full of crap.  I'm sick of hearing it.  The biggest turnaround next season will be on defense because of the talent that's already here.  All the new DC has to do is let them freaking play.

Sashi, Paul, and the search firm just have to find the right head coach.  One who will use analytics, and who is smart enough to adapt his system to his players.

Mary Kay Cabbott doesn't get this.  She said Adam Gase seems to favor tall strong-armed quarterbacks, so he wouldn't like Manziel.  Gase doesn't necessarily favor anybody.  Those are just the guys he got stuck with.

Every coach has his own system in mind, and wants to run it.  He'll ask for players who fit well into it.  But the really good coaches adapt to the talent they have at first.

On an ongoing basis, Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin, and Pete Carroll have been doing this for years.

Making the most of the players they have.  Paul DePodesta can find guys like this.  And after Mike Pettine, I guarantee you that Jimmy Haslam has made it clear that this is who he wants.

Oh, and I forgot: The next coach will inherit Terrell Pryor AND Josh Gordon.  




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