On the seventh day (or something), they rested.
One could assume that the Browns coaching search has paused because they have to wait for the playoff coaches, but other than Matt Patricia and Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott, who they've already interviewed, I suspect the first phase is complete.
Analytics says so. If their three top choices are among those they've interviewed, odds are they'll get one of them. If not, more time and candidates won't help: they've made their list. They've checked it twice.
If the Browns coachminers are as smart as my humble self, their list is, in order, Hue Jackson, Matt Patricia, and Sean McDermott.
McDermott, who I haven't discussed yet, had more talent to work with than Patricia, but what he did with it was just amazing.
He's not called a genius, like Patricia, but his up-and-down past is actually a plus. He persisted, learned, evolved, and grew. He was exposed to a number of coaches and schemes. He may well be the hardest-working of all the candidates.
Perhaps most importantly, he's from the Andy Reid coaching tree.
Andy Reid proteges have a good track history as head coaches.
I still prefer Patricia the genius, or Jackson the qualified, but McDermott would have a good chance to succeed.
Hue Jackson does appear to be the top target. I don't believe the offer of control over the roster was really new. More likely, it was a clarification.
As I've blogged, much like Johnny Manziel's expired plates, the phrase "final control of the roster" is a molehill and not a mountain.
Predictably, Jackson was told that he would have as much control over the roster as most other coaches (who likewise have a strong say in choosing his own personnel guy) have.
...as long as you don't try to guarantee Dwayne Bowe 16 million bucks. As long as you don't try to trade for Peyton Manning. As long as what you do makes business sense.
Any candidate who can't accept this is unreasonable.
I failed to mention a few things about Hue Jackson:
1: He is willing to run the Wildcat occasionally, and would (believe it or not) actually allow Pryor to pass the ball out of it. Honest!
2: Joe Thomas would not ask to be traded, and Mitchell Schwartze and other potential free agents would consider sticking around.
Possibly even Alex Mack, although I doubt it. He might be offered more than Joe Thomas, and Sashi can't do that.
This is another reason for Sashi Brown having the final say:
Football people know talent. Sashi (with DePodesta helping) knows numbers. The coach might say "keep him at all costs". You can't do that.
As Pat Kirwan explains often, you need budgets for each position group. And you can't have two guys gobbling up 70% of that budget. You can't have three holes in your offensive line and no depth.
The team that offers Alex Mack top five left tackle money will regret it. They'll either have to increase their offensive line budget at the expense of other positions, or have a weak overall offensive line. Then what if Mister Brinks truck gets hurt? You're dead.
Overpaying players causes dissension as well. Other players want theirs, too.
"Football people" aren't always good at the business side of it. Look what Chip Kelly did to his roster. One of the reasons he was fired was that he signed Bradford in the last year of his massively overinflated contract, and he's now a free agent. He surrendered a draft pick, as well. Good coach. Horrible GM.
Right here in Cleveland, signing a 30 year old Dwayne Bowe wasn't necessarily stupid, but that contract...that just might be the worst deal in the history of the NFL. Sometimes, you can't trust your front office "football people" either.
All Hue Jackson needs to know is that DePodesta won't be overriding his draft picks, and Brown won't have anything whatsoever to do with choosing players.
It's a mole hill. If Hue goes elsewhere, this won't be the reason.
I believe Jackson already has, or shortly will have, an offer with conditions in writing.
Dear Hue Jackson: Don't read our media, and especially don't read reader comments.
If you come here, you can pick your own personnel guy and can keep Defilipo to insure some offensive continuity if you want.
You inherit most of the defense you know is talented, and I know Jimmy will help you try to poach Paul Guenther from the Bengals if you want (Mike Brown won't outbid him).
You have Josh McCown and the second overall pick, you have Pryor and Gordon, you have a 3-13 baseline, and "several years".
You know the AFC North, the cost of living is low, you can visit your friends in Cincinnati, and have a great support system already in place.
Why would you go to the overrated Giants just because of Eli and Beckham? Ever drive around there? I'll trade you one Beckham for Gordon and Pryor and one Eli for Goff and McCown. And Goff is soft clay you can mold and keep for a decade or more.
They draft lower. The bar will be set higher. Remember when Campbell went down in Oakland? Well?
San Fran? This is a mess? Plus they might put an openly gay player quota on you. And the State will want all your money.
Come to Cleveland, Hue. Ask Terelle and Andrew.
On Guenther: "Why would he ever come here as a defensive coordinator?"
Actually almost a dumb question. First is money.
Second, the situation. He can't prove anything in Cincinnati. He has little room to improve that defense, and he will probably lose more talent than he gains this coming off season. His chances of becoming a head coach after next season are more likely to get worse than to get better if he remains in Cincinnati, especially with the offense having lost Hue Jackson.
Coming to Cleveland, he'd take over one of the worst defenses in all of football, and has nowhere to go but up.
Jimmy Johnson (who I've determined just likes Mike Pettine and plays politics to defend him) is full of crap in re the talent here.
He has the ideal personnel to run his seven man front and a decent secondary. All he has to do is bring this defense up to the middle of the pack in 2016 and the clueless owners will be knocking down his door with head coaching offers.
T H I N K with your B R A I N.
About the roster:
With a new coach coming in, I looked over the roster for tradeable players. Other than Joe Thomas, there aren't any of consequence.
The growth of the young microbes and the expected re-signing of Travis Benjamin could make Andrew Hawkins and his cap-freindly salary a possibility, but his injuries probably take him off the table.
I love the guy, too, so that's fine with me. Benjamin is scary, but Hawk is really reliable when healthy.
The healthy return of Brian Hartline, the sober return of Josh Gordon, and the return of the inevitably, predictably improved Terrelle Pryor should move both of these microbes back to the slot where they belong.
By the way, I just described a really good five-man receiving corps DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
I color Dwayne Bowe gone. I doubt that Sashi Brown can fathom retaining a non-producing asset over a productive one any better than I do, regardless of what it costs.
The roster will take some hits. Hue Jackson is a proven winner and a players coach, so hiring him would improve the chances of retaining guys like Mitchell Schwartze and Big Joe himself.
Tashaun Gipson, if he doesn't want out, has lost his leverage. His so-so season was unusual, but the time he lost to injury was not.
Dansby and Whitner are too old to command all that much, and could be retained. Still, Alex Mack probably made his mind up a long time ago, and some idiot will offer him more than Joe Thomas makes.
There will be turnover, though. Each of the players I mentioned are as likely to leave as not.
Bringing us back to Joe Thomas.
Somebody who doesn't comprehend analytics suggested that the numbers would dictate trading a guy with three years left.
Actually, analytics will tell you that it's critical to protect an inexperienced quarterback's blind side, the learning curve at left tackle is long and shallow, the odds against finding a really good one outside of the first round are remote, and it takes three years for most quarterbacks to really hit their strides.
So analytics actually say keep Joe Thomas.
On the other side of it, Joe Thomas could be the hottest commodity in football. He could be worth two first round picks, and maybe more.
That's two players (one a left tackle, probably) with their whole careers ahead of them, and for less money than Joe.
One could argue that if you're starting over, you might as well load up as much as possible. It's a valid point.
Now, if you just blurped out that the Browns would just blow the picks anyway, you don't think much, do you?
Even if you're a Farmer basher, he's gone. Heckert is gone. Nothing past regimes have done have anything to do with the new guys.
If there was a brain-eating virus in Berea, they would have found it by now, Black Cloud.
Analytics would also tell you that it's highly unlikely that Joe Thomas's replacement would ever be as good as he is, that he would be below average at first, and possibly throughout his rookie season, and that it's (around) 40% possible that he'll end up at guard or right tackle.
Correct application of analytics by people who know wtf they are also say that Mitchell Schwartze is much less likely to stay if Joe Thomas leaves.
Food for thought. The new coach will have his say. I lean towards keeping Joe here, if he wants to stay.
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