Wednesday, January 20, 2016

What Browns Coaches REALLY Have to Work With

I'll begin with this article by Jason Garcia.  He lists seven building blocks for the new Cleveland Browns.  The writer who's link I followed to Jason's article called a couple of these picks "a stretch".  

Jason lists Barnidge, Gordon, Shelton, Duke Johnson, Orchard, Bitonio, and Ifo Ekpre-Olamu (heretofore "Ifo" for obvious reasons).

Naturally, the other writer called Gordon and Ifo stretches.  I won't beat the Gordon drum again, but you can refer to my earlier entries to see why this is a dumb opinion.

As for Ifo, he was an elite prospect prior to his injury.  When he is healthy, he will be an elite cornerback again.  Had he been healthy, he was projected as a first round pick.  Where is the stretch?

Jason named seven guys, but here are some guys he didn't dare mention because of snarky negative writers who would laugh at him:

8: Travis Benjamin.  He's not a centerpiece, but is a major contributor who will probably be re-signed long term.

9: Cameron Erving: Many young players look bad as rookies.  Only in Cleveland do we bury them alive for it.

I repeat that he played okay in his two MOST RECENT starts at right guard, and will now have a full off season to pump iron and work on his feet.  Ask LeCharles Barkley (what does he know, right?)

Cam was the highest-rated center in the last draft, and called by some scouts the best offensive lineman overall.  There were reasons for that.  Put down the shovel.  Now step away from it.

10: Isaiah Crowell: Because he can't run over two defensive linemen at ounce, or jump over them, or teleport, his stock among the fan base has declined a lot.

Crowell only went undrafted due to disciplinary problems he had in college, but was called by some the best pure runner his draft class, and by everybody a major running back talent and bellcow back prospect.

This hasn't changed.  Like all running backs, including Adrian Peterson, he does need just a little help (not only from his blockers, but from his coaches, who for most of last season ran him to the same side every single time.)

It's easy to sit back and point at unfiltered statistics.  But skill players do not operate in a vacuum.  Crowell is an excellent player.

11: Xavier Cooper: Since this rookie didn't rotate in much or make any splash plays, he has suffered the fate of every such Browns rookie, and ceased to exist.

Cooper shared the field with Desmond Bryant, Randy Starks, John Hughes, and Jamie Meder.  He was still learning the overly-complicated Pettine defense.

Cooper has rare first-step quickness.  The last time Browns fans have seen that was when Micheal Dean Perry played.  He will continue to develop, and be allowed to use that talent if Ray Horton is hired.

12: Christian Kirksey: He hasn't made big splash plays, so he shares Cooper's fate.  All he does is deflect passes and make tackles all over the field.  He can blitze, but was rarely allowed to.  He also shared time with Roberts, who is a similar player.

When you're talking about building blocks, it's okay to list some lunchpail guys, okay?

I'm tempted to list Ibraheim Campbell too, because he played very well in his limited reps as a rookie.  He humiliated opposing quarterbacks and receivers on Senior Bowl week, proving his unheralded ability to cover.

In fact, make him number 13.  

You can disagree with me, but only if you want to be wrong.  Assuming you are rational, that's thirteen building blocks, and doesn't sound like a total teardown to me.  I mean, there are only 22 starters on a team.

Jason and I both confined ourselves to first and second year players (except Benjamin) who should be here a long time.  They are the foundation.

I need to gleefully mention here that everybody on this list except Travis is a Farmer acquisition.  After next season, you'll be choking on it.

This foundation should pick up some more bricks in the upcoming draft, including a quarterback.  Barring a trade, the Browns draft near the top of each round, which is significant.

Analytics ignores rounds, and will use overall positions to more accurately reflect this.  What's really significant is the fact that after the first round, the draft closes and everybody goes home for the night.  Nowadays, the talent evaluators get to delete all the players who were drafted, do additional research on those who are left, and treat round two the same as round one.  Oh, and negotiate trades.

Because of that, the Browns at number two have a vastly improved chance of scoring a winner (or a trade).

Day three is similar.  Drafting atop the fourth round, however, gives them an excellent chance of getting a "third round talent", as many players always slide below their projected rounds.  

It's not always injuries or disciplinary issues either.  Just as often, it's the number of draftable players at their position, how the players skills don't fit specific schemes, or if they're a hybrid player with "no position".

The quarterback recently switched to wide receiver.  The big slow running back who might play fullback.  The small linebacker who might play safety.  The quarterback with twelve starts.

The Browns might have three additional picks in the fourth round, too (compensatory picks--thanks to Ray Farmer haha).

This is where analytics come in.  Defensive linemen whose "arms are too short".  A 285 lb blocking tight end who could play tackle.  A 230 lb wide receiver who could play tight end or h-back.  A running back from a passing offense, or tight end from a running offense.  Guys who weren't used much due to scheme or plain old dumbassitude.

Some examples: Analytics discredited the "short arm" theory for defensive tackles, but you'll hear Gil Brandt talking about it again this year.  40 times have little meaning for offensive linemen, but ten yard times mean a lot.  The "old school" guys will avoid 5.4 40s and short arms.  The analytical guys will stand under them with a big net.

This is why the majority of you commenters are dumb.  You think there's nothing here because Ray Farmer acquired them.  You think the defense sucked because there wasn't enough talent.  You already think DePodesta sucks before he's got his key to the men's room, and whoever Hue Jackson brings in sucks before you even know who he is!

You think Hue himself will fail because the guys before him failed.  You think the hottest head coach candidate in the NFL is exactly the same as the unheralded third to sixth choice coordinators who preceded him.

You think Jimmy Haslam can't learn anything.  You spew the same depressing, oppressive doom and gloom crap no matter what he does or who he hires.  For that matter, you think he's Randy Lerner!

You want me to curb my enthusiasm.  How very mature and wise you are, oh great sage!  

Where do you live?  Some in Oblivia.  Others in Myopia.  Wereallgonnadieville?

How is the weather there?  Overcast, right?

I hope I make it to the NFL Draft.  I hope I'm around to see you all talking about how the Browns lucked out for most of the season, then predicting the big let-down, then finally shutting up.

Don't get me wrong.  The Steelers and Bengals aren't going anywhere.  The Browns might lose nine games.  Just not thirteen.  

All you have to do is take off your excrement colored glasses and look at what has just happened and is happening now.  Give this guy you never met before a freaking chance!  Look at what's in front of you now.

Ah, the hell with it.  You're not hearing me.  You stuck the stuff on your glasses in your ears.

Sorry for the rant.  Low tolerance for superstitious irrationality.



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