It just figures that Moats fell for the geezerly and decrepid Steeler mystique left over from the olden days. Probably, Ray Farmer didn't want any players who were dumb enough to assume that past performance always guarantees future results.
It sucks, because Moats would have looked awesome next to Dansby.
However, Paul McQuistan is a definite upgrade at right guard. Luavao was bad in a man scheme and would have been atrocious in a zone scheme.
McQuistan isn't a great player, but is a pretty solid one who will look better than Luavao.
Ideally, this is a depth pick, and Faulk or somebody else now on the roster--or else a draft pick--can push him into a reserve role where he can back up everything except center.
Browns fans have a really hard time with shades of gray, so I need to repeat myself here: Between the Hall of Fame and stocking shelves, there is a place where an NFL player is better than half the other players at his position, and worse than half the players.
This is called "average". Average players don't suck DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
At right guard, McQuistan might be a little above average, so this was a good move. Only in Cleveland do we think anybody not in the Pro Bowl has to be replaced.
I still think Chris Faulk, now healthy and with some NFL training under his belt, might well win one of the starting guard spots. For most of you, this guy has fallen off the map, but his massive potential was a consensus among the pros who know offensive linemen best. If he works hard, he will sooner or later become a star. It might be sooner.
As for Moats, there are less expensive, more athletic ILB's in this draft ready to come right in and start next to Dansby.
And maybe--just maybe--we sill see Chris Faulk blasting Moats into the bleachers.
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Trading Places
I was pretty stunned by Tony Grossi's latest mock draft. At four overall, he has the Browns drafting Greg Robinson (who would be an instastarter at guard, and projects to mutate into a franchise left tackle).
Drafting an offensive lineman here wasn't the stunning part. The stunning part was that he had Watkins still on the board, and being drafted by the grateful Oakland Raiders right behind them.
After recovering my senses and thinking about it for awhile, I can't knock this projection too hard.
As I've repeated ad nauseum, Watkins fulfills a fantasy, but not a need. The need at WR is for a second wide-out to complement Josh Gordon--not for a second number one wide reciever.
On the other hand, guard is a need. One of the Browns youngsters could emerge as a good or even excellent zone guard in his second season, but the odds are against two of them doing so. It just rarely works that way.
Robinson has the requisite athleticism and mobility, and is also a road grader. He could play either right or left guard. If Mitchell Schwartze had not made rapid and sustained progress in the later majority of his second year in the NFL to become one of the better right tackles in the league ARE YOU LISTENING OBLIVIA, we could put him at right tackle, too.
This is also a move with an eye to an eventual future: This is Joe Thomas's heir apparent.
This move isn't sexy, but would have an even bigger impact than Watkins would. I know that sounds crazy, but that's because we become starstruck big play addicts, and we know that that's who Watkins is.
But even the best wide recievers rarely catch more than 6-8 passes in a game. In Shanahan's offense, this is especially true. This team will use Cameron like a wide reciever and three reciever sets a lot.
Kyle will try to run the ball more than half the time, as well. He's the exception in today's NFL.
Also, while Watkins runs every pattern quite well, the slants and crosses Kyle will use a lot of aren't his forte. He's also a good run-after catch guy, but not like Gordon or other wide-outs in this draft (like Mike Evans).
Meanwhile, Robinson in a zone system would blast HUGE, gaping holes for Ben Tate, and consistently help provide Hoyer with a pocket to step into.
Especially if one of the younger guys emerges, or they can draft another top guard in the third or fourth round (not uncommon, by the way), the Browns could come out with one of the best (not better, but best) offensive lines in the NFL.
I'm not advocating drafting Greg Robinson fourth overall. Just defending Tony, and saying it makes sense.
I still favor trading down. Not "if possible", because it will be possible. There will be offers. Other teams need Watkins, a quarterback, or even this player more than the Browns do, and will be willing to pay for it.
The Browns still have several real needs. Wide reciever, guard, inside linebacker, cornerback, fullback. Khalil Mack, Bortles and/or Bridgewater, or even Watkins or Robinson could still be there after a modest trade-down. Even going down further, there's just a ton of talent almost everywhere in this draft.
Charlie Casserly suggested trading picks onto the future. He was talking about peddling the second first-rounder, but I say why not the first pick? If Farmer does take a quarterback later, he's taking a risk with both that player and with the not-yet-vetted Brian Hoyer. Next year's quarterbacks so far look better than this year's, and if the Browns need to make a move, they'll need ammo.
I like Tony's pick of Ryan Shazier at 26...provided the Browns haven't already traded down and grabbed Khalil Mack. CJ Mosely can take on and shed blockers better, but Shazier is faster, and may have a higher upside.
If they draft Khalil Mack, he'd play where Jackson played. If it's a guy like Shazier, he'll replace Robertson as the run-and-hit guy.
Just imagine one or two trade-downs, maybe even five slots to ninth overall.
Going by the value chart, which is a rough guide (so stipulated), 4 is worth 1800 points. 9 is worth 1350. Based on the chart, the trade would net that team's second round pick. Leverage could command more, or they could even do something wild, like take a third rounder this year and a third next season.
We can speculate a lot on what the Browns could then do with 26 and two high second rounders, but who might be there at 9?
Derrick Carr is one (and I don't believe he lasts to 26). Khalil Mack is a longshot but possible. Jake Matthews, maybe. The best tight end, Ebron. CJ Mosely. Maybe not Bortles, but Bridgewater maybe. Barr. Evans. Zack Martin. Giving Ray Farmer the benefit of the doubt, any of these players would make a big difference.
So would the player they'd get in the trade in the second round. That could be Xavier Su'a-Filo (guard), Odell Beckham, CB Antone Exum or Bradley Roby--another starter and another upgrade.
Ray Farmer has made it clear: There's no more rebuilding going on here. He's going after the division right tf NOW, and he'll want to fill every remaining hole on this team. That means more players, rather than one who is a little better than the guy he gets a whole freaking round lower.
MATH 101.
Drafting an offensive lineman here wasn't the stunning part. The stunning part was that he had Watkins still on the board, and being drafted by the grateful Oakland Raiders right behind them.
After recovering my senses and thinking about it for awhile, I can't knock this projection too hard.
As I've repeated ad nauseum, Watkins fulfills a fantasy, but not a need. The need at WR is for a second wide-out to complement Josh Gordon--not for a second number one wide reciever.
On the other hand, guard is a need. One of the Browns youngsters could emerge as a good or even excellent zone guard in his second season, but the odds are against two of them doing so. It just rarely works that way.
Robinson has the requisite athleticism and mobility, and is also a road grader. He could play either right or left guard. If Mitchell Schwartze had not made rapid and sustained progress in the later majority of his second year in the NFL to become one of the better right tackles in the league ARE YOU LISTENING OBLIVIA, we could put him at right tackle, too.
This is also a move with an eye to an eventual future: This is Joe Thomas's heir apparent.
This move isn't sexy, but would have an even bigger impact than Watkins would. I know that sounds crazy, but that's because we become starstruck big play addicts, and we know that that's who Watkins is.
But even the best wide recievers rarely catch more than 6-8 passes in a game. In Shanahan's offense, this is especially true. This team will use Cameron like a wide reciever and three reciever sets a lot.
Kyle will try to run the ball more than half the time, as well. He's the exception in today's NFL.
Also, while Watkins runs every pattern quite well, the slants and crosses Kyle will use a lot of aren't his forte. He's also a good run-after catch guy, but not like Gordon or other wide-outs in this draft (like Mike Evans).
Meanwhile, Robinson in a zone system would blast HUGE, gaping holes for Ben Tate, and consistently help provide Hoyer with a pocket to step into.
Especially if one of the younger guys emerges, or they can draft another top guard in the third or fourth round (not uncommon, by the way), the Browns could come out with one of the best (not better, but best) offensive lines in the NFL.
I'm not advocating drafting Greg Robinson fourth overall. Just defending Tony, and saying it makes sense.
I still favor trading down. Not "if possible", because it will be possible. There will be offers. Other teams need Watkins, a quarterback, or even this player more than the Browns do, and will be willing to pay for it.
The Browns still have several real needs. Wide reciever, guard, inside linebacker, cornerback, fullback. Khalil Mack, Bortles and/or Bridgewater, or even Watkins or Robinson could still be there after a modest trade-down. Even going down further, there's just a ton of talent almost everywhere in this draft.
Charlie Casserly suggested trading picks onto the future. He was talking about peddling the second first-rounder, but I say why not the first pick? If Farmer does take a quarterback later, he's taking a risk with both that player and with the not-yet-vetted Brian Hoyer. Next year's quarterbacks so far look better than this year's, and if the Browns need to make a move, they'll need ammo.
I like Tony's pick of Ryan Shazier at 26...provided the Browns haven't already traded down and grabbed Khalil Mack. CJ Mosely can take on and shed blockers better, but Shazier is faster, and may have a higher upside.
If they draft Khalil Mack, he'd play where Jackson played. If it's a guy like Shazier, he'll replace Robertson as the run-and-hit guy.
Just imagine one or two trade-downs, maybe even five slots to ninth overall.
Going by the value chart, which is a rough guide (so stipulated), 4 is worth 1800 points. 9 is worth 1350. Based on the chart, the trade would net that team's second round pick. Leverage could command more, or they could even do something wild, like take a third rounder this year and a third next season.
We can speculate a lot on what the Browns could then do with 26 and two high second rounders, but who might be there at 9?
Derrick Carr is one (and I don't believe he lasts to 26). Khalil Mack is a longshot but possible. Jake Matthews, maybe. The best tight end, Ebron. CJ Mosely. Maybe not Bortles, but Bridgewater maybe. Barr. Evans. Zack Martin. Giving Ray Farmer the benefit of the doubt, any of these players would make a big difference.
So would the player they'd get in the trade in the second round. That could be Xavier Su'a-Filo (guard), Odell Beckham, CB Antone Exum or Bradley Roby--another starter and another upgrade.
Ray Farmer has made it clear: There's no more rebuilding going on here. He's going after the division right tf NOW, and he'll want to fill every remaining hole on this team. That means more players, rather than one who is a little better than the guy he gets a whole freaking round lower.
MATH 101.
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Tate and Hawkins
I don't know where this "Benjamin will never be much of a reciever" crap started, but it's not accurate. Benji hadn't been used much in college, and needed some polishing on his routes. But he has the agility and the hands to become a better reciever.
I use the word "better" deliberately, because he's already a decent reciever.
He hasn't been tried much in the slot yet, and many feel this is where he belongs. Trouble is, his injury takes over eighteen months to fully heal. He can play well ahead of that, but won't be 100% for awhile longer.
Unlike Hoyer, who is a quarterback, Benji must make hard cuts and drive out of them, so ok, because of the injury, they can't use him a whole lot at reciever for awhile longer.
Enter Hawkins, who is very similar to Benjamin, only more experienced, refined, and healthy.
The Bengals are pretty loaded at wide reciever, which, along with his injury, is why Baby Hawk wasn't used that much. On this roster, the slot position is all his to lose.
This is no possession guy, but one who can take it home from anywhere at any time. I'm sure Pettine loves that. Of course, some will still say that the Browns offense doesn't have enough playmakers. They'll keep saying that til somebody hits them with a two by four and resets them.
While I myself talked up Benjamin and Josh Cooper, I love this signing as a big upgrade. Kyle won't have to wait for him to develop, and the slot need not be limited to a checkdown chain-mover. Hawkins gets open, has good hands, AND can take it to the house. The Browns' offense just got more explosive.
Ben Tate isn't a big-play guy, but will move the chains and gash defenses.
Some, including Terry Pluto, say that the Browns still need more running backs. They may well draft one lower down, but they don't need one. You'll see that next season whenever Tate takes a breather or gets hurt, and is replaced by one of the guys already here.
I'm so far disappointed that more guys weren't signed, but I understand it's a two-way street. You can be sure that Farmer invited a bunch more players to come and negotiate than were written about.
I don't take the whole Bridgewater Pro Day thing that seriously, as the Browns may already have their minds made up about quarterback, it could still be Bridgewater, and they could be masking it to discourage somebody else from trading ahead of them to get him.
And his bad pro day doesn't negate what he did throughout his college career. Sharp analysts have taken a comment about his mechanics by Mike Mayock, and linked it to comments by Shanahan about "base" (ie the QB generating power from his hips), and all but discarded Teddy as a candidate.
Not at all. Bridgewater has fewer mechanical issues than any QB in this draft, and those which showed up in his Pro Day are easily corrected. What they can't do so much about is intelligence, accuracy, and heart. These, he has.
But then I more and more think that they actually do think they're smarter than almost everybody else, and are willing to take a risk with Hoyer--at least for a season.
With ten draft picks--especially if they do another Julio Jones trade and add a second rounder and more to it, Hoyer will be up to his eyeballs in targets, bodyguards, second and shorts, field position, and leads so that he won't have to be as good as the guy who showed him the ropes (Tom Brady).
...Ok and maybe Carr, Murray, or whatever too.
I use the word "better" deliberately, because he's already a decent reciever.
He hasn't been tried much in the slot yet, and many feel this is where he belongs. Trouble is, his injury takes over eighteen months to fully heal. He can play well ahead of that, but won't be 100% for awhile longer.
Unlike Hoyer, who is a quarterback, Benji must make hard cuts and drive out of them, so ok, because of the injury, they can't use him a whole lot at reciever for awhile longer.
Enter Hawkins, who is very similar to Benjamin, only more experienced, refined, and healthy.
The Bengals are pretty loaded at wide reciever, which, along with his injury, is why Baby Hawk wasn't used that much. On this roster, the slot position is all his to lose.
This is no possession guy, but one who can take it home from anywhere at any time. I'm sure Pettine loves that. Of course, some will still say that the Browns offense doesn't have enough playmakers. They'll keep saying that til somebody hits them with a two by four and resets them.
While I myself talked up Benjamin and Josh Cooper, I love this signing as a big upgrade. Kyle won't have to wait for him to develop, and the slot need not be limited to a checkdown chain-mover. Hawkins gets open, has good hands, AND can take it to the house. The Browns' offense just got more explosive.
Ben Tate isn't a big-play guy, but will move the chains and gash defenses.
Some, including Terry Pluto, say that the Browns still need more running backs. They may well draft one lower down, but they don't need one. You'll see that next season whenever Tate takes a breather or gets hurt, and is replaced by one of the guys already here.
I'm so far disappointed that more guys weren't signed, but I understand it's a two-way street. You can be sure that Farmer invited a bunch more players to come and negotiate than were written about.
I don't take the whole Bridgewater Pro Day thing that seriously, as the Browns may already have their minds made up about quarterback, it could still be Bridgewater, and they could be masking it to discourage somebody else from trading ahead of them to get him.
And his bad pro day doesn't negate what he did throughout his college career. Sharp analysts have taken a comment about his mechanics by Mike Mayock, and linked it to comments by Shanahan about "base" (ie the QB generating power from his hips), and all but discarded Teddy as a candidate.
Not at all. Bridgewater has fewer mechanical issues than any QB in this draft, and those which showed up in his Pro Day are easily corrected. What they can't do so much about is intelligence, accuracy, and heart. These, he has.
But then I more and more think that they actually do think they're smarter than almost everybody else, and are willing to take a risk with Hoyer--at least for a season.
With ten draft picks--especially if they do another Julio Jones trade and add a second rounder and more to it, Hoyer will be up to his eyeballs in targets, bodyguards, second and shorts, field position, and leads so that he won't have to be as good as the guy who showed him the ropes (Tom Brady).
...Ok and maybe Carr, Murray, or whatever too.
Saturday, March 15, 2014
More Breaking the Bank News
I agree with Andrew Fisher of Rant Sports that the way talks between Ben Tate and the Browns have dragged out so long might well be because Tate is asking for too much money.
Andrew is another guy who is desperately overusing the word "desperate" in his deperation to make an impression. The Browns are not desperately in need of a franchise back.
But I digress: Bill Polian and others aren't that thrilled by Ben. They describe a good, physical back who, because of his physical running style, will probably have a short career with periodic injuries.
I do think that Bill is selling the guy a little short in regards to what he could accomplish in this particular system. Here, he wouldn't be trying to ram the ball forward between the tackles against stacked fronts. Safeties wouldn't be knifing in at full speed going for his legs, and big unblocked linebackers wouldn't be meeting him in the hole.
In Shanahan's system, the whole idea is to force defenders out of position to create almost random gaps, trusting the back's natural instincts to choose the most daylight and cut into it hard and decisively.
Defenders who seek penetration to stop it can blow it up or reroute the back laterally, but they more often miss than hit, taking themselves out of the play and freeing blockers to target defenders downfield. Gap integrity isn't even a realistic consideration, since the blockers and front seven are moving sideways.
Because they are moving sideways, their feet are not planted, they're not as well balanced as they want to be, and when the back does make his cut (always against this grain), some have to try to reverse their momentum (pointless if there's a guard following you) and dive at him.
Even the guy who is in position to make a play is also moving sideways, and has to to try to stop dead--and almost always there's a blocker there to say "Wait where are you going? Move along move along!"; using his own momentum to push him out of the way.
A good disciplined strong safety or backside linebacker can sometimes be there to intercept the back, but this happens less often than you'd think.
The net result is the running back in this system faces fewer violent collisions than backs in man-blocking sytems. Most aspiring tacklers are diving and trying to arm-tackle him, or are smaller guys pursuing him.
Tate would fit in here quite well because he's hard to take down, and quite strong.
However, all of what I just described could make Baker or (especially) Obgannaya, or Gerhardt or half a dozen backs in this draft class, for that matter, look really good too.
Ben and his agent should be smart enough to see that here he has the opportunity not only to get ungodly numbers, but also to prolong his career. Instead, apparently, they're crawling around under Jimmy's desk looking for spare change.
If Ben Tate is that dumb, who needs him?
I personally have high hopes for Rodney Obgannayafield. His only problem has been ball security. His 5-plus yard per carry are no mirage. He's big and strong, with underrated speed.
It's still quite possible that Tate will see the light and only get overpaid a little to sign here. The Browns are doing a great job of investing their cap surplus into front-loaded contracts that other teams can't match.
Players will always prefer as much guaranteed money up front as they can get, and will often turn down even better overall offers for this. This also mimimizes the cap hit if players are released after one season, which is why it's downright dumb to say that Dansby was overpaid.
It even makes any player more tradeable, because the trade partner after the first season could be getting a low-risk bargain.
Do the MATH.
Andrew is another guy who is desperately overusing the word "desperate" in his deperation to make an impression. The Browns are not desperately in need of a franchise back.
But I digress: Bill Polian and others aren't that thrilled by Ben. They describe a good, physical back who, because of his physical running style, will probably have a short career with periodic injuries.
I do think that Bill is selling the guy a little short in regards to what he could accomplish in this particular system. Here, he wouldn't be trying to ram the ball forward between the tackles against stacked fronts. Safeties wouldn't be knifing in at full speed going for his legs, and big unblocked linebackers wouldn't be meeting him in the hole.
In Shanahan's system, the whole idea is to force defenders out of position to create almost random gaps, trusting the back's natural instincts to choose the most daylight and cut into it hard and decisively.
Defenders who seek penetration to stop it can blow it up or reroute the back laterally, but they more often miss than hit, taking themselves out of the play and freeing blockers to target defenders downfield. Gap integrity isn't even a realistic consideration, since the blockers and front seven are moving sideways.
Because they are moving sideways, their feet are not planted, they're not as well balanced as they want to be, and when the back does make his cut (always against this grain), some have to try to reverse their momentum (pointless if there's a guard following you) and dive at him.
Even the guy who is in position to make a play is also moving sideways, and has to to try to stop dead--and almost always there's a blocker there to say "Wait where are you going? Move along move along!"; using his own momentum to push him out of the way.
A good disciplined strong safety or backside linebacker can sometimes be there to intercept the back, but this happens less often than you'd think.
The net result is the running back in this system faces fewer violent collisions than backs in man-blocking sytems. Most aspiring tacklers are diving and trying to arm-tackle him, or are smaller guys pursuing him.
Tate would fit in here quite well because he's hard to take down, and quite strong.
However, all of what I just described could make Baker or (especially) Obgannaya, or Gerhardt or half a dozen backs in this draft class, for that matter, look really good too.
Ben and his agent should be smart enough to see that here he has the opportunity not only to get ungodly numbers, but also to prolong his career. Instead, apparently, they're crawling around under Jimmy's desk looking for spare change.
If Ben Tate is that dumb, who needs him?
I personally have high hopes for Rodney Obgannayafield. His only problem has been ball security. His 5-plus yard per carry are no mirage. He's big and strong, with underrated speed.
It's still quite possible that Tate will see the light and only get overpaid a little to sign here. The Browns are doing a great job of investing their cap surplus into front-loaded contracts that other teams can't match.
Players will always prefer as much guaranteed money up front as they can get, and will often turn down even better overall offers for this. This also mimimizes the cap hit if players are released after one season, which is why it's downright dumb to say that Dansby was overpaid.
It even makes any player more tradeable, because the trade partner after the first season could be getting a low-risk bargain.
Do the MATH.
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Oh Puh LEEZ
Eric Edholm (Shut Down Corner.com) wonders if, while standing at a press conference, Ray Farmer accidentally exposed his free agent board to the world on a white board right behind him.
At first, I thought this guy was kidding. But later in the article, he actually copies and pastes a response from the Browns about the board!
It's pretty bad when drunk fans see black helicopters, but here I am doing this damn blog and some idiot thinks this idiot is better than me.
It's depressing. Ok look: Ray Farmer knew that board was behind him. It was there for a reason. I haven't figured out the reason yet, but it sure as hell wasn't there by accident DDDUUUHHHHH!!!!
Cody Norman of the Bleacher Report who, like every Bleacher Report writer, just loves the word "desperate", nevertheless wrote a really good article on five free agents who would make a difference for the Browns.
I prefer the Giants Hynoski to the venerable and less verstatile and athletic Vonta Leach at fullback, but since Ray has just signaled that he means to contend immediately with the Dansby signing, and since Leach should be dirt cheap, I wouldn't mind.
From Joe Mazulo of Dawg Pound Daily, I copied this:
- Lastly, here are some names that you could hear surface with the Browns in the next few days: RB’s Ben Tate and Anthony Dixon. WR’s Julian Edelman and Emmanuel Sanders. OT Anthony Collins, DL Alex Carrington and CB Antonio Cromartie.
If Ben Tate is under 4 million, that would be ok. I heard Bill Polian and other guys going over the cliff talking about the Browns not having a number one or even number two running back, and I'm sick of it.
It's similar to those who already have Hoyer's headstone prepared. Obgannaya averages over 5 yards per carry and Baker has done nothing to prove he's NOT a number one back in a zone system. I believe Polian got caught up having some fun and being cute, because he's really full of crap here.
Alex Carrington, I believe, might grease the skids for Rubin and his big contract. I need to remind people that Rubin is a NT first and a DE second, since the population of Oblivia, Ohio think he's just a DE. But he gets paid a lot, Carrington is a true DE, and there is other depth at nose tackle.
Cromartie is 29, didn't need surgery for his hip flexor, and might cost about 25% of what the greatest and most humble football player in history, Darryl Revis, would cost. Signing Cromartie for actual cornerback money would help the Browns sign Joe Haden, who, at this point in their respective careers, might be better that Revis.
If the Browns pay Revis the rediculous, outrageous quarterback money that pig is demanding, I couldn't blame Joe Haden for stepping away from the table and demanding more. He can't possibly be as greedy as Revis is, but he's a man and has to respond to an insult.
Cromartie isn't as good as Revis, but he is really good. MATH.
Update: Revis signed with the Pats for twelve milllionnn dolllarzz. Would have been 13 here, and Haden would want the same. 26 mil for two cornerbacks you can't do that do you understand?
At first, I thought this guy was kidding. But later in the article, he actually copies and pastes a response from the Browns about the board!
It's pretty bad when drunk fans see black helicopters, but here I am doing this damn blog and some idiot thinks this idiot is better than me.
It's depressing. Ok look: Ray Farmer knew that board was behind him. It was there for a reason. I haven't figured out the reason yet, but it sure as hell wasn't there by accident DDDUUUHHHHH!!!!
Cody Norman of the Bleacher Report who, like every Bleacher Report writer, just loves the word "desperate", nevertheless wrote a really good article on five free agents who would make a difference for the Browns.
I prefer the Giants Hynoski to the venerable and less verstatile and athletic Vonta Leach at fullback, but since Ray has just signaled that he means to contend immediately with the Dansby signing, and since Leach should be dirt cheap, I wouldn't mind.
From Joe Mazulo of Dawg Pound Daily, I copied this:
- Lastly, here are some names that you could hear surface with the Browns in the next few days: RB’s Ben Tate and Anthony Dixon. WR’s Julian Edelman and Emmanuel Sanders. OT Anthony Collins, DL Alex Carrington and CB Antonio Cromartie.
If Ben Tate is under 4 million, that would be ok. I heard Bill Polian and other guys going over the cliff talking about the Browns not having a number one or even number two running back, and I'm sick of it.
It's similar to those who already have Hoyer's headstone prepared. Obgannaya averages over 5 yards per carry and Baker has done nothing to prove he's NOT a number one back in a zone system. I believe Polian got caught up having some fun and being cute, because he's really full of crap here.
Alex Carrington, I believe, might grease the skids for Rubin and his big contract. I need to remind people that Rubin is a NT first and a DE second, since the population of Oblivia, Ohio think he's just a DE. But he gets paid a lot, Carrington is a true DE, and there is other depth at nose tackle.
Cromartie is 29, didn't need surgery for his hip flexor, and might cost about 25% of what the greatest and most humble football player in history, Darryl Revis, would cost. Signing Cromartie for actual cornerback money would help the Browns sign Joe Haden, who, at this point in their respective careers, might be better that Revis.
If the Browns pay Revis the rediculous, outrageous quarterback money that pig is demanding, I couldn't blame Joe Haden for stepping away from the table and demanding more. He can't possibly be as greedy as Revis is, but he's a man and has to respond to an insult.
Cromartie isn't as good as Revis, but he is really good. MATH.
Update: Revis signed with the Pats for twelve milllionnn dolllarzz. Would have been 13 here, and Haden would want the same. 26 mil for two cornerbacks you can't do that do you understand?
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
So Far So...I Dunno...
At this point, Donte Whitner and Karlos Dansby have been signed, and TJ Ward has gone off to Denver.
My pal Waittilnextyear is really enthusiastic about this stuff, but not me so much.
Of course, W started it out thinking that the Browns had signed Moats out of Buffalo, which had me all atwitter, but I can't see where he heard that, and am disappointed. (Late edit: I read the article and am still hopeful).
Instead, it's Dansby, who is 32 years old. That's just about the age at which, prior to the current regime, the Browns have habitually picked over the New England Patriots Retirement home, and brought shadows of great players here to disappear.
And I've heard this: The guarantees are short-term, and he was awesome just last season. This is encouraging, and I do believe that Dansby will at least be a very good player in '14. But not as good as he was last season.
Whitner is different, at only 28. Just recently, I read more of this false and ignorant crap that TJ Ward was a liability in coverage, and Whitner is vastly superior in that category, etc. That's stupid, mindless sheepthink bullcrap. Ward covered well last season.
Whitner is kind of similar to TJ, really. But he misses fewer tackles, and does indeed have the edge on him in coverage. He's a better fit for Pettine's cover 2 scheme than TJ was, also.
Pettine uses twin safeties, rather than one center-fielder for coverage and one strong safety for the box and short field. A box safety really has no place in this scheme, but a free safety does.
A traditional strong safety roams the short and intermediate area to stop the run and cover backs and tight ends, while the free safety hangs back in center field to pick up any deep threats. A cover 2 safety covers everybody, from the line of scrimmage to the friendly goal line.
Both must stop the run, and the backside safety is supposed to lag behind to watch out for cutbacks. The scheme makes it very hard for an offense to block either one, as they often can a traditional strong safety.
Whitner is a better fit than TJ was.
Dansby can play either if the ILB positions, and (so far) covers really well, is an excellent blitzer, and even at 32-33 is a big upgrade.
The great Terry Pluto made another rare mistake today in discussing the potential acquisition of Arthur Moats from the Bills. Moats is a converted defensive end currently playing outside linebacker. Here, he would play inside on the strong side. He would replace Jackson, not Roberts. You don't want Moats trying to cover people in space.
Late edit: Terry was right, I was wrong.
It seems that at this point Dansby will be the "run-and hit" guy and replace Roberts.
His signing tells me that the Browns are trying to turn things around immediately. I also believe that these two were signed out of the gate so that Farmer can point them out to other potential free agents who may be reluctant to sign on to a losing team.
I do wish they'd sign Moats, though.
Rumors about the Browns trading multiple picks for Revis and his current contract are, I hope, false. Revis is a great 28-year-old player, but his contract is rediculous, he'll be released tomorrow, and I at least hope that Farmer isn't as anxious to get rid of those draft picks as others think he is.
Revis may still be the best cornerback in the NFL, but let's not go nuts here. Is he worth 30% more than a guy who's 7% worse?
But I get it: Haden/Revis = Dixon/Minnifield, and the quarterback often can't get rid of the ball. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't mind an almost Revis at a much, much, much lower price.
And is Joe Haden signed yet? Better damn well get that done before you sign Revis for like half again as freaking much as you were offering Joe, know what I mean this is BUSINESS do you get that?
The biggest single reason that Seattle just won the Superbowl was that Wilson is paid nickles and dimes, and they could afford excellent players. Denver lost because Peyton Manning hogs the bulk of their payroll and they couldn't afford that. The Patriots are perennial contenders partly because Tom Brady signed a team-friendly contract, and Bill could afford talent. The Ravens had no shot at repeating because Joe Flacco wiped out their roster.
These are QUARTERBACKS. Revis is a cornerback, and is paid almost as much! Hell. No.
As it stands, the defense is upgraded a little. The venerable Dansby is better at almost everything than both DQwell and Roberts, and Whitner is more durable, better in coverage, and a better system fit than TJ Ward.
Rodney Gipsonfield also projects better with Pettine and company than in Ray Horton's more conventional coverage scheme. Gipson's tools project better to cover 2 than to free safety. If you think that Farmer or Pettine are in a big hurry to replace this guy, who enters his third season, you don't get it.
Darryl Revis is extremely greedy, and I really hope that Farmer doesn't do a Savage and pay just any price. This guy is starting on the downside of his career and is due for a BIG pay cut. He may not even be the best cornerback in the NFL any more, okay? Joe Haden might even be better than he will be in 2014 okay? Stop deifying these guys okay?
There's a chance that Farmer WILL massively overpay this guy, but assuming he gets a nosebleed and leaves the room with his eyes rolling, there are still several good cover corners around.
Here I'll use Russell S Baxter's 3/27 entry in the Bleacher Report: Talib, Verner, D R Cromartie, Tillman, the Ravens Corey Graham are a few (I haven't kept track. Some of these guys might be off the market now I don't know).
Antone Exum is ranked seventh among the draftable cornerbacks on NFL.com, for example. He's ranked that low because he's coming off a knee injury, and because he has little experience in zone coverage (he's been all-man all the time). He's also knocked for seeming "arrogant", and he needs some refinement.
Pettine, I believe, will use man coverage almost exclusively, so inexperience in zone is not a big thing. Moreover, this guy is 6', 214 and contrasts with Joe Haden for more flexible matchups. This guy could last until the second or even the third round!
Asamoah and other top free agent guards are off the market now, and it looks more likely that they'll draft one in the middle rounds or higher if Rodney Faulkfield or Rodney Gilkeyfield don't emerge as second year starters in this zone scheme.
Faulk is a guy I've forgotten about as both a right tackle and a potential zone guard. He's taller than you like as a guard, but has the mobility and agility to function in this scheme--that's a rare size/speed combo. Many of the scouting reports on him actually describe a better "finesse"/zone blocker than man-blocker despite his huge size and power.
He only had one year as a starter (left tackle) in college, and had been injured, which is why he didn't have a high value except as a free agent. He now has a year in the pros under his belt, and likely learned more here than he would have with another year in college...shame on me for forgetting about this guy!
Anyway, after only one day of free agency, the defense is actually pretty well set except for one starting outside cornerback and ideally one more inside linebacker.
On that, I'm really hoping for Moats next to Dansby. Moats is ideal for the dirty work that DQwell did, while Dansby can run-and-hit. This would make the Browns very strong inside behind the defensive line, with a pass-rush threat from both slots.
Moats, a converted DE, can also play outside or put his hand in the dirt in this scheme, so he's also depth. Please, Ray sign this guy!
Moats, moreover, is only 25, so unlike Dansby he could stick around for a long time.
This would leave only cornerback on defense, and the Browns could damn near rebuild the whole offense in the draft.
I guess Dansby and Whitner were a good start, and I suspect the other teams in the AFC North are already getting nervous.
My pal Waittilnextyear is really enthusiastic about this stuff, but not me so much.
Of course, W started it out thinking that the Browns had signed Moats out of Buffalo, which had me all atwitter, but I can't see where he heard that, and am disappointed. (Late edit: I read the article and am still hopeful).
Instead, it's Dansby, who is 32 years old. That's just about the age at which, prior to the current regime, the Browns have habitually picked over the New England Patriots Retirement home, and brought shadows of great players here to disappear.
And I've heard this: The guarantees are short-term, and he was awesome just last season. This is encouraging, and I do believe that Dansby will at least be a very good player in '14. But not as good as he was last season.
Whitner is different, at only 28. Just recently, I read more of this false and ignorant crap that TJ Ward was a liability in coverage, and Whitner is vastly superior in that category, etc. That's stupid, mindless sheepthink bullcrap. Ward covered well last season.
Whitner is kind of similar to TJ, really. But he misses fewer tackles, and does indeed have the edge on him in coverage. He's a better fit for Pettine's cover 2 scheme than TJ was, also.
Pettine uses twin safeties, rather than one center-fielder for coverage and one strong safety for the box and short field. A box safety really has no place in this scheme, but a free safety does.
A traditional strong safety roams the short and intermediate area to stop the run and cover backs and tight ends, while the free safety hangs back in center field to pick up any deep threats. A cover 2 safety covers everybody, from the line of scrimmage to the friendly goal line.
Both must stop the run, and the backside safety is supposed to lag behind to watch out for cutbacks. The scheme makes it very hard for an offense to block either one, as they often can a traditional strong safety.
Whitner is a better fit than TJ was.
Dansby can play either if the ILB positions, and (so far) covers really well, is an excellent blitzer, and even at 32-33 is a big upgrade.
The great Terry Pluto made another rare mistake today in discussing the potential acquisition of Arthur Moats from the Bills. Moats is a converted defensive end currently playing outside linebacker. Here, he would play inside on the strong side. He would replace Jackson, not Roberts. You don't want Moats trying to cover people in space.
Late edit: Terry was right, I was wrong.
It seems that at this point Dansby will be the "run-and hit" guy and replace Roberts.
His signing tells me that the Browns are trying to turn things around immediately. I also believe that these two were signed out of the gate so that Farmer can point them out to other potential free agents who may be reluctant to sign on to a losing team.
I do wish they'd sign Moats, though.
Rumors about the Browns trading multiple picks for Revis and his current contract are, I hope, false. Revis is a great 28-year-old player, but his contract is rediculous, he'll be released tomorrow, and I at least hope that Farmer isn't as anxious to get rid of those draft picks as others think he is.
Revis may still be the best cornerback in the NFL, but let's not go nuts here. Is he worth 30% more than a guy who's 7% worse?
But I get it: Haden/Revis = Dixon/Minnifield, and the quarterback often can't get rid of the ball. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't mind an almost Revis at a much, much, much lower price.
And is Joe Haden signed yet? Better damn well get that done before you sign Revis for like half again as freaking much as you were offering Joe, know what I mean this is BUSINESS do you get that?
The biggest single reason that Seattle just won the Superbowl was that Wilson is paid nickles and dimes, and they could afford excellent players. Denver lost because Peyton Manning hogs the bulk of their payroll and they couldn't afford that. The Patriots are perennial contenders partly because Tom Brady signed a team-friendly contract, and Bill could afford talent. The Ravens had no shot at repeating because Joe Flacco wiped out their roster.
These are QUARTERBACKS. Revis is a cornerback, and is paid almost as much! Hell. No.
As it stands, the defense is upgraded a little. The venerable Dansby is better at almost everything than both DQwell and Roberts, and Whitner is more durable, better in coverage, and a better system fit than TJ Ward.
Rodney Gipsonfield also projects better with Pettine and company than in Ray Horton's more conventional coverage scheme. Gipson's tools project better to cover 2 than to free safety. If you think that Farmer or Pettine are in a big hurry to replace this guy, who enters his third season, you don't get it.
Darryl Revis is extremely greedy, and I really hope that Farmer doesn't do a Savage and pay just any price. This guy is starting on the downside of his career and is due for a BIG pay cut. He may not even be the best cornerback in the NFL any more, okay? Joe Haden might even be better than he will be in 2014 okay? Stop deifying these guys okay?
There's a chance that Farmer WILL massively overpay this guy, but assuming he gets a nosebleed and leaves the room with his eyes rolling, there are still several good cover corners around.
Here I'll use Russell S Baxter's 3/27 entry in the Bleacher Report: Talib, Verner, D R Cromartie, Tillman, the Ravens Corey Graham are a few (I haven't kept track. Some of these guys might be off the market now I don't know).
Antone Exum is ranked seventh among the draftable cornerbacks on NFL.com, for example. He's ranked that low because he's coming off a knee injury, and because he has little experience in zone coverage (he's been all-man all the time). He's also knocked for seeming "arrogant", and he needs some refinement.
Pettine, I believe, will use man coverage almost exclusively, so inexperience in zone is not a big thing. Moreover, this guy is 6', 214 and contrasts with Joe Haden for more flexible matchups. This guy could last until the second or even the third round!
Asamoah and other top free agent guards are off the market now, and it looks more likely that they'll draft one in the middle rounds or higher if Rodney Faulkfield or Rodney Gilkeyfield don't emerge as second year starters in this zone scheme.
Faulk is a guy I've forgotten about as both a right tackle and a potential zone guard. He's taller than you like as a guard, but has the mobility and agility to function in this scheme--that's a rare size/speed combo. Many of the scouting reports on him actually describe a better "finesse"/zone blocker than man-blocker despite his huge size and power.
He only had one year as a starter (left tackle) in college, and had been injured, which is why he didn't have a high value except as a free agent. He now has a year in the pros under his belt, and likely learned more here than he would have with another year in college...shame on me for forgetting about this guy!
Anyway, after only one day of free agency, the defense is actually pretty well set except for one starting outside cornerback and ideally one more inside linebacker.
On that, I'm really hoping for Moats next to Dansby. Moats is ideal for the dirty work that DQwell did, while Dansby can run-and-hit. This would make the Browns very strong inside behind the defensive line, with a pass-rush threat from both slots.
Moats, a converted DE, can also play outside or put his hand in the dirt in this scheme, so he's also depth. Please, Ray sign this guy!
Moats, moreover, is only 25, so unlike Dansby he could stick around for a long time.
This would leave only cornerback on defense, and the Browns could damn near rebuild the whole offense in the draft.
I guess Dansby and Whitner were a good start, and I suspect the other teams in the AFC North are already getting nervous.
Monday, March 10, 2014
More Rumors
Per this article of Fansided by Paul Noels, the Browns aren't interested in a quarterback with the fourth overall pick. The source for this is former player and GM Matt Millen.
"From what I'm hearing"...
Millen is speculating on speculation. Analysts are analyzing and trying to anticipate things. There's a whole lot of "if I were Ray Farmer--" going on here, and I doubt that Matt has a shred of concrete information.
Ray himself started a lot of this up by simply saying "It might not be who you think it is" which, in the minds of many, meant that it could not possibly be Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel. And yes, that statement is part of "from what I've been hearing"!
It's fine to speculate, as long as you label what you're writing as your own opinion, and are clear about your sources.
Noel went on to imply that he had "heard" that the Browns were enamored with Watkins at four.
This I doubt. This is another basic math problem. I'm not sure, but I suspect that Ray Farmer is good at basic math:
There is only one football. Many teams don't even have a number one wide reciever, but the Browns do. Having two number one wide recievers would be awesome, but also redundant and inefficient.
That's inefficient in this context; The Browns current roster, and this current free agent/draft crop. Wide reciever is possibly historicly deep, with the draft being deep in general.
Elementary math says you let somebody (who can't add and subtract as well as you can) buy that pick from you and move down. Get more players.
Here's another way of looking at it: At number one wide reciever you have one: Gordon. At number two wide reciever you have zero. You have other zeros: Two at inside linebacker, maybe two at guard, one at backup tight end, one at cornerback, etc.
You add up the zeros and see that you can turn two of those into ones, instead of just one, if you trade down.
One of the reasons Bill Belichick has kept the Patriots competitive is that in most drafts, he trades down--sometimes multiple times. He even starts with a sixth rounder, turns it into a fifth rounder the following year, and a fourth the year after that, and keeps doing that.
That's far, far too sophisticated for most Browns fans. That's math 102.
Beyond the math of it, look at where the Browns will be at four: There are three top quarterbacks, Clowney, and Watson. Five players will be in high demand. Few will fear that Ray will draft Clowney, but the other four guys are potential Browns targets.
I should mention this here, as it's often overlooked: When a team tries to trade up to get a player a team ahead of them wants, that team will demand more if they're even willing to give that player up. So they'll skip them and talk to the team drafting ahead of them.
If the Browns are willing to give up Watkins or a quarterback, they will definitely have that option.
In my previous blog, I mentioned Peter Smith's yen for Odell Beckham over Watson. I personally talked about Mike Evans. The columns today are loaded with free agent wide reciever ideas for the Browns.
It's true that Watson and Gordon would terrify defensive coordinators league-wide, so that even if (as I believe) the Browns land at least one starting veteran wide reciever prior to the draft, they'll still fear that Farmer will take him--or that the Raiders will, etc.
So what is a high second round pick worth in this draft? It could be a stud inside linebacker, cornerback, guard, tight end, or Murray the quarterback (or that other QB).
What would the sixth or seventh pick in this draft be worth? Khalil Mack. Mike Evans. Who's the best cornerback in this draft? Could they now move up from 26? Could they turn one of the second rounders into a first rounder in '14?
See? Math 101!
I still think it's as likely Bortles or Bridgewater as anybody else, and admit that I have no idea. If it's not, I still hope it's a trade-down and then Khalil Mack.
This was all opinion.
"From what I'm hearing"...
Millen is speculating on speculation. Analysts are analyzing and trying to anticipate things. There's a whole lot of "if I were Ray Farmer--" going on here, and I doubt that Matt has a shred of concrete information.
Ray himself started a lot of this up by simply saying "It might not be who you think it is" which, in the minds of many, meant that it could not possibly be Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel. And yes, that statement is part of "from what I've been hearing"!
It's fine to speculate, as long as you label what you're writing as your own opinion, and are clear about your sources.
Noel went on to imply that he had "heard" that the Browns were enamored with Watkins at four.
This I doubt. This is another basic math problem. I'm not sure, but I suspect that Ray Farmer is good at basic math:
There is only one football. Many teams don't even have a number one wide reciever, but the Browns do. Having two number one wide recievers would be awesome, but also redundant and inefficient.
That's inefficient in this context; The Browns current roster, and this current free agent/draft crop. Wide reciever is possibly historicly deep, with the draft being deep in general.
Elementary math says you let somebody (who can't add and subtract as well as you can) buy that pick from you and move down. Get more players.
Here's another way of looking at it: At number one wide reciever you have one: Gordon. At number two wide reciever you have zero. You have other zeros: Two at inside linebacker, maybe two at guard, one at backup tight end, one at cornerback, etc.
You add up the zeros and see that you can turn two of those into ones, instead of just one, if you trade down.
One of the reasons Bill Belichick has kept the Patriots competitive is that in most drafts, he trades down--sometimes multiple times. He even starts with a sixth rounder, turns it into a fifth rounder the following year, and a fourth the year after that, and keeps doing that.
That's far, far too sophisticated for most Browns fans. That's math 102.
Beyond the math of it, look at where the Browns will be at four: There are three top quarterbacks, Clowney, and Watson. Five players will be in high demand. Few will fear that Ray will draft Clowney, but the other four guys are potential Browns targets.
I should mention this here, as it's often overlooked: When a team tries to trade up to get a player a team ahead of them wants, that team will demand more if they're even willing to give that player up. So they'll skip them and talk to the team drafting ahead of them.
If the Browns are willing to give up Watkins or a quarterback, they will definitely have that option.
In my previous blog, I mentioned Peter Smith's yen for Odell Beckham over Watson. I personally talked about Mike Evans. The columns today are loaded with free agent wide reciever ideas for the Browns.
It's true that Watson and Gordon would terrify defensive coordinators league-wide, so that even if (as I believe) the Browns land at least one starting veteran wide reciever prior to the draft, they'll still fear that Farmer will take him--or that the Raiders will, etc.
So what is a high second round pick worth in this draft? It could be a stud inside linebacker, cornerback, guard, tight end, or Murray the quarterback (or that other QB).
What would the sixth or seventh pick in this draft be worth? Khalil Mack. Mike Evans. Who's the best cornerback in this draft? Could they now move up from 26? Could they turn one of the second rounders into a first rounder in '14?
See? Math 101!
I still think it's as likely Bortles or Bridgewater as anybody else, and admit that I have no idea. If it's not, I still hope it's a trade-down and then Khalil Mack.
This was all opinion.
Sunday, March 9, 2014
Offseason Browns Rumors
The Browns' pursuit of Matt Schaub is understandable. As Chris Simms said, last season was really Schaub's only bad one.
Schaub himself, however, will resist coming to a team which is likely to draft a quarterback high, not to mention one which (I hope) wouldn't guarantee him the starting gig over Brian Hoyer.
But the market is the market, so Schaub's options might be limited. It's really between the Browns and the Raiders, and there's a lot for him not to like with both teams.
The Raiders give him a better chance of being the default starter, but has less talent, and is in cap purgatory. The Browns have more talent and appear poised to add more, but (I hope) want to give the much younger Hoyer a legitimate chance to win the starting job--and have those draft picks locked and loaded.
I'd like Matt here more than I'd like a Campbell or about any other venerable geezer, and believe that Chris Simms knows what he's talking about: The guy can still be pretty damn good, and already knows Kyle Shanahan and his offense.
I'm a big Hoyer fan, so I almost hope this falls through. If the Browns land Matt Schaub, there's a good chance that Brian won't even get his chance, and will be a default backup, at least until/unless Schaub proves that he really is done.
I personally won't bash the move, if it happens. Hoyer is learning a new system and lacks experience. He's only had about seven quarters as a starter. Schaub was, until last season's collapse, an elite quarterback.
With Hoyer, I could be wrong yet again, and he might not be all that after all. With Schaub, if he returns to the QB he was through 2012, this Browns team could immediately contend for the Division and the playoffs.
And yes they could. I'm really sick of hearing about "too many holes to fill" with over 50 million in cap space and ten draft picks. I think Cleveland's school system really needs to upgrade it's math curriculum. For that matter, why don't they teach critical thinking? Oh yeah--politics nevermind.
My pal Waittilnextyear boldly predicted that the Browns might shock everybody and draft Khalil Mack at four. I could see them using their first pick on Mack, but think it would be much smarter after a trade-down (if Bridgewater or Bortles don't fall to them, which I hope one does).
I hadn't realized before how versatile Mack is, and thanks to Tony Grossi and one of his smarter askers, I now know that he could play inside in this defense, helping to fill that new and enhanced hole at ILB.
Mack would drasiticly upgrade the whole defense in that role, and could play either of the two positions. For that matter, he could play any of the four positions, and in sub packages and situations could line up just about anywhere as a joker.
Tony has them drafting CJ Mosely at 26...can you imagine that? Mack and Mosely inside?
But Peter Smith (Dawg Pound Daily) hopes the Sammy Watkins hype is a smokescreen, and prefers Odell Beckham at 26. The link leads to his really thorough and in-depth analysis of this wide reciever (and returner).
Terry Pluto is also very thorough in trying to figure out Mike Pettine and his philosophy. Thanks to him, I now know that Pettine is a speed freak. As Terry quotes in the article, Pettine said that the easiest thing to do with a player in the NFL is make him stronger. It's a lot harder to speed him up.
That's why he likes Mingo so much, and having his druthers might have made that draft pick himself.
Beckham fits. He's a big-play guy who can play outside or in the slot. Peter is most impressed by his improvement as a reciever, which might be what sold me. When a guy gets this much better this quickly, his dedication and work ethic are self-evident, and he should keep improving as an NFL rookie.
Based on both Pettine's comments and Shanahan's semi-West Coast system, Beckham is a perfect fit, as he excels in the open field and after the catch.
I still like Mike Evans a lot--what a monster! But he won't be there at 26, and if it's a trade-down I'd now take Mack over him.
Regarding that trade-down, Tony Grossi said that Aaron Murray is not a franchise quarterback. I'm not sure what he bases this on. His average arm strength, or perhaps his height, I'd guess. But two of the top safeties I heard interviewed at the combine would probably disagree.
Murray is really advanced. He "moves" safeties with his eyes, and reads defenses.
And at yesterday's Ohio State workout, at least Gil Brandt had the courtesy to mention QB Kenny Guiton, who he feels will probably go undrafted and start out as somebody's fourth quarterback. I still think this guy could be the hugest sleeper in history.
Gil said he played "pretty well" in relief of the starter, which I found rediculous. He was lights out spectacular. But then Gil is always understated that way.
Tony still thinks Bortles will be there at four. He has Houston rolling the dice on Manziel with the first overall pick. I hope he's right, but think he's wrong.
Back to elementary mathematics and fixing the team in one offseason:
WR: The Browns need a Y reciever opposite Gordon. It would be cool to get another stud with number one potential, but this is not a need. They might or might not need a slot reciever, as Benjamin will return and Josh Cooper showed some good stuff late in his second season, but we'll stipulate: Let's add one.
That's two recievers in a draft and free agent market that are deep in them. Julian Edelman is just one of many veteran free agents who could come here and start instantly without breaking the bank.
For the hell of it, let's say they draft Beckham at 26, and sign one middle-tier free agent. WR fixed. Remaining draft picks everything except 26.
The "need" for a running back is, as I've said, massively overstated due to the presence of Rodney Obgannayafield, Rodney Bakerfield, and the zone-blocking rushing attack which will be used. But of course you can always get better, so they'll draft one in the middle rounds. Like Alfred Morris (zone blocking see how that works?)
The "need" for a right tackle does not exist. I fell for it, too. No, they need guards. Athletic, mobile guards who can zone-block and block in space. There are at least two of these in free agency who would hardly put a dent in the cap.
In addition, this is a special sort of player which man-blocking teams (ie the majority of teams) won't neccessarily want. This type of guard isn't neccessarily a road-grader. He might well be labelled a "wall-off" type of blocker, which other teams will pass on.
John Asamoah would be an inexpensive and really nice upgrade.
Corey Linsley, the center at OSU will probably be a third day pick because his arms are a little short and he's a tad over 300 lbs., but he clocked under 5 flat and ran agility drills almost like a tight end. Fourth round or lower, and there are a bunch of these guys.
So far I haven't used the #4 draft pick, or the second rounder, or either of the third rounders, ok?
Tight end? Well yes, another one like Cameron would really help. Kyle Shanahan doesn't use conventional in-line tight ends much, and although Barnidge is highly overdissed as a reciever, the backup situation should be upgraded due to the system.
But this is not a big need, as this offense can function with a third or fourth wide reciever in lieu of a tight end, and Barnidge is, after all, not as bad as most fans think.
Fullback is another position which is easy to fill out of the discard bin in the lower rounds, as the blocking fullback is not a popular position in today's NFL. Even the free agents are woefully underpaid for what they do.
Among the free agents, I like Henry Hynoski (was a NY Giant). He'll be cheaper than dirt, because after being signed as an undrafted free agent, he first injured his knee, and then his shoulder, missing all but three games in 2013.
Hynoski is a 6'2", 260 lb. battering ram and more than that. He's a superior athlete who can catch the ball and run with it. He's highly intelligent and was an academic all-american.
He'll be fully recovered from his fractured shoulder (he got it catching a pass, and I'm guessing that he landed on it). The two injuries will deprive him of leverage, and are nothing to ignore, but they don't as yet prove fragility.
Jordan Cameron through his first couple seasons seemed to be injured all the time. Prior to the 2013 season, he worked out with Tony Gonzales, and altered his workouts somewhat to enhance his durability. It seems to have worked out.
If the Browns can land Hynoski and he can remain healthy, he'll be a major asset.
I read one report which said that Hynoski wasn't offered a tender, but that they intended to try to sign him. Well, they signed the guy who replaced him when he was injured, and I doubt that the Giants want to carry two blocking fullbacks on their roster.
Naturally the most important position is quarterback, but the Browns already have Rodney Hoyerfield, might sign Schaub, they might draft Bortles or Bridgewater (or Murray or even Guiton)--but let's just say they use number four on a QB, and there you go: the offense is fixed!
Ramaining picks: the second rounder, both third rounders, a fourth rounder etc.
They don't need any defensive linemen, and don't really need any OLB's either. They now need two ILB's. Well they can't get Mack or Mosely any more (unless Mosely somehow manages to drop into the second round), but there are several other really good ILB's to be had right through the fourth or fifth rounds.
Ryan Shazier (OSU) is one of these, in the second round. Shazier is faster than most wide recievers, but is a little smallish and is a run-and-hit/cover guy that you don't want taking on guards. He's the guy who would return Roberts to a backup role, and the other position would still need to be filled by a different type of player.
Arthur Moats might be that guy (he can play inside).
So now I've used the second rounder. The rest of the picks still remain for cornerbacks and safeties.
As for that, the safety position, like fullback, is undervalued, and some really good ones are usually there in the middle and even late rounds.
The Browns are already looking hard at Jarius Byrd in free agency, and I believe they like him more than TJ.
That is a system thing too, as Pettine favors a Belichickian cover two with twin safeties for whom coverage is the priority.
Rodney Gipsonfield is this type of player, and fortunately they are ignoring those of you who think he should be replaced. TJ is undervalued in coverage, however, and is a great fallback position.
Rodney Aubreyfield also fits this role nicely as a really talented ball-hawking backup, and in sub defenses. He's just a little short at 5'10", and offenses would try to match him up with skyscrapers. Aubrey is really kind of a cornerback/safety hybrid.
In other words, one way or the other, safety is already covered--there is no need here.
Which leaves cornerback. Sam Shields just re-signed with the Pack dammit, but there are still free agents who could help if Farmer doesn't land a semi-sleeper in the third round or something.
That's the math of it. The whole team can be fixed in one offseason without using much of their cap space. Thank you for attending Remedial Mathematics 101.
Oh yeah and no thirty year old Steelers, please.
Schaub himself, however, will resist coming to a team which is likely to draft a quarterback high, not to mention one which (I hope) wouldn't guarantee him the starting gig over Brian Hoyer.
But the market is the market, so Schaub's options might be limited. It's really between the Browns and the Raiders, and there's a lot for him not to like with both teams.
The Raiders give him a better chance of being the default starter, but has less talent, and is in cap purgatory. The Browns have more talent and appear poised to add more, but (I hope) want to give the much younger Hoyer a legitimate chance to win the starting job--and have those draft picks locked and loaded.
I'd like Matt here more than I'd like a Campbell or about any other venerable geezer, and believe that Chris Simms knows what he's talking about: The guy can still be pretty damn good, and already knows Kyle Shanahan and his offense.
I'm a big Hoyer fan, so I almost hope this falls through. If the Browns land Matt Schaub, there's a good chance that Brian won't even get his chance, and will be a default backup, at least until/unless Schaub proves that he really is done.
I personally won't bash the move, if it happens. Hoyer is learning a new system and lacks experience. He's only had about seven quarters as a starter. Schaub was, until last season's collapse, an elite quarterback.
With Hoyer, I could be wrong yet again, and he might not be all that after all. With Schaub, if he returns to the QB he was through 2012, this Browns team could immediately contend for the Division and the playoffs.
And yes they could. I'm really sick of hearing about "too many holes to fill" with over 50 million in cap space and ten draft picks. I think Cleveland's school system really needs to upgrade it's math curriculum. For that matter, why don't they teach critical thinking? Oh yeah--politics nevermind.
My pal Waittilnextyear boldly predicted that the Browns might shock everybody and draft Khalil Mack at four. I could see them using their first pick on Mack, but think it would be much smarter after a trade-down (if Bridgewater or Bortles don't fall to them, which I hope one does).
I hadn't realized before how versatile Mack is, and thanks to Tony Grossi and one of his smarter askers, I now know that he could play inside in this defense, helping to fill that new and enhanced hole at ILB.
Mack would drasiticly upgrade the whole defense in that role, and could play either of the two positions. For that matter, he could play any of the four positions, and in sub packages and situations could line up just about anywhere as a joker.
Tony has them drafting CJ Mosely at 26...can you imagine that? Mack and Mosely inside?
But Peter Smith (Dawg Pound Daily) hopes the Sammy Watkins hype is a smokescreen, and prefers Odell Beckham at 26. The link leads to his really thorough and in-depth analysis of this wide reciever (and returner).
Terry Pluto is also very thorough in trying to figure out Mike Pettine and his philosophy. Thanks to him, I now know that Pettine is a speed freak. As Terry quotes in the article, Pettine said that the easiest thing to do with a player in the NFL is make him stronger. It's a lot harder to speed him up.
That's why he likes Mingo so much, and having his druthers might have made that draft pick himself.
Beckham fits. He's a big-play guy who can play outside or in the slot. Peter is most impressed by his improvement as a reciever, which might be what sold me. When a guy gets this much better this quickly, his dedication and work ethic are self-evident, and he should keep improving as an NFL rookie.
Based on both Pettine's comments and Shanahan's semi-West Coast system, Beckham is a perfect fit, as he excels in the open field and after the catch.
I still like Mike Evans a lot--what a monster! But he won't be there at 26, and if it's a trade-down I'd now take Mack over him.
Regarding that trade-down, Tony Grossi said that Aaron Murray is not a franchise quarterback. I'm not sure what he bases this on. His average arm strength, or perhaps his height, I'd guess. But two of the top safeties I heard interviewed at the combine would probably disagree.
Murray is really advanced. He "moves" safeties with his eyes, and reads defenses.
And at yesterday's Ohio State workout, at least Gil Brandt had the courtesy to mention QB Kenny Guiton, who he feels will probably go undrafted and start out as somebody's fourth quarterback. I still think this guy could be the hugest sleeper in history.
Gil said he played "pretty well" in relief of the starter, which I found rediculous. He was lights out spectacular. But then Gil is always understated that way.
Tony still thinks Bortles will be there at four. He has Houston rolling the dice on Manziel with the first overall pick. I hope he's right, but think he's wrong.
Back to elementary mathematics and fixing the team in one offseason:
WR: The Browns need a Y reciever opposite Gordon. It would be cool to get another stud with number one potential, but this is not a need. They might or might not need a slot reciever, as Benjamin will return and Josh Cooper showed some good stuff late in his second season, but we'll stipulate: Let's add one.
That's two recievers in a draft and free agent market that are deep in them. Julian Edelman is just one of many veteran free agents who could come here and start instantly without breaking the bank.
For the hell of it, let's say they draft Beckham at 26, and sign one middle-tier free agent. WR fixed. Remaining draft picks everything except 26.
The "need" for a running back is, as I've said, massively overstated due to the presence of Rodney Obgannayafield, Rodney Bakerfield, and the zone-blocking rushing attack which will be used. But of course you can always get better, so they'll draft one in the middle rounds. Like Alfred Morris (zone blocking see how that works?)
The "need" for a right tackle does not exist. I fell for it, too. No, they need guards. Athletic, mobile guards who can zone-block and block in space. There are at least two of these in free agency who would hardly put a dent in the cap.
In addition, this is a special sort of player which man-blocking teams (ie the majority of teams) won't neccessarily want. This type of guard isn't neccessarily a road-grader. He might well be labelled a "wall-off" type of blocker, which other teams will pass on.
John Asamoah would be an inexpensive and really nice upgrade.
Corey Linsley, the center at OSU will probably be a third day pick because his arms are a little short and he's a tad over 300 lbs., but he clocked under 5 flat and ran agility drills almost like a tight end. Fourth round or lower, and there are a bunch of these guys.
So far I haven't used the #4 draft pick, or the second rounder, or either of the third rounders, ok?
Tight end? Well yes, another one like Cameron would really help. Kyle Shanahan doesn't use conventional in-line tight ends much, and although Barnidge is highly overdissed as a reciever, the backup situation should be upgraded due to the system.
But this is not a big need, as this offense can function with a third or fourth wide reciever in lieu of a tight end, and Barnidge is, after all, not as bad as most fans think.
Fullback is another position which is easy to fill out of the discard bin in the lower rounds, as the blocking fullback is not a popular position in today's NFL. Even the free agents are woefully underpaid for what they do.
Among the free agents, I like Henry Hynoski (was a NY Giant). He'll be cheaper than dirt, because after being signed as an undrafted free agent, he first injured his knee, and then his shoulder, missing all but three games in 2013.
Hynoski is a 6'2", 260 lb. battering ram and more than that. He's a superior athlete who can catch the ball and run with it. He's highly intelligent and was an academic all-american.
He'll be fully recovered from his fractured shoulder (he got it catching a pass, and I'm guessing that he landed on it). The two injuries will deprive him of leverage, and are nothing to ignore, but they don't as yet prove fragility.
Jordan Cameron through his first couple seasons seemed to be injured all the time. Prior to the 2013 season, he worked out with Tony Gonzales, and altered his workouts somewhat to enhance his durability. It seems to have worked out.
If the Browns can land Hynoski and he can remain healthy, he'll be a major asset.
I read one report which said that Hynoski wasn't offered a tender, but that they intended to try to sign him. Well, they signed the guy who replaced him when he was injured, and I doubt that the Giants want to carry two blocking fullbacks on their roster.
Naturally the most important position is quarterback, but the Browns already have Rodney Hoyerfield, might sign Schaub, they might draft Bortles or Bridgewater (or Murray or even Guiton)--but let's just say they use number four on a QB, and there you go: the offense is fixed!
Ramaining picks: the second rounder, both third rounders, a fourth rounder etc.
They don't need any defensive linemen, and don't really need any OLB's either. They now need two ILB's. Well they can't get Mack or Mosely any more (unless Mosely somehow manages to drop into the second round), but there are several other really good ILB's to be had right through the fourth or fifth rounds.
Ryan Shazier (OSU) is one of these, in the second round. Shazier is faster than most wide recievers, but is a little smallish and is a run-and-hit/cover guy that you don't want taking on guards. He's the guy who would return Roberts to a backup role, and the other position would still need to be filled by a different type of player.
Arthur Moats might be that guy (he can play inside).
So now I've used the second rounder. The rest of the picks still remain for cornerbacks and safeties.
As for that, the safety position, like fullback, is undervalued, and some really good ones are usually there in the middle and even late rounds.
The Browns are already looking hard at Jarius Byrd in free agency, and I believe they like him more than TJ.
That is a system thing too, as Pettine favors a Belichickian cover two with twin safeties for whom coverage is the priority.
Rodney Gipsonfield is this type of player, and fortunately they are ignoring those of you who think he should be replaced. TJ is undervalued in coverage, however, and is a great fallback position.
Rodney Aubreyfield also fits this role nicely as a really talented ball-hawking backup, and in sub defenses. He's just a little short at 5'10", and offenses would try to match him up with skyscrapers. Aubrey is really kind of a cornerback/safety hybrid.
In other words, one way or the other, safety is already covered--there is no need here.
Which leaves cornerback. Sam Shields just re-signed with the Pack dammit, but there are still free agents who could help if Farmer doesn't land a semi-sleeper in the third round or something.
That's the math of it. The whole team can be fixed in one offseason without using much of their cap space. Thank you for attending Remedial Mathematics 101.
Oh yeah and no thirty year old Steelers, please.
Friday, March 7, 2014
Jimmy Haslam Learns Fast
Will Burge of the Bleacher Report wrote a nice piece on the possibility that the Browns could be turning things around after the latest coaching and front office moves.
He's right about the national perception of the organization to date: a mess.
But a number of the guys on NFL Radio (Bill Polian, Pat Kirwan, Gil Brandt et al) have been more positive recently, as have other objective experts who've taken the time to actually do any homework.
I need to point out something that's been missed elsewhere: Jimmy Haslam only bought the team one season ago. He's not Randy Lerner.
Despite Ross Tucker's opinion to the contrary, Banner was fixed up with him by the league, and Mike Lombardi was Banner's choice. Will Burge is wrong in repeating that Banner was reviled throughout the league. He was highly respected as a negotiator and cap guy.
His baggage came as the result of his conflict with Andy Reid, as Banner did what he did with Chud and monkeyed around with the roster.
But no, Jimmy didn't know him and didn't seek him out. He accepted the league's best advice and took on a team of what he felt were professionals.
After what Reid did in KC (substantially with Ray Farmer's people, by the way) and the internal issues with Banner here...after his first season as an NFL owner...after consulting people like Bill Parcells and others...he decided he'd made a mistake and didn't screw around about correcting it.
That's not dysfunctional on his part. That's a guy who learns and adapts quickly, isn't afraid to admit he was wrong, and doesn't waste time fixing it once he is sure it needs fixing.
I don't care about the timing of it. He hadn't made up his mind yet. He needed to be certain he was not about to make a second mistake. HE was in on the Pettine interviews, and I believe that he is the one who said "The hell with the other guys. Hire him."
And Pettine himself was right about Haslam's inquiry into Harbaugh. For a second rounder are you kidding me? Where do I sign? What part of that is dysfunctional are you out of your damn mind?
I really like Pettine. because he gets that and doesn't let his ego get in the way of his thinking.
I think many NFL free agents and their agents are smart enough to see the positives of this front office and team going forward. Unfortunately, the shallow national perception of the team gives them leverage, and they will use it to demand some additional premium to come here. That's just business.
Joe Banner wouldn't pay it. Haslam knew it. Alex Mack was on his way out. Jimmy knew that too.
Firing Banner was just business too.
He's right about the national perception of the organization to date: a mess.
But a number of the guys on NFL Radio (Bill Polian, Pat Kirwan, Gil Brandt et al) have been more positive recently, as have other objective experts who've taken the time to actually do any homework.
I need to point out something that's been missed elsewhere: Jimmy Haslam only bought the team one season ago. He's not Randy Lerner.
Despite Ross Tucker's opinion to the contrary, Banner was fixed up with him by the league, and Mike Lombardi was Banner's choice. Will Burge is wrong in repeating that Banner was reviled throughout the league. He was highly respected as a negotiator and cap guy.
His baggage came as the result of his conflict with Andy Reid, as Banner did what he did with Chud and monkeyed around with the roster.
But no, Jimmy didn't know him and didn't seek him out. He accepted the league's best advice and took on a team of what he felt were professionals.
After what Reid did in KC (substantially with Ray Farmer's people, by the way) and the internal issues with Banner here...after his first season as an NFL owner...after consulting people like Bill Parcells and others...he decided he'd made a mistake and didn't screw around about correcting it.
That's not dysfunctional on his part. That's a guy who learns and adapts quickly, isn't afraid to admit he was wrong, and doesn't waste time fixing it once he is sure it needs fixing.
I don't care about the timing of it. He hadn't made up his mind yet. He needed to be certain he was not about to make a second mistake. HE was in on the Pettine interviews, and I believe that he is the one who said "The hell with the other guys. Hire him."
And Pettine himself was right about Haslam's inquiry into Harbaugh. For a second rounder are you kidding me? Where do I sign? What part of that is dysfunctional are you out of your damn mind?
I really like Pettine. because he gets that and doesn't let his ego get in the way of his thinking.
I think many NFL free agents and their agents are smart enough to see the positives of this front office and team going forward. Unfortunately, the shallow national perception of the team gives them leverage, and they will use it to demand some additional premium to come here. That's just business.
Joe Banner wouldn't pay it. Haslam knew it. Alex Mack was on his way out. Jimmy knew that too.
Firing Banner was just business too.
Monday, March 3, 2014
Browns Rumors
Will Burge of the Bleacher Report wrote a good article on the various rumors floating around about the Browns. I can't find anything at all wrong with it, which is rare.
In particular the pursuit of Sam Shields rumor is just too obvious not to be true.
Will's verdict on the rumor that the Browns actually liked Derrick Carr best and would try to draft him at 26 was false, and I tend to agree.
Will felt that this is another smokescreen, but it could be much simpler. Some clown like me could speculate about it in his blog. Some other clown with a wider audience could steal it from him, writing it as an actual prediction.
Several other pundits could repeat this. Then some bigshot reads all this and calls some people they think are Browns insiders to ask about this. These people might say "It makes sense", or "Could be", and here we go!
The only reason Ray Farmer would leak this deliberately would be if he wants one of the top three quarterbacks, and wants to discourage anybody from trading ahead of him to pull the rug out from under him. I still consider the aforementioned rumor mill explanation more likely, especially since I DID propose it myself in an earlier posting,
This isn't to say that Ray Farmer doesn't like Carr. I jumped off the Carr wagon due to his below 50% completions on passes over 20 yards, and his lower percentage under pressure.
But then Geno Smith had some statistical flaws. EJ Manuel looked better, but not perfect. And Carr did excel at the Senior Bowl, all day every day during practice, and then in the game.
On the other hand, I've now learned that he personally was really putrid in his Bowl game.
So I just don't know. But I agree with Will: I doubt that Carr would be there at 26.
I'm encouraged by recent mock drafts which seem to have Bridgewater or Bortles for them at four. I keep hearing the "There's no Andrew Luck" mantra repeated, but if Ray Farmer believes in somebody, it won't matter what more glorified versions of me think--he'll take him.
I'm a little surprised and pleased to hear that the (probably true) reporting that Rubin will not be released. Doug Dieken emphasises leadership a lot, and I guess he knows what he's talking about. Rubin seems to be the leader of the defensive line.
Others, including my man Terry Pluto, keep talking about sack numbers, and I keep reminding everybody that this is a 3-4 defense. Rubin is making a lot of money for a guy who doesn't get sacks, but he can play any of the three line positions, he's been Mister Reliable, and he's still young.
He also gives the coaches a lot of flexibility. Kitchen has developed into a good nose tackle, and Hughes can do that in a pinch, but Rubin has more range and is quicker. Taylor and Rubin can each be moved around to find the best matchups.
Will is right, though: It's still possible that Rubin could be released during training camp. I said p o s s i b l e.
The guy nobody talks about on the defensive line is Billy Winn, who is just all over the place making plays, and is only going to get better. The Browns might have the best 3-4 DL in the NFL. Here's the one unit on the team they can ignore.
If Joe Banner was ready to let Alex Mack walk, I'm gladder than ever that he's gone. How can you not value the center? The guy who makes all the line calls, blocks linebackers in space, takes on nose tackles are you kidding me? Next to the left tackle, the center is the most important position on the offensive line!
When the Browns drafted Mack rather than Clay Matthews, everybody bashed that move. Not me. While I would have been just as happy with Clay, I understand how important center is.
Cody Norman thinks the Browns should draft Watkins at four.
I agree that would be awesome, but it would be a wasted pick. The draft and free agency are flooded with wide recievers right now. Two number ones would indeed be scary, but a number one reciever is not a need at all.
If the Browns didn't need guard(s), better TE depth, now two ILB's, cornerback, fullback, maybe running back, and--oh yeah quarterback, Watkins would be a great pick at number four.
Cody talks about Watkins taking pressure of Gordon and Cameron. He would, but that's not the job. The number one (Gordon) beats double coverage with an accurate quarterback. HE takes the pressure off the number two, who beats single coverage.
Watkins on this team is redundant. He'd make bigger plays than the other alternatives, but the difference he would make over a Baldwin or somebody else overall could be downright negligable. There is only one football.
It's even possible that a guy like Baldwin paired with Gordon could be better. Baldwin makes catches even with cornerbacks glued to him. Taking him down is just an ordeal. He'll be doing a lot of downfield blocking in the NFL.
I believe that Ray Farmer will draft Bortles or Bridgewater at four, or else trade down. With Watkins on the board, somebody without a Josh Gordon will absolutely be a dance partner, if a QB-hungry team isn't. Keep up the speculation, Cody!
Vic Carruci has it right. Make the most of this very deep draft.
It's still possible that my dart hit the mark, and Guiton or Murray (if not Carr) will be the quarterback, in which case Farmer could trade down--perhaps more than once--and literally fix everything in one bold move.
In re that, please for God's sake stop reciting that mantra! Yes you CAN fix everything in one offseason! The Browns just sent five guys to the Pro Bowl, for crying out loud, and there are only 22 starters on a team!
They not only have a ton of cap space, but they're compelled to spend most of it on free agents. They don't need to replace all seventeen other guys you knuckleheads! Which defensive linemen do you want to kick to the curb?
Jackson's release does make ILB a bigger priority. I still insist that Roberts was partly a victim of Horton's system, which has some Tampa 2-like elements do it. He's a good run-and-hit linebacker. But I stipulate that yeah I'd like somebody good enough to put him in a depth/situational role.
The trade-down scenario could put Ray in position to nab CJ Mosely, and there are more DQwell Jacksons to be had down the list. Mosely is to this class of 3-4 ILB's what Watkins is to the wide recievers. I loved Jackson like everybody else, but CJ would be an improvement.
And no, and inside linebacker doesn't need to be huge.
Bortles, Bridgewater, or trade-down. That's my final offer. For now.
In particular the pursuit of Sam Shields rumor is just too obvious not to be true.
Will's verdict on the rumor that the Browns actually liked Derrick Carr best and would try to draft him at 26 was false, and I tend to agree.
Will felt that this is another smokescreen, but it could be much simpler. Some clown like me could speculate about it in his blog. Some other clown with a wider audience could steal it from him, writing it as an actual prediction.
Several other pundits could repeat this. Then some bigshot reads all this and calls some people they think are Browns insiders to ask about this. These people might say "It makes sense", or "Could be", and here we go!
The only reason Ray Farmer would leak this deliberately would be if he wants one of the top three quarterbacks, and wants to discourage anybody from trading ahead of him to pull the rug out from under him. I still consider the aforementioned rumor mill explanation more likely, especially since I DID propose it myself in an earlier posting,
This isn't to say that Ray Farmer doesn't like Carr. I jumped off the Carr wagon due to his below 50% completions on passes over 20 yards, and his lower percentage under pressure.
But then Geno Smith had some statistical flaws. EJ Manuel looked better, but not perfect. And Carr did excel at the Senior Bowl, all day every day during practice, and then in the game.
On the other hand, I've now learned that he personally was really putrid in his Bowl game.
So I just don't know. But I agree with Will: I doubt that Carr would be there at 26.
I'm encouraged by recent mock drafts which seem to have Bridgewater or Bortles for them at four. I keep hearing the "There's no Andrew Luck" mantra repeated, but if Ray Farmer believes in somebody, it won't matter what more glorified versions of me think--he'll take him.
I'm a little surprised and pleased to hear that the (probably true) reporting that Rubin will not be released. Doug Dieken emphasises leadership a lot, and I guess he knows what he's talking about. Rubin seems to be the leader of the defensive line.
Others, including my man Terry Pluto, keep talking about sack numbers, and I keep reminding everybody that this is a 3-4 defense. Rubin is making a lot of money for a guy who doesn't get sacks, but he can play any of the three line positions, he's been Mister Reliable, and he's still young.
He also gives the coaches a lot of flexibility. Kitchen has developed into a good nose tackle, and Hughes can do that in a pinch, but Rubin has more range and is quicker. Taylor and Rubin can each be moved around to find the best matchups.
Will is right, though: It's still possible that Rubin could be released during training camp. I said p o s s i b l e.
The guy nobody talks about on the defensive line is Billy Winn, who is just all over the place making plays, and is only going to get better. The Browns might have the best 3-4 DL in the NFL. Here's the one unit on the team they can ignore.
If Joe Banner was ready to let Alex Mack walk, I'm gladder than ever that he's gone. How can you not value the center? The guy who makes all the line calls, blocks linebackers in space, takes on nose tackles are you kidding me? Next to the left tackle, the center is the most important position on the offensive line!
When the Browns drafted Mack rather than Clay Matthews, everybody bashed that move. Not me. While I would have been just as happy with Clay, I understand how important center is.
Cody Norman thinks the Browns should draft Watkins at four.
I agree that would be awesome, but it would be a wasted pick. The draft and free agency are flooded with wide recievers right now. Two number ones would indeed be scary, but a number one reciever is not a need at all.
If the Browns didn't need guard(s), better TE depth, now two ILB's, cornerback, fullback, maybe running back, and--oh yeah quarterback, Watkins would be a great pick at number four.
Cody talks about Watkins taking pressure of Gordon and Cameron. He would, but that's not the job. The number one (Gordon) beats double coverage with an accurate quarterback. HE takes the pressure off the number two, who beats single coverage.
Watkins on this team is redundant. He'd make bigger plays than the other alternatives, but the difference he would make over a Baldwin or somebody else overall could be downright negligable. There is only one football.
It's even possible that a guy like Baldwin paired with Gordon could be better. Baldwin makes catches even with cornerbacks glued to him. Taking him down is just an ordeal. He'll be doing a lot of downfield blocking in the NFL.
I believe that Ray Farmer will draft Bortles or Bridgewater at four, or else trade down. With Watkins on the board, somebody without a Josh Gordon will absolutely be a dance partner, if a QB-hungry team isn't. Keep up the speculation, Cody!
Vic Carruci has it right. Make the most of this very deep draft.
It's still possible that my dart hit the mark, and Guiton or Murray (if not Carr) will be the quarterback, in which case Farmer could trade down--perhaps more than once--and literally fix everything in one bold move.
In re that, please for God's sake stop reciting that mantra! Yes you CAN fix everything in one offseason! The Browns just sent five guys to the Pro Bowl, for crying out loud, and there are only 22 starters on a team!
They not only have a ton of cap space, but they're compelled to spend most of it on free agents. They don't need to replace all seventeen other guys you knuckleheads! Which defensive linemen do you want to kick to the curb?
Jackson's release does make ILB a bigger priority. I still insist that Roberts was partly a victim of Horton's system, which has some Tampa 2-like elements do it. He's a good run-and-hit linebacker. But I stipulate that yeah I'd like somebody good enough to put him in a depth/situational role.
The trade-down scenario could put Ray in position to nab CJ Mosely, and there are more DQwell Jacksons to be had down the list. Mosely is to this class of 3-4 ILB's what Watkins is to the wide recievers. I loved Jackson like everybody else, but CJ would be an improvement.
And no, and inside linebacker doesn't need to be huge.
Bortles, Bridgewater, or trade-down. That's my final offer. For now.
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