More Rumors

Per this article of Fansided by Paul Noels, the Browns aren't interested in a quarterback with the fourth overall pick.  The source for this is former player and GM Matt Millen.

"From what I'm hearing"...

Millen is speculating on speculation.  Analysts are analyzing and trying to anticipate things.  There's a whole lot of "if I were Ray Farmer--" going on here, and I doubt that Matt has a shred of concrete information.

Ray himself started a lot of this up by simply saying "It might not be who you think it is" which, in the minds of many, meant that it could not possibly be Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel.  And yes, that statement is part of "from what I've been hearing"!

It's fine to speculate, as long as you label what you're writing as your own opinion, and are clear about your sources.

Noel went on to imply that he had "heard" that the Browns were enamored with Watkins at four.

This I doubt.  This is another basic math problem.  I'm not sure, but I suspect that Ray Farmer is good at basic math:

There is only one football.  Many teams don't even have a number one wide reciever, but the Browns do.  Having two number one wide recievers would be awesome, but also redundant and inefficient.

That's inefficient in this context; The Browns current roster, and this current free agent/draft crop.  Wide reciever is possibly historicly deep, with the draft being deep in general.

Elementary math says you let somebody (who can't add and subtract as well as you can) buy that pick from you and move down.  Get more players.

Here's another way of looking at it: At number one wide reciever you have one: Gordon.  At number two wide reciever you have zero.  You have other zeros: Two at inside linebacker, maybe two at guard, one at backup tight end, one at cornerback, etc.

You add up the zeros and see that you can turn two of those into ones, instead of just one, if you trade down.

One of the reasons Bill Belichick has kept the Patriots competitive is that in most drafts, he trades down--sometimes multiple times.  He even starts with a sixth rounder, turns it into a fifth rounder the following year, and a fourth the year after that, and keeps doing that.

That's far, far too sophisticated for most Browns fans.  That's math 102.

Beyond the math of it, look at where the Browns will be at four: There are three top quarterbacks, Clowney, and Watson.  Five players will be in high demand.  Few will fear that Ray will draft Clowney, but the other four guys are potential Browns targets.

I should mention this here, as it's often overlooked: When a team tries to trade up to get a player a team ahead of them wants, that team will demand more if they're even willing to give that player up.  So they'll skip them and talk to the team drafting ahead of them.

If the Browns are willing to give up Watkins or a quarterback, they will definitely have that option. 

In my previous blog, I mentioned Peter Smith's yen for Odell Beckham over Watson.  I personally talked about Mike Evans.  The columns today are loaded with free agent wide reciever ideas for the Browns.

It's true that Watson and Gordon would terrify defensive coordinators league-wide, so that even if (as I believe) the Browns land at least one starting veteran wide reciever prior to the draft, they'll still fear that Farmer will take him--or that the Raiders will, etc.

So what is a high second round pick worth in this draft?  It could be a stud inside linebacker, cornerback, guard, tight end, or Murray the quarterback (or that other QB).

What would the sixth or seventh pick in this draft be worth? Khalil Mack.  Mike Evans.  Who's the best cornerback in this draft?  Could they now move up from 26?  Could they turn one of the second rounders into a first rounder in '14?  

See?  Math 101!

I still think it's as likely Bortles or Bridgewater as anybody else, and admit that I have no idea.  If it's not, I still hope it's a trade-down and then Khalil Mack.

This was all opinion.