Trading Places

I was pretty stunned by Tony Grossi's latest mock draft.  At four overall, he has the Browns drafting Greg Robinson (who would be an instastarter at guard, and projects to mutate into a franchise left tackle).

Drafting an offensive lineman here wasn't the stunning part.  The stunning part was that he had Watkins still on the board, and being drafted by the grateful Oakland Raiders right behind them.

After recovering my senses and thinking about it for awhile, I can't knock this projection too hard.  

As I've repeated ad nauseum, Watkins fulfills a fantasy, but not a need.  The need at WR is for a second wide-out to complement Josh Gordon--not for a second number one wide reciever.

On the other hand, guard is a need.  One of the Browns youngsters could emerge as a good or even excellent zone guard in his second season, but the odds are against two of them doing so.  It just rarely works that way.

Robinson has the requisite athleticism and mobility, and is also a road grader.  He could play either right or left guard.  If Mitchell Schwartze had not made rapid and sustained progress in the later majority of his second year in the NFL to become one of the better right tackles in the league ARE YOU LISTENING OBLIVIA, we could put him at right tackle, too.

This is also a move with an eye to an eventual future: This is Joe Thomas's heir apparent.

This move isn't sexy, but would have an even bigger impact than Watkins would.  I know that sounds crazy, but that's because we become starstruck big play addicts, and we know that that's who Watkins is.

But even the best wide recievers rarely catch more than 6-8 passes in a game.  In Shanahan's offense, this is especially true.  This team will use Cameron like a wide reciever and three reciever sets a lot.

Kyle will try to run the ball more than half the time, as well.  He's the exception in today's NFL.

Also, while Watkins runs every pattern quite well, the slants and crosses Kyle will use a lot of aren't his forte.  He's also a good run-after catch guy, but not like Gordon or other wide-outs in this draft (like Mike Evans).

Meanwhile, Robinson in a zone system would blast HUGE, gaping holes for Ben Tate, and consistently help provide Hoyer with a pocket to step into.

Especially if one of the younger guys emerges, or they can draft another top guard in the third or fourth round (not uncommon, by the way), the Browns could come out with one of the best (not better, but best) offensive lines in the NFL.

I'm not advocating drafting Greg Robinson fourth overall.  Just defending Tony, and saying it makes sense.

I still favor trading down.  Not "if possible", because it will be possible.  There will be offers.  Other teams need Watkins, a quarterback, or even this player more than the Browns do, and will be willing to pay for it.

The Browns still have several real needs.  Wide reciever, guard, inside linebacker, cornerback, fullback.  Khalil Mack, Bortles and/or Bridgewater, or even Watkins or Robinson could still be there after a modest trade-down.  Even going down further, there's just a ton of talent almost everywhere in this draft.

Charlie Casserly suggested trading picks onto the future.  He was talking about peddling the second first-rounder, but I say why not the first pick?  If Farmer does take a quarterback later, he's taking a risk with both that player and with the not-yet-vetted Brian Hoyer.  Next year's quarterbacks so far look better than this year's, and if the Browns need to make a move, they'll need ammo.

I like Tony's pick of Ryan Shazier at 26...provided the Browns haven't already traded down and grabbed Khalil Mack.  CJ Mosely can take on and shed blockers better, but Shazier is faster, and may have a higher upside.

If they draft Khalil Mack, he'd play where Jackson played.  If it's a guy like Shazier, he'll replace Robertson as the run-and-hit guy.

Just imagine one or two trade-downs, maybe even five slots to ninth overall.

Going by the value chart, which is a rough guide (so stipulated), 4 is worth 1800 points. 9 is worth 1350.  Based on the chart, the trade would net that team's second round pick.  Leverage could command more, or they could even do something wild, like take a third rounder this year and a third next season.

We can speculate a lot on what the Browns could then do with 26 and two high second rounders, but who might be there at 9?

Derrick Carr is one (and I don't believe he lasts to 26).  Khalil Mack is a longshot but possible.  Jake Matthews, maybe.  The best tight end, Ebron.  CJ Mosely.  Maybe not Bortles, but Bridgewater maybe.  Barr.  Evans.  Zack Martin.  Giving Ray Farmer the benefit of the doubt, any of these players would make a big difference.

So would the player they'd get in the trade in the second round.  That could be Xavier Su'a-Filo (guard), Odell Beckham, CB Antone Exum or Bradley Roby--another starter and another upgrade.

Ray Farmer has made it clear: There's no more rebuilding going on here.  He's going after the division right tf NOW, and he'll want to fill every remaining hole on this team.  That means more players, rather than one who is a little better than the guy he gets a whole freaking round lower.

MATH 101.