More Wide Misperceiver Corrections

Tom Reed is pretty good, usually, but his most recent article on the Browns needs, and ways to address them, was shallow.

He was roundly bashed by some commentors for bringing up a potential trade for A J McCarron, but this gets smarter people thinking.  A J had some warts on his college scouting reports, but performed well in his rookie season in relief of Andy Dalton.  Indeed, some Bengals fans think he should remain the starter.

This is a case of Hue knows best.  The Bengals are unlikely to consider any reasonable trade, as they don't expect to draft high for a long time, quarterbacks don't grow on trees, and McCarron could, indeed, displace Dalton as he continues to improve.

Other comments called Goff Alex Smith, said all these quarterbacks are third rounders, that the Browns shouldn't draft any of them, and that any quarterback drafted should start from day one.

I try to remember a time when I was that stupid.  Maybe I was.  At any rate, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Carr.  

The Goff/Smith comparison doesn't rate a response.  Dumb people think being controversial makes people think you're smart (third rounders...yeah).

No Head Coach wants to start a quarterback until he is ready.  Kosar came from Miami and a pro style system.  Even then, he didn't play until Danielson got hurt.  All of these quarterbacks played for small schools, and most in spread offenses.

If Mohammud Ali had fought for the Heavyweight belt right out of the Olympics, he would have been destroyed, and perhaps never heard from again.  Duh.

McCown, and even Austin Davis, played well here, and starting a raw quarterback immediately is completely unnecessary.

And Tom was right about the need for one.

He was wrong about the need for another wide receiver.  He was right to point out the risk with Josh Gordon, but completely ignored not only Terrelle Pryor, but Brian Hartline too.

This involves analysis (or "analytics" if you insist):  The odds of Josh Gordon staying out of trouble, based on information to date, and playing well are around 75%.  The odds of Brian Hartline remaining healthy and playing well are about the same.  The odds if the Invisible Man (Pryor) being retained, improving, and making a significant contribution as a receiver by midseason are 50% at worst.

The odds of both Pryor and Gordon failing in 2016 are below 30%.  Under those circumstances, you don't burn a second round pick on a wide receiver not named Miller.

Reed mentioned Marvin Jones, and I'd buy that for a dollar.  He's really good, but will be very expensive, especially considering that the Browns don't need him.  Tom sort of dismissed Mohammud Sanu, since Hue Jackson used him mostly out of the slot.

Here we go again: Sanu was a productive outside receiver until the faster, more dangerous Jones displaced him.  Hue tweaked things to get the reliable Sanu on the field at the same time.  Sanu is too big for nickel backs.  Brian Hartline has been used the same way.

Unlike Brown, Sanu could be a free agent bargain, is effective outside, and could be a target for the Browns.

Tom was right about offensive linemen, since the Browns could lose a couple, and Erving isn't a sure thing.  But he was indiscriminant about who the Browns should sign or draft.

Zone and man offensive linemen are different.  Tom is probably among those who think Square Peg Jackson will run a man scheme because he has in the past, but I think there will be more zone.  That's based not only in common sense, but also on the offensive assistants he hired.

Either way, the Browns will need to settle on a scheme, best adapted to the probable current roster, before they target offensive linemen in free agency or the draft.

The new Browns staff will also pay more attention to age than Tom does, specifically with offensive linemen.  They're trying to build a team here, and you don't do that with 33 year old newcomers.  Chemistry and continuity is more important, and takes longer to establish, in the offensive line than at any other position.  

The Browns could draft a running back, but have no need to.  Tom himself spoke highly of Isaiah Crowell and how he was underused, and of Duke Johnson, right before calling running back a position of need.

More on that: You can decide to "stick with the run" all you want, but every second and eight calls for a pass.  And once you're down by ten or thirteen points with time running down, you have to throw the ball more.

Tom has this annoying habit of ignoring all these situational factors and thinking that the coaches decided not to run the ball.

Another thing is this: It's true that many running backs rack up better stats when they run twenty or more times.  This is substantially because when the run is succeeding, teams run more.  When it isn't, they run less.

More Analytics: Conclusions drawn from a "surface scan" of crude, general statistics are almost invariably wrong.  The Browns running backs are fine.

In my last entry, I overlooked another player that the Browns might like from the Senior Bowl.  OLB Reggie Ragland.  He is more like Scott Solomon than anybody else, though.

He may or may not flesh out as a great passrusher.  He played inside in college, but once again, Solomon could play inside for Ray Horton here.

I wouldn't complain if he was the best available in the second round and they drafted Ragland.  He could play two downs in the NFL immediately, and Mike Mayock thinks he's ultimately a three down player.

Solomon and Ragland are big guys who can run, and can line up anywhere.  These are guys who can take on and defeat blocks, have a nose for the ball, and can stop the run, often moving forward and with authority.

Ragland does have unknowns about him too: He played inside and rarely blitzed in college.  That's why the Senior Bowl coaches put him outside.

I finally saw a Wentz highlight film.  On most of his big (non-running) plays, his receivers weren't really even open.  They had guys glued to them.  None of them were very big, either.  One of his favorite targets was a running back or really short tight end.

At any rate, his accuracy was amazing.  He put the ball where only his receiver had a chance at it.

His was clearly not a timing offense, but reports from Mobile say he has no problems with anticipation.

One scout knocked him for overthrowing vertical routes in the end zone, but another scout said that was from day one, and he was throwing to strange receivers.  See, the second scout was more analytical, ok?