Analytics

Analytics, in a nutshell, uses statistics and numbers to discern patterns and figure stuff out.  It's been used for decades, if not centuries, by intelligence analysts, traders, and gamblers.  Specialized calculators have even been built and sold to sports bettors.

I use analytics when I harp on you not to use season-long statistics, especially on players in their first two seasons.  And when I tell you this wide receiver can beat that cornerback, regardless of how they look on paper.

The kind of analytics Paul Depodesta (the real "Moneyball" creator of the baseball scouting application--who helped the Mets win the last World Series) uses are a lot deeper than I or most others can get.

Advanced analytics is pure mathematics.  DePodesta's first love was football, and he was a college wide receiver, but that doesn't even matter, as This article helps explain.

To my knowledge, there isn't anybody like DePodesta in pro football, so nabbing the real father of baseball scouting analytics isn't crazy at all.

On a more primitive scale, a...friend of mine simply used one set of stats and algorithms on horses and another on football wagering...and option trading yadda-yadda.  Numbers are numbers.

A comparatively crude version of analytics could be applied to my two most recent blog subjects: What position to draft second overall, and which quarterback to draft.

Analytics is how we know that the most important position is quarterback, and the second most important is passrusher.  Paul DePodesta just needs to know the perameters of the given analysis to be performed, and how to weight the various factors...and how those factors interrelated...and uh, stuff.

It will get deep.  Even deeper than this, but in a different way.  HE will consider the three passrushers on this roster, how they were used (or misused), Orchard's last few games vs his first few, how Solomon was used before he got here etc. etc. etc. (Etc cubed to the third power or so, actually).

He'll require a lot of input from the scouting and new coaching staffs to fill in the blanks, but he can also look at the Seahawks and Patriots to learn a lot of that too.

He'll run models to see how they pan out.  That is, he'll go back a few drafts to test his early programs on those young players, and see how well his predictions would have panned out for them.  

Paul will refine and refine his systems using historical data, and he's got the whole off season to do it.

He'll compare the Mannings to Wilson to Palmer to Big Ben to Brady etc in search of common elements for a baseline, then recategorize (ie "running" vs "stationary"), then dig into...

Well happily he's fascinated by this stuff and he'll be a huge help.

Analytics will help a lot opponent-by-opponent too, as he'll have consistent programs to break down matchups, strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies.

Yes, the coaches do that, and some are really good at it too, but just imagine if Monday morning (or maybe Sunday night) the coaches can open the latest file and have it all pre-dissected for them (sans "hunches", feelings, or misconceptions.)

Analytics isn't all there is, of course.  It can't tell you if a guy really loves football or if he's another Johnny.  Analytics might say this is the best prospect for this system at this position, or the best overall, or the best given the native talent.  It can't get inside a guy's head.

That's why scouts will always be important.  But of note here: Bill Belichick relies on analytics.  He just does them in his head.

...Analytics can help you find your next head coach, btw...

Here's an excellent article about this hire by Craig Lyndall, who I suspect read this blog before he wrote it dammit.