I'm optimistic that Hue Jackson will promise Joe Thomas not to cut good players, and to run a blocking scheme well suited to everybody on the offensive line (and his lead running back) so that he won't ask to be traded.
I've also said that Sashi and Paul might still accept an offer for Joe, if it was good enough.
The only thing the 2015's top rated left tackle has going against him is the fact that he's thirty. That's not old for a left tackle who's never been seriously injured, and he should still be elite in the third and last season of his current contract.
As I've said, he couldn't be replaced, period. Losing him would be a permanent downgrade. Draft the best left tackle in this draft, and you have to cross your fingers that he wouldn't downright suck as a rookie.
So why even consider trading Joe? Well, I mentioned his age. Hue, Sashi, and Paul want to build a dynasty. Joe can probably keep going for three or more years, but then he's gone. Anybody they draft now, assuming they draft well (remember: Farmer is gone DO YOU UNDERSTAND ME?), can stick around long after the team has become good.
Draft picks now should be worth more in the long run, even though, in Joe's case, they'd be worth less in the immediate future.
I've made all the arguments not to trade Joe myself. The most important two are the possibility that it could cost the Browns Mitchell Schwartze as well, and the fact that a rookie quarterback needs that backside protected.
Still, a real analyst must consider alternatives, and step away from the fact that Joe Thomas is possibly his favorite person, along with being a great player.
In neon lights, several things glare at me here:
1: Goff is, right now, a cut above the other quarterbacks. Tennessee won't draft him, but has to consider every offer to trade down. Those who say that the Browns have Goff nailed down aren't thinking. Even a little.
The only way to guarantee Goff is to have the number one pick, period.
2: The Titans are expected by many to draft a left tackle to protect their human punching bag, Marcus Mariota. He tore the teams who couldn't pressure him a new one, even as a rookie.
They play in the AFC South. The Texans are pretty good, the Jaguars are improving, but the Colts were having problems even with a healthy Luck. Joe Thomas could put the Titans in contention in a fairly weak division.
3: The Titans are trying to adapt their offense to Mariota's unique skill-set. This includes read-option and rollouts. Joe Thomas is exceptionally athletic, in a way that very few left tackles are. Mobility is a big asset in this type of offense.
4: Johnny Manziel fits the same offense. If the Titans wanted to roll the dice on a head case, he could sweeten the deal.
Casey Drottar's lowball estimate of Joe's value aside, Thomas was picked first overall and is now a plug-and-play veteran, worth every bit of that. Unlike anybody the Titans would draft, he can't miss. Nor are any of these prospects like him: Joe Thomas is a once in a decade type of talent.
What could the Browns get? The number one pick, and maybe a third rounder in 2017.
You need to think about that. This would leave the Browns with Jared Goff and the second overall pick.
Waittilnextyear, at least before I pointed out passrushers already on the roster, would go straight for Bosa. But he's a smart guy, so I know he gets that without Big Joe, left tackle is now more important.
Most fans would jump on Tunsil, but CBS.com lists five tackles going in the first round. I don't yet know how good they really are, but based on the raw math here, a trade-down from the de facto first overall pick might well be the way to go.
Much goes into this: Pass protection is pass protection, and would have to be the first priority. But the run-blocking scheme is the next big factor. A zone-blocker can be less powerful at the point of attack. A man-blocker needn't be as athletic.
The Browns could move down, pick up another second round pick, and still land the second or third best left tackle.
Of course, Tennessee is also rebuilding, and might want to do the exact same thing themselves. In fact, if I were them, that's exactly what I would do.
But I've watched a lot of drafts, and am always amazed by how little imagination most GMs have. There's a decent chance that Tennessee would give up the first overall pick and a 2017 third rounder for Joe Thomas, then laugh at those stupid Browns.
In the end, Joe Thomas could yield:
A franchise quarterback, his career-long bodyguard, and at least two third round picks the Browns don't currently have.
Roll that into the 11 draft picks the Browns expect to have in this draft. Most of the extras are compensatory picks, generally in the fourth round.
Those can't be traded, but the Browns picks atop each round can be, so picks could be traded to move up, or for more picks in 2017.
If you're rebuilding a team, this is how you do it. The Browns (in reality) don't have many needs, but could upgrade and use depth almost everywhere.
I'm still torn on the Joe Thomas issue, but I'm pretty sure the Browns hierarchy won't want to settle for an unproven Lynch, and don't know what Wentz will show in the Senior Bowl.
You can count on Paul DePodesta looking into this, thoroughly. Joe Thomas is a gem, but he's the only player on this entire roster who is redeemable for a boatload of draft picks.
Business is business.
No comments:
Post a Comment