Thursday, January 14, 2016

Browns Are Young. Getting Better.

One thing Memorex Morons don't comprehend is that young players tend to improve with experience.  The Browns have a lot of them.  Per NFL.com, the 2015 Browns had fifteen players with "zero" experience.  That's around 23% of their roster.  These are the players who will make the biggest improvements going into 2016.

I'll list some of the more prominent ones here, along with what I think they might achieve in 2016:

E.J. Bibbs: TE/HB/FB was active on and off this season, and only caught one pass for seven yards.  He was a good tight end in college, but at 6'2" is vertically challenged at that position in the NFL.  He's a solid in-line blocker, excells blocking in space, and has good speed and excellent hands.  Very good run after catch guy.

It's hard to say what Hue Jackson will do with Bibbs, especially since there's another new guy a lot like him crowding the field (Malcom Johnson).  Bibbs is taller, and a better receiver.  Johnson was projected as more of a true fullback.  Tough call here: One or both could be released, or one could see increased playing time.
Malcom Johnson: Might as well knock him out.  He did some lead-blocking and was targeted a few times.  He's a little shorter than E.J. and lighter (258 vs 235) but faster, and a proven receiver himself.
Malcolm is more of an athletic fullback than a utility guy like E.J., and from what I've heard didn't impress much as a blocker.  Who knows what Hue will make out of these two?

Darius Jennings: Another microscopic wide receiver who proved something late in the season.  Really a gem of a player, but the roster probably won't have room for him.  Too bad.  But this guy belongs in the NFL.

Luke Lundy: At 6', 230 he's called a running back, but could be a fullback.  He's not very fast, but is a brutal runner with a little shake thrown in. 
Hue Jackson will have his own ideas of how to best exploit all of these players, and we're starting with a clean slate here.  Lundy was inactive this season, but I wouldn't write him off.
Still, like the first two guys, he could well get his walking papers.

Cam Erving: Everybody knows he sucked at left guard.  But everybody else ignored the fact that he played better at right guard, and might even have achieved mediocrity is his last start there.
Ideally, he will bite his lip and sign up for LeCharles DeSade Bentley's chamber of horrors in the off season and come back ready to replace Alex Mack at his best position: Center.
Because he was a Farmer draft pick, and all the cool kids were bashing Farmer, lots of people were eager to condemn the highest-rated center in the draft as a rookie, but that's just plain dumb.  In time, he could become even better than Amack.

Danny Shelton: I wish he'd lose a few pounds.  He was so-so as a rookie.  He got too high too often, and made other technical mistakes which he should get ironed out before 2016.
I strongly suspect that Mike Pettine influenced this pick too.
Here again, we don't know how much Pettine's complex scheme, or the way Shelton was used in it, stifled Danny.
Now we don't know what defensive scheme will be used, either.  Danny can play inside in any scheme, be it 3-4 or 4-3, but isn't as good a passrusher as the other guys here, which is why he probably won't play on passing downs.
If there is a switch to a 4-3, Shelton is a possible trade.  He will improve, and could become a Pro Bowl player (even in a 4-3), but in reality the Browns are stacked at DT, and the other guys are better fits.
I only said possible trade, ok?  Sashi probably couldn't get enough value back for him to justify not just keeping him here, and if it remains a 3-4 it wouldn't be considered.
He probably sticks around and plays 60+ % of the downs.  And gets a couple sacks and stuff.

Xavier Cooper: He didn't do a lot as a rookie, but he's just loaded with talent.  I say he's going to be a stud in any system.  I can't wait to see him back here.
Ideally, the new coaches will let him attack, because that's what he does best.  His first step is like Micheal Dean Perry's, and his hands are really fast.  Mark my words on this guy!

Duke Johnson: Not much more to say here.  Unlike the other guys, he won't improve all that much, because he's a running back and he can't.  He'll certainly get better in protection, and probably run more precise routes from the slot.  He's mostly already there, and just needs the opportunities.

Nate Orchard: Started getting sacks in his last three games.  Coming on strong.  A switch to 4-3 merely moves him to defensive end.  Excellent chance to start, certain to play a lot.  Probably a star, starting next season.  Another Farmer steal.

Ibrahim Campbell.  Got some good playing time in.  Very talented safety.  Not just a box safety.  He can cover.  If Gipson leaves (or when he is injured), Campbell will duke it out with Poyer to start.
For that matter, Whitner could leave, too.
Note: Poyer isn't a very good cornerback, but he's a good safety.

Charles Gaines: Played well at cornerback, but this position will be heavily contested next season. Another rookie with an unpronouncable name (not listed here) came in injured, but had been projected as a first round pick before the injury.  Gaines will almost certainly be on the field quite a bit, but there are so very many cornerbacks here!
Gaines has one edge: He's 5'10".

Four players are listed with one year of experience.  The standout is:

Jamie Meder: This guy is just a plain old football player.  He got limited playing time this season, and got one sack.  He's 6'3", 295 but very strong, and uses leverage very well.  He pushes much bigger guys around.  Not real quick or fast, but great instincts.  He's one of the guys who could make Shelton expendable in a 4-3.
Definitely a guy on the come.  Probably not a starter, but he'll get his share of plays in any defense.

There are nine players who will be entering their third seasons.  This is when most players just enter their primes.

Glenn Winston: The tallest of the running backs.  I frankly have no idea.  Hue might not care for him like Mike Pettine did.  ?

Chris Kirksey: Probable starter.  Weak side 4-3 or inside 3-4. He hasn't been very special yet, but he's still on the rise and has a nice foundation to build on.  Roberts is a similar player with more experience, and the two push each other hard.  It's a nice setup because they can rotate and stay fresh.
The defensive system will matter a lot here, because Kirksey can blitze as well as cover.  He hasn't been "sent" much so far.

Joel Bitonio: I may be the only one who saw that Bitonio was getting his ass handed to him before he got injured, but I'm not worried about that.  Every opposing defense flooded left guard on most downs because Cleveland was a 100% left-handed running team.  He did get bull-rushed, and that's on him.  But I don't blame him for not being able to block two guys at once.
He was great as a rookie and should be fine coming back.  Maybe he'll go to LeCharles too.  Very bright future, maybe including a Pro Bowl.  I'm certain that Hue Jackson will use whatever blocking system best accents these players' strengths and minimizes their weaknesses.

Isaiah Crowell: The bigger receivers, blocking refinements, and running to both sides of the field will help him a lot.  This guy can be special.  You'll see.

Pierre Desir: He played well early, then started getting beat.  He's a matchup guy who you put on tall receivers.  Better at zone than in man, because he's not very fast.  Potential safety.
Desir has proven he can play.  He could become a great safety, but will never be an elite cornerback.  He's not as good as he will become, and he should stick around and be used situationally.

Stone Hands Gabriel: Buh-bye!

Justin Gilbert: This could go one of two ways.  He's used up his rookie and sophomore mulligans, so he either gets a head-extraction operation in the off season, or he's a GMF.
I'm still expecting him to turn into a good or great player, but as we've seen with Johnny, sometimes nothing can fix punkdom.
The defensive system matters here: If Gilbert is told "cover this guy" and isn't required to make reads, he'll have a better chance.
I don't know.

K'waun Williams: Listed as a free safety (?) he's really good, especially on slot guys, but it's getting so crowded at cornerback who knows?

Ok I didn't include Johnny Manziel here, and may have missed some other injured guys, but altogether there are (give or take) 28 players, or around 55% of the roster, with less than three season's experience.

Come next training camp, a new Coach and systems probably mean retaining at least eight draft picks and undrafted free agents.

Some of those on the list I used will be released, but then Whitner, Dansby, Gipson, and a few other veterans are at risk, and most likely at least three to five will hit the trail.

Net-net all this means that probably 32 or 33 players will fit this "new guy" category come game one.

Is any of this sinking in?  Remember: Young players tend to improve with experience.  This very young roster means that the overall talent on this team will be in the steepest part of it's growth curve next season.

By the way, Terrelle Pryor should be included here.  He's almost a rookie at his new position, and will make a big leap next season (yes he will).

This is just another reason for you not to keep expecting doom and gloom for the Browns.  It's downright stuporstitious.

T H I N K

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