Monday, January 4, 2016

Oh Well.

Firing Ray Farmer wasn't fair, as you will see over time as I track the young players he's acquired and rub the lynch mob's nose in it, but I get it.  A new head coach will want somebody of his own choosing.

As I illustrated in my last entry, Seattle and Pittsburgh have been exceptional with talent acquisition for a long time, but I should include the Bengals, Packers, Cardinals, and Ravens.

In Baltimore, Ozzie has hit a bump, but he'll be back.  I'd rank these teams ahead of Ray Farmer's Browns, but not many others.  He would have done better had he not overpaid Dwayne Bowe (by a LOT) in guaranteed money and drafted a 4,000 yard running back.  His smart moves still massively outnumber the bad ones.

But it is what it is.  This time there's a better chance Jimmy will get it right.  Sashi Brown isn't a football guy, but it's good to have a tiebreaker between a Head Coach and personnel guy.  Sashi's background is business.  Salary cap, contracts, negotiations.  That's good.

Rumors that Manziel was in Las Vegas are unconfirmed, but that he was AWOL and unreachable are confirmed.  He just couldn't wait one more week.

Ok.  No trade-downs.  Draft Goff.  

But I wouldn't be in a big hurry to dump Johnny for nothing or next to nothing.  I'm sure Sasha agrees.  That's why I'm glad he's in charge.  Businessmen think with their brains.

Chip Kelly wasn't actually a bad X's and O's coach.  He turned the Eagles around quickly, but then messed it up for himself with inexplicable personnel moves.  He still would have done better this season had he not lost Sam Bradford for much of the season.

Still, there are a lot of warts here.  The accusations of racism I take with a huge grain of salt.  But it seems he is inflexible and aloof (except with quarterbacks).

And as I mentioned, he tries to force players into systems, rather than to adapt systems to players.

I have a feeling that he'd want at least "a voice" in talent acquisition again, but in his case that would mean overt control.

Control seems to be the operative word with Chip Kelly, and he could make a big mess.

Doug Marone or Hue Jackson are good options...I think.  Adam Gace I don't know about.  It's early.

Jimmy Haslam talked about a "several year" rebuilding program, and blamed the Browns lack of success on lack of talent.  He's nuts.  But that's a good thing to say if you want to lower the mob's expectations and implicitly tell the next gm and coach they'll be given more rope than the last guys got.

Color Alex Mack gone.  Joe Thomas is weary of the changes, but he's waiting to see who will replace Mike Pettine.  Schwartze and others will become free agents.  But there is time to "sell" them, and possibly re-sign some of them.

The team is all set defensively.  Weakness against the run was more scheme and coaching than talent, and the secondary was annihilated by injury, inexperience, and an overly complex system.

Offensively there will be a few holes to fill, but Pryor and Gordon will be coming back.

As I watched the Steelers game, I texted that Pryor would be great.  Then after one great catch, he tried to body-catch one he should have reached for, and everybody got all over me.  This was after he ran the wrong pattern on another one.

So the "Pryor experiment" is now over for some of you.  He has proven he can't be a wide receiver.

Wow.  Just...wow.  And by the way, "will be" great isn't the same as "is" great.  Please check your grammar readers.  

This team doesn't need to be rebuilt.  There is a strong foundation here, even if a 4-3 defense is brought in.

Johnny has made quarterback (at least for insurance) a priority with his latest childish and irksome actions, but most of the other parts are/will be in place for the new coach.  

To be crystal clear here, I did not say that there are zero weaknesses or that most positions couldn't or shouldn't be upgraded.  I did not say that this team is as talented as the Seattle Seahawks, or even could be on less than two offseasons DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?

I just said that the talent will be here to be competitive and not suck in 2016.

The new coach/gm can't trust Johnny Manziel, or his health, and second overall isn't to be squandered, so I can guarantee even now that the Browns will draft a quarterback.

Connor Cook is the most NFL-ready, but his team beat Ohio State without him, denting his reputation.  Cardale Jones pretty much failed.

This put Paxton Lynch and Goff a tier above everybody else, with Goff holding a consensus edge.

Those who think the Titans will draft a left tackle first overall are deluded.  This draft is eyeball-deep in left tackles, and by trading down they could just about rebuild their team in one off season.

In this draft, that makes it almost certain that some team will trade up to number one for a quarterback.

Many would "settle" for Paxton Lynch, who is bigger, has a stronger arm, and is more athletic.

I personally would do all I could to draft Goff.  In spite of his spread system, Goff has already demonstrated the mental tools to play in the NFL.  Being fair, Lynch hasn't been called upon to do that.  He might do fine over time.  Or he might not.

Either way, Goff is much more advanced, mechanically as well as mentally.  He's also a much safer bet in this high stakes game.

In perspective, Mariota and Winston were both better prospects, and by rights neither of these two should be drafted this high.  But that's because the Browns are drafting number two, and that's just how it works.  Utterly predictable.

Still, it's like comparing Kosar to Marino and Elway.  Indeed, Goff reminds me a lot of Bernie.  He has more starting experience, whereas Bernie played in a pro style system vs top competition.  Goff has a quicker over-the-top delivery and better mobility, but it's the mind that is similar.

How the Browns get there (if they agree with me that Goff has significantly more to offer) I don't know.  

It could involve Manziel...if he's not already too radioactive.  I hate to say this, but it could even involve Joe Thomas, especially if he gets disgusted enough to ask to be traded.  Man, that would suck...

But Tennessee would have to take less or give more.  Joe and second overall pick--that's a joke.  

But I can't think about that more right now.  Joe is great.  I want him to retire here.

Now we can look forward to the real Browns season.  The off season.




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