Pending Roster Changes

As Tony Grossi opines, new head coaches want their own players, so rosters are torn down.

That's an overstatement, unless the new coach is a dumbass.

To prevent such dumbassitude, Sashi Brown was given final authority over the roster.  This was smart.  As I said in that entry, Brown won't be picking players.  

Tony's predictions on who stays and who goes were nevertheless very sensible.

Sashi was installed so quickly to give him a chance to negotiate with those pending free agents the Browns may want to retain.  Unfortunately, it may be too late for some of them.  Mack had his mind made up a long time ago.  Gipson will probably demand too much, in view of his injury history.  Roberts might stick around, but I don't know.  Bowe is gone, as he should have been gone in training camp.  (In re that, yes they'd have to eat his salary, but what does that have to do with it?)

But Tony expects Joe Thomas to be traded.  That's possible, since he would be worth a fortune in draft picks, but it still doesn't add up.

In an earlier article, Tony said that Thomas was as down as he'd ever seen him, so perhaps he expects Joe to ask to be traded.

But Joe hasn't said that yet.  He has said that he wants to see "what will happen".  He will check out the new head coach and his system.  

Paul DePodesta will like Thomas fine.  His contract is fine, and he's young enough to last those three years.

But I've learned to trust Tony.  He's correct too often.

What would that mean?  Well, it had better mean a first round pick, and probably a second as well for starters.

Here again, we have Sashi in charge.  He won't get hosed.  There will be no trades for the sake of trades.

My own predictions otherwise mirror Tony's.  Mack and Schwartze are probably gone, meaning that Cam Erving will move back to center.  Hopefully, he will have run through LeCharles Bentley's crucible and return as a stud.  Right tackle will be unsettled.

Gordon and Pryor will return as two of the wide receivers.  Tony thinks Benjamin will stay, and I think so too.  He shouldn't get any ridiculous offers, so Sashi can afford him.

Tony didn't mention Brian Hartline, but he's cheap and productive and there's no reason to expect his departure.  Other than those four, who knows?

The backfield doesn't need an overhaul.  Barnidge already extended at tight end.  Other than him, however, nobody is guaranteed anything.

Manziel (sigh) looks like a GMF (I hope for a fourth rounder...to Dallas so they won't jump ahead of the Browns in the draft).  McCown stays.  They won't want to start him--can't rely on his health.  But he's like a quarterback coach and mentor, and probably the best backup in the NFL.

On a Joe Thomas trade, Tony said that the Browns had tried to trade him during the season.  That's false.  Ray Farmer said he'd listen to offers.  That's all.  He might have pulled the trigger for two first round picks.  Finally, Farmer is gone.

So Tony might have missed this one.  Unless Joe asks for a trade, or somebody makes an offer they can't refuse, Joe stays.

So the offense might be largely intact.  Left tackle is possible, but the more likely gaps will be quarterback and right tackle (and yes Erving will be fine).

Defensively, Tony sees Dansby and Gipson going, Armonty Bryant staying.  Armonty took Adderol quit making a big deal out of it.  Ibrahim Campbell is highly underrated, and I believe Roberts stays.  It's hardly an overhaul.

Calls for a 4-3 defense by Tony and his echoes are misguided.  4-3s do tend to be slightly better vs the run, but it's not significant.  Both defenses work. 

But a switch to a 4-3 is possible.  The Browns have the people to make that work.  Solomon could be a very good strong side linebacker, or possibly even middle linebacker.   Middle linebacker might be in question, but the Browns are eyeball deep in defensive tackles.  Kirklees on the weak side. Bryant, Orchard, and Kruger fit as defensive ends.

Whitner is another old guy the Browns have to back up.  The new coach might try Desir there.

There will be changes, but not a complete rebuild.  As I mentioned in my previous post, this is likely why Brown and DePodesta were hired so quickly: They won't hire a coach who can't or won't adapt his schemes to the talent he has.

Some examples: A coach likes man-blocking.  He comes here and decides Erving isn't strong enough.  Joe is so-so.  Bitonio?  Let's trade those guys and get some hogs.

Quarterback is the first order of business.  DePodesta will help identify the best candidates, and the new head coach will have a huge say in this (which is another selling point for this job).  That's the lynchpin for any offense, so he can get a quarterback who fits his ideal offense immediately.  He'll have Pryor and Gordon, so he can install his own passing scheme no matter what it is.

4-3 or 3-4 or hybrid.  Most of the people are here already.

Verily, analytics could turn off some of the top coaching candidates, but as many experienced head coaches fail as assistants do.  There is no mandate to hire somebody just because you've heard of him.

Analytics: This guy ran a west coast, then a spread verticle when his players changed.  This guy ran a 3-4 then a 4-3, cover 2 then a Tampa 2.  You can spot the adaptable, creative guys, and even determine how well they work with other people.

Most likely, the new coach WILL be a college coach or NFL coordinator, because the blockheads will eliminate themselves.

Too bad! Every great coach was an assistant first.  Deal with it.