Barkevious Mingo was a rookie the last time Ray Horton was here. He got five sacks early, then just sort of stopped.
I went back to Pro Football Focus's overview of that rookie season to see what they said about it.
In a nutshell, he rated below average in every category. As PFF notes, he was playing linebacker for the first time, and the coverage portion of that was fairly predictable.
What surprised me was that they said that he was effective in setting the edge (and was as a DE in college) and vs the run when he played with discipline. PFF felt that most of his errors were mental, and therefore correctable.
Rather than engage the blocker to the outside, he attacked inside. In coverage, he vacated his zone too early. They summed it up as aggressiveness and lack of awareness.
As a passrusher, he only graded positive in 5 of 15 games. PFF's final opinion of his rookie season was that he showed tremendous potential not only as a passrusher, but as an all-around outside linebacker.
So what tf happened since then? Well, I do know that Mike Pettine didn't use Mingo the same way. He wasn't on the field as often, and when he was he, like Paul Kruger, covered a lot.
This would alarm me, since as a defensive coordinator in Buffalo, Mike lobbied for Mingo in the draft. But then he had Kruger and the other outside linebackers in coverage a lot too. My theory here is that Mike was different than most 3-4 guys, and used his outside linebackers only slightly more often than inside linebackers and safeties as blitzers. Also, he didn't like to send a fifth passrusher except in obvious pass situations, which of course didn't happen much.
If Ray Horton had stayed, Mingo might have showed more improvement, and as it was, Mike Pettine the chessmaster probably had him overthinking.
It's hard to predict how Mingo will do this season under Ray Horton, and in a simpler, more aggressive defense. We can hope.
Nate Orchard was a steal. He really came on strong at the end of his rookie season, and his needle is definitely pointing up. At this point, he is ahead of Mingo, and a better bet to make a big jump heading into his second season. Orchard made the move to outside linebacker smoothly, and after some early hiccups, played pretty well vs the run and in coverage as well.
Analytics notes the timeline here: Mingo started out hot, then cooled off. Orchard made steady progress (with some flashes), and emerged at the end of his first season.
Nate Orchard doesn't have Von Miller's speed, but could be like DeMarcus Ware in 2016.
Paul Kruger wasn't shy about his frustration with how he was used by Mike Pettine in 2015. He had twelve sacks in 2014. He hasn't gone over the hill, and under Horton might do that again.
Part of the problem was also the rest of the defense. Joe Haden was ineffective even before he went on IR. Gipson went down (again). Poyer was starting at cornerback, and most of the cornerbacks were tiny, and overmatched by taller receivers. Offenses ran a lot, and when they passed, got rid of the ball sooner (to their mismatched tall receivers). There were also numerous breakdowns in coverage, and more zone coverage...often involving Kruger himself.
Also, Ray Horton likes 3-4 personnel, but really runs a 4-3 under. Two interior linemen line up over the weak side b gap (lg/lt) and strong side a gap (c/rg), so there's not really a nose tackle, and both of them attack. A third big guy is on the right tackle's nose, often shaded outside.
Ray moves the "outside" linebackers around (sometimes inside) to add pressure, and blitzes from the inside more.
He doesn't rely exclusively on outside pressure in the way a lot of 3-4s do, but does have the outside linebackers attacking more often than not from various angles.
The resemblance to a 4-3 under with 3-4 personnel is why it's called a hybrid defense. It's foundation is two big guys rushing, and the two big linebackers (and often an inside linebacker) move around to augment this with more speed.
This is much different than Pettine's system, and favors especially Xavier Cooper (explosive penetrator), Des Bryant (inside penetrator) and Danny Shelton (I know it's a surprise, but he's quick enough to split double teams and make a mess).
In general, pressure isn't as dependant on the outside linebackers as some fronts are. For Ray, it's more like four or five guys.
I don't believe Paul Kruger is as good as Nate Orchard can be, but can be a double-digit sack guy again.
Armonty Bryant took Adderol (yawn) but has looked pretty good. He may be faster than everybody except Mingo, and definitely has a shot to accomplish something in 2016.
He was true defensive end as a rookie in 2013, and used mainly as a situational passrusher. Mike Pettine converted him to linebacker in 2014. Originally a seventh round pick, he was raw and unrefined even as a 4-3 defensive end.
He has made steady progress and gained more playing time gradually. Entering his third season at his new position, Ray Horton will see a lot of potential in him.
Scott Solomon is a big lunchpail linebacker who can blitze. He has decent but not great speed, but is strong and uses leverage exceptionally well. He burst into the scene late in 2014 with multiple sacks and splash play, but spent the 2015 season on IR.
His 2014 outburst was too brief to etch in stone as representative of what he actually is, but he's another guy with potential.
Solomon could have the highest "floor" of any of these guys, because he's a true linebacker who can set the edge and stop the run as well as blitze. He has great instincts and a nose for the ball.
Ranked in order of passrushing most to least likely sackmasters, it's probably Orchard, Kruger, Bryant, Mingo, and Solomon.
Horton learned from Dick LeBeau. Although he's not a LeBeau clone, many of his principles can be found in Ray's defense. Leaving the zone blitze aside, Ray Horton will "send" one outside linebacker on most downs to fill out a four-man rush.
When Horton talks about big guys who can run, he means guys like those five I just listed. When he talks about little guys who can hit, he means the secondary, and sometimes coverage linebackers.
Ray is even more aggressive than LeBeau, which makes his defense more vulnerable to blitze-burns, chunk-runs, and big pass plays when the blitze is slowed. This is especially true when he drops a defensive end into a zone and sends one or two guys who would otherwise cover and pursue.
The cornerbacks and safeties have to be fast closers, hard hitters, and sure tacklers. Ray knows that some short and intermediate passes will inevitability be caught, and it's vital to stop these receivers before they can proceed, or to jar the ball loose. They must also close quickly on ballcarriers.
Horton's arrival could mean another season for Old Man Whitner, more zone with Desir on the field, Desir tried at safety, and more opportunities for Gilbert.
While the outside linebackers are the main edge-rushers, literally everybody else will blitze as well. The object is to keep the offense guessing.
As Ray Horton said himself, he uses all sorts of different fronts, but the base defense is a 3-4, and the outside linebackers are featured. They can grow the front to four or five, whether standing up or on the ground.
But three and four wide receiver sets are far more common today, rendering any base defense uncommon.
The Denver Broncos had a great luxury in Von Miller, who remained on the field throughout, because he's about as good in coverage as he is mugging quarterbacks. This allowed them to keep Ware in as well, even though the Patriots knew full well that he would be coming after Brady.
Even if Horton can find a scary pass rush from among these players, he doesn't have a player like Miller. The closest thing he has to Miller is (please stifle yourself) Barkevious Mingo if he can re-establish himself as a passrusher.
Barring that, he'll need to pull one or two linebackers or linemen off the field on most downs in favor of coverage.
Ray is fortunate here to have Chris Kirksey, who covers well, this time around, and maybe Craig Roberts, who has improved a lot in that area. Dansby, if he remains, can still do that as well, but at his age will have to come off the field to rest anyway. Danny Shelton is a tub, and anybody who thought he'd ever be on the field for over 60% of the snaps was delusional.
Other than Mingo, if any two outside linebackers remain on the field vs 3 or 4-wr sets, they'll be undisguised outside passrushers. (Ok well there must be some curveballs, so they'll drop occasionally, but unlike Mike, Ray doesn't get that cute that often).
This season, I saw what looked like a four man rush in nickels turn out to be three guys too often, as Boris Spaske seemed to think he could befuddle the quarterback over and over again with the old Kruger/Orchard in coverage trick. Five offensive linemen on three passrushers.
Man, it's smart not to always be predictable, but there is such a thing as overdoing it. Ray won't overdo it, and whoever is playing outside linebacker will blitze more consistently and often. This will help.
The passrusher situation for the Browns is a little like the wide receiver situation. Everybody thinks they still need a big-time quarterback smasher, but they might be okay.
The people are here, now, to put Kruger back on the weak side, where he got most of his sacks in 2014. All of them will be in coverage less, and blitzing more. Everybody will know his role and play more, think less.
If I counted right, this is where the Titans got their sacks in 2015: OLB: 14 DL: 13.5 ILB: 9 S: 2.5. A defensive end and an outside linebacker had seven sacks each.
To be clear: I did not just guarantee fifty sacks. I didn't even make a prediction. I said "should" and "might" a lot, and "will" only a little. I didn't nominate Barkevious Mingo for the Pro Bowl, or Ray Horton for the Hall of Fame.
It's just that the Browns should get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks next season, regardless of what they do in the draft.
Put down the shovel.
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