Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Cleveland Browns Silly Season Starts Early

In one article by Thomas Moore of Dang Pound Daily, the writer suggests that Ray Farmer's problems were the result of his having deferred to Haslam and Pettine.  I was prepared to blow this out of the water, until I read some of Tom's logic.

Ray Farmer never even interviewed Justin Gilbert, and did spent six hours with Derrick Carr.  Certainly, Mike Pettine liked Gilbert a lot, and Jimmy Haslam did say "Let's go get him" in re Johnny Manziel.

Tom is pretty objective overall, which is why he defended Ray by listing a number of smart moves he made through the other rounds and free agency.

The only problems I have with this article are 1: Cornerbacks often take time to develop, and need reps to do it.  Next to quarterback, it's the most difficult position to master in the pros. 2: Derrick Carr has cooled off lately, and Johnny Manziel has already grown into a very good quarterback who could wind up being the steal of his draft. 3: If Ray deferred to his boss and coach on these picks, it wasn't necessarily out of weakness.  4: You have to list the Dwayne Bowe contract: a HUGE mistake.

Rumors based on emanations of penumbrae about Mike Pettine staying while Ray takes the fall abound.  It's mostly parroted speculations by guys like me (except not as smart or humble).  For all I know, this will happen, but it doesn't make as much sense as the opposite.

When Bill Polian speaks, everybody should listen.  Bill repeated again that the Ryan defense (hence Pettine's) is "extremely" complex, and requires veteran players and a (hard to find) field general to make calls and coordinate it.

Now, this is one reason why Ray signed Dansby and Whitner, and then Jim Leonard.  Leonard was old, small, and slow, but he could make the calls.  This is why the defense last season seemed so much better.

But this team was sort of rebuilding, and a bunch of rookies (including Gilbert btw) need to play.

Whitner and Dansby are old veterans, but it doesn't necessarily make them able to decode this enigma defense.  Nor can it be easy for an inexperienced player at any position to understand their role on a particular play.

Polian mentioned that there was "no carry-over" from week to week with this defense.  It runs completely different schemes from opponent to opponent, and the players have to learn that scheme from scratch.  It can work well with a well-seasoned roster that's been together for a few seasons, but is bad for a team with Sheltons, Orchards, all but one surviving cornerback, the third safety, a second year inside linebacker, a rookie DE, etc.

So...this is Ray Farmer's fault?  I don't think so.  I'm not an expert, but Bill Polian (and several Buffalo Bills players) are, and they say they spend more time code-breaking than they do playing.

It took Nate Orchard almost his whole rookie season to make a significant impact.  Even now, I don't know that he won't disappear again vs the Steelers because the whole game-plan will be different.  What worked against the Chiefs couldn't possibly work against any other team, after all, right?

Gilbert?  Well maybe he's just not a rocket scientist.  Maybe he just wants to be a man corner, period.  Maybe he's like me, and resents the fact that he can't just play football like around 60 other starting cornerbacks in the NFL.

Joe Haden got hurt, but even before that he played badly.  Was he just following bad orders?  Maybe the complexity of the defense gave him his concussion!

Sure, there's conflict with the front office!  Ray wants to know why you won't let the young players he got you just play football.  Ray is a former NFL linebacker.  You can't con him!  Some of his draft picks probably complained to him.

And somehow it's Ray Farmer who gets the wrong end of the stick!  The talent is there!  It's just not allowed to learn one consistent scheme, develop chemistry, refine a predominant skill-set, and just PLAY!

If I were Jimmy Haslam I'd KEEP Ray Farmer.  I'm confident that whatever happens, his signings and draft picks will succeed in the NFL, and I'll be saying I told you so. If Haslam fires Ray Farmer, it's political, and will catch up to him.

In This article by our old friend Mike Carrucci, Mike goes more in depth about what Bill said.  Of course, Bill thinks quarterbacks need to be perfect people, so he hates Johnny Manziel, so even he isn't as smart as my humble self.

In This article by Carl Setar, Carl calls Cleveland the ideal landing spot for Chip Kelly.  I think that is mostly insane.

The writer does make a few good points: Manziel is better suited to his college offense than is Sam Bradford.  Carl seems unaware that Kelly tried to adapt to the NFL somewhat when he came here, which is why he hired Pat Shurmer and then traded for Sam Bradford.

Carl calls a Bradford type Kelly's "ideal" quarterback, but that's not true.  Bradford was simply the best quarterback he could get at the time, and accuracy is more important than athleticism.  If Kelly did come to Cleveland, he'd love Johnny Manziel, and would run more of his read-option offense with him than he can with the ponderous Bradford.

Carl does some wishful thinking: Maybe Chip wouldn't want to control personnel.  Maybe he will have learned to treat players more like adults.  Maybe he'll be humbled.

The idea is still, on balance, insane.  Chip Kelly as a personnel guy is what the mob thinks Ray Farmer is.  Even after he screws up, he keeps trying to pound square pegs into round holes.  And if a truly smart guy like Mike Pettine digs in his heels and refuses to change, what makes anybody think Chip Kelly would?

In this "Hey Tony", some of these issues with the defense are addressed by readers, and Tony points out (as I have) that Jim O'Neill is Mike's guy.  You can't blame him for doing what he's told to do.

The fantasy football gurus are being lazy and ignorant again about the Browns vs the Steelers.

After Manziel ran for over a hundred yards in Kansas City, they expect the same in Pittsburgh.  Everything he did up til then, including throwing for 370 yards vs this very team, never happened.  The wind in the KC game isn't even considered.

None of them list Travis Benjamin (over 120 yards vs the Steelers) or Gary Barnidge as options.

And the Baltimore Ravens just beat the Steelers!

Ok yes, the Browns are one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they passed for 370 yards vs the Steelers, stomped the guts out of San Fransisco (which beat the Seahawks two weeks later), lost an almost-competitive game to the Seahawks, and came close to beating the Chiefs at home.

I haven't seen the line yet, but I imagine it will be a double-digit point spread.  I can't argue with that.

Baltimore somehow stifled the Steelers passing attack, but there is no Jimmy Smith on this roster, and I just can't see the Browns doing the same.

Last time, the Browns somehow managed to control Williams (btw a top fantasy pick despite that jeez), but Big Ben just destroyed the homies by air.

On the other side, the Browns couldn't run either, and I don't see that changing much.  They should do a little better, as the run game seems to have improved since they now run to the strong side too, but the Steelers stuff the run as well as anybody.

But Manziel DID trade punches with Ben blow-for-blow, and did it without those all-star stud receivers Ben has.

What if?  What if the Browns just finish off two of those drives this time, and kick a couple field goals?  370 air yards and a measley 75 on the ground could easily mean 20 points.

Probably not enough, of course.  Hard to get a pick here, or a fumble, or a td return.  

But you never know.  Everybody talks about the Steelers having everything on the line, as if it means the Browns should just call in sick.

But Manziel is playing for his future, as are several other players, along with the coaches.

The "Hey Tony" questioner who called this roster "garbage" is a moron.

If Pettine surprises me and lets the "garbage" defense play, the Browns have a shot.

Let Gilbert and Pryor play, too!  If I'm Ray, I want to know why Mike thinks a lilipution cornerback has a better chance of defending one of those stud receivers than a 6' guy that clocks 4.3 (if you let him).  Or why, with all the trouble you have in the red zone, you don't have the 6'5"+ 230 lb. turbocharged guy even active!!!

I don't know.  Maybe Mike just wants to make sure if somebody gets fired it won't be him.  I'll know for sure when I see the game-day depth chart.

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