In previous entries, I already suggested Braxton Miller, should he make it to the second round. I'll skip Spence, because he won't. Reggie Ragland has a chance too, although Scott Solomon, a similar player, is already here.
Generally, there will also be some excellent safeties available atop the second round. Rodney Campbellfield, who excelled in last year's Senior Bowl, is already here and with a year under his belt. Poyer, filling in for Gipson, did a good job at that position. Gipson himself, I need to inform Memorex Morons, isn't angry with this front office, and has lost the leverage to extort his outlandish demands, and may be re-signing after all. Old Man Whitner isn't the same as he once was, but Ray Horton and his scheme could keep him around as a box guy.
So myopic hallucinations aside, safety is not a position of need for this team.
Still, one Senior Bowl participant leaps out here: OLB Deion Jones, who is 6'1", 219 lbs. Mayock and others weren't sure what position he would play in the NFL-safety is one possibility. Others think he has the frame to gain weight, and should remain where he is (in a 4-3, of course).
He could go in the second round, which would be too bad, since I doubt that the Browns would consider him there. But if he makes it to the third round, or conceivably even the fourth, he could really help.
Jones has no place in Ray Horton's base scheme, except possibly as a box safety. But as I've mentioned countless times before, in today's NFL, base defenses are on the field around 30% of the time. For all intents and purposes, nickel defenses might as well be called "base" defenses instead.
Here, Jones is a perfect nickel linebacker. The nickel linebacker blitzes, takes on tight ends and running backs in coverage, sometimes mirrors guys like Cam Newton, and of course runs around to tackle sneaky running backs.
Jones has great speed and is fluid in coverage, which is why some teams would make him a box safety. But he also has great instincts and anticipation, and is surprisingly adept at shedding blocks.
Here, he wouldn't be asked to gain a lot of weight. He should just naturally build up to 225 or 230 over time, but Ray Horton would prioritize speed with him.
Deion Jones is a special teams demon (two return tackles in Senior Bowl), so in the third round or lower, two assistant coaches may be lobbying for him.
Most importantly, speed and instincts are the top two things you want on the field, and that's Jones. That's a third round pick who would be on the field more often than not, right away.
OLB Kyler Fackrell is 6'4", 244 lbs. He was Pro Football Focus's top rated outside linebacker (first passrusher, first vs run, sixth in coverage). He is 25 years old, which doesn't help his draft stock.
CBS Sports describes him as lanky, and question his recognition and instincts. Per Brugler, he misreads things, and will overpursue or hesitate.
That's okay, though. He's projected in the third or fourth round.
Instincts can't be taught, but recognition can be enhanced through taught keys. He won't still weigh 244 lbs for long, and might even show up at his first training camp at 250.
Fackrell isn't a good 4-3 or inside linebacker prospect, and isn't ready for the NFL now. He piled up lots of quarterback hurries and tackles for losses (just four sacks).
He is a guy you grab later on and put in your incubator for year two. Conceivably, he could be a situational player as a rookie. He has great upside...if he lasts to the fourth round.
The Browns, here on planet Earth, don't have a big need at linebacker (passrusher maybe--linebacker no). Fackrell would be a "restocking the shelf" pick.
ILB Tyler Matakevich (6', 233) is a run-and-hit guy. He's average as an athlete, but reads and reacts extremely fast and with decisive authority. He had five interceptions (led all college linebackers), fourteen tackles for losses, and 4.5 sacks. He excells in every phase of the game, including the blitze. He plays with his hair on fire, and is very physical.
He's unlikely to impress anybody at the combine, but he could easily be a day one starter. He is projected to go in the third or fourth round...amazing.
His physical dimensions are hurting him. 6' seems short, and there's not a lot of room for him to get bigger.
Many people think the analytics people will filter him out, but that's because people have a misguided view of analytics.
True in-depth analysis includes results vs various levels of competition, consistency, and leverage. It also considers history: There are a TON of "short" linebackers who have excelled in the NFL. It's the traditionalists who cling to long since discredited metrics, and analytics which ignore them.
From Fansided, I found wide receiver Geronimo Allison. I couldn't even find this guy listed on the CBS Big Board. He's a 6'4" 200 lb. beanpole who played with weak quarterbacks.
As I've repeatedly demonstrated here, the "need" for wide receivers on this roster is non-existent, but this guy might not even be drafted. Hopefully, his agent is a Memorex Moron too, and will think his guy has a better chance here.
Thanks to Fansided, I found some more: Bronson Kaufusi (BYU). Bronson is 6'7", 270-plus and played defensive end. His father was his defensive line coach. The writer compared him to Ziggy Ansah, which really got my attention.
Naturally in a Horton defense, Bronson would be an outside linebacker, and probably play lighter than he did at DE. At 6'7", however, he probably can't/shouldn't lose too much weight.
He has dropped into coverage enough to show that he can do it in short zones, but (per CBS) he doesn't have the hips to stick with people. CBS also says he's not very flexible in general, but seemed to think that was a minor issue as a passrusher and run stopper.
They said he tends to play too high sometimes, but can stack and shed quite well.
Last season he had eleven sacks, three quarterback hits, two forced fumbles, and an interception, plus 64 tackles as a defensive END.
This guy is projected to go in the third or fourth round, partly because he's another older guy (did a missionary stint overseas).
He makes full use of his length and reach to keep blockers off him and knock them off balance, and actually taught his predecessor, Ziggy Ansah himself, footwork and technique.
In reality Kaufusi is bigger (actually listed at 280), and Ansah maybe faster and probably more flexible, but the comparison could be valid since both are big monsters who can run.
Kaufusi is projected in the third or fourth round. Those extra fourth round picks Ray Farmer piled up keep looking better. Maurizio could contribute immediately.
Another projected fourth round pick is OT Le'Raven Clark. He started at left tackle for Texas Tech for two seasons. That's an odd offense which makes it hard for scouts to get a bead on him.
He lined up in a two point stance, and retreated at the snap. He's 6'6", 312 lbs and has quick feet. Brugler cites several mechanical flaws, including a tendency to allow defenders into his body rather than controlling them with his extended hands. He played guard in his first season, and might play it again in the NFL, but actually has the physical tools to be a left tackle.
This is a dice-roll high risk/reward practice squad project guy who fits a zone-blocking scheme. He might not pan out, but it's rare to dig up a left tackle this low in any draft, and Clark might be that guy.
The Browns need a left tackle like they need a hole in the head, but Joe Thomas can't last forever.
If the scheme here is indeed mainly zone, come 2017 or 2018, Clark could provide depth at other positions, or conceivably start.
It takes awhile to develop raw offensive linemen. About as long as some people think it takes to develop wide receivers (note: they are wrong).
It's the fourth round. Restock the shelves.
Note that all the defensive players listed can get after the quarterback. Ray Horton sends players inside and outside to get pressure, and everybody gets their chances.
Of course, he hasn't had a dominating guy like Von Miller to work with. Every team is always fishing for that guy, and doesn't waste them doing much else when they get them. Maybe he'll get lucky. Probably not.
Nevertheless, Horton teams tend to rank in or near the top third in sacks and pressures, so a bunch of "pretty good" passrushers can work as well.
Sunday, January 31, 2016
Johnny Fishbowl, Browns Draft Stuff, Politics
The latest Johnny Fishbowl incident was probably the last straw.
Not because he necessarily did anything wrong, since if the woman involved was the same one in the driving incident, she is nuts.
Nor have I heard any allegations of abuse. As one of the few literate people in Cleveland, I need to help everybody out by pointing out what words were and were not used by police.
Tom Reed leaped on this incident. He says the Browns need to dump him ASAP. I can't disagree any more, although for me it's a political thing. It's possible, if not likely, that Johnny is guilty of having another good time, and bad taste in women (ex-girlfreind). Nothing more.
But Reed gets pretty silly in calling Manziel a "marginal starter", and commending Granny Pettine's backbone for demoting him. If he's an alcoholic in need of rehab, so are over a million Browns fans. What do you do on Friday and Saturday nights?
This is why Jim Brown has defended him. This media circus wasn't possible in Brown's day, and even if it had been, most fans would have shrugged it off. Politically correct do-gooders have indoctrinated us.
Alas, even Jim and I have to throw in the towel now. We're badly outnumbered, and there's too much flak headed Haslam's way. Johnny might possibly fetch a conditional sixth round pick at best now. More likely nothing.
Moving on, I admit that I'm kind of glad that Braxton Miller didn't light it up in the Senior Bowl. He was even tagged with one drop. Chances of him dropping to 34 overall are slightly better.
Noah Spence took himself out of the Browns second round wheelhouse with a sack and constant pressure.
A DE named Shawn Oakman (a chiseled 6'7", 26
9 lbs) had disappointed in practice all week, but exploded in the game with two sacks. Between the bad practices (he was "handled" by offensive linemen in drills) and the game itself, I don't know what to make of the guy, except to say he probably doesn't go on day one.
The Browns don't need a defensive end, but will have to look at him.
Mike Mayock and others talked up three cornerbacks, two of which are tall guys. That has to be a consideration for the Browns in the second round and beyond.
South quarterback Dak Prescott got my attention with a two minute touchdown drive to end the second quarter. He won't be drafted til later. He has limited experience and is a dual threat guy. CBS says he's improved a lot as a passer, then tore him apart.
He's 6'2", 228, and before taking over as the starter was mixed in at quarterback and ran a lot. He's compared to Tim Tebow, but he has a quicker delivery and is faster.
I have no idea if this means anything at all.
There was a lot of coverage of Carson Wentz's game, and it was generally positive. He was sacked twice and stripped once, but he moved his team. The consensus seemed to be that given his overmatched offensive line, he played pretty well.
Then I read a Bleacher Report review that was nearly opposite. They called Wentz "disappointing", and said that he clearly needed more time to be comfortable under center.
The writer might not even realize that Wentz is the only quarterback in the top three who took the majority of his college snaps from under center.
The Bleacher Report article said that whoever drafted Wentz would need a long term plan, because he would need a lot of work.
That much could be true...But less so than for spread quarterback Paxton Lynch, and maybe even Jared Goff (who has the football smarts but ran a spread himself).
The only top quarterback who looks like he could be a day one starter is Connor Cook (projected first or second round). I haven't paid too much attention to him. He sounds like AJ McCarron did before the last draft. Definitely a good quarterback, but not special.
I'm still relying on Mike Mayock first. Wentz or Goff, period. You need special.
Not because he necessarily did anything wrong, since if the woman involved was the same one in the driving incident, she is nuts.
Nor have I heard any allegations of abuse. As one of the few literate people in Cleveland, I need to help everybody out by pointing out what words were and were not used by police.
Tom Reed leaped on this incident. He says the Browns need to dump him ASAP. I can't disagree any more, although for me it's a political thing. It's possible, if not likely, that Johnny is guilty of having another good time, and bad taste in women (ex-girlfreind). Nothing more.
But Reed gets pretty silly in calling Manziel a "marginal starter", and commending Granny Pettine's backbone for demoting him. If he's an alcoholic in need of rehab, so are over a million Browns fans. What do you do on Friday and Saturday nights?
This is why Jim Brown has defended him. This media circus wasn't possible in Brown's day, and even if it had been, most fans would have shrugged it off. Politically correct do-gooders have indoctrinated us.
Alas, even Jim and I have to throw in the towel now. We're badly outnumbered, and there's too much flak headed Haslam's way. Johnny might possibly fetch a conditional sixth round pick at best now. More likely nothing.
Moving on, I admit that I'm kind of glad that Braxton Miller didn't light it up in the Senior Bowl. He was even tagged with one drop. Chances of him dropping to 34 overall are slightly better.
Noah Spence took himself out of the Browns second round wheelhouse with a sack and constant pressure.
A DE named Shawn Oakman (a chiseled 6'7", 26
9 lbs) had disappointed in practice all week, but exploded in the game with two sacks. Between the bad practices (he was "handled" by offensive linemen in drills) and the game itself, I don't know what to make of the guy, except to say he probably doesn't go on day one.
The Browns don't need a defensive end, but will have to look at him.
Mike Mayock and others talked up three cornerbacks, two of which are tall guys. That has to be a consideration for the Browns in the second round and beyond.
South quarterback Dak Prescott got my attention with a two minute touchdown drive to end the second quarter. He won't be drafted til later. He has limited experience and is a dual threat guy. CBS says he's improved a lot as a passer, then tore him apart.
He's 6'2", 228, and before taking over as the starter was mixed in at quarterback and ran a lot. He's compared to Tim Tebow, but he has a quicker delivery and is faster.
I have no idea if this means anything at all.
There was a lot of coverage of Carson Wentz's game, and it was generally positive. He was sacked twice and stripped once, but he moved his team. The consensus seemed to be that given his overmatched offensive line, he played pretty well.
Then I read a Bleacher Report review that was nearly opposite. They called Wentz "disappointing", and said that he clearly needed more time to be comfortable under center.
The writer might not even realize that Wentz is the only quarterback in the top three who took the majority of his college snaps from under center.
The Bleacher Report article said that whoever drafted Wentz would need a long term plan, because he would need a lot of work.
That much could be true...But less so than for spread quarterback Paxton Lynch, and maybe even Jared Goff (who has the football smarts but ran a spread himself).
The only top quarterback who looks like he could be a day one starter is Connor Cook (projected first or second round). I haven't paid too much attention to him. He sounds like AJ McCarron did before the last draft. Definitely a good quarterback, but not special.
I'm still relying on Mike Mayock first. Wentz or Goff, period. You need special.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
More Wide Misperceiver Corrections
Tom Reed is pretty good, usually, but his most recent article on the Browns needs, and ways to address them, was shallow.
He was roundly bashed by some commentors for bringing up a potential trade for A J McCarron, but this gets smarter people thinking. A J had some warts on his college scouting reports, but performed well in his rookie season in relief of Andy Dalton. Indeed, some Bengals fans think he should remain the starter.
This is a case of Hue knows best. The Bengals are unlikely to consider any reasonable trade, as they don't expect to draft high for a long time, quarterbacks don't grow on trees, and McCarron could, indeed, displace Dalton as he continues to improve.
Other comments called Goff Alex Smith, said all these quarterbacks are third rounders, that the Browns shouldn't draft any of them, and that any quarterback drafted should start from day one.
I try to remember a time when I was that stupid. Maybe I was. At any rate, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Carr.
The Goff/Smith comparison doesn't rate a response. Dumb people think being controversial makes people think you're smart (third rounders...yeah).
No Head Coach wants to start a quarterback until he is ready. Kosar came from Miami and a pro style system. Even then, he didn't play until Danielson got hurt. All of these quarterbacks played for small schools, and most in spread offenses.
If Mohammud Ali had fought for the Heavyweight belt right out of the Olympics, he would have been destroyed, and perhaps never heard from again. Duh.
McCown, and even Austin Davis, played well here, and starting a raw quarterback immediately is completely unnecessary.
And Tom was right about the need for one.
He was wrong about the need for another wide receiver. He was right to point out the risk with Josh Gordon, but completely ignored not only Terrelle Pryor, but Brian Hartline too.
This involves analysis (or "analytics" if you insist): The odds of Josh Gordon staying out of trouble, based on information to date, and playing well are around 75%. The odds of Brian Hartline remaining healthy and playing well are about the same. The odds if the Invisible Man (Pryor) being retained, improving, and making a significant contribution as a receiver by midseason are 50% at worst.
The odds of both Pryor and Gordon failing in 2016 are below 30%. Under those circumstances, you don't burn a second round pick on a wide receiver not named Miller.
Reed mentioned Marvin Jones, and I'd buy that for a dollar. He's really good, but will be very expensive, especially considering that the Browns don't need him. Tom sort of dismissed Mohammud Sanu, since Hue Jackson used him mostly out of the slot.
Here we go again: Sanu was a productive outside receiver until the faster, more dangerous Jones displaced him. Hue tweaked things to get the reliable Sanu on the field at the same time. Sanu is too big for nickel backs. Brian Hartline has been used the same way.
Unlike Brown, Sanu could be a free agent bargain, is effective outside, and could be a target for the Browns.
Tom was right about offensive linemen, since the Browns could lose a couple, and Erving isn't a sure thing. But he was indiscriminant about who the Browns should sign or draft.
Zone and man offensive linemen are different. Tom is probably among those who think Square Peg Jackson will run a man scheme because he has in the past, but I think there will be more zone. That's based not only in common sense, but also on the offensive assistants he hired.
Either way, the Browns will need to settle on a scheme, best adapted to the probable current roster, before they target offensive linemen in free agency or the draft.
The new Browns staff will also pay more attention to age than Tom does, specifically with offensive linemen. They're trying to build a team here, and you don't do that with 33 year old newcomers. Chemistry and continuity is more important, and takes longer to establish, in the offensive line than at any other position.
The Browns could draft a running back, but have no need to. Tom himself spoke highly of Isaiah Crowell and how he was underused, and of Duke Johnson, right before calling running back a position of need.
More on that: You can decide to "stick with the run" all you want, but every second and eight calls for a pass. And once you're down by ten or thirteen points with time running down, you have to throw the ball more.
Tom has this annoying habit of ignoring all these situational factors and thinking that the coaches decided not to run the ball.
Another thing is this: It's true that many running backs rack up better stats when they run twenty or more times. This is substantially because when the run is succeeding, teams run more. When it isn't, they run less.
More Analytics: Conclusions drawn from a "surface scan" of crude, general statistics are almost invariably wrong. The Browns running backs are fine.
In my last entry, I overlooked another player that the Browns might like from the Senior Bowl. OLB Reggie Ragland. He is more like Scott Solomon than anybody else, though.
He may or may not flesh out as a great passrusher. He played inside in college, but once again, Solomon could play inside for Ray Horton here.
I wouldn't complain if he was the best available in the second round and they drafted Ragland. He could play two downs in the NFL immediately, and Mike Mayock thinks he's ultimately a three down player.
Solomon and Ragland are big guys who can run, and can line up anywhere. These are guys who can take on and defeat blocks, have a nose for the ball, and can stop the run, often moving forward and with authority.
Ragland does have unknowns about him too: He played inside and rarely blitzed in college. That's why the Senior Bowl coaches put him outside.
I finally saw a Wentz highlight film. On most of his big (non-running) plays, his receivers weren't really even open. They had guys glued to them. None of them were very big, either. One of his favorite targets was a running back or really short tight end.
At any rate, his accuracy was amazing. He put the ball where only his receiver had a chance at it.
His was clearly not a timing offense, but reports from Mobile say he has no problems with anticipation.
One scout knocked him for overthrowing vertical routes in the end zone, but another scout said that was from day one, and he was throwing to strange receivers. See, the second scout was more analytical, ok?
He was roundly bashed by some commentors for bringing up a potential trade for A J McCarron, but this gets smarter people thinking. A J had some warts on his college scouting reports, but performed well in his rookie season in relief of Andy Dalton. Indeed, some Bengals fans think he should remain the starter.
This is a case of Hue knows best. The Bengals are unlikely to consider any reasonable trade, as they don't expect to draft high for a long time, quarterbacks don't grow on trees, and McCarron could, indeed, displace Dalton as he continues to improve.
Other comments called Goff Alex Smith, said all these quarterbacks are third rounders, that the Browns shouldn't draft any of them, and that any quarterback drafted should start from day one.
I try to remember a time when I was that stupid. Maybe I was. At any rate, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Carr.
The Goff/Smith comparison doesn't rate a response. Dumb people think being controversial makes people think you're smart (third rounders...yeah).
No Head Coach wants to start a quarterback until he is ready. Kosar came from Miami and a pro style system. Even then, he didn't play until Danielson got hurt. All of these quarterbacks played for small schools, and most in spread offenses.
If Mohammud Ali had fought for the Heavyweight belt right out of the Olympics, he would have been destroyed, and perhaps never heard from again. Duh.
McCown, and even Austin Davis, played well here, and starting a raw quarterback immediately is completely unnecessary.
And Tom was right about the need for one.
He was wrong about the need for another wide receiver. He was right to point out the risk with Josh Gordon, but completely ignored not only Terrelle Pryor, but Brian Hartline too.
This involves analysis (or "analytics" if you insist): The odds of Josh Gordon staying out of trouble, based on information to date, and playing well are around 75%. The odds of Brian Hartline remaining healthy and playing well are about the same. The odds if the Invisible Man (Pryor) being retained, improving, and making a significant contribution as a receiver by midseason are 50% at worst.
The odds of both Pryor and Gordon failing in 2016 are below 30%. Under those circumstances, you don't burn a second round pick on a wide receiver not named Miller.
Reed mentioned Marvin Jones, and I'd buy that for a dollar. He's really good, but will be very expensive, especially considering that the Browns don't need him. Tom sort of dismissed Mohammud Sanu, since Hue Jackson used him mostly out of the slot.
Here we go again: Sanu was a productive outside receiver until the faster, more dangerous Jones displaced him. Hue tweaked things to get the reliable Sanu on the field at the same time. Sanu is too big for nickel backs. Brian Hartline has been used the same way.
Unlike Brown, Sanu could be a free agent bargain, is effective outside, and could be a target for the Browns.
Tom was right about offensive linemen, since the Browns could lose a couple, and Erving isn't a sure thing. But he was indiscriminant about who the Browns should sign or draft.
Zone and man offensive linemen are different. Tom is probably among those who think Square Peg Jackson will run a man scheme because he has in the past, but I think there will be more zone. That's based not only in common sense, but also on the offensive assistants he hired.
Either way, the Browns will need to settle on a scheme, best adapted to the probable current roster, before they target offensive linemen in free agency or the draft.
The new Browns staff will also pay more attention to age than Tom does, specifically with offensive linemen. They're trying to build a team here, and you don't do that with 33 year old newcomers. Chemistry and continuity is more important, and takes longer to establish, in the offensive line than at any other position.
The Browns could draft a running back, but have no need to. Tom himself spoke highly of Isaiah Crowell and how he was underused, and of Duke Johnson, right before calling running back a position of need.
More on that: You can decide to "stick with the run" all you want, but every second and eight calls for a pass. And once you're down by ten or thirteen points with time running down, you have to throw the ball more.
Tom has this annoying habit of ignoring all these situational factors and thinking that the coaches decided not to run the ball.
Another thing is this: It's true that many running backs rack up better stats when they run twenty or more times. This is substantially because when the run is succeeding, teams run more. When it isn't, they run less.
More Analytics: Conclusions drawn from a "surface scan" of crude, general statistics are almost invariably wrong. The Browns running backs are fine.
In my last entry, I overlooked another player that the Browns might like from the Senior Bowl. OLB Reggie Ragland. He is more like Scott Solomon than anybody else, though.
He may or may not flesh out as a great passrusher. He played inside in college, but once again, Solomon could play inside for Ray Horton here.
I wouldn't complain if he was the best available in the second round and they drafted Ragland. He could play two downs in the NFL immediately, and Mike Mayock thinks he's ultimately a three down player.
Solomon and Ragland are big guys who can run, and can line up anywhere. These are guys who can take on and defeat blocks, have a nose for the ball, and can stop the run, often moving forward and with authority.
Ragland does have unknowns about him too: He played inside and rarely blitzed in college. That's why the Senior Bowl coaches put him outside.
I finally saw a Wentz highlight film. On most of his big (non-running) plays, his receivers weren't really even open. They had guys glued to them. None of them were very big, either. One of his favorite targets was a running back or really short tight end.
At any rate, his accuracy was amazing. He put the ball where only his receiver had a chance at it.
His was clearly not a timing offense, but reports from Mobile say he has no problems with anticipation.
One scout knocked him for overthrowing vertical routes in the end zone, but another scout said that was from day one, and he was throwing to strange receivers. See, the second scout was more analytical, ok?
Friday, January 29, 2016
Sashi Brown is in Charge of the Final Budget
In this article by Mary Kay Cabot, Mary Kay talks about how some NFL officials are angry about the Browns' new management structure.
I found this rather irksome. "They should be ashamed of themseves", one guy said.
Ashamed? Of all the words this clown could have used, he used that one? Ashamed of what?
This would make sense if they had said that this was stupid, or wouldn't work. Some of them have said that, and that's a reasoned opinion I respect.
That argument, as you know, says that a non-football person (Sashi Brown) shouldn't have final control over the roster. He lacks the expertise. He'll screw up.
The clown who said that the Browns should be ashamed of themselves lit himself up in neon lights for me, along with many others who think like him.
The axe this guy is grinding is about seniority. DePodesta didn't pay his dues. He should have started at the bottom, and worked his way up. Sashi Brown should have gone into scouting, and done that for several years.
You've heard this before. I've been here longer, so I deserve more. The antithesis of meritocracy. Meritocracy says promote the best. Seniority says promote the oldest, even if they suck.
As for whether or not this arrangement will work, I fail to see why it won't.
As DePodesta famously says, "If this isn't how you'd always done it, would you do it this way?" That's not in the least profound. It's a simple question, and one which DePodesta no doubt asked Jimmy Haslam long before his hire.
As I've explained repeatedly, the idea is to put the CAP EXPERT and chief negotiator in charge of the final budget.
This is why there is a VP of personnel, and a head coach with a voice, involved. Sashi Brown has no intention of telling them who to draft or sign. This is most likely in writing as part of their contracts.
Sashi has said he'll start watching more film now. Soon, this will be twisted into his intention to take over the scouting process. It's really a way of his getting on the same page as his scouting department, and knowing what they're talking about.
As Head Coach of the Oakland Raiders, Hue Jackson traded mid-season for Carson Palmer. He paid too much, and gave up too much. Palmer had been out of football, and didn't accomplish much that season.
I know that Hue would tell you today, this was a mistake. Today, he no doubt wishes he'd had a Sashi Brown.
Will Brown choose between Goff and Wentz, should that choice show up? No. Each costs the same. For that matter, I doubt that Sashi Brown will effect the draft at all, since the costs are all fixed.
Free agency is different, of course. The coaches might well want to retain Alex Mack no matter what. With the recent cap increases, he can pay more now. Maybe eleven million/year. But some idiot is libel to offer thirteen million. The "football guys" might do that. Sashi won't.
For this reason, this might indeed be the superior system, provided the guy in Sashi Brown's position isn't power hungry or a know-it-all.
Ashamed of themselves. Really.
I was encouraged to hear what Alex Mack said about the Browns' new direction. It doesn't mean he won't still squeeze every nickel til the buffalo craps, but could mean that he's not determined to leave.
All the free agents believe in Hue Jackson, and are impressed by the veteran coaching staff he's assembled.
Local pundits continue to rehash the long history of failure here, as if it has anything whatsoever to do with Hue Jackson and company, but the players only see the here and now. If the same regime had stayed in place, they'd all want out. With the new regime, they all want to stay (if the money is right).
Free Agents around the NFL avoided the Browns last season, but this season will check Sashi out. They want to play for Hue Jackson or Ray Horton.
Several Bengals players come to mind, including Malualuga, Marvin Brown, and Jones.
The Steelers lack cap space again. Kelvin Beachum, on his rookie contract, was their starting left tackle, then got injured. His replacement is better, and the Browns could bid low for him. Brandon Boykin and Sean Spence are a couple other guys Sashi could raid.
Boykin, especially, is probably feeling vengeful. The Steelers traded for him, then wouldn't play him, even as their secondary got shredded last season. (Could be a seniority thing!)
Sashi won't overpay. He'll sign young guys long and old guys short. He's not a personnel guy. He's an efficient money guy.
Hue Jackson gets it, even if the old guard doesn't.
Ernie Accorsi was a football guy who had paid his dues. He traded two first round picks, a third round pick and a fifth round pick for Eli Manning (instead of Philip Rivers).
All the talk about two Superbowl wins aside, Philip Rivers may in fact be the better of the two quarterbacks. It wasn't only the draft picks, but the money that made this a dumb trade.
He gave all that up to get his favorite of two virtually interchangeable quarterbacks. The two Superbowl wins Eli got have convinced everybody that Accorsi was a genius, but in reality, Rivers on the same team might well have done the same thing. If they'd saved that money and those draft picks, they might have gone to three or four Superbowls!
Accorsi was, on balance, a great GM. But he sure could have used Sashi Brown that day!
I found this rather irksome. "They should be ashamed of themseves", one guy said.
Ashamed? Of all the words this clown could have used, he used that one? Ashamed of what?
This would make sense if they had said that this was stupid, or wouldn't work. Some of them have said that, and that's a reasoned opinion I respect.
That argument, as you know, says that a non-football person (Sashi Brown) shouldn't have final control over the roster. He lacks the expertise. He'll screw up.
The clown who said that the Browns should be ashamed of themselves lit himself up in neon lights for me, along with many others who think like him.
The axe this guy is grinding is about seniority. DePodesta didn't pay his dues. He should have started at the bottom, and worked his way up. Sashi Brown should have gone into scouting, and done that for several years.
You've heard this before. I've been here longer, so I deserve more. The antithesis of meritocracy. Meritocracy says promote the best. Seniority says promote the oldest, even if they suck.
As for whether or not this arrangement will work, I fail to see why it won't.
As DePodesta famously says, "If this isn't how you'd always done it, would you do it this way?" That's not in the least profound. It's a simple question, and one which DePodesta no doubt asked Jimmy Haslam long before his hire.
As I've explained repeatedly, the idea is to put the CAP EXPERT and chief negotiator in charge of the final budget.
This is why there is a VP of personnel, and a head coach with a voice, involved. Sashi Brown has no intention of telling them who to draft or sign. This is most likely in writing as part of their contracts.
Sashi has said he'll start watching more film now. Soon, this will be twisted into his intention to take over the scouting process. It's really a way of his getting on the same page as his scouting department, and knowing what they're talking about.
As Head Coach of the Oakland Raiders, Hue Jackson traded mid-season for Carson Palmer. He paid too much, and gave up too much. Palmer had been out of football, and didn't accomplish much that season.
I know that Hue would tell you today, this was a mistake. Today, he no doubt wishes he'd had a Sashi Brown.
Will Brown choose between Goff and Wentz, should that choice show up? No. Each costs the same. For that matter, I doubt that Sashi Brown will effect the draft at all, since the costs are all fixed.
Free agency is different, of course. The coaches might well want to retain Alex Mack no matter what. With the recent cap increases, he can pay more now. Maybe eleven million/year. But some idiot is libel to offer thirteen million. The "football guys" might do that. Sashi won't.
For this reason, this might indeed be the superior system, provided the guy in Sashi Brown's position isn't power hungry or a know-it-all.
Ashamed of themselves. Really.
I was encouraged to hear what Alex Mack said about the Browns' new direction. It doesn't mean he won't still squeeze every nickel til the buffalo craps, but could mean that he's not determined to leave.
All the free agents believe in Hue Jackson, and are impressed by the veteran coaching staff he's assembled.
Local pundits continue to rehash the long history of failure here, as if it has anything whatsoever to do with Hue Jackson and company, but the players only see the here and now. If the same regime had stayed in place, they'd all want out. With the new regime, they all want to stay (if the money is right).
Free Agents around the NFL avoided the Browns last season, but this season will check Sashi out. They want to play for Hue Jackson or Ray Horton.
Several Bengals players come to mind, including Malualuga, Marvin Brown, and Jones.
The Steelers lack cap space again. Kelvin Beachum, on his rookie contract, was their starting left tackle, then got injured. His replacement is better, and the Browns could bid low for him. Brandon Boykin and Sean Spence are a couple other guys Sashi could raid.
Boykin, especially, is probably feeling vengeful. The Steelers traded for him, then wouldn't play him, even as their secondary got shredded last season. (Could be a seniority thing!)
Sashi won't overpay. He'll sign young guys long and old guys short. He's not a personnel guy. He's an efficient money guy.
Hue Jackson gets it, even if the old guard doesn't.
Ernie Accorsi was a football guy who had paid his dues. He traded two first round picks, a third round pick and a fifth round pick for Eli Manning (instead of Philip Rivers).
All the talk about two Superbowl wins aside, Philip Rivers may in fact be the better of the two quarterbacks. It wasn't only the draft picks, but the money that made this a dumb trade.
He gave all that up to get his favorite of two virtually interchangeable quarterbacks. The two Superbowl wins Eli got have convinced everybody that Accorsi was a genius, but in reality, Rivers on the same team might well have done the same thing. If they'd saved that money and those draft picks, they might have gone to three or four Superbowls!
Accorsi was, on balance, a great GM. But he sure could have used Sashi Brown that day!
Browns and Senior Bowl Personnel Stuff
As most of us now know, it's about 90% certain that the Browns will draft a quarterback first. Recent comments by the staff about Manziel seem to open the door a crack, but that's exactly what I would do, even if I had already decided to replace him.
I'm not alone in thinking that, but might be alone about his on the field performance. Other "analysts" seem to be governed by emotion as they just have to close sentences about his off the field issues with "...hasn't done much on the field, either".
Compare his statistics to Josh McCown's. Remember he was basically a rookie, at the lowest end of a steep growth curve. Be fair: He looked terrific, in context.
The current PR from Haslam and the new front office will get quarterback-hungry teams to actually dig up Manziel's game tape and study them. Unlike local pundits, they will see a lot more good stuff than bad stuff, and the Browns know it.
And I can't disallow the possibility that just conceivably Manziel could be retained! Not that they wouldn't draft a quarterback first anyway.
As it is, Manziel has little value, and yet the talent to embarrass the new front office, should they dump him. His retention, in and of itself, is a tacit endorsement which would increase his trade value by one round.
Everything he did on the field in pre-season would be predictably great, and now we're talking some real value!
Go ahead and draft Goff or Wentz. Now, if Johnny has behaved, he can start, and kick butt, while the new kid incubates.
Those of you who think Johnny's partying in the off-season with other professional athletes is the same as skipping a concussion treatment to party in Vegas while his team plays it's last game are way overboard.
The aforementioned, and his unavailability to Mike Pettine, are legitimate concerns, but there is more to that story too:
If I were Johnny Manziel and was called on the carpet for partying on my bye week, I wouldn't have lied about it. I would have said "Yeah. So what?"
But Johnny did lie, and got suspended. He was probably enraged over being treated like a child in the first place, and now humiliated, and he probably hated Mike Pettine's petticoated old lady guts.
Anyway, don't close that door all the way yet.
Now at the Senior Bowl practices Wentz impressed everybody. Notably, he threw with "great" anticipation, and made a great impression (showing leadership) on scouts, coaches, and players. At this point, he looks good for second overall (if it's not Goff).
But what about the other picks, atop the other rounds? There were guys at the Senior Bowl who could be there.
Braxton Miller was just too damn good to make it that far any more. Scouts say he ran sharp routes, and the whole route tree. I'm sure a lot of NFL GMs are shocked and amazed that Miller made the transition in one year (the consensus seems to be that it takes three or four years and rarely succeeds).
But if too many people are still too dumb to accept the obvious at face value, there's a remote chance that the next Antonio Brown could be there atop the second round.
As I've proven ad nauseam, wide receiver will not be a need for this team, but Miller is a rare bird, and would certainly be best available.
Miller could line up anywhere at any time, including at running back. That kind of versatility lets a coach get more of his best players on the field at the same time, more often.
Another potential second round guy is Noah Spence, who was basically the top passrusher in college last season. He's an outside linebacker who would fit Ray Horton's scheme perfectly. He's lined up everywhere, erect and down, and is viable in coverage.
Spence is 6'3", 253 lbs. Nobody should compare him to Nate Orchard, who is more a Kruger type. He's more like Scott Solomon, except more explosive and better in coverage. He's a prototype 3-4 OLB.
Unlike Johnny Manziel, Spence really was an addict (ecstasy), and a failed drug test at Ohio State got him permanently banned from the Big Ten. He went to rehab, and Urban Meier helped him get on with Eastern Kentucky. Noah wanted to rehabilitate his image by playing one more year while staying clean.
Without this in his record, he's a top fifteen talent. He's embarrassed everybody at the Senior Bowl and impressed in interviews.
Noah Spence could well be off the board for the Browns, but isn't the long shot Braxton Miller is. Passrushing is not exactly a need (see earlier entries) but could use a certain upgrade/insurance. Spence would be a safe pick with a high floor, and has a higher ceiling than Nate Orchard.
You'll hear about Carl Nassib, who is terrific but doesn't fit this scheme.
Cody Whitehair was maybe the top offensive line performer at the Senior Bowl. He's a right tackle or a guard. He fits a zone-blocking scheme, and should last into the third or fourth round.
He's noteworthy because Mitchell Schwartze is far from a lock to stick around, and many tackles who need to play guard in a conventional blocking system are fine at right tackle in a zone scheme.
Another low round guy who kicked butt at the Senior Bowl was tight end Jerelle Adams. Adams was moved all over the place by the coaches and was uncoverable.
He's 6'4", 245. He had weak quarterbacks, and didn't rack up extraordinary numbers as a receiver. CBS Sports of course says he needs to get bigger, but PFF rates him near the top as an in-line blocker. This guy is a real old school tight end who can play H-back in the NFL too.
The Browns are fine with Gary Barnidge right now, but could use some depth and an heir apparent behind him. He's already fairly refined in every area.
CBS Sports people aren't dumb about his size. NFL defensive ends and linebackers are bigger, so 245 is a little light for in-line blocking. But obviously, he should be up to 250 or so before training camp, and his techniques are good.
CBS is probably miscasting Adams as an in-line tight end, which he might only do half the time in the NFL. He is a lot like Barnidge (except faster). By now, everybody knows that Barnidge was right under a lot of people's noses for most of his career.
Maurice Cannaday is a 6'2" 192 lb. cornerback who also kicked butt in Senior Bowl practices.
PFF rated him in the bottom half of all college cornerbacks this past season, but were the same people who rated him as the top cornerback at the Senior Bowl.
They wondered aloud whether there might be some issue with discipline or concentration.
His statistics aren't unimpressive, with a ton of passes defensed. This guy shouldn't go before the fourth round.
After Justin Gilbert, who has had issues with discipline, and might not even like playing football much, the Browns will be very careful with guys like this, but he could be a sleeper.
The Browns don't need cornerbacks, in reality. They have cornerbacks coming out their ears. It's just that, except for Desir and Gilbert (I'm excluding anybody above age 32), they're like (ahem) Buster Skrine: Small, and overmatched by skyscraper X and Y receivers.
They'll be looking for guys like Cannaday, and he has looked good against the top Seniors this week.
Jordon Jenkins is another outside linebacker who could go late.
There are only thirty three picks ahead of the Browns second round pick, so they could get get Miller or Spence.
CBS has four outside linebackers rated ahead of Spence, but most of them fit 4-3 schemes better, so if somebody else nabs him, it will probably be a 3-4 or hybrid team. The Steelers and the Patriots are the biggest threats, but both teams have other needs as well.
Miller is currently rated tenth among wide receivers by CBS (behind Shepherd, who also looked very good at the Senior Bowl).
They have him going in the second or third round. I'll be checking that again, since Miller answered every question this week, and was THE biggest star of the practices.
With the cameras rolling and the recorders on, the scouts were careful, but when they thought no one was listening, it was "Wow did you see that!?"
All I can do is hope. Wentz can tear it up in the game all he wants. I hope Miller (who limped off the practice field Thursday) doesn't play or keeps limping.
Let everybody else take the "proven" "experienced" "outside" wide receivers.
At any rate, the Browns have a decent shot at landing a real stud in the second round. Miller and Spence are all that.
I'm not alone in thinking that, but might be alone about his on the field performance. Other "analysts" seem to be governed by emotion as they just have to close sentences about his off the field issues with "...hasn't done much on the field, either".
Compare his statistics to Josh McCown's. Remember he was basically a rookie, at the lowest end of a steep growth curve. Be fair: He looked terrific, in context.
The current PR from Haslam and the new front office will get quarterback-hungry teams to actually dig up Manziel's game tape and study them. Unlike local pundits, they will see a lot more good stuff than bad stuff, and the Browns know it.
And I can't disallow the possibility that just conceivably Manziel could be retained! Not that they wouldn't draft a quarterback first anyway.
As it is, Manziel has little value, and yet the talent to embarrass the new front office, should they dump him. His retention, in and of itself, is a tacit endorsement which would increase his trade value by one round.
Everything he did on the field in pre-season would be predictably great, and now we're talking some real value!
Go ahead and draft Goff or Wentz. Now, if Johnny has behaved, he can start, and kick butt, while the new kid incubates.
Those of you who think Johnny's partying in the off-season with other professional athletes is the same as skipping a concussion treatment to party in Vegas while his team plays it's last game are way overboard.
The aforementioned, and his unavailability to Mike Pettine, are legitimate concerns, but there is more to that story too:
If I were Johnny Manziel and was called on the carpet for partying on my bye week, I wouldn't have lied about it. I would have said "Yeah. So what?"
But Johnny did lie, and got suspended. He was probably enraged over being treated like a child in the first place, and now humiliated, and he probably hated Mike Pettine's petticoated old lady guts.
Anyway, don't close that door all the way yet.
Now at the Senior Bowl practices Wentz impressed everybody. Notably, he threw with "great" anticipation, and made a great impression (showing leadership) on scouts, coaches, and players. At this point, he looks good for second overall (if it's not Goff).
But what about the other picks, atop the other rounds? There were guys at the Senior Bowl who could be there.
Braxton Miller was just too damn good to make it that far any more. Scouts say he ran sharp routes, and the whole route tree. I'm sure a lot of NFL GMs are shocked and amazed that Miller made the transition in one year (the consensus seems to be that it takes three or four years and rarely succeeds).
But if too many people are still too dumb to accept the obvious at face value, there's a remote chance that the next Antonio Brown could be there atop the second round.
As I've proven ad nauseam, wide receiver will not be a need for this team, but Miller is a rare bird, and would certainly be best available.
Miller could line up anywhere at any time, including at running back. That kind of versatility lets a coach get more of his best players on the field at the same time, more often.
Another potential second round guy is Noah Spence, who was basically the top passrusher in college last season. He's an outside linebacker who would fit Ray Horton's scheme perfectly. He's lined up everywhere, erect and down, and is viable in coverage.
Spence is 6'3", 253 lbs. Nobody should compare him to Nate Orchard, who is more a Kruger type. He's more like Scott Solomon, except more explosive and better in coverage. He's a prototype 3-4 OLB.
Unlike Johnny Manziel, Spence really was an addict (ecstasy), and a failed drug test at Ohio State got him permanently banned from the Big Ten. He went to rehab, and Urban Meier helped him get on with Eastern Kentucky. Noah wanted to rehabilitate his image by playing one more year while staying clean.
Without this in his record, he's a top fifteen talent. He's embarrassed everybody at the Senior Bowl and impressed in interviews.
Noah Spence could well be off the board for the Browns, but isn't the long shot Braxton Miller is. Passrushing is not exactly a need (see earlier entries) but could use a certain upgrade/insurance. Spence would be a safe pick with a high floor, and has a higher ceiling than Nate Orchard.
You'll hear about Carl Nassib, who is terrific but doesn't fit this scheme.
Cody Whitehair was maybe the top offensive line performer at the Senior Bowl. He's a right tackle or a guard. He fits a zone-blocking scheme, and should last into the third or fourth round.
He's noteworthy because Mitchell Schwartze is far from a lock to stick around, and many tackles who need to play guard in a conventional blocking system are fine at right tackle in a zone scheme.
Another low round guy who kicked butt at the Senior Bowl was tight end Jerelle Adams. Adams was moved all over the place by the coaches and was uncoverable.
He's 6'4", 245. He had weak quarterbacks, and didn't rack up extraordinary numbers as a receiver. CBS Sports of course says he needs to get bigger, but PFF rates him near the top as an in-line blocker. This guy is a real old school tight end who can play H-back in the NFL too.
The Browns are fine with Gary Barnidge right now, but could use some depth and an heir apparent behind him. He's already fairly refined in every area.
CBS Sports people aren't dumb about his size. NFL defensive ends and linebackers are bigger, so 245 is a little light for in-line blocking. But obviously, he should be up to 250 or so before training camp, and his techniques are good.
CBS is probably miscasting Adams as an in-line tight end, which he might only do half the time in the NFL. He is a lot like Barnidge (except faster). By now, everybody knows that Barnidge was right under a lot of people's noses for most of his career.
Maurice Cannaday is a 6'2" 192 lb. cornerback who also kicked butt in Senior Bowl practices.
PFF rated him in the bottom half of all college cornerbacks this past season, but were the same people who rated him as the top cornerback at the Senior Bowl.
They wondered aloud whether there might be some issue with discipline or concentration.
His statistics aren't unimpressive, with a ton of passes defensed. This guy shouldn't go before the fourth round.
After Justin Gilbert, who has had issues with discipline, and might not even like playing football much, the Browns will be very careful with guys like this, but he could be a sleeper.
The Browns don't need cornerbacks, in reality. They have cornerbacks coming out their ears. It's just that, except for Desir and Gilbert (I'm excluding anybody above age 32), they're like (ahem) Buster Skrine: Small, and overmatched by skyscraper X and Y receivers.
They'll be looking for guys like Cannaday, and he has looked good against the top Seniors this week.
Jordon Jenkins is another outside linebacker who could go late.
There are only thirty three picks ahead of the Browns second round pick, so they could get get Miller or Spence.
CBS has four outside linebackers rated ahead of Spence, but most of them fit 4-3 schemes better, so if somebody else nabs him, it will probably be a 3-4 or hybrid team. The Steelers and the Patriots are the biggest threats, but both teams have other needs as well.
Miller is currently rated tenth among wide receivers by CBS (behind Shepherd, who also looked very good at the Senior Bowl).
They have him going in the second or third round. I'll be checking that again, since Miller answered every question this week, and was THE biggest star of the practices.
With the cameras rolling and the recorders on, the scouts were careful, but when they thought no one was listening, it was "Wow did you see that!?"
All I can do is hope. Wentz can tear it up in the game all he wants. I hope Miller (who limped off the practice field Thursday) doesn't play or keeps limping.
Let everybody else take the "proven" "experienced" "outside" wide receivers.
At any rate, the Browns have a decent shot at landing a real stud in the second round. Miller and Spence are all that.
Thursday, January 28, 2016
Senior Bowl and Browns Personnel Stuff
Carson Wentz had a decent second day (per Pro Football Focus), but made a late throw (ie failed to anticipate) to the sideline that should have been intercepted.
Braxton Miller looks fantastic, and PFF listed him first among all players. This is one wide receiver I wouldn't mind the Browns drafting. He says he models his game after Antonio Brown, and nobody is laughing. (Well, except for numerous blockheads who think he's years away from his wide receiver PHD).
Per PFF, Miller is among the best wide receivers in the draft in every category. On CBS's Big Board, Miller is currently listed tenth among wide receivers, and projected to go in the second or third round. Unfortunately, the Senior Bowl, Combine, and maybe Mike Mayock will probably elevate him considerably.
The negatives I've read cite a lack of route discipline and the fact that he hasn't been used on many intermediate routes. All that means is that he's not Antonio Brown yet.
Miller's almost instantaneous transition from (pretty good) quarterback to scary wide receiver should slap some of you awake about Terrelle Pryor.
Miller is 6'1", 204 and is no doubt more sudden and explosive than Pryor. The younger a guy is, the easier it is for him to learn new skills, but Pryor has big advantages in catch radius and size.
Bud Shaw reminded me of another quarterback who kind of resembles Carson Wentz: Blake Bortles. Here's another guy in a comparatively weak quarterback class who was way overdrafted at second overall. When you compare their scouting reports, Wentz actually has fewer warts on him than Bortles did.
As Bud said, if you plan to wait for a quarterback worthy of his high draft pick, you might as well circle 2020 on your calender. Quarterbacks will always cost a premium. That's the real world. Step away from the calculator.
Bortles was thrown right into the fire. The Jags wanted to let him incubate on the bench, but we're forced by circumstance to start him right away.
It's been rough for him, but he's made big strides, and was around average or above in his second season. Not many consider spending a second overall pick on him a mistake.
Wentz played vs a lower level of competition, but in a Pro Style system. Bortles is a little bigger, but Wentz is more athletic. Greg Cosell calls Wentz a natural thrower, but said Bortles wasn't. The two resemble each other, but Wentz seems to have an overall edge, and seems more pro-ready.
The Jaguars had Robinson, Hurns, and T J Yeldon last season, but a weak defense that sort of collapsed late. Bortles had to play from behind a lot. Raw statistics say he was pretty good. These statistics in the proper context say he was better than that.
The Browns next season might offer their quarterback more viable targets in Barnidge, Gordon, Hartline, Benjamin and Duke, and should (hopefully) have a better offensive line. Between Duke and Crowell, they should field comparable run support.
The Browns defense under Ray Horton should be at least a little better than the Jags were as well.
On that, I can't fault some analysts for listing outside linebacker, inside linebacker, cornerback and safety among the Browns needs. But (3-4) defensive end is just plain dumb, and you need to stop using the word "glaring" all the time. Without beating that dead horse, the Browns current defense already has the T A L E N T to be above average if they're allowed to develop and play.
Back to Wentz (or Goff): Unlike Blake Bortles, the Browns New kid in town won't have to play right away. Even if Josh McCown is injured, Austin Davis is a seasoned journeyman who can play pretty good football. He just needs to learn how to get out of bounds with time running out (dammit).
Troy Aikman expects Johnny Manziel or RGIII to be on the Dallas roster before next season. If the two are considered equal, RG is more logical, since he's a free agent. Manziel is a bonehead, but has looked better. Others could bid on RG too.
Braxton Miller looks fantastic, and PFF listed him first among all players. This is one wide receiver I wouldn't mind the Browns drafting. He says he models his game after Antonio Brown, and nobody is laughing. (Well, except for numerous blockheads who think he's years away from his wide receiver PHD).
Per PFF, Miller is among the best wide receivers in the draft in every category. On CBS's Big Board, Miller is currently listed tenth among wide receivers, and projected to go in the second or third round. Unfortunately, the Senior Bowl, Combine, and maybe Mike Mayock will probably elevate him considerably.
The negatives I've read cite a lack of route discipline and the fact that he hasn't been used on many intermediate routes. All that means is that he's not Antonio Brown yet.
Miller's almost instantaneous transition from (pretty good) quarterback to scary wide receiver should slap some of you awake about Terrelle Pryor.
Miller is 6'1", 204 and is no doubt more sudden and explosive than Pryor. The younger a guy is, the easier it is for him to learn new skills, but Pryor has big advantages in catch radius and size.
Bud Shaw reminded me of another quarterback who kind of resembles Carson Wentz: Blake Bortles. Here's another guy in a comparatively weak quarterback class who was way overdrafted at second overall. When you compare their scouting reports, Wentz actually has fewer warts on him than Bortles did.
As Bud said, if you plan to wait for a quarterback worthy of his high draft pick, you might as well circle 2020 on your calender. Quarterbacks will always cost a premium. That's the real world. Step away from the calculator.
Bortles was thrown right into the fire. The Jags wanted to let him incubate on the bench, but we're forced by circumstance to start him right away.
It's been rough for him, but he's made big strides, and was around average or above in his second season. Not many consider spending a second overall pick on him a mistake.
Wentz played vs a lower level of competition, but in a Pro Style system. Bortles is a little bigger, but Wentz is more athletic. Greg Cosell calls Wentz a natural thrower, but said Bortles wasn't. The two resemble each other, but Wentz seems to have an overall edge, and seems more pro-ready.
The Jaguars had Robinson, Hurns, and T J Yeldon last season, but a weak defense that sort of collapsed late. Bortles had to play from behind a lot. Raw statistics say he was pretty good. These statistics in the proper context say he was better than that.
The Browns next season might offer their quarterback more viable targets in Barnidge, Gordon, Hartline, Benjamin and Duke, and should (hopefully) have a better offensive line. Between Duke and Crowell, they should field comparable run support.
The Browns defense under Ray Horton should be at least a little better than the Jags were as well.
On that, I can't fault some analysts for listing outside linebacker, inside linebacker, cornerback and safety among the Browns needs. But (3-4) defensive end is just plain dumb, and you need to stop using the word "glaring" all the time. Without beating that dead horse, the Browns current defense already has the T A L E N T to be above average if they're allowed to develop and play.
Back to Wentz (or Goff): Unlike Blake Bortles, the Browns New kid in town won't have to play right away. Even if Josh McCown is injured, Austin Davis is a seasoned journeyman who can play pretty good football. He just needs to learn how to get out of bounds with time running out (dammit).
Troy Aikman expects Johnny Manziel or RGIII to be on the Dallas roster before next season. If the two are considered equal, RG is more logical, since he's a free agent. Manziel is a bonehead, but has looked better. Others could bid on RG too.
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Cleveland Browns Personnel and Draft Stuff
The more interesting (to me) of the two VP Personnel interviews the Browns just conducted is Lionel Vital. Literally every organization he has worked for has been very successful in the draft. He started out under Bill Belichick. Hate the guy all you want (I don't get that btw), but he's one of the best personnel guys in the business. I love his time under Ozzie Newsome as well.
Of course, I've known incompetent officers who retire as Captains and have to become Congressmen, so this doesn't necessarily mean that Vital is a genius or anything.
Going in his favor is the fact that he's held high positions on excellent staffs, and was always in demand. He might have bounced around on purpose, as other organizations offered him more money. I don't know.
Vital sounds pretty good to me though, in this position, in this organization, with DePodesta and Hue Jackson.
Terrelle Watson, who Hue Jackson probably had a lot to do with acquiring from the Bengals, is interesting. As a running back, he's nothing special, except probably on the goal line, but he has the physical dimensions of a super fast fullback. He could be tried there with the Browns.
He's a good receiver out of the backfield, and would work well as a runner on a zone-blocking team, but isn't here to challenge Crowell. He has a great chance to make the final roster, and if somebody gets hurt or needs a break, he can run some people over and move some chains. He's also here to help the other guys adapt to Hue's scheme.
Carson Wentz is stuck in my head now. Mike Mayock is badly outnumbered by people who rate Jared Goff higher, but that doesn't mean he's wrong. And as I've said about Mayock, he's the best when in comes to quarterbacks.
He's better than Phil Simms, who puts way too much weight on arm strength, how the ball looks leaving the hand, and fiery personalities.
Mayock has been studying quarterbacks with a critical eye for a long time, including his time as an NFL defensive back. The thing these players look for the most is mental mistakes.
As a safety, Mayock wanted to know how quickly a quarterback could progress through reads, or if he often got past his second read. Then, he wanted to know if he was a "Check down Charlie), or afraid to risk long passes. Then, he wanted to see if he locked onto receivers, or looked away from his real target before throwing. If he pump-faked. If he favored one guy too much, or one area of the field, or could throw to his left scrambling right or vice-versa.
Solomon Wilcotts is an analyst and commentator, but he's another guy I listen to about quarterbacks.
Mayock likes Wentz more than he likes Goff. If this were Phil Simms, I'd assume it's because he can throw harder, but because it's Mayock, I must pay attention. Clearly, Mayock isn't overly concerned about his reported tendency to lock onto receivers, or other criticisms I've heard just about everywhere else.
What if he's right, and the Browns agree?
Well, Goff will probably remain the popular pick, probably including with the Browns. But if it's close, the Browns will make no effort to trade up.
In fact, as we've all heard, Sashi Brown scoffed at the idea of trading up, and said that trading down would be more likely.
Always take anything these guys say with a grain of salt, of course, but he might have meant it. And it never hurts to advertise.
Taking a leap here, and assuming the questionable premise "Wentz=Goff", the Browns might trade down (sorry Tony).
It depends. The Panthers won't draft a quarterback, and if they stand pat, the Browns could safely move down one slot, since both quarterbacks are still there. If the Panthers trade down themselves, it's still possible that the other team would draft Bosa, or be dumb enough to draft a tackle.
But trading down is unlikely if the Browns see Goff or Wentz as the only two options. It could only be one slot, and the Chargers won't be motivated to do that dance.
But what if they decide Paxton Lynch will work?
Well, I'm getting in the weeds here. Lynch has huge talent, but is a huge risk. This is unlikely.
Based on what little I can get from the Senior Bowl, Carson Wentz threw with anticipation well in drills, and "looked good".
I'll be extremely interested in what Mike Mayock says about this kid after the Senior Bowl itself, because he's right there covering it as an analyst.
Of course, I've known incompetent officers who retire as Captains and have to become Congressmen, so this doesn't necessarily mean that Vital is a genius or anything.
Going in his favor is the fact that he's held high positions on excellent staffs, and was always in demand. He might have bounced around on purpose, as other organizations offered him more money. I don't know.
Vital sounds pretty good to me though, in this position, in this organization, with DePodesta and Hue Jackson.
Terrelle Watson, who Hue Jackson probably had a lot to do with acquiring from the Bengals, is interesting. As a running back, he's nothing special, except probably on the goal line, but he has the physical dimensions of a super fast fullback. He could be tried there with the Browns.
He's a good receiver out of the backfield, and would work well as a runner on a zone-blocking team, but isn't here to challenge Crowell. He has a great chance to make the final roster, and if somebody gets hurt or needs a break, he can run some people over and move some chains. He's also here to help the other guys adapt to Hue's scheme.
Carson Wentz is stuck in my head now. Mike Mayock is badly outnumbered by people who rate Jared Goff higher, but that doesn't mean he's wrong. And as I've said about Mayock, he's the best when in comes to quarterbacks.
He's better than Phil Simms, who puts way too much weight on arm strength, how the ball looks leaving the hand, and fiery personalities.
Mayock has been studying quarterbacks with a critical eye for a long time, including his time as an NFL defensive back. The thing these players look for the most is mental mistakes.
As a safety, Mayock wanted to know how quickly a quarterback could progress through reads, or if he often got past his second read. Then, he wanted to know if he was a "Check down Charlie), or afraid to risk long passes. Then, he wanted to see if he locked onto receivers, or looked away from his real target before throwing. If he pump-faked. If he favored one guy too much, or one area of the field, or could throw to his left scrambling right or vice-versa.
Solomon Wilcotts is an analyst and commentator, but he's another guy I listen to about quarterbacks.
Mayock likes Wentz more than he likes Goff. If this were Phil Simms, I'd assume it's because he can throw harder, but because it's Mayock, I must pay attention. Clearly, Mayock isn't overly concerned about his reported tendency to lock onto receivers, or other criticisms I've heard just about everywhere else.
What if he's right, and the Browns agree?
Well, Goff will probably remain the popular pick, probably including with the Browns. But if it's close, the Browns will make no effort to trade up.
In fact, as we've all heard, Sashi Brown scoffed at the idea of trading up, and said that trading down would be more likely.
Always take anything these guys say with a grain of salt, of course, but he might have meant it. And it never hurts to advertise.
Taking a leap here, and assuming the questionable premise "Wentz=Goff", the Browns might trade down (sorry Tony).
It depends. The Panthers won't draft a quarterback, and if they stand pat, the Browns could safely move down one slot, since both quarterbacks are still there. If the Panthers trade down themselves, it's still possible that the other team would draft Bosa, or be dumb enough to draft a tackle.
But trading down is unlikely if the Browns see Goff or Wentz as the only two options. It could only be one slot, and the Chargers won't be motivated to do that dance.
But what if they decide Paxton Lynch will work?
Well, I'm getting in the weeds here. Lynch has huge talent, but is a huge risk. This is unlikely.
Based on what little I can get from the Senior Bowl, Carson Wentz threw with anticipation well in drills, and "looked good".
I'll be extremely interested in what Mike Mayock says about this kid after the Senior Bowl itself, because he's right there covering it as an analyst.
2015 Browns Defensive Scheme Flaws
Chip Kelly just hired Jim O'Neill as his defensive coordinator. I'm not a stalker, and won't bash either guy here. Anyway, O'Neill wasn't the boss, and implemented what he was told to implement in Cleveland. In fact, I wish the guy luck.
Thanks to Oscar Aparicio in San Fran, I got a more detailed read, according to a player, of part of the problem with Mike Pettine's defensive system:
Nothing the defensive linemen did was pre-determined. Instead, they were told to react to how they were blocked.
This actually makes sense, and in the past I've suggested it myself. But that was when I was dumber.
Offenses caught into this quickly. Oscar didn't get to this in his article, but I can guarantee you that offensive linemen started faking the defensive linemen out, and getting them to commit the wrong way.
What Oscar did point out was based on what a player or players told him: The defensive linemen were perpetually uncertain, and thinking too hard. It was worse for the linebackers, who (likewise being clueless about what was about to happen) were expected to read the blocks in front of them before deciding what to do.
All of this caused all these players to play on their heels on every neutral or running down. They were suckered, or didn't read what they saw correctly, and were usually a step or two late.
The player(s) Oscar heard from (they may have been Buffalo Bills by the way; same system) may have been veterans. It has to be worse for rookies.
This article discussed the reasons it failed against the run. I'm not sure what Mike Pettine had these guys doing on passing downs (aside from dropping the outside linebackers into coverage too often).
The Ray Horton system is very, very different, and that's the biggest reason why his defenses tend to improve immediately over their previous year wherever he goes.
Philosophically, it's almost the opposite. Ray Horton forces offenses to react to him.
I'm not saying that his is a superior system. The Ryan system works with a veteran team which includes a Ray Lewis "field general" type. But Horton's far more aggressive schemes allow inexperienced players to rely on their instincts more. The linebackers and defensive linemen are on the same page, and know what they're supposed to do pre-snap.
Further, they're usually doing pretty much the same thing, situationally, on every down. Naturally, they get better at it, faster.
So last season, guys like Danny Shelton and Xavier Cooper (and even Jamie Meder), as the quarterback is making his calls and guys are going in motion, had to wait to see what they should do until they were engaged by one or more blockers. All they could do to help themselves was to try to put a blocker off-balance, and hope they could read his intentions before getting hopelessly locked up.
I have to say that for an extremely smart guy, Mike Pettine was pretty stubborn.
In a Horton defense, you might have a Cooper (or Bryant) between the left guard and tackle, and a Shelton between center and right guard. Their only instructions are "penetrate to the heels and THEN react".
The linebackers now have predefined gaps and obvious reads, depending on how successful the linemen are in doing what the linebacker knew they were going to do.
Digressing a little further here, this front is designed to make a mess, even if neither defensive lineman makes a tackle. Keep in mind that the center lines up about two feet in front of the other offensive linemen. In pass-blocking, that's no biggee, but as a run blocker vs an attacking defensive lineman, he has a tough angle to try to help out the right guard. He has to run backward, then turn foreward. He can go after a linebacker, leaving his right guard on an island, or he can rotate behind left guard to pick up a blitzing outside linebacker or seal off the defender that guard is blocking.
When neither defensive lineman (both of which are routinely double-teamed) makes much headway, they are still expected not to budge.
This forms two big "clots" to the left and right of the center. A running back can go up the middle, but the linebackers and safeties are as aware of that as he is. If he goes outside, he has to run all the way outside, giving smaller defenders time to head him off at the pass.
Don't forget the defensive lineman (maybe Hughes) in the right tackle's face. Only a tight end can help the right tackle, and that defender may either try to hold him there, or get past him.
For every player, this is fairly simple. The Browns players who have played for both Mike Pettine and Ray Horton are grinning ear-to-ear.
They know they probably won't instantly become a dominating defense, but will be much better, and will have fun playing football again.
Thanks to Oscar Aparicio in San Fran, I got a more detailed read, according to a player, of part of the problem with Mike Pettine's defensive system:
Nothing the defensive linemen did was pre-determined. Instead, they were told to react to how they were blocked.
This actually makes sense, and in the past I've suggested it myself. But that was when I was dumber.
Offenses caught into this quickly. Oscar didn't get to this in his article, but I can guarantee you that offensive linemen started faking the defensive linemen out, and getting them to commit the wrong way.
What Oscar did point out was based on what a player or players told him: The defensive linemen were perpetually uncertain, and thinking too hard. It was worse for the linebackers, who (likewise being clueless about what was about to happen) were expected to read the blocks in front of them before deciding what to do.
All of this caused all these players to play on their heels on every neutral or running down. They were suckered, or didn't read what they saw correctly, and were usually a step or two late.
The player(s) Oscar heard from (they may have been Buffalo Bills by the way; same system) may have been veterans. It has to be worse for rookies.
This article discussed the reasons it failed against the run. I'm not sure what Mike Pettine had these guys doing on passing downs (aside from dropping the outside linebackers into coverage too often).
The Ray Horton system is very, very different, and that's the biggest reason why his defenses tend to improve immediately over their previous year wherever he goes.
Philosophically, it's almost the opposite. Ray Horton forces offenses to react to him.
I'm not saying that his is a superior system. The Ryan system works with a veteran team which includes a Ray Lewis "field general" type. But Horton's far more aggressive schemes allow inexperienced players to rely on their instincts more. The linebackers and defensive linemen are on the same page, and know what they're supposed to do pre-snap.
Further, they're usually doing pretty much the same thing, situationally, on every down. Naturally, they get better at it, faster.
So last season, guys like Danny Shelton and Xavier Cooper (and even Jamie Meder), as the quarterback is making his calls and guys are going in motion, had to wait to see what they should do until they were engaged by one or more blockers. All they could do to help themselves was to try to put a blocker off-balance, and hope they could read his intentions before getting hopelessly locked up.
I have to say that for an extremely smart guy, Mike Pettine was pretty stubborn.
In a Horton defense, you might have a Cooper (or Bryant) between the left guard and tackle, and a Shelton between center and right guard. Their only instructions are "penetrate to the heels and THEN react".
The linebackers now have predefined gaps and obvious reads, depending on how successful the linemen are in doing what the linebacker knew they were going to do.
Digressing a little further here, this front is designed to make a mess, even if neither defensive lineman makes a tackle. Keep in mind that the center lines up about two feet in front of the other offensive linemen. In pass-blocking, that's no biggee, but as a run blocker vs an attacking defensive lineman, he has a tough angle to try to help out the right guard. He has to run backward, then turn foreward. He can go after a linebacker, leaving his right guard on an island, or he can rotate behind left guard to pick up a blitzing outside linebacker or seal off the defender that guard is blocking.
When neither defensive lineman (both of which are routinely double-teamed) makes much headway, they are still expected not to budge.
This forms two big "clots" to the left and right of the center. A running back can go up the middle, but the linebackers and safeties are as aware of that as he is. If he goes outside, he has to run all the way outside, giving smaller defenders time to head him off at the pass.
Don't forget the defensive lineman (maybe Hughes) in the right tackle's face. Only a tight end can help the right tackle, and that defender may either try to hold him there, or get past him.
For every player, this is fairly simple. The Browns players who have played for both Mike Pettine and Ray Horton are grinning ear-to-ear.
They know they probably won't instantly become a dominating defense, but will be much better, and will have fun playing football again.
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