Trading Down?

When Tony Grossi told us about rumors of a trade-down from number two, I was skeptical.  

Goff and Wentz are a clear cut above the other guys.  This could be the last chance they get at a top rated guy.  Even if they lose thirteen games again next season, the upcoming QB crop looks weaker, and drafting one then would set the rebuild back.

Still, you have to take this seriously.  Rumors mean nothing at this point.  "Speculations" is a more accurate word for what Tony is hearing.  In this case, the speculations are coming from smart football people.

The Browns will NOT trade down unless they do believe that another quarterback in this draft has franchise potential.  

Tony identifies the second tier as Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook, but these are very different guys.  Cook is a really good bet to be a solid starter, but doesn't look like a top ten NFL guy.

Lynch is a project, but has astronomical potential.  But he is also very high risk.  Whoever drafts him will have a lot of guts or be Chip Kelly.

Which brings up another problem: The Browns could trade down and then get leapfrogged, losing their targeted quarterback.  If that is Cook or Lynch, they don't dare move down more than one or two slots.

Two interesting guys on Tony's list are Hogan and Prescott.  I've heard a lot about these guys on Josh Gordon Radio.  Both will go late in the draft, but are seen as projects who could become franchise guys. (Correction Tony didn't list Prescott but he belongs here).

If Hue and company decide to go that way, all bets are off.  They could absolutely load up on talent all at once in this draft.

I still feel that these speculations about a trade-down are without merit.  As I've expounded upon at length and repeatedly, a lot of otherwise really smart people don't understand how DePodesta thinks, or what he is up to.

They assume that an analytics guy wants more draft picks instead of higher ones.  I'm not sure who started this, but he clearly thought that book smart geeks are too street dumb to comprehend that quarterback is different, and not far below are passrusher and left tackle.

It was analytics guys who calculated these values in the first place!!!

Risk and reward are also a big part of this.  Put it together: Quarterback, Risk, Reward.  Unless Hue Jackson puts his foot down about a Hogan or Lynch or somebody else that does not compute, Goff or Wentz are the only options.

Passing up a quarterback is not an option either.  That's way way way too risky.  "We'll just wait til next year!" for the most important position in football.  Yeah that's real analytical-like.

Lynch is a real possibility, though.  Hue might feel like Doctor Fankenstein.

Whether Tony is right or wrong, I hope they get the right guy.