Friday, April 15, 2016

Paxton Lynch, the 49ers, and the Browns

A sad Browns fan calling himself "Big Dawg" called in to NFL Radio to fence with Jim Miller.  Literally have to write this out as best as I can remember it, because it's a classic example of irrationality vs rationality:

Big Dawg:  How many times have the Browns drafted a quarterback at one or two and had any success?  It never works.  They need to trade down and build the rest of the team.

The offensive line to protect the quarterback, the defense to give him a chance.  Then we can draft a quarterback later.

Jim Miller:  Ok, but what if Hue Jackson goes to Sashi Brown and says "this is my guy.  This is a franchise guy and I need him at number two", and then they go ahead and trade that pick.  How do you think that's going to work out?" 

Big Dawg: (Re-read first quote).

Afterward, Miller throws his hands up.  "I just don't get it."

I don't either.  Big Dawg needs to know that the Browns have drafted only one quarterback in the top TWENTY since Kosar, and that was Tim Couch.

Tim Couch, despite playing on an expansion team and with a Head Coach who refused to alter his playbook one iota to exploit Couch's unique skill set, played surprisingly well as a rookie, and until tendinitis destroyed his elbow and then his shoulder.

It's irrational to pass up a franchise quarterback if he is there.  Literally EVERY General Manager says the same thing.  The quarterback is the most critical piece, and the hardest to find.

Big Dawg thinks the way to rebuild is to get lots of picks and assemble the supporting cast first.  This works with a game managing quarterback.  It works well enough to get a team to .500 and above, and guarantee that you will NEVER GET A TOP FIVE PICK AGAIN.

You will also never get to the Superbowl without a franchise quarterback.

Another guy argued persistently about trading down and getting the franchise guy in the fourth or fifth round.  You know, it just takes longer to develop him, is all.

As Miller said, how often does that work out?  I think about seven percent of the time.  Let's see Brady, Romo...uhh....make that four percent there's some great analytics for ya!

These geniuses embarrass me.  Please stop making it look like Cleveland is stupid.

But those who know me know that I always want to trade down, which is why I looked so much harder at the other quarterbacks in this draft trying to find an excuse to do so.

The consensus is that Paxton Lynch is not in the same class as Goff or Wentz, but Hue Jackson has not weighed in.

The 49ers are in a tug of war with Colin Kaepernick, who feels insulted and is ignoring the opportunity Chip Kelly offers him.

He holds all the cards, because John Elway isn't budging on his low ball offer.  If Kaepernick doesn't take a five mil/year pay cut, he's a 49er period unless they cut him.

If they cut him, somebody will sign him.  He will have to take Elway's offer anyway, because nobody will pay him more than RG3.

The 49ers and Eagles are potential trade partners.  The Eagles rumors contain a lot more hot air, however.  Sam Bradford is a selfish greedy dirt bag, but he's also a really good quarterback when he's healthy.

They just overpaid him, right?  The rumors come from the fact that Bradford is made if fine crystal.  They need depth at quarterback, and to replace him down the road.  (They'll have to.  He'll start half his scheduled games and demand 25 mil/year again).

If IF IF Hue Jackson signs off on Lynch, the Browns could trade down with San Fransisco to number seven.  Never mind the picks, just say it's a haul.

With both Goff and Wentz gone, Lynch and Cook are now the top two quarterbacks left.

Phil Savage actually said that in this scenario, he didn't think any of the remaining top ten teams would draft a quarterback.  The Browns might actually be safe at seven if Lynch is their guy.

I'd still worry about Philadelphia, but Connor Cook could be the guy for them anyway.  Lynch is partly in the second tier because he is a project.  Cook is pro-ready, and the Eagles know they might need to start him early, when Bradford gets hurt getting off the bus.

The Jets are in their own tug of war with Fitzpatrick, but they're at twenty, and it's hard to imagine them trading most of their draft to jump ahead of the Browns for a project.

The Browns are openly rebuilding (regardless of what Hue Jackson is obliged to say).  They now have several veteran quarterbacks on the roster, and are prepared to go to war with them for the 2016 season.

The other teams in need of a quarterback will want that guy to start as soon as possible, and that's not Paxton Lynch.

So the trade-down to seven could land them Paxton Lynch (who everybody will say was taken way too high).

Ok let's speculate on the haul. 

Well first, San Fransisco: There is some pretty good talent on that team, and quarterback play has been the main thing holding them back.  

The high second rounder, then deferred 2017 picks.  Maybe just their first.  That might be unrealistic though.  It's only five slots.  A 2017 second and fourth, maybe.

Then we come to Joe Thomas: Maybe we get Seattle's first rounder as well, and something else too in 2017.

Hey, look up "Rebuilding" in yet Funk&;Wagnall


No comments: