Disclaimer: This is how things should work. It may not apply to the Cleveland Browns. All of you know what I mean.
1: The TItans don't need/won't draft a quarterback. Everybody knows that.
2: Nobody will offer the Titans the stars and moon and first born children for anything except a quarterback.
3: Consensus says that different teams will fixate on only one quarterback, and consider the other (Goff or Wentz) dirt.
3a: The consensus top quarterback this year is Wentz. And Goff.
3b (stick with me here): Consensus 3 is idiocy. Consensus 3b is reality.
3c: See 3a.
4: It is almost irrelevant which of these two quarterbacks is Hue Jackson's favorite--if he even has one. Hue Jackson believes he will put whoever it is in the Hall of Fame.
4a: The Cleveland Browns will draft Goff or Wentz second overall.
4b: Hue Jackson has not yet been proven to be mentally impaired. He is highly unlikely to regard either quarterback as significantly inferior to the other.
4c: Everybody with a brain knows this. Hence they know that, barring a trade, the first quarterback will come off the board at number two.
5: Barring such a trade, Goff or Wentz will remain on the board at number three.
6: The cost of moving up to number three in the draft is much cheaper than moving up to number one.
6a: Goff and Wentz are regarded as a cut above every other quarterback, by a fairly wide margin.
6b: Niether is regarded as significantly superior to the other.
7: Jerry Jones has abdicated GM responsibilities to his son, and is honoring this.
7a: Steven Jones is very smart. Not to mention sane.
8: Paxton Lynch is regarded by some as the second tier of quarterbacks all by himself. But the majority of decision-makers consider him one of three or four project-types with great upside.
I have to abandon the numbers here: Connor Cook is pro-ready and a solid prospect. Lynch isn't ready, but has astronomical potential. No fewer than three or four other guys in this class fall in between these two, and all except perhaps Lynch will be available to every team, in some cases into the fifth round.
One scout called this the worst quarterback class he had ever seen. Please pray that he doesn't work for the Browns, or that at least he will be fired asap, because he is an idiot.
In this situation, the first overall Titans lack leverage. The Chargers, at third overall, are the ones who will be taking a lot of calls.
The Titans' big problem is that everybody knows they don't need a quarterback.
Nobody will want to be the one to give up half their draft picks to get one or the other. Market distortions here are a creation of clueless pundits . Goff and Wentz are 1 and 1a, in either order.
One or the other will be there third overall.
If anybody trades up to number one to make sure the Browns can't have one or the other, they are a dumbass.
And everybody knows it. Nobody wants to be that guy.
Third overall is different. That's when only one top tier quarterback will remain.
Several teams are thinking about trading up to number one, but they won't, unless they can believe that one of the other thirty one GMs is extra stupid.
Among the second tier, Connor Cook's ceiling isn't the highest, but his floor is as a top-notch game manager.
It is true that there is no Andrew Luck in this draft. This ices the cake:
The Cleveland Browns should, for the first time since Tim Couch, have their choice of quarterback.
And they will pick: Carson Wentz.
Or Jared Goff.
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