From an "analytics" perspective, there are tons of possibilities for Sashi and company tonight.
Hue Jackson does have a strong voice here, and a quarterback choice could make a big difference.
If he thinks Lynch is the guy, eight is NOT too high to pick him. As it is, he might not make it past the Niners at seven. If Hue wants him, other teams probably want him. If Sashi gets greedy and trades down, he's likely to get leapfrogged and lose Lynch.
I believe Joe Thomas will be traded. I think the Seahawks are the likeliest partners. Their first round pick and a third this year or second next year might be the compensation.
Here is a link to Gilbert Brandt's top 100. The Thomas trade would net them a bunch of these guys.
Wentz and Goff are seven and eight respectively, so their going higher won't help the Browns at number eight.
Christian Hackenberg is 86th. Braxton Miller is 75th. Noah Spence is 66th. This should illustrate how this order has little to do with where these guys will actually be drafted. It merely reflects Gil's (historically accurate) opinion of the best players in this draft.
Here is Gil's 2016 All Draft Team. His wide receivers are Corey Coleman and Josh Doctson. One of his linebackers is Darron Lee of Ohio State, who he ranks 15th. Lee could well be there in the second round.
Here is Brandt's seven players who he feels deserve more "buzz".
Number one is WR Tyler Boyd, who is 6'1".
Second is DB Sean Davis. Davis is good now, but is on the upswing.
Here's Mike Mayock's rankings by position.
Hackenberg is his fifth quarterback. Prescott isn't listed. Hackenberg could be a Jackson stealth target. I suppose it could be Cook, at number four, but I don't think so.
Mike ranks Treadwell number one among wide receivers...so I take back what I said about him. Mayock knows better. Not at eight though. Weak crop here. Not at eight. He ranks Micheal Thomas fifth.
Jerrell Adams is right behind Hunter Henry at tight end. That guy could be a lower third round steal. I found out he CAN block!
He sees Taylor Decker as the fourth best offensive tackle, then Ifedi. If the Browns trade Big Joe, they could well draft more than one of these guys. Only the top two are solid projections to left tackle. Conklin shows real promise there, but the other guys have question marks. He doesn't list Spriggs, but I'm sure he's sixth.
Ah! Mayock doesn't even list Noah Spence among his edge-rushers! I think he missed on this one! Spence rote havoc at the Senior Bowl!
This guy could slide and be a Browns steal.
I have no clue about what Hue thinks of Paxton Lynch. I just know that if he isn't a target, Sashi SHOULD trade down. He can only get one of Brandt's twelve elite players as it is. He could move four slots and not lose anything, technically.
Zeke Elliott is being talked about a lot, and no doubt this will any moment be called a "rumor".
Lynch can't be a "rumor", since the analytics guys would never conceivably consider drafting him so far above his projected position.
Nobody gets it, still. Those rules don't apply to quarterbacks, even for geeks. The calculation would be: Can we move down and not lose him, and if so, how far?"
I'd love to have Elliott, Duke, and Crow. Elliott can do everything both of them can do. He's built like Marshawn Lynch. He had great blocking at Ohio State, which makes some of us nervous. But for all we know, maybe he has a Beast Mode of his own he just hasn't had to wake up yet.
But (if it's not Lynch), they could pick up another second or third rounder and still get a Buckner, Conklin, Jack, or Hargreaves.
That second rounder could be a Nkemdiche, Spence, or Miller.
Or that third rounder could be a Jerrell Adams. Any combination of any two players above would help the Browns more than one player.
Imagine eight or even nine top one hundred players on the Browns. Top 100 players tend to start, or at least contribute a lot, as rookies.
The average any team gets are three. Round it off to three percent. The Browns could hog up eight or nine percent.
Naturally, sometimes you miss. Some personnel people are better than others. We don't know how good this front office is yet, but if we assume they are average, they should get two out of three right. Call it five.
There are twenty two starters. Five is around twenty three percent. That's a pretty good start on rebuilding.
Except the rebuilding has already started. Bitonio, Shelton, Campbell, Duke, Cooper, and Orchard are already here. That makes it eleven; fifty percent.
This would be the core of the new team. Now what about the two first round picks in 17 and two second rounders in 18?
This is why "five years" is laughable.
Of course, you need that quarterback...
Just read another horrible mock draft. Browns dump three draft picks to move up to three for a position player. Draft Connor Cook. A running back (because they desperately need a playmayger). Some linemen. No tackles.
Some really interesting receivers in the lower rounds, though. That saved him from failing. D.
Listening to Ross Tucker and Booger McFarland on NFL Radio now. Booger is wrong a lot but gets the best out of Ross.
Ross doesn't see Chip Kelly grabbing Lynch at seven. He feels Chip won't want a guy that needs a lot of work. The Niners aren't rebuilding to the extent the Browns are, and have some key pieces in place. It would also undermine his leverage with Kaepernick, who I believe he would like to retain.
I hope Ross and I are right. Rappaport said that the Saints might take Lynch. I know I would (if I really liked him) because Drew Brees is very, very old.
But I don't believe they'd jump the Browns for him. They just got a dangerous free agent tight end and a couple guys on defense. They can still score a ton of points. They need their draft ammo to have a shot at the Big Dance before Brees retires.
I'm leaning in Lynch's direction because of Hue Jackson. Filtering out the ten percent of what he said about franchise quarterbacks which flirted with reality, here's what I think he thinks:
I can find a way to use all that talent, even if he can't process information very fast. Even if he can't get to his third read half the time. I can get a smart center to help with protections. I can read option, bubble screen, roll out, and build a scary running game.
I think Hue thinks he can make ANY quarterback who is willing to be coached and to work at least a really good one, by any means necessary.
If I'm right about that, then he wants the guy with the most upside in this whole draft.
But then there's Hackenberg. I have no idea about that guy. For all I know, Hue likes him at least almost as much, and he would be much cheaper. Still think Lynch, though:
Steady improvement throughout his career. Largely self-taught. Freakish footwork, quickness, speed, and release for his height.
Here is my prediction: The Browns will draft Lynch, Hackenberg, Prescott, or some other quarterback at eight, or lower, on day one, two, or three. Also, if not, then they won't draft a quarterback. Take that to the bank.
Next, they will either draft somebody at eight, or else trade down.
Seriously though, Thomas to the Seahawks and a left tackle in the first or second. And if they do trade down, it means they're at least willing to risk Lynch, and the backup plan is more likely to be Hackenberg than anybody else.
In addition to the top 100 picks, there will be promising offensive linemen, interior defensive linemen, tweener receivers, and safeties through and beyond the fourth round.
This may have factored in to the Schwartz and Mack decisions.
Sashi will probably keep trying to exploit the hot seat bias, and get deferred picks a round higher when he can in trades...
And oh yeah: They are far more likely to auction the top second round pick than to trade up from it.
Now you know what to think, and why to think it. Glad to help out. Go Sashi Brown!
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