Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller oversaw their first NFL Radio Fan Draft yesterday. Frequent callers to their show from each city acted as GMs for their respective teams.
Goff went first, of course. Then the bonehead from the Rams picked Jalen Ramsey. That's right. The Rams just traded a boatload of picks for a cornerback.
The guy from Dallas regained consciousness in time to nab Wentz at four.
When it came to pick number eight, "Toddy O", a smart and thoughtful Browns fan that I'm proud to have represent us, listened to Pat Kirwan:
"Okay, now before you make this pick, you've got to ask yourself, what is the Browns number one need?"
"Quarterback", Todd replied.
"Okay. Go ahead and make your pick."
"Ezekial Elliot". That's right. Never mind Paxton Lynch. We'll just get a quarterback later.
We'll just go down to the magical orchard and pick a quarterback off the quarterback tree! Toddy O, yyyooouurrr fired!
And Terry Pluto demoted himself in my eyes (or maybe I'm just surpassing him). In advocating for Elliott, he said that running back was a huge need.
I'm so tired of the Crowell bashing! That dude is a stud when he gets just a little blocking, and when the defense can't key him to the weak side every damn time he takes a snap!
Last season I saw Green Bay pretty much shut Adrian Peterson down, and it wasn't the first time that happened. Why aren't Vikings fans trying to replace AP?
For crying out loud running backs don't play in a vacuum any more than quarterbacks do!
Yes, Zeke Elliott is a great player and better than Crowell ok? He's a ten. My point is, Crowell is a nine. What huge need?! The huge need is to scheme and block well enough that the ball carrier has to make ONE guy miss, or break ONE tackle. Not THREE AT ONCE what do you expect?!
But then, I'm not Hue Jackson. He knows quarterbacks. If he doesn't think Lynch is that special, who am I to disagree?
And if Lynch is gone, or Hue green lights whatever, Ezekial Elliott would be fine with me (Todd you're re-hired on a probationary basis).
As I learned from Pluto's (linked) article, Hue actually relies heavily on the run. His success with Dalton gets the big spotlight, but as Terry points out, that was helped massively by the fact that the Bengals did some serious damage on the ground.
Trying to stop that takes people out of coverage and makes blitzes much more dangerous.
Terry didn't mention that Giovani Bernard was heavily involved in the passing game as well. He and the tight end were Dalton's best friends vs pressure.
Terry's statistics covered handoffs only. If he'd looked up number of touches, he'd probably have found that running backs got the ball around 60% of the time!
Behind Crowell and Duke, there are journeymen, and I've stipulated that better depth would be nice.
But Terry, rare dumb statements aside, is terrific, and did open my eyes to the run-heavy nature of Jackson's ideal offense.
That's why I unfired Todd. IF IF IF HUE HUE HUE passes up Lynch at eight, adding Elliott would upgrade the bell cow spot, and also upgrade depth dramatically.
Elliott is much more refined and advanced than most college backs; ready to step right in on all three downs. Because of his height, he's a more quarterback-friendly receiver than the other guys, and he has the speed to line up in the slot and blow the doors off linebackers.
In an earlier blog, I suggested Henry in the second round. Zeke projects much better to the pros, because he's shifter and can avoid contact. Henry is a huge target for nasty hits, and his legs are the only way to take him down.
Henry will probably be the next Nigerian Nightmare in the NFL, but might have a short carreer.
Another guy in NFL Radio I now like and rely on as much as Ross Tucker is Maurice Jones-Drew. This guy was a great little running back who then became a fantasy football maven and is now one of the best damn analysts I've ever heard.
While Pat Kirwan is talking about Henry kicking ass (which he certainly WILL), Maurice talks about "surface area" and leverage. Far from bemoaning his own diminutive stature, Maurice feels lucky to have been built so low to the ground. He didn't get injured a lot, see?
Elliott is six feet tall, which is not great, but his elusiveness and instincts will protect him. He should be a durable workhorse. He's as close to a can't miss pick as you can find.
Hue could use him in every role. He can be Duke. He can be Crow. He's not as good as Gurley. He is better. Better than Lacy when Lacy isn't a tubb too. Not a better runner than AP, but a better receiver and maybe blocker; better in total.
But quarterback trumps every other position, so if Hue says draft Lynch instead, I don't want to hear any whining.
On that topic, and after reading this, I now think I was wrong not to ignore the talking heads telling us that Hue has to desperately need a franchise quarterback asap.
According to Hue, franchise quarterbacks are at least as much made as born.
How do you make them? Here's my version of the recipe:
Two parts blocking, two parts catching, and one part running. (Oh yeah and one part coaching and one part playcalling.)
Hue says he likes the guys he has. You will most likely call that Coacheze, but I think it's honesty. RG3 may or may not be great again, but McCown (if he's not traded-though I think he will be) proved last season that his Chicago stint was no fluke. Austin Davis was servicable (needs to eliminate the loud stinky brain-farts mostly).
I plead guilty of dissing Connor Shaw. There's a new Sherriff in town (Jackson), and Shaw (now a veteran with a smattering of experience), has a clean slate.
This guy is on the short side and doesn't have a strong arm, but that's all that's wrong with him. Jim Miller taught me that arm strength can be improved. Miller cites Tom Brady as exhibit A. Shaw should return with more grains of powder.
All this guy did in college was rewrite the NCAA record books. He's a dual threat as well, and very accurate. If you can call Joe Montana a franchise quarterback, put down your "career backup" rubber stamp for now.
In this article, which I link in because the writer really isn't a dumbass, there is a lot of dumbassitude. The Browns roster isn't a barren wasteland. I don't even care that Ross Tucker agrees with that. You're both wrong.
Certainly there are at least 25 other teams with better overall talent, but quit calling Shelton, Bitonio, Barnidge, Hawkins, Hartline, Haden, Kirksey, Crow, Duke, the Bryants, Solomon, Greco, Hughes, Davis, Kruger, Pasztor etc. bumbs.
And look up "talent" in your Funk & Wagnall. See the pictures of Gilbert, Mingo, and Pryor there?
I got more. Want some more? That's what I thought. Hope you noticed I left Thomas and McCown and the cornerbacks out btw.
Mingo wow!!! I've finally seen him and whoa nellie he's the freaking HULK man! That's amazing! Are you counting him out? With Ray Horton? Really? Why?
Take the excrement colored glasses off ok? Pro Football Focus rated him HIGH vs the run at 240 lbs and cited use in coverage and inability to bull rush (an assumption on my part) as an issue.
When I heard he was now 265 lbs I didn't believe it, but now I've seen him. If he's retained most of his speed and flexibility, he could be a HUGE sleeper right here on this very roster!
And Gilbert! ...okay no new news here and he was like Johnny except not drunk all the time BUT he's in his final contract year, people DO mature as they age, and if you tell an athletic freak dumbass "you cover that guy" and don't make him think, you've got a shot at creating a stud see?
Well maybe you don't, but Ray Horton was a safety and HE does, so stop the eulogy for now. Let's see okay? New coaches. New scheme. If he doesn't kick ass this year he's in for a massive pay cut if he can even hang around the league. That's called "motivation".
But I digress:
Gil Brandt (who is always right about these things) says that in this draft, twelve players are instant impact game-changers. (Paxton Lynch isn't one of these. He thinks Lynch could be awesome in time, but can't be certain of it, and he uses immediacy as a key criterion see?)
Per Gil, from thirteen to (I think) 48 are very good players who should start immediately, some of which could be great in time.
Brandt was actually an analytics pioneer in the NFL. They just hadn't invented the four-syllable name for it yet. But this is why he's almost always right.
Trust me: DePodesta knows this, and is cloning as much of Gilbert Brandt as he can. Meanwhile, he will lean on the meistro for his own plotting and scheming.
The Browns know they won't contend on 2016. They believe they can be "feisty", but accomplish nothing concrete. Several close games. Four wins, maybe, late in the season. (Shut up Black Cloud. I want 1-11 and a first overall pick but this crew is experienced and smart and can't avoid beating Baltimore and stuff and there IS talent here so deal with it).
"Immediacy" doesn't matter. It won't matter until they can contend for at least a wild card. Talent (potential) weighs heaviest here. All projects are welcome here in 2016. Talent trumps pro-readiness.
This is why if somebody else wants one of the top twelve (or Lynch IF IF IF Hue green lights this) badly enough to surrender enough picks, Sashi will move down some more.
Grossi will have a fit. Tough. The Browns can go to fourteen and still get an instant impact player (or possibly Lynch). Or they can move down further and pile up more/higher draft picks.
Teams and situations ignored, if they dropped four slots to twelve, and landed another second round pick this year, that would be mathematically perfect.
That's because they'd still get a Gil Brandt instastud plus another top 48 guy, see?
But if they moved down further, that could be okay too. They wouldn't get the immediate impact guy, but certainly add another second tier guy (who might be a Pro Bowler in 2017).
...and higher picks in the future.
Brandt and Kirwan taught me this: General Managers tend to be much freer with future draft picks than with current ones. This is because they get fired so often. In particular, general managers on the hot seat are fighting for their career lives, so they'll sacrifice a second round pick next year to keep a third round pick this year.
After all, the third round pick could save their job. If not, the missing second round pick next year will be the next guy's problem.
DePodesta probably knew this several years ago. Sashi did too. They'll exploit it to the max.
Don't throw the Hair Trigger Haslam crap at this. He SAID PUBLICLY "several years" didn't you hear that? This crew's first season is a freebie. Even 0-16 won't matter.
They can lose 12 or more games in year 2. Not until after their third year will Haslam even think about changes.
No doubt, Paul DePodesta said to Jimmy what I'm saying to you: We will imitate Bill Belichick.
Black Cloud, one of my occasional readers, will bring up Tom Brady and Bill's record here, but that's because he's a stalker. He'll be sending me Johnny Manziel clips until one of the three of us dies.
In reality, Bill, like me, has analytics ingrained into him. He trades seventh round picks for sixth round picks next year. He repeats this, year after year. After four years, that seventh is a third. I think he cashed one of them in in the second round, five years later. At any rate, he uses them when he spots a great deal.
This is part of analytics. Sashi Brown accepted a 2017 first rounder and a 2018 second rounder as part of this deal. "Pro ready", "immediate impact" will matter when a team contends. Only TALENT matters to a rebuilding team.
That, and more and higher draft picks, now or later.
Whatever Hue Jackson signs off on works for me, for now. He will need to prove he became a dumbass before I'll second guess him.
As for Sashi, I withdraw my earlier bashing: So far, so good. They've just got to hit on those picks.
Black Cloud predicts nothing but swings and misses. Because different people missed before.
Ever get hired by somebody, then bashed for stuff your predecessor did? That's not fair, or objective, or rational, is it?
I want Paxton Lynch. But I know what I don't know. So does Sashi Brown. In a couple years, I'll tell you how he did.
I believe Joe Thomas will go to Seattle for their first round pick, and more. Or possibly to Tennessee at 15, at the expense of minor Browns concessions or Josh McCown.
If nobody is willing to give up at least a fourth round pick for McCown, and Brown lets him go cheaper, I'll get an early start bashing Sashi Brown.
I can tell you now: ALL players are on the trading block. Like last season, when Ray Farmer accepted calls on Joe Thomas.
Farmer never tried to trade him. Do you comprehend this? And if you think Farmer nixing it because Denver wouldn't include a third round pick makes him a dumbass, YOU are a dumbass.
Anyway, my own Lynch obsession doesn't matter if Hue disagrees. Therefore, so far so good.
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