I want to thank the Bleacher Report for awarding the Cleveland Browns an A-minus on their selection of Corey Coleman in the first round. It goes without saying that Hue and Sashi are greatly encouraged, and will strive to keep earning high grades from you in the future!
But seriously, I was hoping for some fireworks in rounds two and three, and didn't get any. Therefore, I humbly submit to the Bleacher Report that they should give Sashi and Hue a bad grade for rounds two and three.
Please don't misunderstand me. I know that you know what you're doing. I personally would want no part of the responsibility you bear. I would never presume to question your expertise. I'm merely expressing my own uninformed opinion, for you to consider or disregard as you deem proper.
Ok it's day 3 now and Sashi has found exactly NONE of the sleepers I told him about. I'm having to look these guys up from scratch.
First, it doesn't matter what tabloid experts or even ex-GMs and scouts say, or where these players were projected. Polian, Kirwan, Brandt, etc will tell you this, even when they say "I don't understand this pick".
Each team does its own research and sets up its own board. The best ones are those least influenced by consensus. Consensus is the herd.
That's because they learn about players face to face, and might recognize things others don't.
I'm not declaring success or failure here. I have no idea, and admit it. But I am saying this: NIETHER DO YOU. Keep an open mind. Be an armchair basher later.
Thus far, I see four wide receivers drafted. I can't believe this means Pryor is gone, but could well render Hawkins trade bait. Coleman will certainly take up one spot. Hartline seems too important as a big reliable guy to dump.
They unmistakably rolled the dice on these guys after Coleman, because the math says that at least one of them, and maybe as many as three, will get cut.
One guy (bad hands) has been discussed as a potential defensive back project. The practice squad could save somebody.
Historically, the failure rates outside of the top 100 are pretty high. I think the analytics geeks put their egos aside and accepted the probability that some of these guys will fail, so:
They took three more of them, expecting one NOT to fail. They prioritized wide receiver. They tried to make sure they could have a decent corps of them entering their inaugural season.
It makes sense. It usually takes a wide receiver around two seasons before he's mastered the nuances, and often a third season before he peaks.
Wide receiver was the big weak spot on the offense, even after losing Schwartz and Mack.
They can reasonably expect Coleman to make an immediate impact and do okay as he develops. They presumably like Hawkins as a slot guy, but are troubled by his injuries. His age, while not too bad, is still another factor.
Hartline isn't waiver or trade-proof. In fact, they hope the rookies will make him expendable. But it's unlikely.
Pryor, for all his talent, is unproven, and can't be counted on (even by his biggest fan, me). Including the promising microbe Jennings, eight receivers will be fighting for spots here.
They did it on purpose.
DeValve is unmistakably a candidate for "move" tight end. The scouting report you will read if you click that link seems flawed to me.
This guy has been working against cornerbacks and small safeties. He should have enough "suddenness" to get separation from linebackers on predominantly inside vertically biased routes.
Drango is a calculated risk as a potential starter, but a good bet for depth.
Kindred is more interesting. Gil Brandt guarantees he will be a special teams demon. As a safety, he (unlike Rodney Campbellfield), is best confined to the box.
But he is a potential rookie contributor in that role as well. He's an intimidator and a human missile. He is here first and foremost to make people sorry they touched the football, and to look for him before they do.
Oh he missed some tackles? Here's a hammer. Break your collarbone with it. Done? Ok now tackle somebody JEEEEZ
Ogbah was the most gifted of the remaining defensive end/olb prospects, and I suspect that Noah Spence's history, after Johnny and Josh, influenced this pick more than it should have, because Spence is much better in terms of production.
Still, Ogbah is a freak. In subs (70% of the time), he's well suited to either DE slot, and he has the athleticism to stand up. He's strong as hell AND fast as hell.
He's raw and needs work/refinement, and he's been accused of taking plays off. Ray Horton and company clearly feel they can take care of that.
His role will be the same here as Bosa's in San Diego.
Nassib is the same kind of player, and will compete directly with Ogbah, Orchard, Mingo, and Kruger. Unlike Ogbah, Nassib is relentless. But he's less talented and needs even more work. Despite his draft position, there's a good chance he lands on the practice squad. Late edit: That's idiotic somebody would claim him forget I said it.
Nassib could also gain some weight, and actually play 3-4 LDE.
Like with the wide receivers, evidently they want to try to make sure they get DE/OLB covered in Ray's defense. This is about outside pressure in the passing game.
Cody Kessler will have the permabashers all over them, since it seems doubtful that they needed to spend that high a pick on him. But the fact that they did burn a third round pick on him definitely means that it was important to Hue (and you'll have to trust me on this: It was Hue) not to lose him.
Despite the consensus expert head-scratching over this pick, it's also quite possible that the BIA (Browns Intelligence Agency) suspected that somebody else was eyeballing him.
Without getting too deep into the weeds here, Front Office people can learn much from interviewing the player himself, and talking to his agent.
They have no reason to hide other teams interest in them. In fact, telling Hue or Sashi that the Ravens or somebody seemed excited only helps nudge the Browns into drafting them higher.
There are other ways to know, but if I told you I'd have to...never mind.
Anyway, Hue wanted this particular guy and wanted him a lot. If you are calling him an idiot, take a pill. Even the real experts who don't like the pick don't go anywhere near there.
Hue clearly values accuracy above all else. Kessler is labelled a game manager who throws ink passes and won't go deep. Timid.
I suspect that for Hue, this is easily fixed. Much, much easier to fix than, say, inaccuracy. In fact I don't need to channel Hue to tell you that duh.
I don't know his system or his coaches or their mandates. Don't know his team's personnel. If they lacked a deep threat, Kessler took what he could get.
The scouting report I linked listed other issues; the throwing on the move one often can't be fixed, but...see "Tom Brady".
I know what I don't know. I'll start picking on Hue after a couple years if...Kessler has been released he was drafted at the bottom of the third round for crying out loud gimme a break.
Oh holy crap Scooby Wright in the seventh round are you kidding me?
This guy is EXCELLENT! He slid a lot because he was banged up in 2015 and is pretty slow (4.86). But he makes up for it with aggressiveness and instincts.
Listen to me: Some guys can just feel what's coming and start moving before everybody else, and Wright is one of these rare (and underestimated) individuals. Being a fraction of a second slower than you should be doesn't matter when you've taken your first step before anybody else has moved.
He's also dinged for his size (6', 239). He can get trampled at the point of attack.
Scooby is a run-and-hit guy that you don't want messing with offensive linemen, but there is a definite and valuable role for him in a Horton defense.
This guy doesn't just chase people down and tackle them from behind. He blows things up in the backfield and gets sacks. He plays downhill as much as he can. He's an inspirational ball of energy and a born leader.
If I sound overly excited by this pick it's because I am. This guy would be a good pick in the third round, but in the seventh could be the steal of the draft. He will challenge for playing time immediately and probably be a big special teamer.
Overall it's way way wayyy too soon to judge this draft, but just going by the numbers (I forgot Shon Coleman who, despite not spelling his name right, will immediately fight for the start at right tackle), some reasonable predictions can be made:
Wide receiver and outside passrusher will have upgraded talent and actually too much depth.
Special teams might not be better, but shouldn't be worse.
Trade bait has been created.
Inside linebacker should be fine.
No opinion on the new cornerback. Just don't know. But he's 5'9" so we got more nickel corners than we know what to do with.
I forgot Wisconsin linebacker Joe Shobert (thanks Mary Kay)! Big huge omission on my part!
Joe is too small to be a great 3-4 outside linebacker, but looks just fine on the inside. He's called the best "block-shredder" in this class and is rated near the top as a passrusher.
While some regarded him as a special teamer and backup, that just doesn't make any sense.
Wow! Along with Scooby Wright, the Browns now have four really good players competing to start at two inside spots.
Something else that's very significant about Joe and Scooby: They're both very good blitzers. In fact every single defensive player taken by the Browns in this draft rate very high as passrushers.
That's Ray Horton. You never know where it's coming from. You just know it's coming.
Sorry I missed Joe. Backup my foot.
Saturday, April 30, 2016
Friday, April 29, 2016
So Far So Good. I Think.
As I've been saying all along, the Browns really need a blistering fast wide receiver more than a quarterback.
Ok ok I confess: I totally ignored Corey Coleman because he was only 5'11" and had an eleven percent drop rate (which still scares me).
Percy Harvin (per Mayock)? Wow! Possibly more in time: Antonio Brown is 5'10".
I've been pounding the table for Braxton Miller, but Coleman could be better! Same warts: Limited route tree, needs to refine outside game.
He's ready for the slot now, but they'll want him outside as soon as they can graduate him over there. They need to get Hawkins in the game, and threaten the outside.
This has Jackson's fingerprints on it. Coleman is a coverage dictator. I do wish he was taller, but his height is adequate to make bucket throws over his head deep practical, and he does get great separation.
He's not perfect. Big corners can reroute and jostle him to neutralize his speed advantage and maintain leverage on the outside. Because of this, they probably will need to start him out inside a lot, where that's a lot harder for defensive backs to do.
If he's like Harvin, Hue can move him around a lot and use him like he'd use Braxton Miller.
Coleman isn't just a vertical threat (although that flat out speed is critical to take the top off a defense), but lethal with the ball in his hands from anywhere on the field.
Once he's mastered all the routes and can defeat the press, he can be a consistent outside threat.
He's a great returner, too. He's an overall upgrade over Travis Benjamin.
Clearly, Hue Jackson isn't as impressed by Paxton Lynch as I am.
When the trade from eight to fifteen was announced, I thought Sashi got fleeced. I still think he should have got more in return.
Upon further reflection, that third rounder is at the top of the round, and the second rounder next season could be in the top twenty. It could have been better, but isn't too bad.
Tonight, Sashi has a great opportunity to trade that top pick in round two and get more good stuff. There are a bunch of really good players hanging around that he could still get after moving down.
I'm not unhappy at all that Joe Thomas wasn't traded. I love Big Joe and the fact that the Browns Quarterback won't get pulverized as badly as he would have been.
Joe will come in very handy with the younger offensive linemen, and his retention sends a positive message to the other guys.
...and now that I've said all that, stand by for a trade after all.
At any rate, wide receiver isn't fully resolved yet, but I'm as happy as everybody else that they added a big play guy with game-changing talent there.
And they still have TERRELL PRYOR dammit so this could get real scary for opposing defenses even as it is.
The remaining players include Myles Jack, Reggie Ragland, Noah Spence WHOA really? Spence? Holy crap! Kevin Dodd, Derrick Henry, Jason Spriggs...just some really good players.
Spence I can't believe. You want a real linebacker who can rush the quarterback? He could be the best one in this draft.
At any rate, you can see how they could still get a really good player after a trade down.
Ok ok I confess: I totally ignored Corey Coleman because he was only 5'11" and had an eleven percent drop rate (which still scares me).
Percy Harvin (per Mayock)? Wow! Possibly more in time: Antonio Brown is 5'10".
I've been pounding the table for Braxton Miller, but Coleman could be better! Same warts: Limited route tree, needs to refine outside game.
He's ready for the slot now, but they'll want him outside as soon as they can graduate him over there. They need to get Hawkins in the game, and threaten the outside.
This has Jackson's fingerprints on it. Coleman is a coverage dictator. I do wish he was taller, but his height is adequate to make bucket throws over his head deep practical, and he does get great separation.
He's not perfect. Big corners can reroute and jostle him to neutralize his speed advantage and maintain leverage on the outside. Because of this, they probably will need to start him out inside a lot, where that's a lot harder for defensive backs to do.
If he's like Harvin, Hue can move him around a lot and use him like he'd use Braxton Miller.
Coleman isn't just a vertical threat (although that flat out speed is critical to take the top off a defense), but lethal with the ball in his hands from anywhere on the field.
Once he's mastered all the routes and can defeat the press, he can be a consistent outside threat.
He's a great returner, too. He's an overall upgrade over Travis Benjamin.
Clearly, Hue Jackson isn't as impressed by Paxton Lynch as I am.
When the trade from eight to fifteen was announced, I thought Sashi got fleeced. I still think he should have got more in return.
Upon further reflection, that third rounder is at the top of the round, and the second rounder next season could be in the top twenty. It could have been better, but isn't too bad.
Tonight, Sashi has a great opportunity to trade that top pick in round two and get more good stuff. There are a bunch of really good players hanging around that he could still get after moving down.
I'm not unhappy at all that Joe Thomas wasn't traded. I love Big Joe and the fact that the Browns Quarterback won't get pulverized as badly as he would have been.
Joe will come in very handy with the younger offensive linemen, and his retention sends a positive message to the other guys.
...and now that I've said all that, stand by for a trade after all.
At any rate, wide receiver isn't fully resolved yet, but I'm as happy as everybody else that they added a big play guy with game-changing talent there.
And they still have TERRELL PRYOR dammit so this could get real scary for opposing defenses even as it is.
The remaining players include Myles Jack, Reggie Ragland, Noah Spence WHOA really? Spence? Holy crap! Kevin Dodd, Derrick Henry, Jason Spriggs...just some really good players.
Spence I can't believe. You want a real linebacker who can rush the quarterback? He could be the best one in this draft.
At any rate, you can see how they could still get a really good player after a trade down.
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Browns Draft Guessing
From an "analytics" perspective, there are tons of possibilities for Sashi and company tonight.
Hue Jackson does have a strong voice here, and a quarterback choice could make a big difference.
If he thinks Lynch is the guy, eight is NOT too high to pick him. As it is, he might not make it past the Niners at seven. If Hue wants him, other teams probably want him. If Sashi gets greedy and trades down, he's likely to get leapfrogged and lose Lynch.
I believe Joe Thomas will be traded. I think the Seahawks are the likeliest partners. Their first round pick and a third this year or second next year might be the compensation.
Here is a link to Gilbert Brandt's top 100. The Thomas trade would net them a bunch of these guys.
Wentz and Goff are seven and eight respectively, so their going higher won't help the Browns at number eight.
Christian Hackenberg is 86th. Braxton Miller is 75th. Noah Spence is 66th. This should illustrate how this order has little to do with where these guys will actually be drafted. It merely reflects Gil's (historically accurate) opinion of the best players in this draft.
Here is Gil's 2016 All Draft Team. His wide receivers are Corey Coleman and Josh Doctson. One of his linebackers is Darron Lee of Ohio State, who he ranks 15th. Lee could well be there in the second round.
Here is Brandt's seven players who he feels deserve more "buzz".
Number one is WR Tyler Boyd, who is 6'1".
Second is DB Sean Davis. Davis is good now, but is on the upswing.
Here's Mike Mayock's rankings by position.
Hackenberg is his fifth quarterback. Prescott isn't listed. Hackenberg could be a Jackson stealth target. I suppose it could be Cook, at number four, but I don't think so.
Mike ranks Treadwell number one among wide receivers...so I take back what I said about him. Mayock knows better. Not at eight though. Weak crop here. Not at eight. He ranks Micheal Thomas fifth.
Jerrell Adams is right behind Hunter Henry at tight end. That guy could be a lower third round steal. I found out he CAN block!
He sees Taylor Decker as the fourth best offensive tackle, then Ifedi. If the Browns trade Big Joe, they could well draft more than one of these guys. Only the top two are solid projections to left tackle. Conklin shows real promise there, but the other guys have question marks. He doesn't list Spriggs, but I'm sure he's sixth.
Ah! Mayock doesn't even list Noah Spence among his edge-rushers! I think he missed on this one! Spence rote havoc at the Senior Bowl!
This guy could slide and be a Browns steal.
I have no clue about what Hue thinks of Paxton Lynch. I just know that if he isn't a target, Sashi SHOULD trade down. He can only get one of Brandt's twelve elite players as it is. He could move four slots and not lose anything, technically.
Zeke Elliott is being talked about a lot, and no doubt this will any moment be called a "rumor".
Lynch can't be a "rumor", since the analytics guys would never conceivably consider drafting him so far above his projected position.
Nobody gets it, still. Those rules don't apply to quarterbacks, even for geeks. The calculation would be: Can we move down and not lose him, and if so, how far?"
I'd love to have Elliott, Duke, and Crow. Elliott can do everything both of them can do. He's built like Marshawn Lynch. He had great blocking at Ohio State, which makes some of us nervous. But for all we know, maybe he has a Beast Mode of his own he just hasn't had to wake up yet.
But (if it's not Lynch), they could pick up another second or third rounder and still get a Buckner, Conklin, Jack, or Hargreaves.
That second rounder could be a Nkemdiche, Spence, or Miller.
Or that third rounder could be a Jerrell Adams. Any combination of any two players above would help the Browns more than one player.
Imagine eight or even nine top one hundred players on the Browns. Top 100 players tend to start, or at least contribute a lot, as rookies.
The average any team gets are three. Round it off to three percent. The Browns could hog up eight or nine percent.
Naturally, sometimes you miss. Some personnel people are better than others. We don't know how good this front office is yet, but if we assume they are average, they should get two out of three right. Call it five.
There are twenty two starters. Five is around twenty three percent. That's a pretty good start on rebuilding.
Except the rebuilding has already started. Bitonio, Shelton, Campbell, Duke, Cooper, and Orchard are already here. That makes it eleven; fifty percent.
This would be the core of the new team. Now what about the two first round picks in 17 and two second rounders in 18?
This is why "five years" is laughable.
Of course, you need that quarterback...
Just read another horrible mock draft. Browns dump three draft picks to move up to three for a position player. Draft Connor Cook. A running back (because they desperately need a playmayger). Some linemen. No tackles.
Some really interesting receivers in the lower rounds, though. That saved him from failing. D.
Listening to Ross Tucker and Booger McFarland on NFL Radio now. Booger is wrong a lot but gets the best out of Ross.
Ross doesn't see Chip Kelly grabbing Lynch at seven. He feels Chip won't want a guy that needs a lot of work. The Niners aren't rebuilding to the extent the Browns are, and have some key pieces in place. It would also undermine his leverage with Kaepernick, who I believe he would like to retain.
I hope Ross and I are right. Rappaport said that the Saints might take Lynch. I know I would (if I really liked him) because Drew Brees is very, very old.
But I don't believe they'd jump the Browns for him. They just got a dangerous free agent tight end and a couple guys on defense. They can still score a ton of points. They need their draft ammo to have a shot at the Big Dance before Brees retires.
I'm leaning in Lynch's direction because of Hue Jackson. Filtering out the ten percent of what he said about franchise quarterbacks which flirted with reality, here's what I think he thinks:
I can find a way to use all that talent, even if he can't process information very fast. Even if he can't get to his third read half the time. I can get a smart center to help with protections. I can read option, bubble screen, roll out, and build a scary running game.
I think Hue thinks he can make ANY quarterback who is willing to be coached and to work at least a really good one, by any means necessary.
If I'm right about that, then he wants the guy with the most upside in this whole draft.
But then there's Hackenberg. I have no idea about that guy. For all I know, Hue likes him at least almost as much, and he would be much cheaper. Still think Lynch, though:
Steady improvement throughout his career. Largely self-taught. Freakish footwork, quickness, speed, and release for his height.
Here is my prediction: The Browns will draft Lynch, Hackenberg, Prescott, or some other quarterback at eight, or lower, on day one, two, or three. Also, if not, then they won't draft a quarterback. Take that to the bank.
Next, they will either draft somebody at eight, or else trade down.
Seriously though, Thomas to the Seahawks and a left tackle in the first or second. And if they do trade down, it means they're at least willing to risk Lynch, and the backup plan is more likely to be Hackenberg than anybody else.
In addition to the top 100 picks, there will be promising offensive linemen, interior defensive linemen, tweener receivers, and safeties through and beyond the fourth round.
This may have factored in to the Schwartz and Mack decisions.
Sashi will probably keep trying to exploit the hot seat bias, and get deferred picks a round higher when he can in trades...
And oh yeah: They are far more likely to auction the top second round pick than to trade up from it.
Now you know what to think, and why to think it. Glad to help out. Go Sashi Brown!
Hue Jackson does have a strong voice here, and a quarterback choice could make a big difference.
If he thinks Lynch is the guy, eight is NOT too high to pick him. As it is, he might not make it past the Niners at seven. If Hue wants him, other teams probably want him. If Sashi gets greedy and trades down, he's likely to get leapfrogged and lose Lynch.
I believe Joe Thomas will be traded. I think the Seahawks are the likeliest partners. Their first round pick and a third this year or second next year might be the compensation.
Here is a link to Gilbert Brandt's top 100. The Thomas trade would net them a bunch of these guys.
Wentz and Goff are seven and eight respectively, so their going higher won't help the Browns at number eight.
Christian Hackenberg is 86th. Braxton Miller is 75th. Noah Spence is 66th. This should illustrate how this order has little to do with where these guys will actually be drafted. It merely reflects Gil's (historically accurate) opinion of the best players in this draft.
Here is Gil's 2016 All Draft Team. His wide receivers are Corey Coleman and Josh Doctson. One of his linebackers is Darron Lee of Ohio State, who he ranks 15th. Lee could well be there in the second round.
Here is Brandt's seven players who he feels deserve more "buzz".
Number one is WR Tyler Boyd, who is 6'1".
Second is DB Sean Davis. Davis is good now, but is on the upswing.
Here's Mike Mayock's rankings by position.
Hackenberg is his fifth quarterback. Prescott isn't listed. Hackenberg could be a Jackson stealth target. I suppose it could be Cook, at number four, but I don't think so.
Mike ranks Treadwell number one among wide receivers...so I take back what I said about him. Mayock knows better. Not at eight though. Weak crop here. Not at eight. He ranks Micheal Thomas fifth.
Jerrell Adams is right behind Hunter Henry at tight end. That guy could be a lower third round steal. I found out he CAN block!
He sees Taylor Decker as the fourth best offensive tackle, then Ifedi. If the Browns trade Big Joe, they could well draft more than one of these guys. Only the top two are solid projections to left tackle. Conklin shows real promise there, but the other guys have question marks. He doesn't list Spriggs, but I'm sure he's sixth.
Ah! Mayock doesn't even list Noah Spence among his edge-rushers! I think he missed on this one! Spence rote havoc at the Senior Bowl!
This guy could slide and be a Browns steal.
I have no clue about what Hue thinks of Paxton Lynch. I just know that if he isn't a target, Sashi SHOULD trade down. He can only get one of Brandt's twelve elite players as it is. He could move four slots and not lose anything, technically.
Zeke Elliott is being talked about a lot, and no doubt this will any moment be called a "rumor".
Lynch can't be a "rumor", since the analytics guys would never conceivably consider drafting him so far above his projected position.
Nobody gets it, still. Those rules don't apply to quarterbacks, even for geeks. The calculation would be: Can we move down and not lose him, and if so, how far?"
I'd love to have Elliott, Duke, and Crow. Elliott can do everything both of them can do. He's built like Marshawn Lynch. He had great blocking at Ohio State, which makes some of us nervous. But for all we know, maybe he has a Beast Mode of his own he just hasn't had to wake up yet.
But (if it's not Lynch), they could pick up another second or third rounder and still get a Buckner, Conklin, Jack, or Hargreaves.
That second rounder could be a Nkemdiche, Spence, or Miller.
Or that third rounder could be a Jerrell Adams. Any combination of any two players above would help the Browns more than one player.
Imagine eight or even nine top one hundred players on the Browns. Top 100 players tend to start, or at least contribute a lot, as rookies.
The average any team gets are three. Round it off to three percent. The Browns could hog up eight or nine percent.
Naturally, sometimes you miss. Some personnel people are better than others. We don't know how good this front office is yet, but if we assume they are average, they should get two out of three right. Call it five.
There are twenty two starters. Five is around twenty three percent. That's a pretty good start on rebuilding.
Except the rebuilding has already started. Bitonio, Shelton, Campbell, Duke, Cooper, and Orchard are already here. That makes it eleven; fifty percent.
This would be the core of the new team. Now what about the two first round picks in 17 and two second rounders in 18?
This is why "five years" is laughable.
Of course, you need that quarterback...
Just read another horrible mock draft. Browns dump three draft picks to move up to three for a position player. Draft Connor Cook. A running back (because they desperately need a playmayger). Some linemen. No tackles.
Some really interesting receivers in the lower rounds, though. That saved him from failing. D.
Listening to Ross Tucker and Booger McFarland on NFL Radio now. Booger is wrong a lot but gets the best out of Ross.
Ross doesn't see Chip Kelly grabbing Lynch at seven. He feels Chip won't want a guy that needs a lot of work. The Niners aren't rebuilding to the extent the Browns are, and have some key pieces in place. It would also undermine his leverage with Kaepernick, who I believe he would like to retain.
I hope Ross and I are right. Rappaport said that the Saints might take Lynch. I know I would (if I really liked him) because Drew Brees is very, very old.
But I don't believe they'd jump the Browns for him. They just got a dangerous free agent tight end and a couple guys on defense. They can still score a ton of points. They need their draft ammo to have a shot at the Big Dance before Brees retires.
I'm leaning in Lynch's direction because of Hue Jackson. Filtering out the ten percent of what he said about franchise quarterbacks which flirted with reality, here's what I think he thinks:
I can find a way to use all that talent, even if he can't process information very fast. Even if he can't get to his third read half the time. I can get a smart center to help with protections. I can read option, bubble screen, roll out, and build a scary running game.
I think Hue thinks he can make ANY quarterback who is willing to be coached and to work at least a really good one, by any means necessary.
If I'm right about that, then he wants the guy with the most upside in this whole draft.
But then there's Hackenberg. I have no idea about that guy. For all I know, Hue likes him at least almost as much, and he would be much cheaper. Still think Lynch, though:
Steady improvement throughout his career. Largely self-taught. Freakish footwork, quickness, speed, and release for his height.
Here is my prediction: The Browns will draft Lynch, Hackenberg, Prescott, or some other quarterback at eight, or lower, on day one, two, or three. Also, if not, then they won't draft a quarterback. Take that to the bank.
Next, they will either draft somebody at eight, or else trade down.
Seriously though, Thomas to the Seahawks and a left tackle in the first or second. And if they do trade down, it means they're at least willing to risk Lynch, and the backup plan is more likely to be Hackenberg than anybody else.
In addition to the top 100 picks, there will be promising offensive linemen, interior defensive linemen, tweener receivers, and safeties through and beyond the fourth round.
This may have factored in to the Schwartz and Mack decisions.
Sashi will probably keep trying to exploit the hot seat bias, and get deferred picks a round higher when he can in trades...
And oh yeah: They are far more likely to auction the top second round pick than to trade up from it.
Now you know what to think, and why to think it. Glad to help out. Go Sashi Brown!
Sunday, April 24, 2016
Top Three Bad Browns Mock Draft
Here is another example of a bad Browns mock draft:
At eighth overall, Captain Obvious picks Treadwell because he's big. The guy's not a dumbass, since he actually mentioned Rodney Hartlinefield as the only starting caliber receiver, so I'm not going to pick on him too much. Except Hawkins is a starting slot guy too.
Treadwell will be unable to separate from NFL cornerbacks. On top of being slow, he lacks fast-twitch explosiveness.
As I myself have said about other big slow guys, some can make catches whether they're covered or not.
At this point, Treadwell isn't like that. He'll be able to use his length and bulk to make contested catches, but he won't go anywhere with it, NFL corners will get their hands on some, and rip others loose.
Treadwell can succeed in the NFL, but drafting him in the top half of the first round is sheer desperation.
Next, atop the second round, the guy drafts Connor Cook.
I was a big Cook fan myself until recently. I still feel he can be a good quarterback, but not a special one. His completion percentage is less than ideal, which bothers not just me, but Bill Parcells.
I can see why the writer took him here, but think Hue is more interested in sheer talent and upside than pro readiness, and think this guy didn't get that memo.
Here's another guy who thinks center Nick Martin will last into the third round. If he does, this pick is fine.
The writer does demonstrate dumbassitude here in saying that the Browns need help at every offensive line position. He's already carving Erving's headstone, and wants to replace two top ten guards too.
Lower in the fourth, he takes WR Rashard Higgins. I like this pick. I wish the guy wasn't so skinny, but he's really refined. He's not a burner, but runs precise routes and separates well.
Then a guard and a running back. Please stop.
Cornerback and inside linebacker ok fine.
Then a defensive lineman. A short one not suited for the left DE spot. Evidently this guy doesn't like Cooper or anybody else.
Small outside linebacker ok. Then he closes out with two big safeties. That's okay I guess, but clearly he also thinks Campbell sucks and sees safety as a position of need.
Look, the Browns don't need GUARDS, and the only defensive lineman they need is that long tall left DE to rotate with Bryant.
I like the two safeties, but safety may not be a need at all.
This guy's numbers are wrong too. He's got these guys clocking 40's well below their combine or Pro Day numbers.
I really like Tyvis Powell from Ohio State. At 6'3", 211, he DID clock a 4.44 40. This writer nabs him in the seventh round, and that would be outstanding.
Because of his height, he's not as "sudden" as you'd like, and can get beat deep by sudden moves. He can recover and close again, but not in time if the quarterback is on his toes.
But he's got great range and smarts. He played free for Ohio State, but can play strong too. Ray Horton knows how to use these guys to get the most out of them.
But the writer cheated. Powell is projected to go in the fifth round. I'd have to strongly consider him there, too.
This gets a D-plus. Treadwell at eight was literally horrific. I'm not sure Connor Cook will get better than Connor Shaw or Austin Davis: What's the point? They don't need inside defensive or offensive linemen (well possibly center not sure yet).
Despite the good safeties he dug up, that's not the need he seems to think it is either. Remember, there's a good chance Ray will experiment with Desir at safety too.
Treadwell. Jeez Tunsil, Jack, Elliott, Lynch could all be there and he takes Treadwell.
Make that a D-minus.
At eighth overall, Captain Obvious picks Treadwell because he's big. The guy's not a dumbass, since he actually mentioned Rodney Hartlinefield as the only starting caliber receiver, so I'm not going to pick on him too much. Except Hawkins is a starting slot guy too.
Treadwell will be unable to separate from NFL cornerbacks. On top of being slow, he lacks fast-twitch explosiveness.
As I myself have said about other big slow guys, some can make catches whether they're covered or not.
At this point, Treadwell isn't like that. He'll be able to use his length and bulk to make contested catches, but he won't go anywhere with it, NFL corners will get their hands on some, and rip others loose.
Treadwell can succeed in the NFL, but drafting him in the top half of the first round is sheer desperation.
Next, atop the second round, the guy drafts Connor Cook.
I was a big Cook fan myself until recently. I still feel he can be a good quarterback, but not a special one. His completion percentage is less than ideal, which bothers not just me, but Bill Parcells.
I can see why the writer took him here, but think Hue is more interested in sheer talent and upside than pro readiness, and think this guy didn't get that memo.
Here's another guy who thinks center Nick Martin will last into the third round. If he does, this pick is fine.
The writer does demonstrate dumbassitude here in saying that the Browns need help at every offensive line position. He's already carving Erving's headstone, and wants to replace two top ten guards too.
Lower in the fourth, he takes WR Rashard Higgins. I like this pick. I wish the guy wasn't so skinny, but he's really refined. He's not a burner, but runs precise routes and separates well.
Then a guard and a running back. Please stop.
Cornerback and inside linebacker ok fine.
Then a defensive lineman. A short one not suited for the left DE spot. Evidently this guy doesn't like Cooper or anybody else.
Small outside linebacker ok. Then he closes out with two big safeties. That's okay I guess, but clearly he also thinks Campbell sucks and sees safety as a position of need.
Look, the Browns don't need GUARDS, and the only defensive lineman they need is that long tall left DE to rotate with Bryant.
I like the two safeties, but safety may not be a need at all.
This guy's numbers are wrong too. He's got these guys clocking 40's well below their combine or Pro Day numbers.
I really like Tyvis Powell from Ohio State. At 6'3", 211, he DID clock a 4.44 40. This writer nabs him in the seventh round, and that would be outstanding.
Because of his height, he's not as "sudden" as you'd like, and can get beat deep by sudden moves. He can recover and close again, but not in time if the quarterback is on his toes.
But he's got great range and smarts. He played free for Ohio State, but can play strong too. Ray Horton knows how to use these guys to get the most out of them.
But the writer cheated. Powell is projected to go in the fifth round. I'd have to strongly consider him there, too.
This gets a D-plus. Treadwell at eight was literally horrific. I'm not sure Connor Cook will get better than Connor Shaw or Austin Davis: What's the point? They don't need inside defensive or offensive linemen (well possibly center not sure yet).
Despite the good safeties he dug up, that's not the need he seems to think it is either. Remember, there's a good chance Ray will experiment with Desir at safety too.
Treadwell. Jeez Tunsil, Jack, Elliott, Lynch could all be there and he takes Treadwell.
Make that a D-minus.
Browns Draft Bloggadocio
I agree with Terry Pluto about Myles Jack at number eight (if not Lynch or another trade-down).
A lot of fans still want Bosa, and seem oblivious to the fact that he doesn't project nearly as well to 3-4 outside linebacker as he does to 4-3 defensive end.
I don't hate Bosa, but not at eighth overall. Jack can rush the passer. And cover. And run sideline to sideline. And play multiple positions, including safety.
How can you call 6'1", 245 small, by the way? Jack lacks ideal size for a defensive end, and is marginally undersized for a 3-4 OLB, but is fine anywhere else.
The notion of trading up from 32 does not compute. It's true that first round picks come with a fifth year on their standardized contracts, which is an analytical kinda thing.
Teams usually do that to nab a quarterback, but usually not a position player who will demand less money on his second deal.
Conversely, the draft starts over on day two, and that pick is very valuable. Why would the Browns give up maybe a third round pick for one extra year on one player, instead of getting an additional pick or two to move down?
I also do believe that Seattle will be all over Joe Thomas, so the Browns will be near the bottom of the first round anyway.
I've read some pretty vitriolic, vicious, hysterical, ignorant, and irrational bashing of the Browns organization for this trade.
As you know, I didn't want them to do it, but after it was done and I got Sashi and Hue's (especially Hue's) take on it, I accepted his judgement.
This idiot thinks he knows more about quarterbacks than Hue Jackson. A man's got to know his limitations.
Another commentor reminded him that these guys aren't the old guys, and saying "same old poop" over and over is pretty dumb.
The idiot wanted to know where the sane guy had been for seventeen years. Do you understand what that has to do with it? I don't. For that matter, where was Jimmy Haslam for most of those seventeen years? What about Hue?
I'll bet this is the "Fire Haslam" Petition guy who calls into NFL Radio and makes us all look stupid.
Fortunately, these guys are outnumbered by the rest of us. I've been pleasantly surprised by the dearth of doom, gloom, and Chicken Littleshit I've heard and read.
Even the guys in NFL Radio (including Kirwan believe it or not) say that as long as Hue Jackson was on board with that trade, it was a great deal for the Browns.
And it sure was.
Hue Jackson is the key to this. His reputation preceded him, and his extreme confidence is infectious. You can't not like this guy!
This is why, unless you are idiotic enough to think you are a better judge of quarterbacks and Head Coach than Hue Jackson, you have to stand back, keep your mouth shut, and cross your fingers.
DeForest Buckner is another good pick high in the first round. He would pretty much take care of Horton's defensive line. Six foot seven. Horton's five techniques get sacks, and this one guy could make a BIG difference vs both the pass and the run.
Or Tunsil. Or the other top left tackle. I'm not picky.
Don't get excited about Treadwell. He can't separate. He's not as strong as he'd need to be to be a middling possession guy. Don't fall for it.
The Browns might need receivers, but the guy should at least give Brian Hartline a run for his money. (Remember him? Kinda tall? Played for Ohio State? Yeah, he's still here. Honest!)
A lot of fans still want Bosa, and seem oblivious to the fact that he doesn't project nearly as well to 3-4 outside linebacker as he does to 4-3 defensive end.
I don't hate Bosa, but not at eighth overall. Jack can rush the passer. And cover. And run sideline to sideline. And play multiple positions, including safety.
How can you call 6'1", 245 small, by the way? Jack lacks ideal size for a defensive end, and is marginally undersized for a 3-4 OLB, but is fine anywhere else.
The notion of trading up from 32 does not compute. It's true that first round picks come with a fifth year on their standardized contracts, which is an analytical kinda thing.
Teams usually do that to nab a quarterback, but usually not a position player who will demand less money on his second deal.
Conversely, the draft starts over on day two, and that pick is very valuable. Why would the Browns give up maybe a third round pick for one extra year on one player, instead of getting an additional pick or two to move down?
I also do believe that Seattle will be all over Joe Thomas, so the Browns will be near the bottom of the first round anyway.
I've read some pretty vitriolic, vicious, hysterical, ignorant, and irrational bashing of the Browns organization for this trade.
As you know, I didn't want them to do it, but after it was done and I got Sashi and Hue's (especially Hue's) take on it, I accepted his judgement.
This idiot thinks he knows more about quarterbacks than Hue Jackson. A man's got to know his limitations.
Another commentor reminded him that these guys aren't the old guys, and saying "same old poop" over and over is pretty dumb.
The idiot wanted to know where the sane guy had been for seventeen years. Do you understand what that has to do with it? I don't. For that matter, where was Jimmy Haslam for most of those seventeen years? What about Hue?
I'll bet this is the "Fire Haslam" Petition guy who calls into NFL Radio and makes us all look stupid.
Fortunately, these guys are outnumbered by the rest of us. I've been pleasantly surprised by the dearth of doom, gloom, and Chicken Littleshit I've heard and read.
Even the guys in NFL Radio (including Kirwan believe it or not) say that as long as Hue Jackson was on board with that trade, it was a great deal for the Browns.
And it sure was.
Hue Jackson is the key to this. His reputation preceded him, and his extreme confidence is infectious. You can't not like this guy!
This is why, unless you are idiotic enough to think you are a better judge of quarterbacks and Head Coach than Hue Jackson, you have to stand back, keep your mouth shut, and cross your fingers.
DeForest Buckner is another good pick high in the first round. He would pretty much take care of Horton's defensive line. Six foot seven. Horton's five techniques get sacks, and this one guy could make a BIG difference vs both the pass and the run.
Or Tunsil. Or the other top left tackle. I'm not picky.
Don't get excited about Treadwell. He can't separate. He's not as strong as he'd need to be to be a middling possession guy. Don't fall for it.
The Browns might need receivers, but the guy should at least give Brian Hartline a run for his money. (Remember him? Kinda tall? Played for Ohio State? Yeah, he's still here. Honest!)
Saturday, April 23, 2016
Cleveland Browns 2016 Draft Stuff
Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller oversaw their first NFL Radio Fan Draft yesterday. Frequent callers to their show from each city acted as GMs for their respective teams.
Goff went first, of course. Then the bonehead from the Rams picked Jalen Ramsey. That's right. The Rams just traded a boatload of picks for a cornerback.
The guy from Dallas regained consciousness in time to nab Wentz at four.
When it came to pick number eight, "Toddy O", a smart and thoughtful Browns fan that I'm proud to have represent us, listened to Pat Kirwan:
"Okay, now before you make this pick, you've got to ask yourself, what is the Browns number one need?"
"Quarterback", Todd replied.
"Okay. Go ahead and make your pick."
"Ezekial Elliot". That's right. Never mind Paxton Lynch. We'll just get a quarterback later.
We'll just go down to the magical orchard and pick a quarterback off the quarterback tree! Toddy O, yyyooouurrr fired!
And Terry Pluto demoted himself in my eyes (or maybe I'm just surpassing him). In advocating for Elliott, he said that running back was a huge need.
I'm so tired of the Crowell bashing! That dude is a stud when he gets just a little blocking, and when the defense can't key him to the weak side every damn time he takes a snap!
Last season I saw Green Bay pretty much shut Adrian Peterson down, and it wasn't the first time that happened. Why aren't Vikings fans trying to replace AP?
For crying out loud running backs don't play in a vacuum any more than quarterbacks do!
Yes, Zeke Elliott is a great player and better than Crowell ok? He's a ten. My point is, Crowell is a nine. What huge need?! The huge need is to scheme and block well enough that the ball carrier has to make ONE guy miss, or break ONE tackle. Not THREE AT ONCE what do you expect?!
But then, I'm not Hue Jackson. He knows quarterbacks. If he doesn't think Lynch is that special, who am I to disagree?
And if Lynch is gone, or Hue green lights whatever, Ezekial Elliott would be fine with me (Todd you're re-hired on a probationary basis).
As I learned from Pluto's (linked) article, Hue actually relies heavily on the run. His success with Dalton gets the big spotlight, but as Terry points out, that was helped massively by the fact that the Bengals did some serious damage on the ground.
Trying to stop that takes people out of coverage and makes blitzes much more dangerous.
Terry didn't mention that Giovani Bernard was heavily involved in the passing game as well. He and the tight end were Dalton's best friends vs pressure.
Terry's statistics covered handoffs only. If he'd looked up number of touches, he'd probably have found that running backs got the ball around 60% of the time!
Behind Crowell and Duke, there are journeymen, and I've stipulated that better depth would be nice.
But Terry, rare dumb statements aside, is terrific, and did open my eyes to the run-heavy nature of Jackson's ideal offense.
That's why I unfired Todd. IF IF IF HUE HUE HUE passes up Lynch at eight, adding Elliott would upgrade the bell cow spot, and also upgrade depth dramatically.
Elliott is much more refined and advanced than most college backs; ready to step right in on all three downs. Because of his height, he's a more quarterback-friendly receiver than the other guys, and he has the speed to line up in the slot and blow the doors off linebackers.
In an earlier blog, I suggested Henry in the second round. Zeke projects much better to the pros, because he's shifter and can avoid contact. Henry is a huge target for nasty hits, and his legs are the only way to take him down.
Henry will probably be the next Nigerian Nightmare in the NFL, but might have a short carreer.
Another guy in NFL Radio I now like and rely on as much as Ross Tucker is Maurice Jones-Drew. This guy was a great little running back who then became a fantasy football maven and is now one of the best damn analysts I've ever heard.
While Pat Kirwan is talking about Henry kicking ass (which he certainly WILL), Maurice talks about "surface area" and leverage. Far from bemoaning his own diminutive stature, Maurice feels lucky to have been built so low to the ground. He didn't get injured a lot, see?
Elliott is six feet tall, which is not great, but his elusiveness and instincts will protect him. He should be a durable workhorse. He's as close to a can't miss pick as you can find.
Hue could use him in every role. He can be Duke. He can be Crow. He's not as good as Gurley. He is better. Better than Lacy when Lacy isn't a tubb too. Not a better runner than AP, but a better receiver and maybe blocker; better in total.
But quarterback trumps every other position, so if Hue says draft Lynch instead, I don't want to hear any whining.
On that topic, and after reading this, I now think I was wrong not to ignore the talking heads telling us that Hue has to desperately need a franchise quarterback asap.
According to Hue, franchise quarterbacks are at least as much made as born.
How do you make them? Here's my version of the recipe:
Two parts blocking, two parts catching, and one part running. (Oh yeah and one part coaching and one part playcalling.)
Hue says he likes the guys he has. You will most likely call that Coacheze, but I think it's honesty. RG3 may or may not be great again, but McCown (if he's not traded-though I think he will be) proved last season that his Chicago stint was no fluke. Austin Davis was servicable (needs to eliminate the loud stinky brain-farts mostly).
I plead guilty of dissing Connor Shaw. There's a new Sherriff in town (Jackson), and Shaw (now a veteran with a smattering of experience), has a clean slate.
This guy is on the short side and doesn't have a strong arm, but that's all that's wrong with him. Jim Miller taught me that arm strength can be improved. Miller cites Tom Brady as exhibit A. Shaw should return with more grains of powder.
All this guy did in college was rewrite the NCAA record books. He's a dual threat as well, and very accurate. If you can call Joe Montana a franchise quarterback, put down your "career backup" rubber stamp for now.
In this article, which I link in because the writer really isn't a dumbass, there is a lot of dumbassitude. The Browns roster isn't a barren wasteland. I don't even care that Ross Tucker agrees with that. You're both wrong.
Certainly there are at least 25 other teams with better overall talent, but quit calling Shelton, Bitonio, Barnidge, Hawkins, Hartline, Haden, Kirksey, Crow, Duke, the Bryants, Solomon, Greco, Hughes, Davis, Kruger, Pasztor etc. bumbs.
And look up "talent" in your Funk & Wagnall. See the pictures of Gilbert, Mingo, and Pryor there?
I got more. Want some more? That's what I thought. Hope you noticed I left Thomas and McCown and the cornerbacks out btw.
Mingo wow!!! I've finally seen him and whoa nellie he's the freaking HULK man! That's amazing! Are you counting him out? With Ray Horton? Really? Why?
Take the excrement colored glasses off ok? Pro Football Focus rated him HIGH vs the run at 240 lbs and cited use in coverage and inability to bull rush (an assumption on my part) as an issue.
When I heard he was now 265 lbs I didn't believe it, but now I've seen him. If he's retained most of his speed and flexibility, he could be a HUGE sleeper right here on this very roster!
And Gilbert! ...okay no new news here and he was like Johnny except not drunk all the time BUT he's in his final contract year, people DO mature as they age, and if you tell an athletic freak dumbass "you cover that guy" and don't make him think, you've got a shot at creating a stud see?
Well maybe you don't, but Ray Horton was a safety and HE does, so stop the eulogy for now. Let's see okay? New coaches. New scheme. If he doesn't kick ass this year he's in for a massive pay cut if he can even hang around the league. That's called "motivation".
But I digress:
Gil Brandt (who is always right about these things) says that in this draft, twelve players are instant impact game-changers. (Paxton Lynch isn't one of these. He thinks Lynch could be awesome in time, but can't be certain of it, and he uses immediacy as a key criterion see?)
Per Gil, from thirteen to (I think) 48 are very good players who should start immediately, some of which could be great in time.
Brandt was actually an analytics pioneer in the NFL. They just hadn't invented the four-syllable name for it yet. But this is why he's almost always right.
Trust me: DePodesta knows this, and is cloning as much of Gilbert Brandt as he can. Meanwhile, he will lean on the meistro for his own plotting and scheming.
The Browns know they won't contend on 2016. They believe they can be "feisty", but accomplish nothing concrete. Several close games. Four wins, maybe, late in the season. (Shut up Black Cloud. I want 1-11 and a first overall pick but this crew is experienced and smart and can't avoid beating Baltimore and stuff and there IS talent here so deal with it).
"Immediacy" doesn't matter. It won't matter until they can contend for at least a wild card. Talent (potential) weighs heaviest here. All projects are welcome here in 2016. Talent trumps pro-readiness.
This is why if somebody else wants one of the top twelve (or Lynch IF IF IF Hue green lights this) badly enough to surrender enough picks, Sashi will move down some more.
Grossi will have a fit. Tough. The Browns can go to fourteen and still get an instant impact player (or possibly Lynch). Or they can move down further and pile up more/higher draft picks.
Teams and situations ignored, if they dropped four slots to twelve, and landed another second round pick this year, that would be mathematically perfect.
That's because they'd still get a Gil Brandt instastud plus another top 48 guy, see?
But if they moved down further, that could be okay too. They wouldn't get the immediate impact guy, but certainly add another second tier guy (who might be a Pro Bowler in 2017).
...and higher picks in the future.
Brandt and Kirwan taught me this: General Managers tend to be much freer with future draft picks than with current ones. This is because they get fired so often. In particular, general managers on the hot seat are fighting for their career lives, so they'll sacrifice a second round pick next year to keep a third round pick this year.
After all, the third round pick could save their job. If not, the missing second round pick next year will be the next guy's problem.
DePodesta probably knew this several years ago. Sashi did too. They'll exploit it to the max.
Don't throw the Hair Trigger Haslam crap at this. He SAID PUBLICLY "several years" didn't you hear that? This crew's first season is a freebie. Even 0-16 won't matter.
They can lose 12 or more games in year 2. Not until after their third year will Haslam even think about changes.
No doubt, Paul DePodesta said to Jimmy what I'm saying to you: We will imitate Bill Belichick.
Black Cloud, one of my occasional readers, will bring up Tom Brady and Bill's record here, but that's because he's a stalker. He'll be sending me Johnny Manziel clips until one of the three of us dies.
In reality, Bill, like me, has analytics ingrained into him. He trades seventh round picks for sixth round picks next year. He repeats this, year after year. After four years, that seventh is a third. I think he cashed one of them in in the second round, five years later. At any rate, he uses them when he spots a great deal.
This is part of analytics. Sashi Brown accepted a 2017 first rounder and a 2018 second rounder as part of this deal. "Pro ready", "immediate impact" will matter when a team contends. Only TALENT matters to a rebuilding team.
That, and more and higher draft picks, now or later.
Whatever Hue Jackson signs off on works for me, for now. He will need to prove he became a dumbass before I'll second guess him.
As for Sashi, I withdraw my earlier bashing: So far, so good. They've just got to hit on those picks.
Black Cloud predicts nothing but swings and misses. Because different people missed before.
Ever get hired by somebody, then bashed for stuff your predecessor did? That's not fair, or objective, or rational, is it?
I want Paxton Lynch. But I know what I don't know. So does Sashi Brown. In a couple years, I'll tell you how he did.
I believe Joe Thomas will go to Seattle for their first round pick, and more. Or possibly to Tennessee at 15, at the expense of minor Browns concessions or Josh McCown.
If nobody is willing to give up at least a fourth round pick for McCown, and Brown lets him go cheaper, I'll get an early start bashing Sashi Brown.
I can tell you now: ALL players are on the trading block. Like last season, when Ray Farmer accepted calls on Joe Thomas.
Farmer never tried to trade him. Do you comprehend this? And if you think Farmer nixing it because Denver wouldn't include a third round pick makes him a dumbass, YOU are a dumbass.
Anyway, my own Lynch obsession doesn't matter if Hue disagrees. Therefore, so far so good.
Goff went first, of course. Then the bonehead from the Rams picked Jalen Ramsey. That's right. The Rams just traded a boatload of picks for a cornerback.
The guy from Dallas regained consciousness in time to nab Wentz at four.
When it came to pick number eight, "Toddy O", a smart and thoughtful Browns fan that I'm proud to have represent us, listened to Pat Kirwan:
"Okay, now before you make this pick, you've got to ask yourself, what is the Browns number one need?"
"Quarterback", Todd replied.
"Okay. Go ahead and make your pick."
"Ezekial Elliot". That's right. Never mind Paxton Lynch. We'll just get a quarterback later.
We'll just go down to the magical orchard and pick a quarterback off the quarterback tree! Toddy O, yyyooouurrr fired!
And Terry Pluto demoted himself in my eyes (or maybe I'm just surpassing him). In advocating for Elliott, he said that running back was a huge need.
I'm so tired of the Crowell bashing! That dude is a stud when he gets just a little blocking, and when the defense can't key him to the weak side every damn time he takes a snap!
Last season I saw Green Bay pretty much shut Adrian Peterson down, and it wasn't the first time that happened. Why aren't Vikings fans trying to replace AP?
For crying out loud running backs don't play in a vacuum any more than quarterbacks do!
Yes, Zeke Elliott is a great player and better than Crowell ok? He's a ten. My point is, Crowell is a nine. What huge need?! The huge need is to scheme and block well enough that the ball carrier has to make ONE guy miss, or break ONE tackle. Not THREE AT ONCE what do you expect?!
But then, I'm not Hue Jackson. He knows quarterbacks. If he doesn't think Lynch is that special, who am I to disagree?
And if Lynch is gone, or Hue green lights whatever, Ezekial Elliott would be fine with me (Todd you're re-hired on a probationary basis).
As I learned from Pluto's (linked) article, Hue actually relies heavily on the run. His success with Dalton gets the big spotlight, but as Terry points out, that was helped massively by the fact that the Bengals did some serious damage on the ground.
Trying to stop that takes people out of coverage and makes blitzes much more dangerous.
Terry didn't mention that Giovani Bernard was heavily involved in the passing game as well. He and the tight end were Dalton's best friends vs pressure.
Terry's statistics covered handoffs only. If he'd looked up number of touches, he'd probably have found that running backs got the ball around 60% of the time!
Behind Crowell and Duke, there are journeymen, and I've stipulated that better depth would be nice.
But Terry, rare dumb statements aside, is terrific, and did open my eyes to the run-heavy nature of Jackson's ideal offense.
That's why I unfired Todd. IF IF IF HUE HUE HUE passes up Lynch at eight, adding Elliott would upgrade the bell cow spot, and also upgrade depth dramatically.
Elliott is much more refined and advanced than most college backs; ready to step right in on all three downs. Because of his height, he's a more quarterback-friendly receiver than the other guys, and he has the speed to line up in the slot and blow the doors off linebackers.
In an earlier blog, I suggested Henry in the second round. Zeke projects much better to the pros, because he's shifter and can avoid contact. Henry is a huge target for nasty hits, and his legs are the only way to take him down.
Henry will probably be the next Nigerian Nightmare in the NFL, but might have a short carreer.
Another guy in NFL Radio I now like and rely on as much as Ross Tucker is Maurice Jones-Drew. This guy was a great little running back who then became a fantasy football maven and is now one of the best damn analysts I've ever heard.
While Pat Kirwan is talking about Henry kicking ass (which he certainly WILL), Maurice talks about "surface area" and leverage. Far from bemoaning his own diminutive stature, Maurice feels lucky to have been built so low to the ground. He didn't get injured a lot, see?
Elliott is six feet tall, which is not great, but his elusiveness and instincts will protect him. He should be a durable workhorse. He's as close to a can't miss pick as you can find.
Hue could use him in every role. He can be Duke. He can be Crow. He's not as good as Gurley. He is better. Better than Lacy when Lacy isn't a tubb too. Not a better runner than AP, but a better receiver and maybe blocker; better in total.
But quarterback trumps every other position, so if Hue says draft Lynch instead, I don't want to hear any whining.
On that topic, and after reading this, I now think I was wrong not to ignore the talking heads telling us that Hue has to desperately need a franchise quarterback asap.
According to Hue, franchise quarterbacks are at least as much made as born.
How do you make them? Here's my version of the recipe:
Two parts blocking, two parts catching, and one part running. (Oh yeah and one part coaching and one part playcalling.)
Hue says he likes the guys he has. You will most likely call that Coacheze, but I think it's honesty. RG3 may or may not be great again, but McCown (if he's not traded-though I think he will be) proved last season that his Chicago stint was no fluke. Austin Davis was servicable (needs to eliminate the loud stinky brain-farts mostly).
I plead guilty of dissing Connor Shaw. There's a new Sherriff in town (Jackson), and Shaw (now a veteran with a smattering of experience), has a clean slate.
This guy is on the short side and doesn't have a strong arm, but that's all that's wrong with him. Jim Miller taught me that arm strength can be improved. Miller cites Tom Brady as exhibit A. Shaw should return with more grains of powder.
All this guy did in college was rewrite the NCAA record books. He's a dual threat as well, and very accurate. If you can call Joe Montana a franchise quarterback, put down your "career backup" rubber stamp for now.
In this article, which I link in because the writer really isn't a dumbass, there is a lot of dumbassitude. The Browns roster isn't a barren wasteland. I don't even care that Ross Tucker agrees with that. You're both wrong.
Certainly there are at least 25 other teams with better overall talent, but quit calling Shelton, Bitonio, Barnidge, Hawkins, Hartline, Haden, Kirksey, Crow, Duke, the Bryants, Solomon, Greco, Hughes, Davis, Kruger, Pasztor etc. bumbs.
And look up "talent" in your Funk & Wagnall. See the pictures of Gilbert, Mingo, and Pryor there?
I got more. Want some more? That's what I thought. Hope you noticed I left Thomas and McCown and the cornerbacks out btw.
Mingo wow!!! I've finally seen him and whoa nellie he's the freaking HULK man! That's amazing! Are you counting him out? With Ray Horton? Really? Why?
Take the excrement colored glasses off ok? Pro Football Focus rated him HIGH vs the run at 240 lbs and cited use in coverage and inability to bull rush (an assumption on my part) as an issue.
When I heard he was now 265 lbs I didn't believe it, but now I've seen him. If he's retained most of his speed and flexibility, he could be a HUGE sleeper right here on this very roster!
And Gilbert! ...okay no new news here and he was like Johnny except not drunk all the time BUT he's in his final contract year, people DO mature as they age, and if you tell an athletic freak dumbass "you cover that guy" and don't make him think, you've got a shot at creating a stud see?
Well maybe you don't, but Ray Horton was a safety and HE does, so stop the eulogy for now. Let's see okay? New coaches. New scheme. If he doesn't kick ass this year he's in for a massive pay cut if he can even hang around the league. That's called "motivation".
But I digress:
Gil Brandt (who is always right about these things) says that in this draft, twelve players are instant impact game-changers. (Paxton Lynch isn't one of these. He thinks Lynch could be awesome in time, but can't be certain of it, and he uses immediacy as a key criterion see?)
Per Gil, from thirteen to (I think) 48 are very good players who should start immediately, some of which could be great in time.
Brandt was actually an analytics pioneer in the NFL. They just hadn't invented the four-syllable name for it yet. But this is why he's almost always right.
Trust me: DePodesta knows this, and is cloning as much of Gilbert Brandt as he can. Meanwhile, he will lean on the meistro for his own plotting and scheming.
The Browns know they won't contend on 2016. They believe they can be "feisty", but accomplish nothing concrete. Several close games. Four wins, maybe, late in the season. (Shut up Black Cloud. I want 1-11 and a first overall pick but this crew is experienced and smart and can't avoid beating Baltimore and stuff and there IS talent here so deal with it).
"Immediacy" doesn't matter. It won't matter until they can contend for at least a wild card. Talent (potential) weighs heaviest here. All projects are welcome here in 2016. Talent trumps pro-readiness.
This is why if somebody else wants one of the top twelve (or Lynch IF IF IF Hue green lights this) badly enough to surrender enough picks, Sashi will move down some more.
Grossi will have a fit. Tough. The Browns can go to fourteen and still get an instant impact player (or possibly Lynch). Or they can move down further and pile up more/higher draft picks.
Teams and situations ignored, if they dropped four slots to twelve, and landed another second round pick this year, that would be mathematically perfect.
That's because they'd still get a Gil Brandt instastud plus another top 48 guy, see?
But if they moved down further, that could be okay too. They wouldn't get the immediate impact guy, but certainly add another second tier guy (who might be a Pro Bowler in 2017).
...and higher picks in the future.
Brandt and Kirwan taught me this: General Managers tend to be much freer with future draft picks than with current ones. This is because they get fired so often. In particular, general managers on the hot seat are fighting for their career lives, so they'll sacrifice a second round pick next year to keep a third round pick this year.
After all, the third round pick could save their job. If not, the missing second round pick next year will be the next guy's problem.
DePodesta probably knew this several years ago. Sashi did too. They'll exploit it to the max.
Don't throw the Hair Trigger Haslam crap at this. He SAID PUBLICLY "several years" didn't you hear that? This crew's first season is a freebie. Even 0-16 won't matter.
They can lose 12 or more games in year 2. Not until after their third year will Haslam even think about changes.
No doubt, Paul DePodesta said to Jimmy what I'm saying to you: We will imitate Bill Belichick.
Black Cloud, one of my occasional readers, will bring up Tom Brady and Bill's record here, but that's because he's a stalker. He'll be sending me Johnny Manziel clips until one of the three of us dies.
In reality, Bill, like me, has analytics ingrained into him. He trades seventh round picks for sixth round picks next year. He repeats this, year after year. After four years, that seventh is a third. I think he cashed one of them in in the second round, five years later. At any rate, he uses them when he spots a great deal.
This is part of analytics. Sashi Brown accepted a 2017 first rounder and a 2018 second rounder as part of this deal. "Pro ready", "immediate impact" will matter when a team contends. Only TALENT matters to a rebuilding team.
That, and more and higher draft picks, now or later.
Whatever Hue Jackson signs off on works for me, for now. He will need to prove he became a dumbass before I'll second guess him.
As for Sashi, I withdraw my earlier bashing: So far, so good. They've just got to hit on those picks.
Black Cloud predicts nothing but swings and misses. Because different people missed before.
Ever get hired by somebody, then bashed for stuff your predecessor did? That's not fair, or objective, or rational, is it?
I want Paxton Lynch. But I know what I don't know. So does Sashi Brown. In a couple years, I'll tell you how he did.
I believe Joe Thomas will go to Seattle for their first round pick, and more. Or possibly to Tennessee at 15, at the expense of minor Browns concessions or Josh McCown.
If nobody is willing to give up at least a fourth round pick for McCown, and Brown lets him go cheaper, I'll get an early start bashing Sashi Brown.
I can tell you now: ALL players are on the trading block. Like last season, when Ray Farmer accepted calls on Joe Thomas.
Farmer never tried to trade him. Do you comprehend this? And if you think Farmer nixing it because Denver wouldn't include a third round pick makes him a dumbass, YOU are a dumbass.
Anyway, my own Lynch obsession doesn't matter if Hue disagrees. Therefore, so far so good.
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