I rely on Steve a lot. If he's opinionated, he hides it extremely well, and seems to just go by what he sees daily and weekly.
Right now, Steve is one of the few reporters allowed to watch some of the practices (I wonder if they even let Tony Grossi hang around).
As I've mentioned, I can't trust Mary Kay Cabbott, who tends to assume, and is reluctant to adjust her analyses based on new information, but I digress: Steve Patsko is on my "A-list" as a source:
As Steve reports, the 2019 Vikings Offense under Stefanski ran 11 personnel less than 20% of the time, and the rest of the time fielded a second Tight End or Running Back.
Steve also points out that Stefanski himself said that the 2020 Browns offense wouldn't neccessarily mirror the 2019 Vikings.
My readers knew this before Comrade Stefanski was hired. It was obvious to me, and I had to point it out, as everybody else was talking dedicated fullbacks and 3 Tight Ends etc. but I digress again:
The dry statistics Patsko cites from the 2019 Vikings only tell part of that story, and the Browns' unique roster in 2020 add a lot to it that Steve didn't consider:
(Redundancy Alert) Kareem Hunt (the second Running Back) can line up anywhere Ebineezer Bell lines up, including in the slot or wide.
So 21 personnel can easily turn into a 3-wide spread (and obviously will), often...and (for the 30th or so time sorry), Kareem Hunt is the third WR by default.
I'm not bashing Patsko here. He was just trying to figure out the WR pecking order here, and project keepers, without much regard for X's and O's.
Steve probably correctly estimated 5 WRs on the final roster (and factored Hunt in without mentioning him).
Anyhow, Steve's observations didn't line up with my own projections, therefore he is wrong.
NAH! Microbe JoJo Natson (per Steve) has been THE top WR not named Beckham or Landry based on his usage on the 1st and 2nd team offense.
Mary Kay probably ignored this, but I can't. A real analyst expects to be wrong sometimes, and indeed looks forward to it, as his (or her sigh) job is to be as accurate as possible on an ongoing basis (but I digress again):
Anyway it looks like I was wrong about Higgins or Hodge or Ratley or even rookie Peoples-Jones (ie big tall guys) being ahead of (kick/punt return specialist) JoJo Natson.
Regardless of how this depth chart shakes out, Comrade Stefanski is obviously
Steve makes sure to cite the WR's Coach's praise of Rashard Higgins (which was profuse), but...
Revised Analysis (including the signing of 6'3" 203 lb undrafted Bengals WR Damion Willis):
Comrade Stefanski intends to lean hard on Comrade Mayfield's judgement and accuracy, and is looking for big plays out of all of his true WRs.
I was onto this in my last couple posts: this is looking like "Air Coryall" a lot more than Bill Walsh's 49ers West Coast, which succeeded and modified it.
Dan Fouts had a good arm and was extra-smart and accurate, but not big, strong, or athletic.
He had Hall of Famer in (I assume) Kellen Winslow at Tight End, and Chuck Muncie at RB. He had Charlie Joiner and Wes Chandler at WR in 1983.
RB Chuck Muncie averaged less than 4 ypc, but caught 42 passes for 396 yards, and was "money" (12 TDs) in the red zone.
Eric Sievers was the second Tight End in that "12" offense, and had 33 catches for 452 yards.
Winslow was (by far) the leading receiver with 88 catches for 1172 yards. Between Sievers and Winslow, and Muncie, Tight Ends and Running Backs dominated the receiving stats.
Niether WR averaged over 15 yards per-catch, but both Tight Ends averaged over 11 yards per catch, and Muncie over 9.
In reality, Dan Fouts never had a "home run hitter" or a very strong running game (or a good defense, by the way), but this prolific passing offense was called "Air Coryall".
The key was Dan Fouts, see? Check the stats from the '83 team. Dan Fouts spread the ball roughly evenly among all his receivers, except for Kellen Winslow (Sr), who he favored somewhat---duh.
I personally remember that team, but was surprised to discover how dumb I was back then, as I thought those Chargers were 3-wide and Fouts was a mad bomber.
- 2 Tight Ends? Really? I never knew that Eric Sievers existed until I checked these stats, but this guy beat Winslow by 2-plus YPC!
But I digress again:
Comrade Stefanski with the 2020 Browns seems more Coryall than Walsh so far:
The two WRs will probably "go deep" most of the time (like Chandler and Joiner did) to back the corners off and threaten the Deep Safety (instead of breaking in underneath for easy "dink" catches)...
That principle is the same today as it was in 1983...except Dan Fouts didn't have an OBJ, and (I gotta say) wasn't as boldly bloodthirsty as Comrade Mayfield is (no knock on Dan, who is obviously a vastly superior human being) but I digress again:
Mayfield is like Dan Fouts, except more athletic (and bloodthirsty, and clueless, and spineless...)
The 2020 Browns' offense is superior to the 1983 Chargers' offense, except at Tight End.
OBJ is a home-run hitter. Kareem Hunt is Chuck Muncie on steroids (and Nick Chubb is here too!)
Fouts might have had better Tight Ends overall, but not by much...
Bryant Harrison has been kicking ass (I am surprised! I think he's lost at least 12 lbs by the way; he's a for real pass-catching TE, and my man Njoku is in trouble for sure).
I've been defending Njoku, but Harrison (and Pharoah Brown, for that matter) seem to be ahead of him...
Oops more digression: anyway Fouts had Winslow but didn't have OBJ, Chubb, or Hunt either so............
The Offense is ok so far, but OMFG Mack Wilson out for at least half a season, Delpit for the whole season, Williams, Mitchell, wtf!?!
Kevin Johnson is back from injury, and Sendejo/Joseph are ok for now, but this is right out of a horror novel (mainly at Cornerback).
The Browns are ok at Safety still (with Redwine and Rodney Hasselfield), but man corners don't grow on trees.
As always, I look at the bright side, and like that Donnie Lewis et al are getting more reps, but my battery is running out so bye
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