Sunday, August 30, 2020

Offense Looks Better, Dumbass Analysis and Stuff

Finally, the Offense is looking crisp, after having been punked by the Defense since day one.

With 2 weeks to go until the opener vs the Ravens, the new unit really needs to get it together.

As I've posted, the biggest surprise here is rookie TE Harrison Bryant, who has been playing like a veteran.

On the OLine, two rookies are practicing with the first unit, as well, and that hasn't been nearly as seamless (if you're counting, that's three rookies with the ones).

The Browns hope to have JC Tretter back at center by that first game, but most real experts aren't optimistic about that, given the average recovery time for miniscus surgery (and they should not let him rush it).

Sheldon Richardson, Myles Garrett, et al are "schooling" Jedrick Wills, but that includes helping to coach him ("Here's what you did wrong.  This is what I saw.  You tend to etc.")

Not all players will take the time to do this with the kid they practice against, and it will help Wills a lot.

Comrade Stefanski is adament that Wills is the starting Left Tackle period, and that's smart.  He needs every rep he can get, as he switches sides and tries to learn to bat left-handed.

Boxing is a better analogy.  Try reversing your stance.  You can still jab, but that's all.  You're all uncoordinated with your recessive hand, and---well if you have any imagination at all, you get this.

That other guy is coming at you hard, and you're signalling punches and missing and can't keep your feet under you or your hands up, see?

The only answer is repetition.  Wills has a couple weeks to get up for the Ravens.

Fortunately, they don't have a Myles Garrett, and Wills has plenty of time to study who he will face.

Also fortunately, he won't be in as many true pass-sets as he has been in camp.

Zone blocking actually doesn't take much practice, and I'm pretty sure that the Offense has been working more on the more conventional passing game (you can't go all 
Play-action, and 3rd and longs are going to happen).

Bill Callahan seems very high on Nick Harris, who replaced Tretter at Center and never let go.

I was surprised by that myself, as I expected the 5th round pick not to be ready for primetime yet, and get replaced by one of two other veterans.

I should have seen this coming: Nick Harris fell to the 5th round only because he's only 6'1", and projects mainly as a zone-blocker.

He was very experienced, is a superior athlete, and is super-smart.  Nick can't get any taller, but was otherwise ready to start in the NFL (good JOB, Andrew Berry!!!)

It's quite possible that Harris will be starting and making the line-calls vs the Ravens.

It's scary, since the Ravens still to this day run their unique hybrid front 7 defense...

Look at their defensive Depth Chart.  What tf is that?

I won't dig into that right now, but they've got a "joker" and a real Nose Tackle who will try to pick Harris up and throw him at Mayfield (or just turn him into a speed bump).

...I can't wait.  I want to see the lowly young Browns vs maybe the best veteran team in the NFL.  (Go ahead and list the teams you think are better.............?)

I can't find the Cory Kinnon article defending David Njoku, but it was awesome.  I'm embarrassed by this article, since I was jumping overboard off the USS Njoku myself until I read it.

Happily, I already told you guys that Njoku's drops have been massively overinflated, but I didn't know that he's statistically comparable to the best Tight Ends in the NFL in that PFF category.

Forget I said they "might have to accept" a 3rd-rounder at best for David Njoku...

But that's another problem: Harrison Bryant is kicking ass, and (in reality) you don't use 3 Tight Ends very often with Kareem Hunt on your roster.

When in doubt, change the subject:

Matthew McFatridge lists 3 players that he thinks could be traded before week 1.

David Njoku naturally tops his list.

Well, this Malik Hooker for Njoku idea is interesting.  That could be even up, since Hooker didn't get his 5th year option, while Njoku did (the Browns would need to pay the man in 2021, while the Colts would have Njoku locked down cheap.)

The Colts have cap issues, so the leverage favors the Browns here.  Malik Hooker would look mighty fine in center field in 2020, and imagine Hooker/Delpit in 2021!

Anyway Matt then echoed a bunch of idiots by listing CB Rodney Mitchellfield as his next trade prospect.  Idocracy again:

Mitchell is the nominal starter in Greedy Williams' place, and who knows when Williams or Kevin Johnson will return?

Mitchell is CHEAP, because he could start for most of the teams in the NFL! He shuts down WRs and gets turnovers why are you trying to get rid of oohhmmmm....ohhhmmm...

Then Matt lists Rashard Higgins.  Good come-back! That one makes sense, as you can see in my last post (the Browns will have to cut some good WRs, and all THREE of Higgins' main competitors are key Special Teamers).

They probably couldn't get a lot for Rashard.  The NFL is eyeball-deep in Wide Receivers right now, and Higgins (thanks to Dorsey Freddie) never got a fair shot to prove himself.

That's so stupid sad, but I digress:

How about Kareem Hunt, Matt?

Redundancy Alert: I'm fuzzy on deadlines etc., but as far as I know, any NFL team can make Hunt an offer, and if the Browns don't match it, that team has to cough up it's 2nd round pick.

If it's not legally too late for such an offer, lots of teams will check Hunt out.

Of course, Hunt will want top RB money, and at this point, his off the field stuff undermines that.  He probably plans to play out 2020 with Comrades Stefanski and Mayfield and pile up like 60 catches and 1300 all-purpose yards and average 5 YPC and rent an extra-big Brinks truck in 2021.

If I was a GM for some other team, I'd be talking to Hunt's agent right now.  What if he gets hurt?  I'm offering top 5 money, plus performance incentives, with up-front guarantees.

I want him now.

I must be missing something here.  An expired deadline or something.

Speak of the devil: David Njoku came back strong at the first practice at First Energy Stadium (including a 66-yard catch-and-run from Keenum).

I don't think Harrison Bryant (or Austin Hooper) can make big plays like that.

This Porter Gustin guy got 2 "sacks" from "the left side" in Myles Garrett's absence.  I deduce that this reporter was saying that the Left Tackle was who got burned.

Honestly, some of these clowns call Myles Garrett a "left" Defensive End because he opposes the Left Tackle jeez...

Sounds like Wills is still getting punked, which is bad.  But Gustin is punking him, which is great.

I'm so glad that Andrew Berry (and Paul DePodesta) don't care which players came from where, as Gustin was a Dorsey signing.

Remember when John Dorsey first came to Cleveland, and said that most of the players he had inheritted weren't "real football players"?

He immediately flushed Ogbah and Nassib down the terlet, then traded Zeitler and Peppers in a literal purge of everybody he hadn't acquired.

Njoku and Higgins in the "Dog House" came next...I'm not sure I've ever seen an ego like that in the NFL...

Anyway Berry and DePodesta ignore who gets the "credit" for acquiring players, and don't purge guys.

Porter Gustin is still here because he is earning it.  Period.  It doesn't bother DePoBerry that John Dorsey will "get credit" for him.

Anyway I'm pretty excited about this Gustin guy as (at least) a rotational passrusher.  It's quite possible that there's a quality EDGE depth behind Garrett/Vernon/Clayborn (and, actually, Sheldon Richardson too!)

Chad Porto says the Browns "blew" a trade for Ngakoue.

Chad's very smart, but finds mathematics irritating, so he ignores it.

Ngakoue would have cost only merely a second round pick and 20 mil-plus a year or so.

No, Chad, the Browns can't conjure up money to retain their top players.  If you have 50 mil and spend 20 mil of it, you have 30 mil left, ok?  

And you don't ride contracts into their final seasons---jeez don't get me started...

Chad only uses half his brain so far, so his potential is astronomical, but...

...and everybody except Garrett is a bumb?  

Nevermind:  When exactly did all you spoiled brats decide to ah nevermind okbye

   
























Saturday, August 29, 2020

Social Insanity, Spoiled Brats, Tantrums, Delusions, Jedrick Wills, and the Cleveland Browns

I'm listening to Sheldrick Redwine's story of oppression, wiping the tears away.

Ok you people need to deal with these facts:

1: Black males commit a disproportionate percentage of violent crimes.  That is a fact.  It's not racist.  It's the truth.

2: Blacks are equally disproportianately represented in law enforcement, and in urban governments (mayors, commissioners etc.)

3: The Police are protecting black people, mostly, in these urban environments.  

Sheldrick, when you have dreds and tats, well--if you're a white (or black) cop, wouldn't you be a mentally impaired PC drone NOT to take a second look at that "profile", which screams "gangster!?!"

4: Your "dialog" is one-sided.  All I hear is YOU complaining about being pulled over or questioned.  I would like to hear the COPS included in this "dialog" of yours.

5: Talk to your elders, Sheldrick.  They were oppressed.  YOU never were.  Don't act like getting pulled over a little more often than people who don't look like gangsters, or people looking at you, is "oppression".

Put on your big boy pants.  Who is mass-murdering black babies and women in Chicago?  Guys who look like YOU!  Who are those cops trying to protect?  Your family, dammit!

6: You are a spoiled brat, a sheep, a drone, and a useful idiot.  

No offense.  I was a useful idiot myself in my punkdom.  Yeah I was around 5 years younger than you, but you know...worked for a living, so...

Racism will never be totally eliminated, but this "systemic" racism is utter bullshit, and you're a TOOL for complaining about how hard it is to be a black guy in this horribly oppressive country...

My God...in the words of Mike Ditka: Go somewhere else!

All of you spoiled brats need to grow up...I bet I could get Myles Garrett to listen...

Not Comrade Stefanski, though...

Anyway, it's a tad early to flush rookie LT Jedrick Wills down the terlet, at least in Bill Callahan's opinion.

Most of us 3-digit IQ types expected Wills' transition to be rocky.  Switching from right to left is, as I've posted extensively, a huge challenge for an Offensive Tackle.

Imagine learning to bat left-handed (assuming you're naturally correct-handed).

That's overstating it, but not by much.

Add to that, Wills is getting Myles Garrett, Olivier Vernon, etc in his face.

I remember Joe Thomas vs the rookie Myles Garrett.  Then came the real games, and Garrett instantly kicked ass.

Iron sharpens iron.  Jedrick Wills is losing more than he's winning so far (big surprise), but he's adapting to elite edge-players, in addition to switching sides.

I can channel Chad Porto here, as he cites a long list of high first round Left Tackle busts; I can hear the alarms sounding.  And it is possible that Jedrick Wills will end up at Right Tackle or Guard.

But it's unlikely:

Advanced analytics has changed things (for those GMs who are willing to accept those numbers):

Jedrick Wills was the blind-side Tackle because he was the best pass-blocker (err...arguably in College Football).

This is what matters.

Axe Bill Callahan (pfft! what does he know?)

Idiots anyway, Jedrick Wills might have a rocky start, but still projects to be a top 10 Left Tackle in 2020.

Sigh here we go again:

As Callahan revealed, what the Browns have been doing in camp so far has (as I stated in my last post blush-blush) more to do with challenging individual players than it does with the schemes we'll see when it counts.

I haven't read the article about the 3rd WR competition being "wide open", for reasons my regular readers already know:

Kareem Hunt is the third WR.

For that matter, a Tight End will sometimes be the 3rd or 4th "wide receiver", so all these articles are pretty clueless.

Sigh why on Earth would any Head Coach park Kareem Hunt on the bench!?!  He's a proven slot receiver (not like Edelman, but reliable as hell)...

JEEZ why do I have to keep redundancationalizing this? You deploy your best players as often as possible!

This "third Wide Receiver" crap is a joke for anybody who comprehends football (Idiocracy rears it's clueless head again! Hear it roar: "DOYEEEE!")

...is any of this sinking in yet?  You're wearing a mask, right?  In your car?  In the forest?

But I digress: the Browns will carry at least 5 WRs, and maybe 6, because Hodge is a Special Teams stud, Peoples-Jones can't be exposed to waivers (somebody would nab him), and...

Well I predict that Damion Ratley is a GMF, and Rashard Higgins might join him.  It's a tough call: 

If it's 5 WRs (which it would be sans Special Teams considerations), then Higgins is third...

Oh dammit I have no idea!  I love Higgins, but Hodge has caught up to him and is a "teams" stud, Peoples-Jones can't survive waivers (and is a lethal returner himself), and JoJo Natson has been kicking ass at receiver as well as as a returner...

I color Damion Ratley a GMF for sure...

What do YOU think?  After OBJ and Landry (if you stipulate that the Practice Squad won't work for Peoples-Jones), and we have 2 WR slots remaining, who gets them?

You can only keep 2 from amongt Hodge, Higgins, Natson...

I think Higgins might be the odd man out here.

If you're calling me names and sentencing me to eternal damnation and stuff, I really want to play high stakes poker with you.

Deal with it.  I was a huge David Njoku fan (as my regulars know), but now I'm a bigger Harrison Bryant fan.  And I like Hodge more than Higgins, for that matter.

...ok I'm sorry.  Anybody who manages to read this Blog more than once is rational, and I keep insulting your intelligence (well ok see I'm not aiming at YOU (Bub, for instance), and expect you to know that, and kinda laugh as you look over my shoulder).

I miss you, Bub.  Nobody even argues with me anymore.

It's very hard to always be right.  It's lonely at the top.  Who can disagree with you when you're never wrong?

I am oppressed by dumb people.  Unlike the comrades, however, I (as a top 1% genius blush-blush) can't get anybody to loot and burn and assault and kill on my behalf...

Not that I would want them to (duh).

...Sorry I was trying to be satirical, but can't even pretend to be that stupid.

Okbye








Friday, August 28, 2020

Good, Bad, and Idiotic Browns' Analysis, and What the Coaches Are Really Up To and Stuff

Nick Dudukovich is another of my favorite writers.  He's more opinionated than Patsko, and less opinionated than Porto (he's just right).

I kid, of course.  (Who am I to call anybody else opinionated?)

Nick lists five players who have stood out in camp so far (then there's a link to an earlier article on four whose stocks are down). He includes 3 "honorable mentions", too.

Rookie TE Harrison Bryant is first.  I figured this guy would become pretty good in time myself, but this kid has kicked ass from the very start!

I guess Njoku has a sore wrist now (could explain the dropsies possibly), but Bryant has kinda taken over that number two slot, and (barring injury) is unlikely to give it up.

I noticed that Bryant's gut has disappeared, and he looks leaner than he did at the combine or on film.

I frankly don't buy the nitpicky critiques of the converted star Left Tackle's blocking.  I haven't seen the iso tapes these experts have, but come on, man: Left Tackles block full time, ok?

Anyway, the streamlined Harrison Bryant (by the way I'm guessing he's under 240 lbs now) looks much faster and more explosive than most of us expected (like a taller, more durable Seth DeValve, in fact). Andrew Berry scored big with this guy!

Njoku may still be a better athlete, but reliability is more important, and Bryant is a black hole type receiver.  David Njoku can't overtake him.

...and everybody knows it, so Berry would be lucky to get a third round pick for him but I digress:

Jojo Natson.  Like Patsko wrote last week, this microbe has been the top slot guy in 3-wides, and has been getting open and making catches.

Nick is sharp:  He suggests that in view of this Covid 19 bullshit, Comrade Stefanski might be tuning up his backups, which makes sense: Higgins and Hodge are veterans, already familiar to Comrade Mayfield.

Natson is first and foremost a returner, but it will be great to know that he can be an effective WR if the next hand grenade rolls into the WR room (jeez look at what's left of the defensive back seven!  The prognosis on Greedy Williams isn't promising, by the way holy crap!)

Next is Austin Hooper.  No surprises here--especially after he went way out of his way to practice with Comrade Mayfield in the offseason, and came to the Browns with a catch-rate of over 97%.

Dudokovich surprised me with DE Porter Gustin, who I have failed to notice at all.

Gustin is a "bodybuilder" (like Clay Matthews Jr), and was projected by most scouts as a Linebacker in the NFL, as he was 6'4", 255 lbs coming out of college.

He was injured a lot, which hurt his stock, and failed a test (adderol-performance enhancing).  Then there's his "stiff hips", questionable football IQ, and poor technique (no wonder I never noticed this guy! I must have read the scouting reports on him and blacked out the memory due to PTSD!)

Gustin was a Dorsey guy.  Still listed at 255 lbs, but I doubt that.  This guy lives in the weight room, and is probably over 265 rocked-up lbs by now.

Then there's Rashard Higgins.  Mayfield/Higgins--no further comment required.

Nick's "Honorable Mentions" are Kareem Hunt, Khaderal Hodge, and LB BJ Goodson.

Hodge is a Special Teams stud, and Preifer will pound the table to keep him around.

No comment required on Hunt.

Goodson is looking like another "nice catch" by Andrew Berry.

Nick mentioned Goodson's leadership, but not much more.

Prior to signing here, BJ Goodson was on the field about half the time (a run-stopper).

He'll certainly come in handy for that here, but I've heard him mentioned in the same sentence as "deflection" and "interception" at least 3 times during camp, and I wonder if BJ might have become a more complete player.

Ok got some corrections to make here (names withheld to protect the guilty):

"...already thin in the secondary" (prior to all the injuries):  Who TF publishes this garbage?  They call you "editors" for a reason, ok?

How tf is Karl Joseph, Sendejo, Ward, Williams, Mitchell, Redwine, Delpit, Johnson etc "thin"?

Be afraid, you people! These writers might VOTE!

That one takes the cretin-cake, but I also think the whole "desperate need" for depth at Linebacker stuff is mindless hyperbole too.

I just cited what Nick Dudokovich said about BJ Goodson, but per Patsko, Sione Takitaki has stepped up as well, and who tf is telling these clowns that Jacob Phillips is a project or whatever?

And SCREW the 3 Linebackers we're seeing in Camp now--Joe Woods will run 2 or fewer real Linebackers 70% of the time when it counts.

The offense and defense are "sparring" here:

This Defense won't see many 2-back offenses (including the Ravens), so the Offense is holding the Chubb/Hunt stuff back, and running more conventional stuff to help the Defense out.

They're running more "11" and "12" sets in camp right now, and Woods is running 4-3's in response to the 12's.

I wish one of these "reporters" watching these practices was a trained analyst (Patsko is so close, dammit!)

Is Goodson present vs 11?  Is Takitaki backed up in coverage?  Is Joe using 3 Linebackers to test them vs the pass (skip that one: YEP!)

When the rubber meets the road, Joe Woods wants to run Big Nickles and Dimes.  He wants more speed on the field, to "swarm" Tight Ends and Running backs, and hurry QBs, smother receivers, and get turnovers.

He'll run a nickel vs most modern 12 and 21 sets, as long as he has an aggressive and athletic Defensive Line, and a couple sideline-to-sideline run-and-hit guys...

Pearls before swines no offense okbye











Thursday, August 27, 2020

Hope for Myles Garrett, Comrade Stefanski's "Safe Space", and Browns Stuff

What is it about Myles Garrett that I can't get ticked off at him, even as he talks "solidarity" with marxists (and massive DNC donors) in BLM, and kneelers (the flag is the flag you cretins)?

Well, it's mainly because Myles is sincere, and really does care, as he reaches out and talks about murdered cops, as well as bros shot by cops.

I would love to have a couple beers with Myles Garrett, and debate him a bit.  I know that he would actually listen to me, and that I'm all primed to listen to him.

Of course, I would provide visual aids, including the Black Lives Matter website (I really doubt that Myles Garrett is a Marxist, so I bet I could persuade and enlighten him on that.  They bash capitalism, are all about LBGQXYZ stuff, generally hate America, and donate most of their money to the DNC (which is why soulless Joe has decided he is a communist too).

I want to show Myles that, and axe him why they can't spare a few cents for blighted minority communities and victims...like he does...and of course if he is a communist.

Anyway, I just really like Myles Garrett as a person, and respect him as a brain.

...and if Myles says that psychopath Mason Rudolph said something racist, I believe HIM.  (of course blahblah helmet blahblah not endorsing blahblah disclaimer shouldn't have done that blahblah)

Steve Patsko thankfully ignored Comrade Stefanski's safe space BS session and stuck to what he's observed in practice.

21, 12, and 22 personnel packages, but no Hunt/Chubb stuff.  Steve speculated that Stefanski might be keeping that combo "under wraps", which is obvious.

None of the DC's the Browns will face are fooled by this; you don't "park" a Kareem Hunt or a Nick Chubb.

Obviously, Comrade Stefanski can't be trying to fool these other coaches into thinking he is a dumbass, but what is he up to here?

Well, Steve says he saw Fullbacks deployed as receivers, Tight Ends in the backfield, and just all sorts of wierd stuff.

I think I get this: 

Kareem Hunt doesn't need much work here, or with Comrade Mayfield.  The Fullbacks and Tight Ends are new to the team, and I daresay some of them were never asked to do the stuff Stefanski is experimenting with here.

...ok, while Tight Ends at H-Back or Fullback isn't too unusual, Fullbacks in the slot or outside is...

I think Comrade Stefanski is in mad scientist mode for the moment.  Steve is probably wrong when he says we should expect Fullbacks to line up wide:

Kareem Hunt will be a "Fullback" often when the rubber meets the road, and will be on the field a lot more often than Janovich.  HE will line up at WR, but Janovich won't.

This is obvious.

Seoni Takitaki got an alleged pick-6 off an Eli Ankou deflection.  I can't find much on Ankou, except that his real height is 6'3", he's 331 lbs, and clocks 5.08 in the 40.

Unlike everybody else at DT on this roster, Ankou (31 bench-press reps) is a Nose Tackle type, in his 5th NFL season.  He has a shot to stick around here...

Takitaki got lucky here, but he's still being underrated: He was very raw as a Linebacker when he was drafted, and most of the pre-draft "dings" on him had more to do with his inexperience than anything else.

Seoni can play every Linebacker position, and with Mack Wilson out, he's a strong contender in the middle.

Case Keenum rallied on thursday, and looked like the QB who took the Vikings to the playoffs.

He looked terrible up til then, and a lot of people (including me) were wondering if he'd make the team (semi-dumb: 8 mil dead cap hit).

Garrett Gilbert has looked pretty good all along, and I'm feeling a Kelly Holcolm vibe off this guy.

Pharoah Brown has been kicking ass as a receiver, and looks to have nailed down a roster spot (assuming the Browns keep 4 Tight Ends).

Steve makes a bigger deal out of Brown's scuffles with teammates than he should.  The guy needs to be more disciplined, but Patsko reaches back into the 2019 training camp to show a "pattern" (I guess of 3 scuffles)...

Chad Porto lists 3 free agents that he thinks the Browns should try to sign, and I can't agree with some of them.

Mark Barron is a nominal Linebacker, but really he's a Safetybacker.  He's a geezer now, but worth his axing price, even as a situational guy or backup.

CB Logan Ryan is a good player, but methinks Chad is overreacting a mite to the spate of injuries the Browns just had.

Calm down, Chad!  Greedy should be back soon, Mitchell already is, and so is Kevin Johnson, and are you shoveling dirt on Donny Lewis already?

Clay Matthews III is hard to figure.  If he's cheap enough, oh hell yes!

I remember writing his father off as too old, annually, for like 5 seasons.  Clay Jr went somewhere else and kept kicking ass almost into his 40s.

And Clay III is still a real Linebacker (not just a passrusher). Verily, he's past his prime, but his physical decline probably hasn't brought him below "above average" yet (especially given his genes).

It's all about money here.  I would offer him 2 or even 3 years, with guarantees front-loaded (of course), but a guaranteed mil or 2 in the out years, plus liberal performance incentives.  At this (final) stage of his carreer, that's a great deal for him!

Clay III could line up anywhere, providing top-notch depth, as well as being a situational passrusher, and teaching the youngsters a thing or two (and I assume his Dad would come around more often).

Anyhow okbye.










Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Air Coryall Revised in 2020 Browns. Except with a LOT more Talent

Before I have to speculate about who rolled the "hot pineapple" into the Browns' locker room, Steve Patsko wrote an excellent article about the Wide Receivers (who seem to have avoided the shrapnel):

I rely on Steve a lot.  If he's opinionated, he hides it extremely well, and seems to just go by what he sees daily and weekly.

Right now, Steve is one of the few reporters allowed to watch some of the practices (I wonder if they even let Tony Grossi hang around).

As I've mentioned, I can't trust Mary Kay Cabbott, who tends to assume, and is reluctant to adjust her analyses based on new information, but I digress: Steve Patsko is on my "A-list" as a source:

As Steve reports, the 2019 Vikings Offense under Stefanski ran 11 personnel less than 20% of the time, and the rest of the time fielded a second Tight End or Running Back.

Steve also points out that Stefanski himself said that the 2020 Browns offense wouldn't neccessarily mirror the 2019 Vikings.

My readers knew this before Comrade Stefanski was hired.  It was obvious to me, and I had to point it out, as everybody else was talking dedicated fullbacks and 3 Tight Ends etc. but I digress again:

The dry statistics Patsko cites from the 2019 Vikings only tell part of that story, and the Browns' unique roster in 2020 add a lot to it that Steve didn't consider:

(Redundancy Alert) Kareem Hunt (the second Running Back) can line up anywhere Ebineezer Bell lines up, including in the slot or wide.

So 21 personnel can easily turn into a 3-wide spread (and obviously will), often...and (for the 30th or so time sorry), Kareem Hunt is the third WR by default.

I'm not bashing Patsko here.  He was just trying to figure out the WR pecking order here, and project keepers, without much regard for X's and O's.

Steve probably correctly estimated 5 WRs on the final roster (and factored Hunt in without mentioning him).

Anyhow, Steve's observations didn't line up with my own projections, therefore he is wrong.

NAH!  Microbe JoJo Natson (per Steve) has been THE top WR not named Beckham or Landry based on his usage on the 1st and 2nd team offense.

Mary Kay probably ignored this, but I can't.  A real analyst expects to be wrong sometimes, and indeed looks forward to it, as his (or her sigh) job is to be as accurate as possible on an ongoing basis (but I digress again):

Anyway it looks like I was wrong about Higgins or Hodge or Ratley or even rookie Peoples-Jones (ie big tall guys) being ahead of (kick/punt return specialist) JoJo Natson.

Regardless of how this depth chart shakes out, Comrade Stefanski is obviously not as smart as me not sweating "big target" Wide Receivers, and is prioritizing home run hitters at that position.

Steve makes sure to cite the WR's Coach's praise of Rashard Higgins (which was profuse), but...

Revised Analysis (including the signing of 6'3" 203 lb undrafted Bengals WR Damion Willis):

Comrade Stefanski intends to lean hard on Comrade Mayfield's judgement and accuracy, and is looking for big plays out of all of his true WRs.

I was onto this in my last couple posts: this is looking like "Air Coryall" a lot more than Bill Walsh's 49ers West Coast, which succeeded and modified it.

Dan Fouts had a good arm and was extra-smart and accurate, but not big, strong, or athletic.

He had Hall of Famer in (I assume) Kellen Winslow at Tight End, and Chuck Muncie at RB.  He had Charlie Joiner and Wes Chandler at WR in 1983.

RB Chuck Muncie averaged less than 4 ypc, but caught 42 passes for 396 yards, and was "money" (12 TDs) in the red zone.

Eric Sievers was the second Tight End in that "12" offense, and had 33 catches for 452 yards.

Winslow was (by far) the leading receiver with 88 catches for 1172 yards.  Between Sievers and Winslow, and Muncie, Tight Ends and Running Backs dominated the receiving stats.

Niether WR averaged over 15 yards per-catch, but both Tight Ends averaged over 11 yards per catch, and Muncie over 9.

In reality, Dan Fouts never had a "home run hitter" or a very strong running game (or a good defense, by the way), but this prolific passing offense was called "Air Coryall".

The key was Dan Fouts, see?  Check the stats from the '83 team.  Dan Fouts spread the ball roughly evenly among all his receivers, except for Kellen Winslow (Sr), who he favored somewhat---duh.

I personally remember that team, but was surprised to discover how dumb I was back then, as I thought those Chargers were 3-wide and Fouts was a mad bomber.

  • 2 Tight Ends?  Really?  I never knew that Eric Sievers existed until I checked these stats, but this guy beat Winslow by 2-plus YPC!


But I digress again: 

Comrade Stefanski with the 2020 Browns seems more Coryall than Walsh so far:

The two WRs will probably "go deep" most of the time (like Chandler and Joiner did) to back the corners off and threaten the Deep Safety (instead of breaking in underneath for easy "dink" catches)...

That principle is the same today as it was in 1983...except Dan Fouts didn't have an OBJ, and (I gotta say) wasn't as boldly bloodthirsty as Comrade Mayfield is (no knock on Dan, who is obviously a vastly superior human being) but I digress again: 

Mayfield is like Dan Fouts, except more athletic (and bloodthirsty, and clueless, and spineless...)

The 2020 Browns' offense is superior to the 1983 Chargers' offense, except at Tight End.

OBJ is a home-run hitter. Kareem Hunt is Chuck Muncie on steroids (and Nick Chubb is here too!)

Fouts might have had better Tight Ends overall, but not by much...

Bryant Harrison has been kicking ass (I am surprised!  I think he's lost at least 12 lbs by the way; he's a for real pass-catching TE, and my man Njoku is in trouble for sure).

I've been defending Njoku, but Harrison (and Pharoah Brown, for that matter) seem to be ahead of him...

Oops more digression: anyway Fouts had Winslow but didn't have OBJ, Chubb, or Hunt either so............

The Offense is ok so far, but OMFG Mack Wilson out for at least half a season, Delpit for the whole season, Williams, Mitchell, wtf!?!

Kevin Johnson is back from injury, and Sendejo/Joseph are ok for now, but this is right out of a horror novel (mainly at Cornerback).

The Browns are ok at Safety still (with Redwine and Rodney Hasselfield), but man corners don't grow on trees.

As always, I look at the bright side, and like that Donnie Lewis et al are getting more reps, but my battery is running out so bye
















Sunday, August 23, 2020

Browns Need to Trade Draft Picks and Money for Greedy Old Malcontents ASAP

Ok you people, quit even thinking about the Browns trading away high draft picks and spending big money on each and every high-profile malcontent that demands a trade.

It's automatic!   After every such news article or report "should the Browns trade for this guy?", regardless of position or need.

What a waste of time (right, Chad?)

Casey Kinnamon is great, but wasted my time this time, saying that the Browns shouldn't trade with their Division rivals for the venerable Earl Thomas.

Ya think?

Casey was jumping in ahead of the utterly predictable question some other writer will predictably ask in the wake of the trade-demand article, but still...

John Dorsey made trades like that.  DePoBerry will NOT.  

I still miss Jabrill Peppers and Kevin Zeitler, and wonder who he could have drafted in the first and third round in 2019, ya know?

The cap hit would be around 15 million cheaper, and we'd have that 1st and 3rd rounder entering their second seasons, ok?

I'm thrilled to hear that OBJ is tearing it up, but still will check out the prop bets in re how long it takes for him to get injured again, and ditto Olivier Vernon, who will be an expensive 2-year rental.

The Browns signed LB Malcolm Smith, despite what Porto and I felt about it, but it's interesting:

This guy has been...a carreer backup, and is here to for depth.

I do believe that Joe Woods and company have confidence in Takitaki, Goodson, Phillips and (maybe) Avery, and rented Smith cheap for insurance.

Mary Kay will never get this.  She has rubber-stamped all of the above with a "P" for "project" or "B" for "backup".  She's a prototype MM.

Here is what a real intelligent analyst does:

The Browns just signed XFL DT Ricky Waters too.

I was telling you guys that they needed a fourth 300 lb penetrator like they need a hole in the head.

I was obviously wrong.  See?  i admitted it, instead of calling Joe Woods and company a dumbass.  That's part of it, see?  Get your fkng EGO out of it, and roll with the changes.

Obviously, Joe Woods doesn't think he needs a big strong space-eating nose tackle, as there were a few of those on the market, and I saw zero interest from the Browns.

I am not offended or angry about this.  I just try to figure out what it means:

It looks like I was wrong about some 3-man fronts being mixed in, and possibly even about the zero shade DT being part of this.

That's right: I look wrong about a LOT of stuff right now.  

Anyway this is new data and I'm rational, so what does this mean?

Well, Joe Woods 2020 front 4 should ALL attack, even on running downs.

All these guys are real athletes who can penetrate, play in space, change directions and pursue.

I know this seems counterintuitive, considering how bad the Browns have sucked vs the run (it's why I assumed they'd replace Wilson with another Wilson and "upsize" the zero shade in a 4-3 under, but nooooo!)

I remember Bud Carson ("Steel Curtain"?  Yeah that was him).

He was a 4-3 guy who believed in playing in the enemy's backfield.  He never had or wanted a big, ponderous Defensive Lineman either.

Bud was a "you go or I go" guy for his whole carreer, and was one of the best Defensive Coordinators in NFL history.  ALL his defenses kicked ass everywhere he went (including with the Browns).

Bud's defenses always got lots of turnovers, as well as being solid and stingy.

He always wanted two MAN cornerbacks and four real athletes on the Defensive Line.

He generally ran "single high" coverage with a Safety in "center field". This guy could be a bigger cornerback or whatever, but his main job was to HIT people.

Verily, that's an issue in today's cupcake NFL, but the concept is still valid.

The other guys weren't that important (except Carson wanted a Safetybacker too; mainly a run-and-hit guy short and intermediate, however you labeled him.  In his stint as Browns' Head Coach, it was WIL David Grayson, who was a superstar exactly until Bud and he separated).

Anyhoo, the game has changed since then, but the "souped-up" Defensive Line Concept still works (especially vs RPOs, motion, and Read-option).

Ex-Ram Dieken Jones said (something like) "Offensive Lines didn't wear us down.  We wore them down."

...but I digress: It looks like Joe Woods will attack with his front 4 all game long, seeking inside penetration at all times with his Tackles.

If successful, that's a built-in automatic passrush, which would mean that Woods wouldn't need to blitze a lot.  He could have seven guys in coverage...

BJ Goodson has looked good vs the pass lately.  It would be great if he turns out to have "blossomed" in coverage at this point in his carreer, since that would make him a damn good every-down linebacker.

I addressed Rodney Phillipsfield and Seoni Takitaki in my last post, but they matter here, as they, like Goodson, are good vs the run.

...is any of this sinking in yet?

Berry drafted Phillips and signed Goodson, but Takitaki was working with the first team even before Mack Wilson got hurt.

All the safeties including Delpit are good vs the run, and Woods can run one, two, or three deep with the people he has too.

Sendejo, Joseph, AND Delpit (and Hassel too IMO)!?!

(PS oh yeah let's trade a couple more 1st round picks and 22 mil for another safety right?)

I might change my mind again based on new information, but right now I think Joe Woods is throwing all that 4-3 under/over etc stuff out the window like Bud Carson (and whoever coached Dieken Jones' Rams) did.

My long-time readers will understand why I hope I'm right, because I believe that the best defense is an offensive defense.

Check out the Adrian Clayborne signing.  That guy isn't here to do anything other than attack.  Renegotiating with (rather than releasing) Gramps Vernon is another clue.

BJ Goodon and Jacob Phillips are 2 more pieces to this puzzle.

As inconceivable as this sounds, it looks to me like Joe Woods hopes to put 4 Defensive Linemen in the backfield to nail or reroute running backs or hurry or nail QBs and just generally screw up every single offensive play all game long.

I called Bud Carson a "you go or I go" guy, but that was an overstatement.

90% of the time, the "you go" part of that proved out.  

Honestly, I can't project how well Woods' (apparently) Carsonian Defense will work out in 2020 overall, but I can tell you that quicker, faster, and more aggressive defenses are the answer for the Offenses the Browns, Ravens, Rams, 49ers, et al are running, and so do Takitaki, Phillips, and (hopefully) Goodson.

(Check back a few posts: I attempted to explain how Linebackers used to actually be the main run-stuffers.  I'm serious!)

Ex-DB Joe Woods seems to think that Defensive Backs should cover and Linebackers should tackle running backs!  WOW, right?  I KNOW!

What an innovator this guy is! 

Seriously, the 2 man corners outside and the center-fielder are important.  The 4 down linemen are important.  The other 4 guys are negotiable.

I believe Joe Woods is all about speed/athleticism (a "swarming" defense btw), so of course there's a Strong Safety...

...that leaves 3 slots.

Most commonly that should be 2 run-stopping Linebackers who can cover IN Z O N E, and a Safetybacker.

That's a "Big Nickel", but you can't generalize.  You can't put Delpit over Edelman, for example...

But I digress the key here is a ferocious, attacking front 4 and a couple Linebackers who can stuff the run.

When the Linebackers know where the Defensive Linemen are going they can oknevermind okbye