Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Dumb and Smart Browns Offseason Analysis, and Supersmart Analysis (blush-blush)

Albert Breer on 92.5 stressed that the Browns need to land one or more free agent Offensive Tackles ahead of the draft, since there could be a "run on" them inside the top 10, and the Browns could get left out in the cold.

Peter Smith responded diplomaticly to this, but I have to say that is just plain DUMB.

At least 2 QBs, Young, Simmons, and 1-2 WRs will go in the top 10.  The first Offensive Tackle is unlikely to go before 4th overall.

Contrary to some opinions, this OT draft class is not "top heavy", as there may be as many as EIGHT with first round grades.

Peter said what I've been saying (sorta): If the top 4 are somehow miraculously gone by pick 10, they could trade down and still get Josh Jones, or one of 2-3 other guys who are only marginally behind the top tier.

But as usual, Peter's other thoughts were enlightening.

Pete doesn't expect the Browns to spend what it would take to nail down Jack Conklin (dammit), but lists several other lesser-known, often younger OTs who are capable starters and ideal scheme-fits.

They all lack leverage in the face of this amazing draft class, and could be signed comparatively cheap.

Smith points out that the team needs not only starters, but quality depth players to fill in in the future.

Pete could have written a novel here, but isn't given the space.  I can fill in a few blanks:

The bidding war for Conklin is libel to get rediculous, in Pete's opinion, in spite of this draft class.  (I'm not sure I agree:  The top teams which draft lower tend to have their OTs under contract.  The losing teams will naturally look to address this in the draft; and nobody is one Jack Conklin away from a Superbowl.)

But I've seen it before.  Indeed, I expect somebody to overpay for OBJ in spite of an even deeper WR draft class.  (of course, some teams are one OBJ away from a Superbowl so...)

Anyway Pete expects Conklin to get too expensive for DePodesta.  

...I'm not sure Peter Smith really understands analytics in-depth.  Pete seems to think that DePoBerry are miserly penny-pinchers who will never pay a dime over market value for any player.

That's wrong.  Conklin has been an iron man, is only 26, and is a RIGHT Tackle.  But he can play Left Tackle.  But he can't demand Left Tackle money.  

He's as close to a "can't miss" as it gets, and could take Right Tackle off the Board for the next 4-5 years.  

10% over market value in 2020 might be a premium worth paying for all that.

But I digress: assuming the Browns don't sign Conklin, I assume that Pete's much cheaper FA OT alternatives are capable starters, so that works too.

As Smith points out, Callahan might be the best Offensive Line coach there is, so the Browns don't need elite talent, and can spend more in other areas.

Pete is also right that the Browns' next Right Guard might well be on the roster (see 17-18 previous posts).

Jake Trotter writes about how the Browns intend to help Baker Mayfield out in 2020.

Nothing new to my readers, except the coaches themselves have been talking about their plans for him.

In addition to lots more play-action (duh), they intend to move him (rollouts and stuff).

Here, they're not just helping the Bakemeister, but the Offensive Line as well (see 45 or so previous posts).  Quarterbacks' pre-planned rollouts help blockers a lot.

They'll also max out Kareem Hunt as a foolproof receiver, and (as they've promised) use Chubb as a receiver more as well.

They didn't mention trading OBJ away, but they'll do that too.

Some writers' interpretations of Alex Van Pelt's critiques of Baker Mayfield's pre-snap shotgun stance has been taken to otherworldly levels.  It's both funny and sad to read:

Baker Mayfield's ennate mechanics are as close to perfect as it gets.  All Van Pelt said was that he wants Baker to stand with his left foot forward in the shotgun!!!

Van Pelt doesn't want Mayfield to go to Quarterback gurus in the offseason any more than Mayfield himself wanted to.

That's because Mayfield is naturally close to perfect, and Van Pelt doesn't want anybody else monkeying around with him.

Is any of this sinking in?

After saying he wants Baker's left foot forward in shotgun, he gets kinda abstract, talking about rythm and stuff.

Honestly, I had/have trouble figuring out how having your left foot forward in shotgun is important (per Van Pelt), but am pretty sure I have at least partly decrypted it:

Van Pelt is zeroed in on a West Coast offense, in which the QB is expected to throw a pass almost instantly.  Alex simply wants Mayfield ready to throw immediately!

This is a very good sign (if you respect Alex Van Pelt as a Coach--which everybody does):

It also offers a clue to the offense he and Stefanski intend to run:

They expect Baker Mayfield to read the defense pre-snap and pre-determine where he will throw, and to be ready to make that throw before the ball comes to him.

Bing-bang, see?  He catches the snap and throws the ball all within one second, ok?

Don't get me wrong here: No offense (including the 49ers dynasty) can (successfully) pull that off more than 3-5 times in a whole game, but:

...ok see, the Quarterback spots a major mismatch (or defensive screw-up) pre-snap, knows his receiver sees it too, and (ahem) has his left foot forward when he fields the shotgun snap, so he can make that throw instantly, off a stable platform, with perfect touch and accuracy.

Baker habitually has his right foot forward in shotgun.  It worked fine for him in college, but you get it, right?  In the NFL, if only 2 or 3 times in a game, shifting your feet to throw could take too long!

Baker Mayfield's footwork and mechanics are generally perfect, both in the pocket and on the move, as Stefanski and Van Pelt both stressed.

Verily, he backslid in 2019.  He was innacurate, and seemed fixated on rifling every pass into a tight (or non-existant) window.

There was obviously something wrong with him mentally.

1: Freddie Kitchens became Dorsey's guy when Dorsey named him Head Coach.  When Dorsey brought OBJ here, Mayfield was pressured to target OBJ.

1a: OBJ avoided all voluntary off-season workouts, and then plays through an injury which undermined his ability to separate from defenders (I salute OBJ for this, but

1b: This had a lot to do with a lot of deflections, interceptions, and incompletions.  By Baker Mayfield.

Verily, Baker "bought in" and tried to force it to work--probably for Freddie Kitchens' sake, but

2: The injured OBJ couldn't separate as he had (but was still above average and productive), so Mayfield fixated on him.

In my opinion, this was Baker Mayfield being a "good soldier", and following orders.

See 77 or so previous posts:  Baker Mayfield needs a "number one" receiver like he needs a hole in the head (and dammit pay attention this time!):

At Oklahoma, and in 2018, opposing defenses couldn't key on any of his receivers. He just looked around and threw to whovever was open (this is partly why they love him so much btw).

No knock on OBJ here: He's going to be awesome again post-surgery and might be a clown but "diva" my ass etc., but he was a bad fit here, with Mayfield, and tied for the dumbest move Dorsey ever made (with Olivier Vernon, of course).

Post-OBJ in 2020, Baker's upside is astronomical:

Ignoring the running game and play-action off it, I expect Stefanski to max Kareem Hunt out as a receiver, and throw more to Nick Chubb (sorry for the redundancy, but so far most of the people you read instead of me don't see it yet: Somebody has to read and regurgitate one of my posts, then others re-re-regurgitate it, then YOU see it, and don't even remember you read it here weeks or months before 🖕).

Long story short: Patrick Mahomes is the "one that got away", but Wentz, Watson, etc are NOT.

Anyhoo, count on Baker Mayfield to kick ass in 2020...

Not that it matters.  People in San Fran think Tom Brady will kick Garopollo to the curb. (I can assure you that Kyle Shanahan is not one of them).

...What will Lord Insideous do now? 

I'll happily answer these questions later.  








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