Monday, March 30, 2020

Bowns Linebackers, Safeties, Hunt, Business Analytics, Idiocracy, and Corrections

After reading so much simpletonian dumbassitude in re the Browns, Dan Labbe joins Smith and Dudukovich as my sanity-preserver with a great article.

First, is Mack Wilson ready to step in at MLB for Joe Schobert? Dan wisely doesn't try to answer that question.

Wilson is kind of a Schobert "type", as he is good in coverage, and a conventional linebacker.

PFF grades him as really bad vs both the pass and run in 2019 (with a mediocre passrush grade: 60), but as Dan points out, he got much better later in his rookie season.

Wilson was also playing outside (WIL, I think).

Recall that Joe Schobert was a 3-4 OLB in college, and was unsuccessful there as a rookie under Mike Pettine (and I was telling you he belonged inside in the NFL).

In year 2, Schobert got his shot as a 4-3 MLB, and the rest is history.

Joe's ability to diagnose plays presnap is off the charts, and Mack Wilson has yet to show just how much of that Joe was able to teach him, but Mack has all the physical tools Joe did (and more).

Dan calls Seone Takitaki "more of an edge-rusher", but in his microscopic sample size, Takitaki graded out much higher than Wilson overall, vs the run, and vs the pass (he was very good vs the run).

In fairness, Seone had some time to learn on the bench first, and then only played 105 snaps, vs Wilson's 942.

But Dan is wrong to dismiss Takitaki as "more of an edge-rusher".  Takitaki is a full-spectrum linebacker who fits either in the middle or on the strong side.  

Many dismiss Takitaki because he will never be able to man-up on pass-catching Tight Ends in coverage (like Wilson can), but he can drop and play zone, and excels at everything else linebackers do.

And as I've mentioned, it's not carved in stone that all Middle Linebackers must excel in coverage.

Verily, those Hoopers and Njokus love going vertical down the middle and outrunning guys like Takitaki, but defenses have used big safeties and schemes to compensate for "thumper"-type MLBs in coverage.

Schottenheimer had Clay Matthews line up right in the Tight End's face, where he MUGGED him and forced him outside.  

The game has changed a lot since then, but not that part of it.

I'm nitpicking here, though.  Dan should be more open-minded, but right now it does look like Takitaki is the only SAM on the current roster, so Mack Wilson has the edge in the middle.

Next Dan axes if Kareem Hunt is really the 3rd receiver.  Finally, somebody besides my humble self brings this up!!!

If Kareem Hunt isn't turned into a 2nd round draft pick or traded, he will be the third receiver (or even the 2nd, if OBJ is traded).

The coaches will have to find ways to get Hunt on the field.

Other writers have bemoaned how D'Ernest Johnson disappeared later in 2019, but that's because Hunt took over his role.  He also made it easy for John Dorsey Freddie Kitchens to make sure Higgins and Njoku remained on the bench.

This is why Captain Obvious and I agree that Hunt will be traded for any reasonable offer.


While Hunt is an awesome weapon any team would love to have, on this team, he is keeping Njoku, Higgins, Rodney Ratleyfield, and Johnson on the bench.


Is any of this sinking in yet?  They traded for Javovich, and overpaid Hooper!  Do you think they plan to park those guys (or Rodney Njokufield) on the bench?

Ohhmmm...ohhmmm...

If Kareem Hunt is here in 2020, he will be the 3rd (or 2nd) receiver (and thanks again, Dan), but the offense could function just fine without him.

With D'Ernest Johnson, Janovich, and/or Njoku, see?  Kareem Hunt is better than all those guys, but what about a high second round pick instead?

Hmm...well that guy is under contract for 4 years cheap, whereas Hunt is a GMF after 2020.  That guy could address a need.  Maybe a stud safety or linebacker or WR (*remember OBJ is on the block here on this planet*).  D'Ernest Johnson kicked ass in 2020 and is probably better than DUKE was!

I'm sorry.  It's just that nobody else (outside the organization) seems to comprehend this, and it's frustrating.  

Anyway Dan is right: As it stands, Kareem Hunt is the third receiver.

...who was "underused" last season my god what's wrong with you people ohmmm...

How close is the safety room to finished?  I agree with Dan that the Browns need to draft another one (or more).  I specify a Free Safety.

Karl Joseph is young enough to possibly earn a longer contract, but he's not perfect and hasn't been durable.  Sandejo is fading into the sunset, and isn't as good at free as at strong.  Redwine is promising, but expert consensus says he's better at SS too.  Hassel was a linebacker in college.  He has the physical tools to play FS, but who knows?

For 2020, the Browns have SS covered in depth, but FS just barely.

Chinn and Dugger are the physical freaks in this draft class.  Both project as SS's, but have potential at FS if they can get "smarter", so to speak.

I can't stand that Winfield is only 5'9", but he's like the Honey Badger...

But if the Browns trade OBJ, they might have a shot at Delpit, McKinney, or Davis.

Ok but Chinn is different.  Jeremy Chinn lacks "football intelligence"/instincts at this point, per Lance Zierlein, but this is his only weakness.

Chinn is 6'3", 221 lbs, which partly why some scouts have projected him as a linebacker.

Zierlein's analysis describes a strong safety or linebacker who can immediately excel in the NFL if he's not required to diagnose stuff like Schobert does.

I'm fascinated by this guy (nephew of Steve Atwater).  Lord Insideous (Belichick) would put him in front of Njoku or Hooper and say "cover him" at first--and (as soon as he caught up with their dirty tricks) he could!

And that's huge in today's NFL.  Chinn clocked 4.45 and jumped 41", so he can blitze too.

This is Chinn's floor, ok?  His cieling is unknown.  He'll naturally get up over 230 lbs or more under Hans and Franz, and his football IQ will improve with experience. (*He's not a "natural" like Schobert, but all defensive players improve in reading offenses with experience*).

Jabrill Peppers famously failed as a Free Safety under Gregg Williams here, but kicked ass as a Strong Safety, see?

Dugger is more like Peppers though...but I digress:

Dan Labbe's last question is who is going to play Right Guard?

I don't know either, but agree with Dan that finding one from outside the organization isn't the "urgent" "desperate" need that some Chicken Littles hallucinate it is.

Zac Jackson (I didn't listen to the podcast) says that the Browns should not trade out of 10th overall.

I vehemently disagree.

There are 7 or 8 Left Tackles who could instantly start here, in this scheme, in this draft class.  Not just the top 4 and the rest are bumbs.

Indeed, at least 2 of those in the "2nd tier" LT's have higher cielings than half the first tier!

Zac shouldn't run an NFL team (or business).

The Browns #1 need at Left Tackle + the abundance of Left Tackles in this draft class + a strong QB class screams trade-down for this team at this time!

The Browns are no longer rebuilding, but they're still under construction, and are aiming at sustainable success, Zac.

They can "settle for" just merely an above average as a rookie Left Tackle if it means they can also bring down a stud LB or S or an edge-rusher with upside or a lethal WR or whatever.

Seriously, I know Zac Jackson isn't a dumbass, but saying the Browns shouldn't trade down in 2020 is dumbassitude.

I mean like the Cowboys shouldn't have traded Herchel Walker, or whoever traded Ricky Williams to Mike Ditka shouldn't have done that.

Anyhoo YOU STAND CORRECTED

THIS JUST IN:

The Browns should sign Everson Griffin instead of Jadeveon Clowney because Griffin Knows Stefanski and Joe Woods.

Period.

Wtf are you editors thinking?  He's your nephew, right?  The movie "Idiocracy" was prophetic.  I can see why I don't fit.












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