Free Agency is almost upon us, and I won't be surprised if, once again, at one minute past midnight a bunch of pending signings are announced.
You know--agents and teams aren't allowed to negotiate until midnight, right? So it's amazing how fast these guys can negotiate deals!
Anyway as usual, most of the punditry is lagging behind my humble self in re some of the targets.
I'm back in like with Jack Conklin, since I finally did my homework and saw that PFF graded him at 74 in pass pro (83.7 run-blocking).
Some writer told us that Jack was weak in pass protection, and I bought it. But 74 is a respectable grade (unless you're a Browns fan, and you set that bar at Joe Thomas jeez...)
However, some people are already projecting this R I G H T Tackle's new contract at over 18 mil.
That's where good poker players fold their hands, ok? Paul DePodesta lets the "foodball guyz" break their banks and won't overpay (by that much).
When the Sashi Brown Front Office signed Zeitler and Tretter, some said that they overpaid for Zeitler.
They might have, technically, but Zeitler remains one of the 3-5 best guards in the NFL. It was a smart move.
The other bidders will almost always drive a player's price above market value, and (analytics or no) the smartest Front Offices set their do-or-die price a little higher for high-profile players in a weak market.
But 18 mil for Conklin would be 15-20% over market, and that's officially rediculous. The smartest Front Offices never overpay by that much.
However, Spotrack.com projects 6 years, average 15 mil/year. There are only 32 General Managers in the NFL, and it's less likely that this writer is a dumbass than one of them are.
DePoBerry may well go after him and allow a 1.5 mil/year dumbass premium (to outbid them, see?)
As I outlined in my last post, a team with a ton of cap space can offer a huge signing bonus in year 1 to mitigate the annual cap-hits in the out years.
They could offer Conklin a 10 mil bonus up front, and actually pay him up to 25 mil in 2020. Then, as early as 2021, Conklin would cost 13 mil or less (maybe 10 mil guaranteed).
That 10 mil up front would knock some of the prospective bidders out of the auction from the start, since most teams couldn't match 25 mil, right?
Yes, this could actually happen, and so could Bud Dupree.
The Browns have around 65 mil now. Releasing Hubbard and trading OBJ would push that up over 85 mil. Only a few teams can match the massive signing bonusses the Browns can offer up front, so if Berry sets his sights on a given player, he'll have a good chance of nailing him down.
Players and agents love big signing bonuses. It's one big fat huge check they get before training camp even starts. Often, they'll even accept less overall money in order to put that money in the bank and lock up front-loaded guarantees.
They're all paranoid about injuries.
Local permabashers will ask why Conklin or Dupree (or one of the elite safeties) would want to come to this "dumpster fire", but the players are usually smarter than that.
Dupree is an expert on the Browns' offensive talent, and sees the hole opposite Garrett
*I forgot the Vernon release. 15.5 more--they might have over a hundred mil in cap space, ok? They could dump 50 mil on Dupree and Conklin in 2020 and have 50 mil left!!!*
Conklin knows Tretter and Bitonio and Nick Chubb, and (trust me) all Offensive Linemen want to play in a play-action run-oriented zone-blocking scheme.
If I were me (or DePoBerry), Conklin and Dupree would be my "Plan A" high profile FA targets (I love Littleton too, but he's a linebacker and likely to get even more overpaid than Schobert).
This is what DePodesta does.
I'm a fan too, so I'm conditioned to expect disappointment and failure. But remember when they signed Tretter and Zeitler? Andrew Berry had a lot to do with that, and Paul DePodesta had more influence then than after Dorsey got here.
Vernon and OBJ are Dorsey guys. There are reasons for optimism now! I've been spelling those reasons out ever since Paul DePodesta was implicitly empowered.
In my dreams, I see Bud Dupree and Jack Conklin as Cleveland Browns. Then also 2 excellent young safeties and (ideally) Middleton (or Schobert back at a more reasonable price).
The safety part of this is almost easy, as so many are available, and have connections to Stefanski or Woods.
Linebackers are the running backs of defenses, and are cheap. Safeties are getting more props these days, but are still comparatively inexpensive, and the Browns can probably address their needs here via free agency.
DePodesta WILL exploit his cash in every case, and spend a lot of his cap money in order to sign the rest of these guys to long-term contracts, but will still probably have 25-35 mil or so in "rollover" money.
As of the draft (in my optimistic fantasy), the Browns "needs" are down to a Left Tackle, Depth on the edge/DL, and...well don't get me started on "the Stefanski offense" and fullbacks and tight ends, ok?
The "wide zone" scheme works with any given combination of skill talent, and Stefanski (like Kubiak and Shanahan) use what players they have.
Maybe some of these clowns would quit blabbing this crap if there was a "FB" in front of Kareem Hunt's name on the depth chart...
Nah!
But I digress: Rodney Ratleyfield is no OBJ, but ought to be ready to start in his place. Rashard Higgins should also be re-signed.
Njoku sucked statistically as a receiver in 2019, but showed improvement as a blocker, and if you want a real measure of him as a reciever, look at his first two seasons, ok?
I can't believe that pundits are talking about replacing Njoku already, as if his most recent injury (and OBJ) plagued season is all there is, or something.
I repeat: John Dorsey is gone, and OBJ will be gone soon as well. Baker Mayfield will be able to hit whoever is open again (and more often than not decide on that presnap), and Njoku will be one of those targets in this offense.
Tight End is NOT a priority for the 2020 Browns, nor is Fullback (although upgrades at each would be nice).
Chief Strategy Officer Paul DePodesta has to look down the road a piece. He can't count on Kareem Hunt in 2021 (*he should try to extend him right now, while he lacks leverage and the Browns have it, but I doubt that Paul is as smart as...nevermind*)
Anyway in 2020 the Browns will have Chubb, Njoku, Landry, and (sigh remember the OBJ trade) Ratley at the skill positions.
You can bash Ratley if you want, but in his third season I expect him to kick ass.
That's a 21 base offense. That's 2 "running backs" and 1 Tight End. There is one WR, and only one slot left over: a TE, WR, or RB.
I guess the permabashers will label Ratley and Njoku "busts", but this is one of the deepest WR drafts in history, and DePodesta knows it...
...and he will probably get a 1st round pick for OBJ, and more picks as he trades down from 10th overall.
Paul DePodesta might just be able to overcome the damage Dorsey did, and get the Browns in contention in 2020...
Well assuming he takes my advice. (The communications glitch hasn't been fixed yet, so Paul and Andrew don't get my texts or emails).
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