Monday, March 16, 2020

Andrew Berry: You're Welcome! Browns New Front Office Almost as Smart as My Humble Self! So Far so Great!!!

It's pretty obvious that Andrew Berry reads this Blog, as he just signed Jack Conklin and Austin Hooper.  Unfortunately, those Steeler bastids franchised Bud Dupree, so he's off the table.

Conklin is here for 3 years, 42 mil total, and (sure enough) Andy took my advice (blush-blush) and loaded 20 mil of that into 2020.

This big up-front pay day may be why Conklin signed so quickly for less than market value.

By the way, that's business analytics.

Mitch Zoloty may have covered some of the other reasons long before this signing was made (ie how well he fits a Shanahan blocking scheme).

This may not be over, as Callahan might be wondering if he can play on the left side (although that seems unlikely, given the contract).

Conklin is a MASSIVE upgrade, and the Browns got him cheap.  I'm frankly stunned.

Conklin shouldn't overshadow the Austin Hooper deal.  They locked Hooper up for 4 years, 44 mil.  I can promise you that that contract was front-loaded as well.

Hooper isn't Ertz or Dissley, but he is nearly 90% reliable as a receiver.  PFF grades him mediocre as a run blocker, but pretty good in pass protection, and borderline elite as a receiver.

Hooper will challenge Rodney Njokufield, but Kevin Stefanski will have them both on the field a lot.

More business analytics: DePodesta nails Hooper down for 4 years, undermines Njoku's leverage (shrinks his Brinks truck), and has great TE insurance! 

Meanwhile, Stefanski can run his...

Ok well here, he'll run a cave man offense (a 22) a lot.  2 backs, 2 TEs, and (yes) one real Wide Receiver.

This is almost as unconventional as the Revens' offense, but if you believe that Kevin Stefanski will try to field his best skill players as often as he can, those include Chubb, Hunt, Njoku, and (now) Hooper.

I'm overstating this, of course.  This 22 set might only be on the field 30-35% of the time, but that's still very hard to prepare for or stop.

In my wheelhouse: Modern NFL defenses aren't built to stop a 22 offense any more than they were built to stop Lamar Jackson and 3 Tight Ends.

Defenses have to go "big" to match up.  But they have to use their top 2 cornerbacks, since coverage is what they do, and they know that ALL of these guys are potential receivers...

Well what would you do?  When you see the huddle you see 22 personnel, but when the huddle breaks you could find yourself facing a spread offense, with Njoku and Hunt in the slot or wide...

Mismatches out the yinyang, see?

Now they signed Case Keenum!  Wow he's the perfect veteran backup QB, and he can teach his fellow...careful now...erreh...vertically-challenged QB (Baker Mayfield) a thing or 3, and absotively take over if Mayfield gets hurt.

They gave Kareem Hunt a second round tender, and that might not be the end of that.  Somebody might actually try to sign Hunt (like Belichick, who as usual drafts low in every round).

That's perfect too, as it compels other teams to do all the negotiating, and the GM can still match the offer.

The worst that can happen now is that Kareem Hunt goes elsewhere and Berry picks up another 2nd round pick.

(That would simplify things for Stefanski, anyway).

Ah here we go: Hooper 4 years, 42 mil, 23 mil guaranteed in the first 2 years.  Yep!  Moneyball business analytics again!  Hoo wooda thunked it?

Baker Mayfield will need surgery to remove the grin from his face.

This isn't over, of course, but (yes analytics again) DePoBerry took Tight End and Right Tackle off their draft board today.

I guarantee you that they will sign at least one Safety and nickel cornerback shortly, and an EDGE guy of some sort ahead of the draft.

I’m not Peter Smith or Jake Burns here, and could be fulla beans, but it seems to me that Austin Hooper and Rodney Njokufield block better in space than they do in line (like all athletic Tight Ends do), and am looking forward to seeing this wide zone in action with the two of them and Conklin running around and hitting people.

You probably don’t get this yet, but the “mismatches” aren’t all in coverage.  Here, it means a 6’4” 250 lb dude vs shorter, lighter people, usually running in the same direction—with the defenders at a distinct disadvantage.

Austin Hooper and Jack Conklin...wow.

Wow.  So far, so great.











         




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