Colin Cowherd listed the Cleveland Browns as one of the 8 most talented teams in the NFL (6th), but ranked the Ravens 1st and the Steelers 8th.
Per Greg Newland, our friend also predicted that, due to the lack of continuity, the Browns would underachieve once again in 2020.
This doesn't tick me off whatsoever, and I gave you Greg's link because he's being grown up about it too.
Who can blame Colin or anybody else for thinking the well-established veteran Steelers and Ravens will outperform the Browns, with (as usual) new coaches and systems, and a lot of new and younger players?
Greg stipulates all that, and (THANK you man) suggests that Dorsey hired Kitchens because he could control him.
*Yeah I know I said that was BS at the time, but now think I was wrong: That Dog House of his was full of Sashi Brown's players, and I don't think that was a coincidence*
He also stipulates that the Browns have been a dumpster fire for decades (though I say less so recently).
But Greg says this year feels different, and so do I.
Greg speaks for himself, but I want to add a few hard points:
1: Paul DePodesta wanted Kevin Stefanski (then a QB Coach with 3 games interim OC experience) instead of Freddie Kitchens after 2018.
A couple years earlier, DePodesta lobbied for current Bills Head Coach Sean McDermott instead of Hue Jackson.
*I sided with Freddie and Hue my own self. I have now learned not to disagree with this guy*
2: DePodesta is not "political", emotionally insecure, or power-hungry. He has finally been given a stronger voice, and is the main reason why Kevin Stefanski and Andrew Berry are here today.
"Alignment" is a buzzword, but there is no better description of this.
No (serious) conflict. The principals have similar philospophies, and are adults.
While Stefanski hasn't proven himself yet, DePodesta is a highly respected "big brain", and Berry has a great resume.
John Dorsey had 2 years to work on this roster.
While he certainly made some impressive moves (Kizer for Randall was especially outstanding, and picking Nick Chubb as high as he did too), a lot of what he did was ego-driven.
Remember, he said that the roster he inherited from the Sashi Brown regime lacked "real football players"?
And he proceeded to purge them: Ogbah, Nassib, Shelton, Fells, DeValve...then trading Zeitler and Peppers, letting Higgins rot on the vine, benching Njoku...
You see it, don't you? John Dorsey doesn't want anybody else to get any credit. That's childish. It reflects insecurity.
These guys don't care who drafted or signed any given player. Instead of cutting Hubbard loose, they renegotiated and kept him as a backup. They're holding onto Teller, Forbes, Wilson, Takitaki--well just most of Dorsey's players.
Kevin Stefanski will run this team. DePoBerry won't interfere with his personnel decisions. They'll stay in their lanes.
The moves they've made are all logical, and clearly aligned with Kevin Stefanski's system; a Pro Bowl Tight End and an elite fullback.
*I said Stefanski would adapt his system to his players. But here goes Berry copying the Vikings roster! Stefanski will indeed adapt his offense to his roster...and run a nearly identical offense here to the one he ran in Minnesota*
Yeah, this feels different, allright!
Cowherd has a point about continuity. The Browns will field 3-5 new starters on Defense and 3-4 on offense, most likely with 2-4 rookies overall. New offensive and defensive systems.
There will be mistakes and miscommunication, especially early in the season. The Ravens and Steelers can run their systems in their sleep.
This is why (shhh!) the Browns plan to contend for the Division Title or at least the playoffs in 2020, but live in the real world, and secretly would not be surprised if they come up second in the Division; if they're still a year away.
That's why they won't do anything idiotic like trading for Trent Williams, or paying Jedeveon Clowney much more than half his current demanding price, or refusing to trade OBJ or Hunt, or trading up (for anybody other than Isaiah Simmons).
Indeed, here's my second half-assed Browns mock draft:
First, I'll steal Pete Smith's trade-down with Miami for their 26th overall, 7th in the 2nd, and 6th in the third.
Next, somebody will make Kareem Hunt an offer. I won't bother with any research here, and just throw a dart (thunk!) Ok it's the Bills.
They draft 22nd in the 2nd round (54th overall). The Bills are in win-now mode with New England rebuilding (yeah that's right), and due to Kareem's off-the-field baggage and the Browns roster situation and scheme they can make a lowball offer for a player who could carry them all the way.
So the Browns (to MKC's amazement) don't match, and will draft 22nd in the 2nd round.
Then there's OBJ. I'll wildly guess that the Titans cough up 29th overall (and maybe a 2021 4th rounder) for him. *probably stupid due to cap issues or something, but it's a low 1st rounder which serves my purposes here*
Let's review: Now the Browns draft 26th and 29th in the 1st, 7th, 9th, and 22nd in the 2nd, and 7th, 10th, and 33rd in the 3rd.
This is way too many high draft picks; 8 in the top 100, and another not missing by much.
So (before we go anywhere else) they will need to either combine some of those to move up for specific players, or trade some of those picks into the future (ie a 2020 3rd rounder for a 2021 2nd rounder).
(If they hit on the majority of these picks, 4 years down the road they will lose these guys to free agency, however well they manage their cap.)
Ok so per several mock drafts, Josh Jones (as well as Pete Smith's Ezra Cleveland) is still there at 26, and I take Jones (but Cleveland works too). Left Tackle check.
THIS JUST IN: The Browns just signed DE Adrian Clayborn (31) from the Falcons for 6 mil over 2 years.
He only had 4 sacks last season, but PFF graded him 76.6 (above average) as a passrusher (and mediocre vs the run; 57.2)
He's a decent passrusher who got 9.5 sacks in 2017. Nothing too special here, but for the price an adequate starter/outstanding depth.
He can play inside too.
Anyway, the Browns use their highest 3rd round pick to move up from 29 to nab linebacker Patrick Queen.
Zierlein loves the guy. He only started for one year, and he's rough around the edges, but Zierlein says he should start immediately and has astronomical upside.
He clocked 4.5 and is 6'0", 229 lbs so he's kind of a SS/LB hybrid---but that's ideal for the modern NFL.
At 39th overall, it's EDGE Terrell Lewis.
He played linebacker for Alabama, but is a rocked-up (complete with 6-pack) 6'5", 255 (or 261?).
He was a DE in highschool but Saban made him a linebacker, and he could play that (even in a 4-3) in the NFL.
Terrell would be a first rounder, but he missed most of 2 seasons with an elbow and a knee injury.
I can tell you that this guy is not wired to get much bigger, despite all the room on his frame--his metabolism is too high.
But 265-270? No sweat, and that's like 290 for normal guys, see?
Boom or bust as a DE but plan B is linebacker. A bit of a dice-roll, but the Browns are hurting for edge-rushers, and Lewis would at least be a situational guy opposite Garrett in 2020.
Maybe I'll continue this mockery later okbye
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Monday, March 30, 2020
Bowns Linebackers, Safeties, Hunt, Business Analytics, Idiocracy, and Corrections
After reading so much simpletonian dumbassitude in re the Browns, Dan Labbe joins Smith and Dudukovich as my sanity-preserver with a great article.
First, is Mack Wilson ready to step in at MLB for Joe Schobert? Dan wisely doesn't try to answer that question.
Wilson is kind of a Schobert "type", as he is good in coverage, and a conventional linebacker.
PFF grades him as really bad vs both the pass and run in 2019 (with a mediocre passrush grade: 60), but as Dan points out, he got much better later in his rookie season.
Wilson was also playing outside (WIL, I think).
Recall that Joe Schobert was a 3-4 OLB in college, and was unsuccessful there as a rookie under Mike Pettine (and I was telling you he belonged inside in the NFL).
In year 2, Schobert got his shot as a 4-3 MLB, and the rest is history.
Joe's ability to diagnose plays presnap is off the charts, and Mack Wilson has yet to show just how much of that Joe was able to teach him, but Mack has all the physical tools Joe did (and more).
Dan calls Seone Takitaki "more of an edge-rusher", but in his microscopic sample size, Takitaki graded out much higher than Wilson overall, vs the run, and vs the pass (he was very good vs the run).
In fairness, Seone had some time to learn on the bench first, and then only played 105 snaps, vs Wilson's 942.
But Dan is wrong to dismiss Takitaki as "more of an edge-rusher". Takitaki is a full-spectrum linebacker who fits either in the middle or on the strong side.
Many dismiss Takitaki because he will never be able to man-up on pass-catching Tight Ends in coverage (like Wilson can), but he can drop and play zone, and excels at everything else linebackers do.
And as I've mentioned, it's not carved in stone that all Middle Linebackers must excel in coverage.
Verily, those Hoopers and Njokus love going vertical down the middle and outrunning guys like Takitaki, but defenses have used big safeties and schemes to compensate for "thumper"-type MLBs in coverage.
Schottenheimer had Clay Matthews line up right in the Tight End's face, where he MUGGED him and forced him outside.
The game has changed a lot since then, but not that part of it.
I'm nitpicking here, though. Dan should be more open-minded, but right now it does look like Takitaki is the only SAM on the current roster, so Mack Wilson has the edge in the middle.
Next Dan axes if Kareem Hunt is really the 3rd receiver. Finally, somebody besides my humble self brings this up!!!
If Kareem Hunt isn't turned into a 2nd round draft pick or traded, he will be the third receiver (or even the 2nd, if OBJ is traded).
The coaches will have to find ways to get Hunt on the field.
Other writers have bemoaned how D'Ernest Johnson disappeared later in 2019, but that's because Hunt took over his role. He also made it easy forJohn Dorsey Freddie Kitchens to make sure Higgins and Njoku remained on the bench.
This is why Captain Obvious and I agree that Hunt will be traded for any reasonable offer.
Is any of this sinking in yet? They traded for Javovich, and overpaid Hooper! Do you think they plan to park those guys (or Rodney Njokufield) on the bench?
Ohhmmm...ohhmmm...
If Kareem Hunt is here in 2020, he will be the 3rd (or 2nd) receiver (and thanks again, Dan), but the offense could function just fine without him.
With D'Ernest Johnson, Janovich, and/or Njoku, see? Kareem Hunt is better than all those guys, but what about a high second round pick instead?
Hmm...well that guy is under contract for 4 years cheap, whereas Hunt is a GMF after 2020. That guy could address a need. Maybe a stud safety or linebacker or WR (*remember OBJ is on the block here on this planet*). D'Ernest Johnson kicked ass in 2020 and is probably better than DUKE was!
I'm sorry. It's just that nobody else (outside the organization) seems to comprehend this, and it's frustrating.
Anyway Dan is right: As it stands, Kareem Hunt is the third receiver.
...who was "underused" last season my god what's wrong with you people ohmmm...
How close is the safety room to finished? I agree with Dan that the Browns need to draft another one (or more). I specify a Free Safety.
Karl Joseph is young enough to possibly earn a longer contract, but he's not perfect and hasn't been durable. Sandejo is fading into the sunset, and isn't as good at free as at strong. Redwine is promising, but expert consensus says he's better at SS too. Hassel was a linebacker in college. He has the physical tools to play FS, but who knows?
For 2020, the Browns have SS covered in depth, but FS just barely.
Chinn and Dugger are the physical freaks in this draft class. Both project as SS's, but have potential at FS if they can get "smarter", so to speak.
I can't stand that Winfield is only 5'9", but he's like the Honey Badger...
But if the Browns trade OBJ, they might have a shot at Delpit, McKinney, or Davis.
Ok but Chinn is different. Jeremy Chinn lacks "football intelligence"/instincts at this point, per Lance Zierlein, but this is his only weakness.
Chinn is 6'3", 221 lbs, which partly why some scouts have projected him as a linebacker.
Zierlein's analysis describes a strong safety or linebacker who can immediately excel in the NFL if he's not required to diagnose stuff like Schobert does.
I'm fascinated by this guy (nephew of Steve Atwater). Lord Insideous (Belichick) would put him in front of Njoku or Hooper and say "cover him" at first--and (as soon as he caught up with their dirty tricks) he could!
And that's huge in today's NFL. Chinn clocked 4.45 and jumped 41", so he can blitze too.
This is Chinn's floor, ok? His cieling is unknown. He'll naturally get up over 230 lbs or more under Hans and Franz, and his football IQ will improve with experience. (*He's not a "natural" like Schobert, but all defensive players improve in reading offenses with experience*).
Jabrill Peppers famously failed as a Free Safety under Gregg Williams here, but kicked ass as a Strong Safety, see?
Dugger is more like Peppers though...but I digress:
Dan Labbe's last question is who is going to play Right Guard?
I don't know either, but agree with Dan that finding one from outside the organization isn't the "urgent" "desperate" need that some Chicken Littles hallucinate it is.
Zac Jackson (I didn't listen to the podcast) says that the Browns should not trade out of 10th overall.
I vehemently disagree.
There are 7 or 8 Left Tackles who could instantly start here, in this scheme, in this draft class. Not just the top 4 and the rest are bumbs.
Indeed, at least 2 of those in the "2nd tier" LT's have higher cielings than half the first tier!
Zac shouldn't run an NFL team (or business).
The Browns #1 need at Left Tackle + the abundance of Left Tackles in this draft class + a strong QB class screams trade-down for this team at this time!
The Browns are no longer rebuilding, but they're still under construction, and are aiming at sustainable success, Zac.
They can "settle for" just merely an above average as a rookie Left Tackle if it means they can also bring down a stud LB or S or an edge-rusher with upside or a lethal WR or whatever.
Seriously, I know Zac Jackson isn't a dumbass, but saying the Browns shouldn't trade down in 2020 is dumbassitude.
I mean like the Cowboys shouldn't have traded Herchel Walker, or whoever traded Ricky Williams to Mike Ditka shouldn't have done that.
Anyhoo YOU STAND CORRECTED
THIS JUST IN:
The Browns should sign Everson Griffin instead of Jadeveon Clowney because Griffin Knows Stefanski and Joe Woods.
Period.
Wtf are you editors thinking? He's your nephew, right? The movie "Idiocracy" was prophetic. I can see why I don't fit.
First, is Mack Wilson ready to step in at MLB for Joe Schobert? Dan wisely doesn't try to answer that question.
Wilson is kind of a Schobert "type", as he is good in coverage, and a conventional linebacker.
PFF grades him as really bad vs both the pass and run in 2019 (with a mediocre passrush grade: 60), but as Dan points out, he got much better later in his rookie season.
Wilson was also playing outside (WIL, I think).
Recall that Joe Schobert was a 3-4 OLB in college, and was unsuccessful there as a rookie under Mike Pettine (and I was telling you he belonged inside in the NFL).
In year 2, Schobert got his shot as a 4-3 MLB, and the rest is history.
Joe's ability to diagnose plays presnap is off the charts, and Mack Wilson has yet to show just how much of that Joe was able to teach him, but Mack has all the physical tools Joe did (and more).
Dan calls Seone Takitaki "more of an edge-rusher", but in his microscopic sample size, Takitaki graded out much higher than Wilson overall, vs the run, and vs the pass (he was very good vs the run).
In fairness, Seone had some time to learn on the bench first, and then only played 105 snaps, vs Wilson's 942.
But Dan is wrong to dismiss Takitaki as "more of an edge-rusher". Takitaki is a full-spectrum linebacker who fits either in the middle or on the strong side.
Many dismiss Takitaki because he will never be able to man-up on pass-catching Tight Ends in coverage (like Wilson can), but he can drop and play zone, and excels at everything else linebackers do.
And as I've mentioned, it's not carved in stone that all Middle Linebackers must excel in coverage.
Verily, those Hoopers and Njokus love going vertical down the middle and outrunning guys like Takitaki, but defenses have used big safeties and schemes to compensate for "thumper"-type MLBs in coverage.
Schottenheimer had Clay Matthews line up right in the Tight End's face, where he MUGGED him and forced him outside.
The game has changed a lot since then, but not that part of it.
I'm nitpicking here, though. Dan should be more open-minded, but right now it does look like Takitaki is the only SAM on the current roster, so Mack Wilson has the edge in the middle.
Next Dan axes if Kareem Hunt is really the 3rd receiver. Finally, somebody besides my humble self brings this up!!!
If Kareem Hunt isn't turned into a 2nd round draft pick or traded, he will be the third receiver (or even the 2nd, if OBJ is traded).
The coaches will have to find ways to get Hunt on the field.
Other writers have bemoaned how D'Ernest Johnson disappeared later in 2019, but that's because Hunt took over his role. He also made it easy for
This is why Captain Obvious and I agree that Hunt will be traded for any reasonable offer.
While Hunt is an awesome weapon any team would love to have, on this team, he is keeping Njoku, Higgins, Rodney Ratleyfield, and Johnson on the bench.
Is any of this sinking in yet? They traded for Javovich, and overpaid Hooper! Do you think they plan to park those guys (or Rodney Njokufield) on the bench?
Ohhmmm...ohhmmm...
If Kareem Hunt is here in 2020, he will be the 3rd (or 2nd) receiver (and thanks again, Dan), but the offense could function just fine without him.
With D'Ernest Johnson, Janovich, and/or Njoku, see? Kareem Hunt is better than all those guys, but what about a high second round pick instead?
Hmm...well that guy is under contract for 4 years cheap, whereas Hunt is a GMF after 2020. That guy could address a need. Maybe a stud safety or linebacker or WR (*remember OBJ is on the block here on this planet*). D'Ernest Johnson kicked ass in 2020 and is probably better than DUKE was!
I'm sorry. It's just that nobody else (outside the organization) seems to comprehend this, and it's frustrating.
Anyway Dan is right: As it stands, Kareem Hunt is the third receiver.
...who was "underused" last season my god what's wrong with you people ohmmm...
How close is the safety room to finished? I agree with Dan that the Browns need to draft another one (or more). I specify a Free Safety.
Karl Joseph is young enough to possibly earn a longer contract, but he's not perfect and hasn't been durable. Sandejo is fading into the sunset, and isn't as good at free as at strong. Redwine is promising, but expert consensus says he's better at SS too. Hassel was a linebacker in college. He has the physical tools to play FS, but who knows?
For 2020, the Browns have SS covered in depth, but FS just barely.
Chinn and Dugger are the physical freaks in this draft class. Both project as SS's, but have potential at FS if they can get "smarter", so to speak.
I can't stand that Winfield is only 5'9", but he's like the Honey Badger...
But if the Browns trade OBJ, they might have a shot at Delpit, McKinney, or Davis.
Ok but Chinn is different. Jeremy Chinn lacks "football intelligence"/instincts at this point, per Lance Zierlein, but this is his only weakness.
Chinn is 6'3", 221 lbs, which partly why some scouts have projected him as a linebacker.
Zierlein's analysis describes a strong safety or linebacker who can immediately excel in the NFL if he's not required to diagnose stuff like Schobert does.
I'm fascinated by this guy (nephew of Steve Atwater). Lord Insideous (Belichick) would put him in front of Njoku or Hooper and say "cover him" at first--and (as soon as he caught up with their dirty tricks) he could!
And that's huge in today's NFL. Chinn clocked 4.45 and jumped 41", so he can blitze too.
This is Chinn's floor, ok? His cieling is unknown. He'll naturally get up over 230 lbs or more under Hans and Franz, and his football IQ will improve with experience. (*He's not a "natural" like Schobert, but all defensive players improve in reading offenses with experience*).
Jabrill Peppers famously failed as a Free Safety under Gregg Williams here, but kicked ass as a Strong Safety, see?
Dugger is more like Peppers though...but I digress:
Dan Labbe's last question is who is going to play Right Guard?
I don't know either, but agree with Dan that finding one from outside the organization isn't the "urgent" "desperate" need that some Chicken Littles hallucinate it is.
Zac Jackson (I didn't listen to the podcast) says that the Browns should not trade out of 10th overall.
I vehemently disagree.
There are 7 or 8 Left Tackles who could instantly start here, in this scheme, in this draft class. Not just the top 4 and the rest are bumbs.
Indeed, at least 2 of those in the "2nd tier" LT's have higher cielings than half the first tier!
Zac shouldn't run an NFL team (or business).
The Browns #1 need at Left Tackle + the abundance of Left Tackles in this draft class + a strong QB class screams trade-down for this team at this time!
The Browns are no longer rebuilding, but they're still under construction, and are aiming at sustainable success, Zac.
They can "settle for" just merely an above average as a rookie Left Tackle if it means they can also bring down a stud LB or S or an edge-rusher with upside or a lethal WR or whatever.
Seriously, I know Zac Jackson isn't a dumbass, but saying the Browns shouldn't trade down in 2020 is dumbassitude.
I mean like the Cowboys shouldn't have traded Herchel Walker, or whoever traded Ricky Williams to Mike Ditka shouldn't have done that.
Anyhoo YOU STAND CORRECTED
THIS JUST IN:
The Browns should sign Everson Griffin instead of Jadeveon Clowney because Griffin Knows Stefanski and Joe Woods.
Period.
Wtf are you editors thinking? He's your nephew, right? The movie "Idiocracy" was prophetic. I can see why I don't fit.
Sunday, March 29, 2020
"OBJ and Kareem Hunt are Available." -Captain Obvious-
No offense to MKC, but the Browns tendered Kareem Hunt in order to make sure that if they lost him, they could get a 2nd round pick for him.
They paid up for Austin Hooper and signed fullback Janovich. Kareem Hunt is now more valuable to the Browns as an asset they can convert than as a player.
While if he remains on the roster, they will of course find ways to exploit his talent, they would essentially be renting him for one season and then letting him walk for nothing.
So in answer to the guy who asked Mary Kay if the Browns would consider trading Kareem Hunt on draft day, the corrected answer is obviously yes.
Ellis L Williams is often fulla beans, but is correct that the new Browns are playing chess, while MKC thinks they're playing checkers.
If you think that OBJ is untouchable, Olivier Vernon at his current salary is a viable option, and Kareem Hunt will not be traded, you are playing checkers.
While the 2020 Browns have a good chance to contend (and are no longer in rebuild mode), they aren't where they need to be yet.
They have balloon payments coming up on a boatload of talent, and the only way to build a sustainable winner is through the draft. They will take every opportunity to get more high draft picks.
Jeez I feel like Captain Obvious here!
Pete Smith states the obvious too: Trading for Trent Williams would be stupid.
And who told this writer in New England that the Browns seem to have "moved on" from Njoku?
Freddie Kitchens had a Dog House the size of San Quentin, and Njoku was one of the inmates. 2 of the 3 other players Dudukovich mentions were drafted by the previous Front Office HMMMM...
Was it Kitchens' Doghouse, or Dorsey's?
Anyway there are new guys here now, so quit assuming...I give up...
Pete Smith states the obvious too: Trading for Trent Williams would be stupid.
And who told this writer in New England that the Browns seem to have "moved on" from Njoku?
Freddie Kitchens had a Dog House the size of San Quentin, and Njoku was one of the inmates. 2 of the 3 other players Dudukovich mentions were drafted by the previous Front Office HMMMM...
Was it Kitchens' Doghouse, or Dorsey's?
Anyway there are new guys here now, so quit assuming...I give up...
Friday, March 27, 2020
Free Agent EDGE, Correcting More Simpletonian Bad Browns Analyisis
PFF's Sam Monson says that former Vikings EDGE Everson Griffen could be had for a song on a one-year deal like the ones that secured 2 safeties, a DT, etc.
You guys know me: I don't like signing old geezers as a rule, but in this case they're not paying much, and it's only for one year.
Griffen was still playing at a high level in 2019 with 8 sacks. Like the much, much younger Jadeveon Clowney, he wants top dollar, but the market is teaching him a lesson about that.
While I would personally like to land the 27 year-old Clowney for Olivier Vernon money longer-term, Griffen for a lot less is more doable.
I actually like that Hubbard renegotiated in order to stick around as a swing tackle. This was actually his role (as well as backing up at guard) for the Steelers before John Dorsey paid him like a top 5 Right Tackle (wow, John...) Hubbard is not a good starter, but he's good depth.
Pete Smith has been all over the Browns lately (almost like me), and is the most educational guy I've found in re football and individual players.
In the linked article, he talks about how two (pass-catching) Tight Ends make the offense way more flexible.
My regulars won't find anything new in this article, but I just can't help showing you this stuff just to say "See? That's what I said last year and when they signed Hooper! See?"
Jake DelHomme really only stated the obvious when he said that Kevin Stefanski wouldn't hesitate to replace Baker Mayfield with Case Keenum if Baker were to stink up the joint (again).
For some guys (like Chad Porto), Keenum is a mediocre Quarterback who got lucky with a loaded Vikings offense and defense for one season, then fell on his face in Denver.
They certainly make some valid points. Case Keenum can't carry a team on his shoulders, but if you support him, he executes as well as anyone.
Keenum executed for the Vikings in a nearly identical system with similar talent. He had a carreer year then, and could have a carreer year again in Cleveland. Tell me why he wouldn't.
Jake isn't predicting another Mayfield crapfest, of course. He expects Baker to thrive. But he and other experts who are objective think Keenum is the perfect insurance policy for the 2020 Browns.
Pete Smith strikes again with a new mock draft.
Everybody else has the Browns simply drafting a Left Tackle at 10th overall, but here they trade with the Dolphins for their 26th overall, 24th in the 2nd, and 6th in the 3rd round.
There are a few more prominant Left Tackles who could be there at 26th, but Pete picks Ezra Cleveland.
The highest I've found Cleveland listed among tackles was 11th (Walter Football), and I suspect that 10 won't go before 26th, so I guess Pete just disagrees with the consensus here.
I'm not qualified to argue, but I would place a freindly wager with Pete that 3 years from now Josh Jones will be better than Cleveland.
Anyway, Ezra Cleveland is a very talented and promising player, and is 99.5% likely to be there at 26th, so I would roll with that.
Cleveland has some work to do, both technically and mentally, but Pete figures Coach Callahan is the perfect guy to whip him into shape.
Like I have 20 or so times, Pete tells you that the 2020 Stefanski Browns don't need a Joe Thomas.
This is not a drop-back vertical offense. The deep passes come off play-action. This is why a trade-down like this (in this particular draft class) is a definite option.
I won't get into the rest of Pete's picks here, since I didn't like them much, and I think this mock prededed the FA signings of 2 safeties.
Vincent Frank writes a good article on why he thinks the Browns rebuild has failed.
He makes a good case, but it's all out of context.
Sashi Brown was here for 2 seasons, then was fired. Paul DePodesta remained on the staff, but was locked up in the basement.
Dorsey had his own philosophy and way of doing things, and changed the process. Dorsey was responsible for Hubbard and his contract, Austin Corbett, Chad Thomas, (and yes Chubb, Ward, Mayfield, Avery---who he got rid of--)...
And more importantly, John Dorsey threw away Nassib, Ogbah, Orchard, Shelton, Fells, etc.
Vincent doesn't bother separating one regime from the next, and ignores the human hand grenade that kicked the majority of Brown's draft picks to the curb in 2018, and overpaid journeyman free agents.
The "rebuild" was over the moment Haslam hired John Dorsey.
Look at this: We got Pegleg Vernon at 15.25 mil/year instead of Emmanuel Ogbah. We HOPE we just signed a guy like Shelton. Where is DeValve? We still need a long-term Jabrill Peppers, and what would Berry have done with the first and third rounder Dorsey traded away? Where is Zeitler?
The "rebuild has failed"!?!
Better late than never, it was good ole Pete Smith who tipped me off about the compensatory picks part of the one year free agent signings on defense.
I'm not sure of the exact formula (niether is Bill Polian or anybody else), but when a team loses a player to free agency, and doesn't replace him with a new free agent, they get a compensatory pick.
*this only applies to vested players, I think*
Where they were drafted and how much they played matters. The highest compensatory picks are at the bottom of the third round, and many are bottom 4th-rounders.
Note the rounds in which some of these one-year bandaids were signed.
Meanwhile, I stand corrected on Sandejo; he's a good FREE Safety, so safety is covered (including quality depth) heading into the draft.
Linebacker is trickier. Mack Wilson is a 3-down guy, but Goodson and Takitaki are mainly run-stuffers.
Most fans think in labels, so they don't get that "SS" JT Hassel was a linebacker in college, that the nickel is the default defense in the modern NFL, and nickel linebackers are mostly safeties.
After Isaiah Simmons, there are 4 other linebackers who can cover, and none of them project in the first round.
Ok I just read a crappy article I need to correct:
1: You can't run a 2-TE offense without 2 Tight Ends.
2: You can't replace a Kareem Hunt with a journeyman Tight End.
3: You can't play a Tight End with a broken wrist.
4: Baker Mayfield historically converts 3rd and longs; delivers under pressure.
Baker Mayfield was forcing passes to OBJ and personally screwed up in his second season. The defense sucked too.
Freddie Kitchens made some mistakes yeah, but only simpletonians blame it all on him.
In point of fact, as interim OC in 2018, Kitchens ran 2-TE offenses as often as anybody in the NFL. In 2019, John Dorsey traded for OBJ H I N T. H I N T, Njoku broke his wrist, Hunt was active for the last 8 games, and Greg Robinson well...
If John Dorsey hadn't brought OBJ here (and OBJ hadn't played hurt the whole season)...
Starting over: If Zeitler had been here, the Browns would have returned one of the best Offensive Lines in the NFL. If Jabrill Peppers had been here, the defense wouldn't have been trampled so badly.
Who would Dorsey have drafted 17th overall? A Wide Receiver maybe? An OT? An EDGE?
Mayfield would have done what he did as a rookie: Hit the open receiver, quickly, period.
I can't prove this, but believe that John Dorsey pressured Kitchens to feature OBJ. Kitchens, who OWED Dorsey big-time, altered his scheme to make this happen.
Baker Mayfield cooperated. He shouldn't have. He probably wanted to raise hell, but was already under fire from fans just for doing some stupid commercials and duking it out with Grossi and stuff.
It screwed him up! It was mostly Dorsey, ok? Then it was Freddie and yes, Baker Mayfield himself.
The good news is that the new regime isn't invested in OBJ and the new coach isn't either.
Stefanski's scheme is even better for Mayfield than it was for Kirk Cousins, he just got Conklin and Hooper, and he's about to get a stud Left Tackle.
Power ranking the Browns 21st at this point doesn't bother me that much. Simpletonian analysis drives me nuts.
YOU STAND CORRECTED
You guys know me: I don't like signing old geezers as a rule, but in this case they're not paying much, and it's only for one year.
Griffen was still playing at a high level in 2019 with 8 sacks. Like the much, much younger Jadeveon Clowney, he wants top dollar, but the market is teaching him a lesson about that.
While I would personally like to land the 27 year-old Clowney for Olivier Vernon money longer-term, Griffen for a lot less is more doable.
I actually like that Hubbard renegotiated in order to stick around as a swing tackle. This was actually his role (as well as backing up at guard) for the Steelers before John Dorsey paid him like a top 5 Right Tackle (wow, John...) Hubbard is not a good starter, but he's good depth.
Pete Smith has been all over the Browns lately (almost like me), and is the most educational guy I've found in re football and individual players.
In the linked article, he talks about how two (pass-catching) Tight Ends make the offense way more flexible.
My regulars won't find anything new in this article, but I just can't help showing you this stuff just to say "See? That's what I said last year and when they signed Hooper! See?"
Jake DelHomme really only stated the obvious when he said that Kevin Stefanski wouldn't hesitate to replace Baker Mayfield with Case Keenum if Baker were to stink up the joint (again).
For some guys (like Chad Porto), Keenum is a mediocre Quarterback who got lucky with a loaded Vikings offense and defense for one season, then fell on his face in Denver.
They certainly make some valid points. Case Keenum can't carry a team on his shoulders, but if you support him, he executes as well as anyone.
Keenum executed for the Vikings in a nearly identical system with similar talent. He had a carreer year then, and could have a carreer year again in Cleveland. Tell me why he wouldn't.
Jake isn't predicting another Mayfield crapfest, of course. He expects Baker to thrive. But he and other experts who are objective think Keenum is the perfect insurance policy for the 2020 Browns.
Pete Smith strikes again with a new mock draft.
Everybody else has the Browns simply drafting a Left Tackle at 10th overall, but here they trade with the Dolphins for their 26th overall, 24th in the 2nd, and 6th in the 3rd round.
There are a few more prominant Left Tackles who could be there at 26th, but Pete picks Ezra Cleveland.
The highest I've found Cleveland listed among tackles was 11th (Walter Football), and I suspect that 10 won't go before 26th, so I guess Pete just disagrees with the consensus here.
I'm not qualified to argue, but I would place a freindly wager with Pete that 3 years from now Josh Jones will be better than Cleveland.
Anyway, Ezra Cleveland is a very talented and promising player, and is 99.5% likely to be there at 26th, so I would roll with that.
Cleveland has some work to do, both technically and mentally, but Pete figures Coach Callahan is the perfect guy to whip him into shape.
Like I have 20 or so times, Pete tells you that the 2020 Stefanski Browns don't need a Joe Thomas.
This is not a drop-back vertical offense. The deep passes come off play-action. This is why a trade-down like this (in this particular draft class) is a definite option.
I won't get into the rest of Pete's picks here, since I didn't like them much, and I think this mock prededed the FA signings of 2 safeties.
Vincent Frank writes a good article on why he thinks the Browns rebuild has failed.
He makes a good case, but it's all out of context.
Sashi Brown was here for 2 seasons, then was fired. Paul DePodesta remained on the staff, but was locked up in the basement.
Dorsey had his own philosophy and way of doing things, and changed the process. Dorsey was responsible for Hubbard and his contract, Austin Corbett, Chad Thomas, (and yes Chubb, Ward, Mayfield, Avery---who he got rid of--)...
And more importantly, John Dorsey threw away Nassib, Ogbah, Orchard, Shelton, Fells, etc.
Vincent doesn't bother separating one regime from the next, and ignores the human hand grenade that kicked the majority of Brown's draft picks to the curb in 2018, and overpaid journeyman free agents.
The "rebuild" was over the moment Haslam hired John Dorsey.
Look at this: We got Pegleg Vernon at 15.25 mil/year instead of Emmanuel Ogbah. We HOPE we just signed a guy like Shelton. Where is DeValve? We still need a long-term Jabrill Peppers, and what would Berry have done with the first and third rounder Dorsey traded away? Where is Zeitler?
The "rebuild has failed"!?!
Better late than never, it was good ole Pete Smith who tipped me off about the compensatory picks part of the one year free agent signings on defense.
I'm not sure of the exact formula (niether is Bill Polian or anybody else), but when a team loses a player to free agency, and doesn't replace him with a new free agent, they get a compensatory pick.
*this only applies to vested players, I think*
Where they were drafted and how much they played matters. The highest compensatory picks are at the bottom of the third round, and many are bottom 4th-rounders.
Note the rounds in which some of these one-year bandaids were signed.
Meanwhile, I stand corrected on Sandejo; he's a good FREE Safety, so safety is covered (including quality depth) heading into the draft.
Linebacker is trickier. Mack Wilson is a 3-down guy, but Goodson and Takitaki are mainly run-stuffers.
Most fans think in labels, so they don't get that "SS" JT Hassel was a linebacker in college, that the nickel is the default defense in the modern NFL, and nickel linebackers are mostly safeties.
After Isaiah Simmons, there are 4 other linebackers who can cover, and none of them project in the first round.
Ok I just read a crappy article I need to correct:
1: You can't run a 2-TE offense without 2 Tight Ends.
2: You can't replace a Kareem Hunt with a journeyman Tight End.
3: You can't play a Tight End with a broken wrist.
4: Baker Mayfield historically converts 3rd and longs; delivers under pressure.
Baker Mayfield was forcing passes to OBJ and personally screwed up in his second season. The defense sucked too.
Freddie Kitchens made some mistakes yeah, but only simpletonians blame it all on him.
In point of fact, as interim OC in 2018, Kitchens ran 2-TE offenses as often as anybody in the NFL. In 2019, John Dorsey traded for OBJ H I N T. H I N T, Njoku broke his wrist, Hunt was active for the last 8 games, and Greg Robinson well...
If John Dorsey hadn't brought OBJ here (and OBJ hadn't played hurt the whole season)...
Starting over: If Zeitler had been here, the Browns would have returned one of the best Offensive Lines in the NFL. If Jabrill Peppers had been here, the defense wouldn't have been trampled so badly.
Who would Dorsey have drafted 17th overall? A Wide Receiver maybe? An OT? An EDGE?
Mayfield would have done what he did as a rookie: Hit the open receiver, quickly, period.
I can't prove this, but believe that John Dorsey pressured Kitchens to feature OBJ. Kitchens, who OWED Dorsey big-time, altered his scheme to make this happen.
Baker Mayfield cooperated. He shouldn't have. He probably wanted to raise hell, but was already under fire from fans just for doing some stupid commercials and duking it out with Grossi and stuff.
It screwed him up! It was mostly Dorsey, ok? Then it was Freddie and yes, Baker Mayfield himself.
The good news is that the new regime isn't invested in OBJ and the new coach isn't either.
Stefanski's scheme is even better for Mayfield than it was for Kirk Cousins, he just got Conklin and Hooper, and he's about to get a stud Left Tackle.
Power ranking the Browns 21st at this point doesn't bother me that much. Simpletonian analysis drives me nuts.
YOU STAND CORRECTED
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Correcting the Celeveland Browns Pundits and Combatting Disinformation
1: Trent Williams is still an option for the Browns. On a 2 or less year contract for 15 mil year with no more than 20 mil guaranteed.
In other words, NOT.
2: Jadeveon Clowney is a possibility. If he comes down to Olivier Vernon's current price for 1-2 years with less than 20 mil guaranteed.
Doubtful, but possible.
3: The 1-year Hold the Fort contracts are partly about compensatory picks (see Patriots).
4: I am confiscating the word "desperate". It will be returned to you when you prove you can use it responsibly (especially as it applies to Browns linebackers).
Get a grip!
In other words, NOT.
2: Jadeveon Clowney is a possibility. If he comes down to Olivier Vernon's current price for 1-2 years with less than 20 mil guaranteed.
Doubtful, but possible.
3: The 1-year Hold the Fort contracts are partly about compensatory picks (see Patriots).
4: I am confiscating the word "desperate". It will be returned to you when you prove you can use it responsibly (especially as it applies to Browns linebackers).
Get a grip!
Friday, March 20, 2020
Hold the Fort Guys, Core Players, Strategery, and the Cleveland Browns
1: Clay Matthews III is 33 years old. He did have 10 sacks and 50 tackles with the Rams last season, so he probably has some tread left.
The only way that DePoBerry would "bring him home" would be on a one year contract that he'd probably find insulting.
And listen, Kiddies: Clay III never played for the Browns. His father, should-be Hall of Famer Clay Jr did...(man, what a gene pool.)
The Browns 2020 FA signings so far are different types.
Conklin, Hooper, and Janovich are core players. They join Chubb, Bitonio, Mayfield, Landry, and Tretter on offense.
I left out OBJ because he is on the trading block (shhh!) and Njoku because, while he will be extended, they will field trade offers for him as well. And Kareem Hunt could well be traded too.
A few notes here: Javovich is ideal for Stefanski to run the offense he ran in Minnesota last season with. While Kareem Hunt is a much more of a playmaker, he can't block as well, and (after 2020) will be massively cheaper.
The Janovich trade makes it clear to me that Kevin Stefanski (perhaps in consultation with DePoBerry) isn't determined to keep the Hunt/Chubb 2-back going.
Economically, it makes sense. And this is why the second round tender they put on Hunt was really smart.
And give John Dorsey credit for this one: He drafted Hunt (cheap). Then he signed him almost for free, and Andrew Berry is very happy about that right now.
If somebody makes Hunt a serious offer, and the Browns don't match, it's a free second round pick.
Janovich is a bargain for what he can do. Here, he will catch a lot more passes than he ever has before, and blocking fullbacks are always undervalued.
That's "alignment", all right! Let everybody else pay twice as much for a third wide receiver--we'll take the fullback.
The Browns did technically overpay for Austin Hooper, but not by all that much. Two years from now, he'll be a "bargain" on this contract.
PFF says he doesn't do well vs man coverage, but Ellis L Williams explains how tough it's going to be for opposing defenses to match up in man vs Hooper (or any non-wr) in the Stefanski offense.
He takes us all the way back to when Kyle Shanahan ran Atlanta's offense, and what Hooper did then.
I want to add that Kyle didn't have a Njoku or a Chubb on that team.
The most important thing about Austin Hooper is that he will be where he is supposed to be, when he is supposed to be there. (In fact, Ellis seems to think that he's kind of obsessive about it, and doesn't deviate from his routes by a step or 2 even when he should).
David Njoku (and everybody else) needs to get close to that outstanding route discipline (and ability to read coverage). That's another reason why you pay a little more for an Austin Hooper, see?
Timing offense. Remember?
The other free agents so far are all "Hold the Fort" guys (as Bill Parcells called them).
DT/NT Andrew Billings was a sneaky-good addition. He shouldn't start in the modern NFL, but definitely needs to be near the center in short-yardage situations (instead of Ogunjobi). He may ultimately play around 30% of the snaps, and get Richardson and Ogunjobi some time off.
SS Karl Joseph is another young guy on a "prove it" deal. Karl doesn't cover well, but excels vs the run. He's really kind of a really tiny linebacker.
He never lived up to his first round draft status, and gets hurt all the time, but Defensive Coordinators find ways to use guys like this...
...I don't understand it as well as I should yet. I mean, a Strong Safety who is smaller than many cornerbacks and is weak in coverage but stops the run?
I'll get back to you on it.
SS Andrew Sedejo is 32 but has become good all around. SS looks adequately covered for one season (especially the tackling part).
Erreh...Sedejo isn't a free safety, by the way. Free safety is not covered, ok?
32 year old Vikings DE Everson Griffin is a real possibility as another Hold the Fort guy.
This could all come together nicely ahead of and during the Draft:
1: OBJ should fetch at least a low 1st round pick in a trade.
2: Kareem Hunt will probably be signed away from the Browns and return a 2nd round pick.
*pause: At this point, I'll wildly guess that the Browns have #10, #18, 10 and 20 in the second round, and their 2 3rd round picks. That's SIX top 100 picks*
Hmm...there are a lot of variables here. 4 QBs could conceivably go in the top 9 (more realisticly only 2- maybe 3).
Young is gone, you people, so just forget about him. Nobody will trade down from that beast.
However, Superfreak (I just invented that position btw) Isaiah Simmons could be there at 7th overall, and the Browns could trade up for him.
It would cost the top 2nd round pick, even if any team was willing to pass Simmons up.
But the Browns could pull this off, and still get a stud Left Tackle with the OBJ pick, and have lots of ammo to move up for a stud Free Safety (if neccessary) in the 2nd round.
OR, they could trade down from 10th overall. No Simmons, but still the stud Left Tackle.
Having secured 18th overall, they can simply take the best deal in this scenario. This definitely includes 2021 and 2022 draft picks, 1 and 2 rounds higher respectively.
A key to what dumbasses call "munnyball" is long-term planning.
Coaches need immediate results, because they get fired so often. GMs think longer-term, but they still get desperate after a couple bad seasons.
(Redundancy alert): They will trade a next year 2nd rounder for a this year 3rd rounder in a heartbeat, since they're libel to have been fired next year anyway, see?
Exploiting market flaws like these is what Paul DePodesta does. He most famously did it with the double trade-down from Carson Wentz.
The eventual results (after subsequent trades etc) yielded (I think but could be wrong) 22 picks over the next 3 drafts.
Ahh, shaddap! DePodesta wasn't actually picking those players, ok? He's the strategy guy--not the personnel guy.
DePo got the Browns all those draft picks, and other people squandered the majority of them DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Anyway, assumimg that the Browns do the obvious with Hunt and OBJ..waitaminnit:
OBJ for Anthony Harris is a real possibility. The Vikings just lost Stefon Diggs to free agency. They're in "win now" mode. OBJ is under contract for 2 more seasons, is better than Diggs, and they know they can't afford Harris anymore (they got cap issues).
The Browns can afford to make Harris the highest paid FS on a multi-year contract. The Vikings would have to pay around 3.5 mil more for OBJ in 2020, but it's an elite WR vs an elite FS, and with Kubiak running the Vikings offense now---
Ok too deep, but there's a very real player-for-player trade possibility here.
No I don't hate OBJ, and in fact think the "diva" label on him is bullshit. He's NOT a "me-me-me" guy. He just wants to WIN, and is a whole lot smarter (at least in football) than anybody except me and his teammates give him credit for.
He played though a core muscle injury (I suspect groin) in 2019, and has now had surgery on it. He should be 100% in 2021.
Sigh...yes the offensive schemes between the Browns and Vikings will be nearly identical, but the Browns didn't just lose Stefon Diggs, and aren't in cap hell.
Just spitballin here.
Anyway now you guys know how to think about thinking outside the box, hopefully...
Nah! Well stay tuned I'll do it for you. Okbye.
The only way that DePoBerry would "bring him home" would be on a one year contract that he'd probably find insulting.
And listen, Kiddies: Clay III never played for the Browns. His father, should-be Hall of Famer Clay Jr did...(man, what a gene pool.)
The Browns 2020 FA signings so far are different types.
Conklin, Hooper, and Janovich are core players. They join Chubb, Bitonio, Mayfield, Landry, and Tretter on offense.
I left out OBJ because he is on the trading block (shhh!) and Njoku because, while he will be extended, they will field trade offers for him as well. And Kareem Hunt could well be traded too.
A few notes here: Javovich is ideal for Stefanski to run the offense he ran in Minnesota last season with. While Kareem Hunt is a much more of a playmaker, he can't block as well, and (after 2020) will be massively cheaper.
The Janovich trade makes it clear to me that Kevin Stefanski (perhaps in consultation with DePoBerry) isn't determined to keep the Hunt/Chubb 2-back going.
Economically, it makes sense. And this is why the second round tender they put on Hunt was really smart.
And give John Dorsey credit for this one: He drafted Hunt (cheap). Then he signed him almost for free, and Andrew Berry is very happy about that right now.
If somebody makes Hunt a serious offer, and the Browns don't match, it's a free second round pick.
Janovich is a bargain for what he can do. Here, he will catch a lot more passes than he ever has before, and blocking fullbacks are always undervalued.
That's "alignment", all right! Let everybody else pay twice as much for a third wide receiver--we'll take the fullback.
The Browns did technically overpay for Austin Hooper, but not by all that much. Two years from now, he'll be a "bargain" on this contract.
PFF says he doesn't do well vs man coverage, but Ellis L Williams explains how tough it's going to be for opposing defenses to match up in man vs Hooper (or any non-wr) in the Stefanski offense.
He takes us all the way back to when Kyle Shanahan ran Atlanta's offense, and what Hooper did then.
I want to add that Kyle didn't have a Njoku or a Chubb on that team.
The most important thing about Austin Hooper is that he will be where he is supposed to be, when he is supposed to be there. (In fact, Ellis seems to think that he's kind of obsessive about it, and doesn't deviate from his routes by a step or 2 even when he should).
David Njoku (and everybody else) needs to get close to that outstanding route discipline (and ability to read coverage). That's another reason why you pay a little more for an Austin Hooper, see?
Timing offense. Remember?
The other free agents so far are all "Hold the Fort" guys (as Bill Parcells called them).
DT/NT Andrew Billings was a sneaky-good addition. He shouldn't start in the modern NFL, but definitely needs to be near the center in short-yardage situations (instead of Ogunjobi). He may ultimately play around 30% of the snaps, and get Richardson and Ogunjobi some time off.
SS Karl Joseph is another young guy on a "prove it" deal. Karl doesn't cover well, but excels vs the run. He's really kind of a really tiny linebacker.
He never lived up to his first round draft status, and gets hurt all the time, but Defensive Coordinators find ways to use guys like this...
...I don't understand it as well as I should yet. I mean, a Strong Safety who is smaller than many cornerbacks and is weak in coverage but stops the run?
I'll get back to you on it.
SS Andrew Sedejo is 32 but has become good all around. SS looks adequately covered for one season (especially the tackling part).
Erreh...Sedejo isn't a free safety, by the way. Free safety is not covered, ok?
32 year old Vikings DE Everson Griffin is a real possibility as another Hold the Fort guy.
This could all come together nicely ahead of and during the Draft:
1: OBJ should fetch at least a low 1st round pick in a trade.
2: Kareem Hunt will probably be signed away from the Browns and return a 2nd round pick.
*pause: At this point, I'll wildly guess that the Browns have #10, #18, 10 and 20 in the second round, and their 2 3rd round picks. That's SIX top 100 picks*
Hmm...there are a lot of variables here. 4 QBs could conceivably go in the top 9 (more realisticly only 2- maybe 3).
Young is gone, you people, so just forget about him. Nobody will trade down from that beast.
However, Superfreak (I just invented that position btw) Isaiah Simmons could be there at 7th overall, and the Browns could trade up for him.
It would cost the top 2nd round pick, even if any team was willing to pass Simmons up.
But the Browns could pull this off, and still get a stud Left Tackle with the OBJ pick, and have lots of ammo to move up for a stud Free Safety (if neccessary) in the 2nd round.
OR, they could trade down from 10th overall. No Simmons, but still the stud Left Tackle.
Having secured 18th overall, they can simply take the best deal in this scenario. This definitely includes 2021 and 2022 draft picks, 1 and 2 rounds higher respectively.
A key to what dumbasses call "munnyball" is long-term planning.
Coaches need immediate results, because they get fired so often. GMs think longer-term, but they still get desperate after a couple bad seasons.
(Redundancy alert): They will trade a next year 2nd rounder for a this year 3rd rounder in a heartbeat, since they're libel to have been fired next year anyway, see?
Exploiting market flaws like these is what Paul DePodesta does. He most famously did it with the double trade-down from Carson Wentz.
The eventual results (after subsequent trades etc) yielded (I think but could be wrong) 22 picks over the next 3 drafts.
Ahh, shaddap! DePodesta wasn't actually picking those players, ok? He's the strategy guy--not the personnel guy.
DePo got the Browns all those draft picks, and other people squandered the majority of them DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Anyway, assumimg that the Browns do the obvious with Hunt and OBJ..waitaminnit:
OBJ for Anthony Harris is a real possibility. The Vikings just lost Stefon Diggs to free agency. They're in "win now" mode. OBJ is under contract for 2 more seasons, is better than Diggs, and they know they can't afford Harris anymore (they got cap issues).
The Browns can afford to make Harris the highest paid FS on a multi-year contract. The Vikings would have to pay around 3.5 mil more for OBJ in 2020, but it's an elite WR vs an elite FS, and with Kubiak running the Vikings offense now---
Ok too deep, but there's a very real player-for-player trade possibility here.
No I don't hate OBJ, and in fact think the "diva" label on him is bullshit. He's NOT a "me-me-me" guy. He just wants to WIN, and is a whole lot smarter (at least in football) than anybody except me and his teammates give him credit for.
He played though a core muscle injury (I suspect groin) in 2019, and has now had surgery on it. He should be 100% in 2021.
Sigh...yes the offensive schemes between the Browns and Vikings will be nearly identical, but the Browns didn't just lose Stefon Diggs, and aren't in cap hell.
Just spitballin here.
Anyway now you guys know how to think about thinking outside the box, hopefully...
Nah! Well stay tuned I'll do it for you. Okbye.
Monday, March 16, 2020
Andrew Berry: You're Welcome! Browns New Front Office Almost as Smart as My Humble Self! So Far so Great!!!
It's pretty obvious that Andrew Berry reads this Blog, as he just signed Jack Conklin and Austin Hooper. Unfortunately, those Steeler bastids franchised Bud Dupree, so he's off the table.
Conklin is here for 3 years, 42 mil total, and (sure enough) Andy took my advice (blush-blush) and loaded 20 mil of that into 2020.
This big up-front pay day may be why Conklin signed so quickly for less than market value.
By the way, that's business analytics.
Mitch Zoloty may have covered some of the other reasons long before this signing was made (ie how well he fits a Shanahan blocking scheme).
This may not be over, as Callahan might be wondering if he can play on the left side (although that seems unlikely, given the contract).
Conklin is a MASSIVE upgrade, and the Browns got him cheap. I'm frankly stunned.
Conklin shouldn't overshadow the Austin Hooper deal. They locked Hooper up for 4 years, 44 mil. I can promise you that that contract was front-loaded as well.
Hooper isn't Ertz or Dissley, but he is nearly 90% reliable as a receiver. PFF grades him mediocre as a run blocker, but pretty good in pass protection, and borderline elite as a receiver.
Hooper will challenge Rodney Njokufield, but Kevin Stefanski will have them both on the field a lot.
More business analytics: DePodesta nails Hooper down for 4 years, undermines Njoku's leverage (shrinks his Brinks truck), and has great TE insurance!
Meanwhile, Stefanski can run his...
Ok well here, he'll run a cave man offense (a 22) a lot. 2 backs, 2 TEs, and (yes) one real Wide Receiver.
This is almost as unconventional as the Revens' offense, but if you believe that Kevin Stefanski will try to field his best skill players as often as he can, those include Chubb, Hunt, Njoku, and (now) Hooper.
I'm overstating this, of course. This 22 set might only be on the field 30-35% of the time, but that's still very hard to prepare for or stop.
In my wheelhouse: Modern NFL defenses aren't built to stop a 22 offense any more than they were built to stop Lamar Jackson and 3 Tight Ends.
Defenses have to go "big" to match up. But they have to use their top 2 cornerbacks, since coverage is what they do, and they know that ALL of these guys are potential receivers...
Well what would you do? When you see the huddle you see 22 personnel, but when the huddle breaks you could find yourself facing a spread offense, with Njoku and Hunt in the slot or wide...
Mismatches out the yinyang, see?
Now they signed Case Keenum! Wow he's the perfect veteran backup QB, and he can teach his fellow...careful now...erreh...vertically-challenged QB (Baker Mayfield) a thing or 3, and absotively take over if Mayfield gets hurt.
They gave Kareem Hunt a second round tender, and that might not be the end of that. Somebody might actually try to sign Hunt (like Belichick, who as usual drafts low in every round).
That's perfect too, as it compels other teams to do all the negotiating, and the GM can still match the offer.
The worst that can happen now is that Kareem Hunt goes elsewhere and Berry picks up another 2nd round pick.
(That would simplify things for Stefanski, anyway).
Ah here we go: Hooper 4 years, 42 mil, 23 mil guaranteed in the first 2 years. Yep!Moneyball business analytics again! Hoo wooda thunked it?
Baker Mayfield will need surgery to remove the grin from his face.
This isn't over, of course, but (yes analytics again) DePoBerry took Tight End and Right Tackle off their draft board today.
I guarantee you that they will sign at least one Safety and nickel cornerback shortly, and an EDGE guy of some sort ahead of the draft.
I’m not Peter Smith or Jake Burns here, and could be fulla beans, but it seems to me that Austin Hooper and Rodney Njokufield block better in space than they do in line (like all athletic Tight Ends do), and am looking forward to seeing this wide zone in action with the two of them and Conklin running around and hitting people.
You probably don’t get this yet, but the “mismatches” aren’t all in coverage. Here, it means a 6’4” 250 lb dude vs shorter, lighter people, usually running in the same direction—with the defenders at a distinct disadvantage.
Austin Hooper and Jack Conklin...wow.
Wow. So far, so great.
Conklin is here for 3 years, 42 mil total, and (sure enough) Andy took my advice (blush-blush) and loaded 20 mil of that into 2020.
This big up-front pay day may be why Conklin signed so quickly for less than market value.
By the way, that's business analytics.
Mitch Zoloty may have covered some of the other reasons long before this signing was made (ie how well he fits a Shanahan blocking scheme).
This may not be over, as Callahan might be wondering if he can play on the left side (although that seems unlikely, given the contract).
Conklin is a MASSIVE upgrade, and the Browns got him cheap. I'm frankly stunned.
Conklin shouldn't overshadow the Austin Hooper deal. They locked Hooper up for 4 years, 44 mil. I can promise you that that contract was front-loaded as well.
Hooper isn't Ertz or Dissley, but he is nearly 90% reliable as a receiver. PFF grades him mediocre as a run blocker, but pretty good in pass protection, and borderline elite as a receiver.
Hooper will challenge Rodney Njokufield, but Kevin Stefanski will have them both on the field a lot.
More business analytics: DePodesta nails Hooper down for 4 years, undermines Njoku's leverage (shrinks his Brinks truck), and has great TE insurance!
Meanwhile, Stefanski can run his...
Ok well here, he'll run a cave man offense (a 22) a lot. 2 backs, 2 TEs, and (yes) one real Wide Receiver.
This is almost as unconventional as the Revens' offense, but if you believe that Kevin Stefanski will try to field his best skill players as often as he can, those include Chubb, Hunt, Njoku, and (now) Hooper.
I'm overstating this, of course. This 22 set might only be on the field 30-35% of the time, but that's still very hard to prepare for or stop.
In my wheelhouse: Modern NFL defenses aren't built to stop a 22 offense any more than they were built to stop Lamar Jackson and 3 Tight Ends.
Defenses have to go "big" to match up. But they have to use their top 2 cornerbacks, since coverage is what they do, and they know that ALL of these guys are potential receivers...
Well what would you do? When you see the huddle you see 22 personnel, but when the huddle breaks you could find yourself facing a spread offense, with Njoku and Hunt in the slot or wide...
Mismatches out the yinyang, see?
Now they signed Case Keenum! Wow he's the perfect veteran backup QB, and he can teach his fellow...careful now...erreh...vertically-challenged QB (Baker Mayfield) a thing or 3, and absotively take over if Mayfield gets hurt.
They gave Kareem Hunt a second round tender, and that might not be the end of that. Somebody might actually try to sign Hunt (like Belichick, who as usual drafts low in every round).
That's perfect too, as it compels other teams to do all the negotiating, and the GM can still match the offer.
The worst that can happen now is that Kareem Hunt goes elsewhere and Berry picks up another 2nd round pick.
(That would simplify things for Stefanski, anyway).
Ah here we go: Hooper 4 years, 42 mil, 23 mil guaranteed in the first 2 years. Yep!
Baker Mayfield will need surgery to remove the grin from his face.
This isn't over, of course, but (yes analytics again) DePoBerry took Tight End and Right Tackle off their draft board today.
I guarantee you that they will sign at least one Safety and nickel cornerback shortly, and an EDGE guy of some sort ahead of the draft.
I’m not Peter Smith or Jake Burns here, and could be fulla beans, but it seems to me that Austin Hooper and Rodney Njokufield block better in space than they do in line (like all athletic Tight Ends do), and am looking forward to seeing this wide zone in action with the two of them and Conklin running around and hitting people.
You probably don’t get this yet, but the “mismatches” aren’t all in coverage. Here, it means a 6’4” 250 lb dude vs shorter, lighter people, usually running in the same direction—with the defenders at a distinct disadvantage.
Austin Hooper and Jack Conklin...wow.
Wow. So far, so great.
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