Saturday, February 2, 2019

Cleveland Browns: the Team DePodesta Built, and John Dorsey the Closet-Nerd

Professor Jon Hartley explains (as I did) how Paul DePodesta's strategy has worked for the Browns.

While hiring Hue Jackson (and then not firing him after one win in two years) was a mistake by Jimmy Haslam, hiring DePodesta was extremely smart.  Jimmy Haslam made a smart move there.  It was smart of Jimmy Haslam to have done that.

Do I need to say it some more?

The talent has been building up under DePodesta, as if in a pressure cooker.

Firing Hue Jackson didn't really do a lot.  Firing Todd Haley released the pent-up pressure.  There was an offensive explosion.

And except for quarterback and some defensive secondary players, that talent was here in 2017.

Randy Gurzi. lists three young Browns who may be ready for breakout seasons in 2019.

Desmond Harrison should be an obvious breakout candidate for anybody with two gliel cells to rub together, but Randy and I seem like the only people in Cleveland who think so.

For the vast majority of you people, his weak performance as a raw, underweight rookie represents his cieling, instead of his floor.  I call these people Memorex Morons.

They're still trying to find another Joe Thomas at number 17.  Harrison is more physically talented than Big Joe was, let alone the weak prospects in this weak left tackle draft class.

Greg Robinson played well, and Dorsey knows he needs to keep the bird in his hand.  There are certainly no guarantees with Harrison...and by the way Robinson is better than all these draftable tackles as well.

Randy's second breakout candidate is WR Derrick Willies.  I concur!

The chemistry thing with Mayfield matters, as Baker worked with him a lot while playing second fiddle to Tyrod Taylor, but I like the fact that he's a legit 6'4" too.

Willies had some issues with drops in college, and ran a 4.57 40, but was great in the rest of his tests, showing outstanding "suddenness" and explosion.

Willies also weighed in at around 210 lbs.  He, like Harrison, will be bigger and stronger entering his second season.

I wonder why Randy mocked a tall wide receiver to the Browns at 17 recently.  Instead of a defensive tackle, edge-rusher, or linebacker.

But then, Randy's top breakout candidate is LINEBACKER Genard Avery (aka Rodney Averyfield).

I appreciate that Randy thinks that Wilks might use him to replace inevitable cap casualty Jamie Collins.  But Randy also thinks Wilks could just put him on the edge permanently as a full-time passrusher.

This is frustrating for me.  As I've repeated at least 20 times, Genard Avery's best comparison is James Harrison, but Wilks runs a 4-3, and these players are not defensive ends.

Avery racked up safety-like speed and quickness scores at the NFL Combine.  He IS the fastest linebacker on the current roster, and for that matter is in a different zip code from James Harrison as an athlete.

Avery is capable of playing any linebacker position in any system, and doing it well.  Wilks will certainly include him in nickel packages, and blitze him a lot, but he's a LOT more than a "specialist".

While Randy's pre-combine mock draft wasn't so great, he nailed these three Browns sleepers.

Avery will almost certainly be a starter at outside linebacker.  Des Harrison will challenge to start at left tackle.  Willies is less predictable, as the Browns have too M A N Y wide receivers already.

You people (and apparently Randy Gurzi) don't seem like great math students, to put it mildly.  Let me channel Paul DePodesta here:

1: Two of the Browns running backs (Hilliard and Duke), and two of the tight ends are effectively wide receivers in spread formations.

2: Landry and Callaway rank highest, and Higgins/Perriman the in the second tier of true wide receivers.

Callaway and Perriman are deep threats.  Perriman and Higgins are big targets.

Randy himself pointed out Willies as a breakout candidate, but I will now add Damion Ratley as another one.

Six.  We are up to six offical wide receivers to go with four unofficial ones.  S I X.  Who do you think they should kick out?

3: For both Monken and Kitchens, a tight end is one of four wide receivers, and a running back is the fifth in empty backfields.  How many wide receivers do you think a team needs? (Sorry to repeat that, but nobody ever gets it the first or second or sixth time).

4: Aaron Rodgers never had a "go-to" wide receiver, nor Brady nor Peyton Manning nor Drew Brees nor Wilson nor any elite quarterback.

Hell, Antonio Brown is running himself out of Pittsburgh because Big Ben throws to Smith-Schuster "too much".

Baker Mayfield is just fine with the guys he has.  I'm pretty sure he'd look at Randy's seven round mock draft and wish he'd taken a defensive tackle in the first round instead.

People talk about "helping" a quarterback, and think that only means more weapons and better left tackles.

DePodesta isn't a true "football guy", but he could tell you that a strong defense is equally as important.  Trying to come back with time running down is not good for any quarterback.

Tom Brady has pulled a ton of those games out, but he's also lost a few, on sacks, deflections, rushed throws;  Tom Brady wants to run and throw high-percentage passes.

So does Mayfield.

The Browns are, in general, in good shape on offense, including at left tackle (assuming they retain Robinson) and wide receiver.

Entering the offseason, Memorex Morons will (out of habit) decry a lack of offensive playmakers (except for Landry, Callaway, Chubb, Njoku, Perriman, Duke, etc), but in the real world that's just a mindless mantra droned out of habit.

Their real needs are at defensive tackle and linebacker.  Cornerback is another area of interest, as TJ Gaines may well leave, and you can't have enough of these guys.

If Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb are in the lead, or at least in a competitive situation,  this offense as-is can be dominant.  Upgrading the defense should be Dorsey's priority this offseason.

But I digress:

Andrew Gribble's 2019 sleepers include scatback Dontrell Hilliard, LB Tanner Vallejo, Willies, and DE/DT Chad Thomas.

I haven't checked Vallejo out much yet, but Randy Gurzi already nominated Willies.

MM's have already written Chad Thomas off, as he barely played as a rookie.  There are other questions about this guy too:

He's already a top DJ in Miami, thought to have a bright future as a producer, or just in that industry.  This is a red flag for me:

If he's not "all-in" on football, he will never be more than a backup.  He was certainly worth a flyer, and does have the requisite tools to excel, but...I dunno...

Dontrell Hilliard is kinda Duke Johnson Lite.  John Dorsey seems to have outscouted the "media" scouts on this guy, as he's become a very good receiver, and makes people miss in the open field.

He's 5'11", so he should come back bigger and stronger (than 196-200 lbs) in 2019.

With deep sadness and regret, I have to suggest this possibility, as Paul DePodesta already has to John Dorsey:

Consider trading Duke Johnson.  Oh stop it...take a pill!

Nobody knew that the Browns would draft Nick Chubb (or that he would be as good as he was) when Duke got extended and paid like a top ten running back.

His current contract is reasonable, considering what he has to offer other teams.  The net savings to the Browns would only be about one mil, but a third round draft pick is not an unreasonable asking price.

Getting outside blind hero-worship and analytics, Duke Johnson deserves to be a starting running back in the NFL, and that aint happening in Cleveland.  If you really like Duke the person, quit fighting me on this.

Terry Pluto wrote an excellent article on why John Dorsey can't try to "buy" a Superbowl right now with all his gobs and gobs of petty cash (see my previous posts).

Dorsey has to budget himself to re-sign guys like Baker Mayfield and Myles Garrett, who (barring injury) will command massive contracts.

Terry also stresses that Dorsey should try to RETAIN current players like Higgins, Perriman, Robinson etc before he looks elsewhere.

Amen, Terry!  Aren't you sick of having good players replaced by new guys who more often than not aren't as good, and as often as not cost even more?

In fairness, Mitchell Schwartze was one of those, and Sashi Brown (or more likely DePodesta) made that stupid call.

(Oh but don't go all Alex Mack on me.  Why you wanna get hurt?  Don't go there.)

Terry also suggests C J Mosely and Jordan Hicks as top free agent targets for Dorsey.  I hear that! Anthony Barr is Terry's third linebacker option.

Terry has his priorities straight (linebacker), but he skips defensive tackle.  All the same, this was a terrific article! I should know, because I wrote it 3, 2, and 1 week ago.

Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry are wandering around Atlanta ahead of the Superbowl "recruiting" pending NFL free agents who are hanging around there too.

The Beckham Jr, Brown, and Bell crap is for publicity, of course, but in reality these guys really are trying to recruit veteran free agents, and I love it.

This is marketing: Look see?  Antonio Brown, Ebineezer Bell, and Beckham Jr said they'd love to play for the Browns after talking to Mayfield and/or Landry!

Everybody with a 3-digit I Q knows that none of these players will be Browns in 2019, but these players are sincere when they say they'd like to play for the Browns (and tell you why).

I've got issues with both Landry and Mayfield personally, as my crickets know, but am 99% certain that they're:

1: Taking one for the team by reaching out to every single high-profile free agent.  I say "taking one for the team" because that is blatently stupid, and even I am laughing at them.

2: Getting these most high-profile players to say why they would like to play for the Browns.

3: Talking to guys like CJ Mosely, Jordan Hicks, Barr etc too.

This, too, is part of what Paul DePodesta does.

I told you, repeatedly, that DePodesta is a top consultant to the biggest businesses on Earth.  If you think he's the geek in "Moneyball", that's a swing and a miss.

Hell, Jimmy Haslam probably hired him to help him build Pilot/Flying J!  For all we know, Paul DePodesta told Jimmy to buy out Flying J...but at any rate, you people need to understand that Paul DePodesta isn't the bucktoothed guy with the pocket protector and beanie hat you think he is...

But I digress: John Dorsey is in charge now, and was irrefutably one of the best GMs in the business until he was inexplicably fired by the Chiefs.

DePodesta was all-in, I guarantee it--even if he and Sashi were buds; business is business.

Jimmy Haslam jumped all over Dorsey.  Another smart move.  It was very smart of Jimmy Haslam to hire John Dorsey.  Also...well anyway back off the Haslam-bashing.

Sorry, you people:

John Dorsey and Paul DePodesta get along fine.  

DEAL with it.
















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