Randy Gurzi lists his top five free agent defensive ends again, and they would all help--at least for one season.
Brandon Graham and Zeke Ansah are up there in years, but this (and Zeke's injuries) should push their prices down.
Plus, they could really luck out: Terrell Suggs is like 75, isn't he?
Randy listed these guys first, because the real (young) studs are Clowney, Lawrence, and Ford.
And it doesn't seem likely that their respective teams will franchise tag them. That (Defensive End) tag is projected to be around 17 million guaranteed bucks.
...I blacked out for a minute but I'm back now: Anyway, the tag is a tool of last resort when applied to a young elite player.
See what happened with Kirk Cousins? The Skins franchised him twice, and his demands became rediculous. He was supposed to take the Vikings to the promised land, wasn't he?
How many of you wanted the Browns to pay that massively inflated salary?
But I digress: If the player is unwilling to accept a contract approximating that kind of money, slapping the tag on him makes it all the more likely that the team will lose him after the franchise season.
You can franchise him again, but a serious raise is built in.
Randy and others feel mildly optimistic about Dee Ford, who Dorsey drafted in the first round.
That will get sticky. The Chiefs are in a great spot to return to the playoffs in 2019, and Ford might like it there.
Unlike in years past, the Browns are a team of choice for homo sapiens free agents, but the Chiefs, Eagles, and Cowboys aren't teams players want to run away from either.
Dorsey drafted Ford, and John does like to mix with his players, but those who think that "loyalty" will influence Ford are misguided.
Those who expect Dorsey to want Ford are on the money. He has a relationship with the player and his agent well-established, so he certainly has an edge.
With all three of Randy's elite young defensive ends, that 17 mil/year franchise number is the ballpark price.
The franchise tag is the average of the top five salaries for a given position. Paul DePodesta (like PFF and Numberfire) would be "expert witnesses" in negotiating the actual contract.
A guy who ranked seventh shouldn't be demanding top five money. A guy who ranked fourth shouldn't expect the median between number three and number two.
Smart players will often trade instant gratification for security. They might accept 14 mil guaranteed in the first year (plus 3 mil in routine bonuses) and 11 mil guaranteed in year 2.
Why? Because even if they suffer a carreer-ending injury in their first training camp, they'll still get all that guaranteed money.
On a four-year contract which an agent proudly says is worth 72 million, the guarantees are often around 42 mil.
If the player earns all his bonusses, he makes 72 mil. If he falls on his face or gets maimed, he makes 42 mil. The contracts are always constructed so that the guarantees (and "dead cap" hits) are front-loaded (like the Collins contract--thank you Sashi Brown).
This benefits the players as well as the teams. Jamie Collins has already been paid his guaranteed money. Jamie is still fairly young, and some team will offer him another 3-plus year contract, front-loaded with yet more guaranteed monies.
Sure, it will be a lot less than what the Browns paid him, but he gets to start over, and make more guaranteed money overall.
One of these top three guys (Ford works for me) could be had for maybe 70 mil over four years, with 40 mil guaranteed, and the whole first year's salary (what the hell 17 mil) guaranteed.
Then 13 mil in 2020, 8 mil in 2021 as salary caps and salaries rise...(this is what Sashi Brown actually did, by the way.)
Dumping Jamie Collins would give Dorsey a safe free agent 2019 budget of around 34-37 mil, so signing one of these top defensive ends to that kind of massive contract would still leave him with around 20 mil for other guys.
As I've repeated repeatedly, John Dorsey probably should target (passrushing) defensive ends in free agency, and defensive tackles and cornerbacks in the draft in 2019.
Gurzi is right: Land one of these top defensive ends in free agency, and with Ogbah in rotation (he has and can play on the weakside too, mind you), this would give Wilks maybe THE best and deepest DE corps in the NFL.
I do like Dee Ford a lot, but check this out: Jadeveon Clowney was the Myles Garrett of his draft class!!!
Clowney didn't do great for a couple seasons, but as Randy points out, the Texans turned him into a linebacker. This would probably have stunted Myles Garrett's growth, as well.
These two players are remarkably similar; I mean like mirror images.
Here, Clowney would be a pure defensive end again! As scary as he's turned out to be with the Texans, he would go apeshit at DE opposite Myles Garrett here!
Clowney also has become a decent linebacker, and Wilks could exploit that. He'd be a curve-ball for opposing offenses.
But bottom line, if Dorsey can bring in Jadeveon Clowney, that's two Myles Garretts on the same defense--scary enough for ya?
The Texans intend to franchise-tag Clowney. as a linebacker for 15 mil, but he has pre-emptively filed a grievance over his designation. He wants the defensive end tag (17 mil).
This gets technical, as Clowney sometimes puts his hand in the dirt, and other times lines up exactly where a defensive end would (except standing up).
Morally, I'm on Clowney's side. The backfield mayhem he causes means more than the label the team stuck on him. If he wins in arbitration, the Texans are less likely to tag him.
Lawyers...
Dan Justik thinks bringing Phil Dawson back would be a good idea.
I thought this was idiotic, until I "heard" Dan out. Phil ought to be cheap, and could both challenge and teach the younger Browns' kickers.
Travis Rodgers cites most of the reasons why the 2019 Browns are ready to sieze the AFC North.
Travis is not only a good analyst, but a good communicator. He doesn't dive as deep as I do, but is no doubt more "readable" for normal people, and gets the important stuff across quickly and clearly (in a light-hearted and entertaining way).
Travis correctly identifies the Ravens (not the Steelers) as the primary threat to the Browns in 2019, and was right about everything else too.
...not that I can't pick at him:
Big Ben is old and beat up, but he's still viable in 2019. And the Steelers will still have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.
Losing Bell is irrelevant. They did fine in 2018 without him...
Still, Travis is right. Losing Antonio Brown will hurt them, they do have cap issues, and (Travis didn't mention this) the Steelers secondary and passrush aint all that either.
Travis scored an absolute bullseye on the Ravens.
The Ravens should come back in 2019 with a top 5 defense, but Lamar Jackson is a wild card, and the Chargers did shut him down in the playoffs.
"Gimmick" is right. Travis nailed this in some detail:
Lamar Jackson is the fastest quarterback in the NFL, but most analysts don't know the difference between speed and athleticism.
Pat Mahomes is the most athletic QB in the NFL, and Wilson is more athletic than Jackson too.
Lamar Jackson has a big arm, but is not very accurate. He does not (so far) read coverage well, and is not a pocket passer, and...well he's not a real quarterback at all.
Harbaugh will remake his whole offense to make the most of Lamar Jackson, and it will be wild and crazy.
Cam Newton won one Superbowl. Every other quarterback since, and for probably over a decade prior, has had a significantly higher completion percentage.
Those who think Lamar is fragile and will get busted up running the ball are clueless, but those who think he will miss open receivers are correct.
As Travis points out, after what Jackson did to the Browns (which he kinda inflated--it wasn't all that), the Chargers stifled him and his offense with 7 in coverage and a 4-man rush.
You can't do this stuff to Baker Mayfield twice in a row (or even for more than the first half of a given game).
But vs Lamar Jackson? YEP!
Baker Mayfield will "solve" the Ravens defense. Wilks will "solve" the wild and crazy (and not very talented) Ravens offense.
Anyway, maybe nobody but Travis Rodgers and I get this yet, but the road to the AFC North goes through Cleveland...NOW.
New Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks says most of the same stuff every DC says, but I'm cautiously optimistic that he will actually live up to his hyperbole.
Stopping the run is about lane-discipline, and (I especially liked this), forcing third-and-longs so you can get "exotic"...well every DC wants that, but I never heard a DC actually state it as a "mission statement".
Wilks will of course be aggressive, but stressed "fundamentals" in his statement.
In 2018, the Browns in general blew a ton of tackles. Joe Schobert was maybe the worst offender.
"Fundamentals" is music to my eyes, but Wilks was a DB and DB Coach, and so is "proper angles".
"Negative plays" on first and second downs sounds a lot better to me than what I hear from every other Coach in the NFL.
And he wants his defense to score points...
That's a clue, people!
Wilks will run a lot of zone coverage inside. He's talking about defenders coming foreward to jump slants and crosses...
I have addressed this in the past, and will in the future, but for now suffice it to say that (given his extant talent) Wilks will "man up" on the perimiter and run zone everywhere else.
...Well you can digest what I gave you here, and return for further enlightenment later okbye.
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