Saturday, February 9, 2019

Bad News for Everybody in the AFC North Except for the Browns

Thanks to Reid Hanson, I now have a good grip on the Run/Pass Option that Todd Monken plans to include in the Browns' evolving offense.

Hue Jackson will probably never run it, as it works best with inside zone-blocking. (As Reid explains, the lateral or slant-type blocks tend to buy the quarterback a few more nanoseconds than (cave) man blocking).

I must add in this context that Nick Chubb is a prototypical one-cut zone runner, and the Browns' guards and center are quite athletic.

For that matter, Rodney DeValvefield isn't a good in-line blocker, but should excel at smashing people in space, and if Desmond Harrison surprises everybody (except me) and wins the starting left tackle position back, zone-blocking is right up his alley too.

The quarterback must obviously make quick decisions post-snap, and (if it's a pass) throw to a "spot" without hesitation.

The zone-blocking scheme sends offensive linemen downfield, and if he hesitates, they become illegal receivers.

It does seem to fit with Monkens' 4-verticals spread scheme, as the receivers are to execute the same routes; it's still timing and reliant on one or zero cuts.

I was especially interested in Hanson's last couple paragraphs: The Eagles, who famously leaned hard on RPOs to win the 2017 Superbowl, in 2018 "faked" RPOs on pass plays to good effect.  (Pederson and co are downright brilliant.  They won't wait for defenses to "catch up" to them.  I hope Freddie and Todd are like that).

RPOs are also custom-made for Freddie Kitchens favorite personnel groupings: "12, 13, and 22" personel.  Freddie likes extra running backs and/or tight ends.

These are big target receivers and extra blockers in space.

Dan Justik lists some cheap one-year "rental" free agents who Dorsey might consider.  These are all guys who were really good, but fell out of favor due to injuries, scheme, coaching changes, or other reasons.  All of them are interesting; like Gregg Robinson and Rashad Perriman were, ya no?

Linebacker Denzel Perriman is especially interesting, but Dan, please...Tyler Eifert?  Why do you hate Seth DeValve so much?

Will Brinson mocks offensive tackle Cody Ford to the Browns.  Per Will, Cody needs a lot of work, and might not even work out at tackle, but he has all the physical tools.

Like Desmond Harrison...who now has a bunch of NFL starts under his belt.

In the vacuum of Brinson's mind, the Browns must be desperate to replace Joe Thomas, and nothing else matters to them.

Astonishing.

The communication glitch that returns my emails and texts as "undeliverable" hasn't been fixed yet, so I need to use this Blog to advise John Dorsey.  (It goes without saying that he reads it):

John should probably extend Briean Boddy-Calhoun.  He can play every secondary position except strong safety.

Calhoun was outstanding in 2017, but mediocre in 2018.  But he's still only 26 years old, so he's libel to bounce right back.  Even if he's at the bottom of the CB/FS depth chart, he's a great "break glass in case of emergency" guy.

He's best covering slot guys, and will compete to again be the top nickel cornerback.

And he will be very cheap.

Releasing Jamie Collins seems obvious, as it will pump the free agent budget up to around 34 million.

Dorsey is right not to spend like a drunken sailor, but he's in a great spot to reel in two high-profile, high-impact, young instastarters long-term.

John Dorsey is also a guy who, believe it or not, remembers how to trade players for players!

No honest, kids: Teams used to do this all the time!  I know--you probably thought Kizer for Randall was groundbreaking, right?

Speaking of which, I have to bring this up:

Duke Johnson, Kevin Zeitler, and JC Tretter may well be "available".

The Zeitler/Tretter part of that has to do with Rodney Corbettfield and yes: Analytics.

Irrefutably, both Tretter and Zietler were close to the best in the NFL at their respective positions, and are still in their primes.

You can say "if it's not broke, don't fix it".
 I've said that to myself.  The interior offensive line is working like a swiss watch, substantially because those three players have been together for two seasons.

It's also very likely that Austin Corbett would be a short-term downgrade over either of these seasoned vets.

However, (after Jamie Collins is let go), such a trade would push the free agent budget to over 40 million.

No way Dorsey spends all that, but carry-over is good; surplusses are good, and Corbett has three years left on his rookie contract, so the cap savings are per-year as well for that period.

Meanwhile, the return on any such trade would be substantial.  These are both elite players in their primes, and John Dorsey doesn't care that he's the guy who drafted Corbett.  Like me, he wants to keep these guys unless somebody will pay him what they are really worth.

Sans a trade, no big deal: Corbett can just "stay in school" and back up multiple positions while refining his skills.

The player-for-player version opens up possibilities not revealed in free agency.  Some team might be overloaded with stud defensive tackles and/or linebackers and badly need interior offensive linemen.

In that event, each team inherits the players' contracts, and thus both save money.

As for draft picks, an elite center or guard is worth a second or even first round draft pick.

That's where they go in the draft, and as often as not, the rookies aint ready for primetime yet.

Needless to say, such a trade is only a possibility.

So what should John Dorsey do this off season?

Well, defensive tackle is about the deepest position in this draft.  4-3 linebackers are so-so, and EDGE...

Well that label muddies the waters.  Wilks will run a 4-3 defense, and he really needs heat from true defensive ends.

He already has an Avery (think James Harrison), and doesn't need 3-4 outside linebackers.

Passrushing defensive ends who don't suck vs the run are kinda thin in this draft.

Meanwhile, in free agency there are linebackers and defensive tackles, but NFL teams will do all they can to retain their own edge-rushers, and the money will get silly in this market.

Last offseason, John Dorsey signed and traded for four veteran back end players, then drafted two more, knowing full well that not all of them would survive.

This offseason, he can do that at defensive tackle.

He can make a serious run at Grady Jarrett or Sheldon Richardson---or Wilkerson or others who are proven starters.

He won't sign (or trade for) more than one upper-echelon veteran defensive tackle, because this draft is full of these guys, and he should draft at least two of them...more likely three, if he doesn't trade out of his lower draft picks (which he should, by the way).

Things will no doubt change a lot with the Combine and stuff, but for the moment, unless maybe DE Rashan Gary lasts that long, Dorsey will kinda have to draft a defensive tackle 17th overall.

He could trade up to go after Bosa, but most likely can't.  Bosa probably goes in the top 5.

-sigh- too bad.  He'll have to settle for a stud defensive tackle.  Oh well.

Anyway, color defensive tackle massively upgraded down into the practice squad for 2019.

Dorsey should be more active with the free agent linebackers and defensive ends.

I keep coming back to Ezekial Ansah here...

He's 30 now, but he's not done yet.  Pickins are slim at this position, and Dorsey could sign him cheap and short-term.

KC's Dee Ford (who Dorsey drafted) will probably get franchised off the market, and there's not much left after that--and Dee is more linebacker than DE anyway.

Here, we can hope that Manny Ogbah will do better under Wilks than he did under Gregg Williams, that an upgraded inside passrush will take heat off him, and that guys like Chad Thomas and Chris Smith will take a step up.

Most of you people (and some NFL Coaches) have been hyperbolized by this whole "EDGE" thing.

A pass rush is a pass rush, regardless of where it comes from.  And in today's NFL this whole "yew godda have doo guyz comin ovv da edge" stuff may already be obsolete (along with the Joe Thomas Left Tackle stuff):

All the top quarterbacks laugh at edge-rushers.  They get rid of the ball too quickly, and if they don't, they take one step forward and let their tackles "steer" the edge guys around behind them.

Donald isn't alone, or a flash in the pan.  Blowing up the pocket is the new "thang", you people.  Inside penetration!  

Darnold, Mahomes, Jackson, Mayfield, Allen, (Rodgers) etc stay alive fleeing backside pursuit, run underneath and behind it, and (ideally) have already thrown the ball before any of that can happen!

Pressure up the gut combined with real athletes (rather than track stars) closing from the perimeter is how to screw these guys (let alone Tom Brady, Goff, or Rosen) up -snap-snap- 2019, ok?

Oh and then there's those RPO's and multiple tight end offenses and stuff...yeah go for it, track star!

The 2019 Browns Defense should be fine, as long as they upgrade at defensive tackle and linebacker, and add secondary depth.  

I really think Ogbah will prosper here (but that might be wishful thinking).

In Dorsey (and DePodesta) we trust.  (and if you're not "we", you are a mow ron).

...but I digress: as I said, John Dorsey can afford to add two (or up to four) young veteran studs this offseason.

He means business, you people.  Dorsey intends to dominate/win the AFC North in 2019, and he'll hammer the veteran free agents hard to max out this window of opportunity.

This was Paul DePodesta's plan all along, you people.  John Dorsey almost certainly advanced it by one year with his awesome first offseason, but "paying for" veteran free agents when you're in contention was always part of it DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

In free agency right now, John Dorsey can upgrade at linebacker, defensive tackle, and secondary depth, and also re-sign eveybody he needs to re-sign.

Fortunately, he will ignore everybody else (except DePodesta of course😜) and not waste his draft picks on "weapons" for Mayfield or potentially eventual Joe Thomas Lites, or wide receivers who aren't as good as anybody on the current roster...

Count on a top-flight free agent DT and at least one free agent linebacker, then an elite DT at 17 overall, and at least one more DT after that.

Count on a significantly more talented defense, and a maturing offense with a great quarterback, balance, and coaching.

Wilks (as a Defensive Coordinator) is highly respected.  I can't take that to the bank, because of his one-year track history there (with the talent-laden Panthers).

The guys on NFL Radio rant about his leadership and intelligence and stuff, but I'm not "sold" yet.

I am, however, sold on John Dorsey.  I know that Dorsey will fill out that defensive roster, and that Wilks will have a full "tool chest", at least commensurate with his 2017 Panthers defense.

The 2019 Browns defense should at least rank in the top ten overall (assuming Wilks is competent).  

Talent matters, you people.  Ogunjobi, Garett, Ward, Schobert, Randall, Peppers, Mitchell etc are already here.

Yep! The Cleveland Browns are the team to beat in the AFC North in 2019.

You heard it here first.

UPDATE: 

Todd McShea mocked DT Wilkins to the Browns at 17th overall.  FINALLY, a sentient analyst!

PS DUH






No comments: