Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Frank Clark, Ndomukong Suh, Analytics, Dorsey, and the Browns

I'm thrilled with the idea that 25 year old Frank Clark could become a Cleveland Brown, but worried that the Seahawks will franchise tag him.  I got my fingers crossed.

Thanks to Gurzi (I think), I now know that Father Flannagan (John Dorsey) might be able to rescue another troubled youth (dirt cheap) in 6'4" wide receiver Preston Williams.

Williams will not be at the Combine, or on many draft boards, due to an incident that happened in his freshman year.

This zero tolerance stuff is good in some ways, but sometimes it--and public reaction--gets out of hand.

Preston was 18 and in love (or at least obsessed) with a particular woman.  If you have a weak stomach, don't read this next part:

He grabbed her by the arm!  That's horrible enough, I know, but then he also texted and called her like 100 times too!

Hard to believe Preston isn't wearing a number several digits longer (on an orange jump suit).

Anyway, I remember being 18 and male.  Give. Me. A. Break.

Anyway, this guy is just phenominal--like Josh Gordon phenominal.  But worst human being on Earth or no, I doubt he makes it to round 4.

Dan Justik is starting to talk me into Ndamokong Suh...sorta.

Bill Barnwell projects a two-year (18 mil/year) fully guaranteed contract, and Dan points out that it would run out before Mayfield or Garrett would need to be re-signed.

And for sure, Suh's still "got it"; he's still probably the best at what he does (nose or zero-shade--run stopper and pocket collapser).

Still...this is one of the best defensive tackle draft classes a lot of us have ever seen!  John Dorsey is libel to draft two or even three of these guys, and you want to also take over 8% of your cap for Suh?

Dan (I'm projecting, but he's smart so I'm probably right) might axe me "Are any of these guys as good as Suh?"  and point out that the AFC North is there for the taking.

Well it's hard to answer the first question, because Suh isn't a 3-tech penetrator, while a number of these whippersnappers are.

Then there's Larry Ogunjobi, who this season prospered at Suh's position (zero shade). Larry can definitely play 3-tech if a real stud takes over the zero, but is that worth 18 mil?

Certainly, it's worth the 17th overall draft pick!

If you're going to spend 18 mil on one defensive lineman in 2019, it should be a passrushing defensive end.

Dan and Barnwell could be right about what Dorsey will do, but I wouldn't pay Suh all that with all these impressive rookie DTs available for peanuts.

Dorsey did make yet another smooth move in signing Jaelen Strong (Justik article again -sigh-).

Much like Rashad Perriman and Greg Robinson, Strong has been a "bust" to-date, which is why John Dorsey scraped him off the sidewalk for peanuts.

Dan is wrong about the Browns needing a big/tall outside wide receiver, but they always help.

Unlike Perriman, a lot of Strong's problems stemmed from injuries, but he was a great athlete at his Combine, and this is a zero risk, extremely high reward (analytical) move by John Dorsey.

The competitors at X and Z now include Higgins, Strong, Perriman, Willies, and Ratley...but of course the Browns need MORE to help Baker Mayfield in the Monken/Kitchens offense...good grief.

More corrections: One nimrod listed Defensive End and EDGE as Browns' needs.

Check out Joe Thomas's "Film Room" (partly) about James Harrison.  Genard Avery is James Harrison.

Lost in the Kareem Hunt signing is just how good Nick Chubb really is.  The "film room" guy who wrote the linked article, for all his ranting and raving, sold Nick short as a receiver.

As I told you about 12 times a couple hundred posts ago, in his freshman year at Georgia, Chubb caught a lot of passes.  

While he was injured, Sony Michel emerged as a terrific receiver, and when Nick came back, his role in the offense was redefined.

With the Browns, Duke Johnson took most of the third and long reps, partly because he's an excellent receiver off the line as well as out of the backfield.

Don't confuse limited production with lack of ability.

Somebody mocked linebacker Devin White to the Browns at 17th overall, and I'd buy that for a dollar, as White is generally expected to go in the top ten, and is regarded as the best real linebacker in this draft class.

The need at linebacker is real.  Jamie Collins and his inflated contract are as good as gone.  Those who keep saying that Christian Kirksey played well need a reality check.  Schobert was good overall, but led the league in missed tackles.

Rodney Averyfield 2.0 should be pretty good, but upgrading linebacker is almost as important as upgrading DT.

Too bad John Dorsey doesn't have a crystal ball, but hmmm...

Well the mock drafts which have him drafting an offensive tackle 17th overall are pretty dumb, but those that have him grabbing yet another cornerback are not.

...Yeah...yeah he just might go after Suh.  If he has DT nailed down ahead of the draft...and he wants a young stud corner to pair with Denzel Ward (yeah Mitchell is exceptional but you need a whole bunch of these guys these days)...

Hmm...If Suh is already here (for two seasons), Dorsey has lots of options at 17th overall.  If White falls to him, he can scoop him up.  Or he can use a couple lower picks to move up and nab him (or some other non-DT).

In this draft, John Dorsey can draft quality defensive tackles into the fourth round.

The Suh stuff makes more sense now.

Well I didn't like the Hunt signing either, until I counted the money and considered the long-term possibilities...

Suh WOULD make a big difference in 2019, and he's got all that experience to pass along.

Yeah he used to be the dirtiest player in the NFL (well at least tied with James Harrison), but he's learned to curb his psychopathic tendancies (like Harrison did BTW), and is at least almost human now.

Business is business: 

In 2018, John Dorsey signed and traded for FOUR defensive backs ahead of the draft, and then still drafted Denzel Ward 4th overall (and another cornerback later).

The other cornerback is gone, and so will at least one of the aforementioned free agents be.

Defensive tackle is different.  Most rosters only carry four of those guys active.  Maybe this time he just signs THE BEST available free agent DT.

If he then drafts yet a third defensive tackle 17th overall, it just means he has the best and deepest DT rotation in the NFL.

But if not, he can have a studly top two inside, and upgrade linebacker substantially as well, or create one of the best secondaries in the NFL with that pick.

Dorsey has options at DE and linebacker in free agency this year too, and the paradigm is new.  He will sign older guys (to shorter term and cheaper contracts of course), because he is aiming beyond just winning the AFC North in 2019.

Anyway, I might stand corrected.

I'll have to get back to you on that.




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