Thursday, January 31, 2019

2019 Browns Win Over/Under 7.5. Errahh...errroyyy....wull ogay I dingg

Bill Barnwell of ESPN is a funny guy:  He estimates the under/over on 2019 Browns wins at 7.5.

Thomas Moore offers a much more diplomatic response to this prediction than I would have.  

Tom forgot about the Saints game, which first went to overtime, and then was lost, on missed kicks.

He also forgot to point out that Baker Mayfield 2.0 will be even better than the rookie version, and the new/improved offense will be rolling out of the gate, obviously.

Seriously, Barnwell needs some deprogramming.

Joe Gilbert grades the Browns 2018 edge-rushers.  As usual, it's a good analysis, but I need to differ with Joe on a few points:

1: Wilks is not Gregg Williams, and may use some of these players differently than Gregg did.  In Carolina, Wilks tended to blitze more than Williams, and several smart people have pointed out that Ogbah played inside about as often as he played outside.

2: Genard Avery is a real linebacker, with linebacker athleticism and range.  He will be chasing a starting OLB role.  Joe wants to keep him off the field until third and long.

Joe gets a B- for this article.

The Clemson Tigers had an amazing defensive line, and have TWO defensive tackles of interest to the Cleveland Browns.

Christian Wilkins. Is CBS Sports 5th-ranked DT at this point, and his partner Dexter Lawrence is their 7th.

Wilkins is "too short" like Aaron Donald...and otherwise looks exactly like Aaron Donald.  Lawrence is a big powerful nose tackle with some genuine athleticism to him.

Nick Dudakovich . lists ten free agents he feels John Dorsey should pursue this offseason.

Zadarius Smith sounds smart to me.  He would return to defensive end (from backup/situational linebacker) in the Browns' defense, would hurt the Ravens, and not cost too much.

DT Sheldon Richardson check.  He's a very solid 3-down starter.

I like linebacker Anthony Barr too, but Nick also insults Genard Avery as a linebacker...I don't understand where this is coming from.  But Barr is a good player.

Nick also says the Browns need to upgrade "just about everything"...this is bizarre.

Cornerback Steven Nelson makes sense too.

Shaq Barrett is a good player, but Avery is better, and Nick?  Avery can cover! (Honestly, is all this garbage just because he was drafted in the 5th round?  I mean wow.)

Ryan Fitzpatrick would be cool, but I still like McCoy, Bridgewater, or Bortles better...I think.

Kicker Josh Lambo?  HAYULL Yeah!!!

Nick tops off his list with Browns free agents Greg Robinson and Breshad Perriman...yep!

All this Avery-bashing is already "old", but it's just the echo-chamber.  In 2 weeks or 2 months, Wilks will talk about Avery as a probable starter, and Joe, Nick etc will have to figure out why.

Anyway, this was 90% a great article! I mean, Dudakovich skipped all the obvious guys, and the guys who are unlikely to make it to free agency.  

In every case, Nick analyzed market, need, and each team's cap situation.  I really like this guy!

...but back to this Genard Avery necktie party:

Here are Avery's measurables: See that 40, 20 yard shuttle, and 3-cone? Those are first-class real linebacker numbers!  He is quicker and faster than a lot of safeties.

"Inconsistent" in coverage (I mean in his pre-draft scouting reports)?

Well, he was listed as an inside linebacker, but he actually moved all over the place in college, and attacked more often than not from wherever he was.

He dropped into coverage sometimes, but you people don't generally understand what that means:

He backed off into a zone off the snap, and looked around for somebody to cover or blow up.

That's simplified, of course, but it's the gist of his "coverage" in college, and what the majority of NFL linebackers do in coverage.

In college, Avery got interceptions, forced fumbles, and breakups, due to his reactions and speed, but sometimes he got into footraces with little speed demons, so he got burned too.

Are you getting any of this?  Any at all?

He's also 6'1", like James Harrison was, so skyscrapers burned him vertically, like they did Harrison.

And Avery was a R O O K I E DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?

Avery is quicker and faster than Jamie Collins, and Christian Kirksey aint in his zip-code.

Why on freaking EARTH are all these otherwise sentient beings declaring Avery a passrushing specialist who can't play linebacker?

Sorry 'bout that, but I have zero tolerance for dumbassitude, and it hits critical mass when I'm outnumbered.  This is where I prove I'm smarter than the other guys:  PAY ATTENTION.  I SAY THIS STUFF FIRST.

Just a note here on the salary cap:

1: It's linked to inflation.  Players and agents make damn sure of it.

2: Teams with lots of young talent can't blow all that money:

They theoretically can stretch Mayfield's contract through it's 5th year, but nobody does that with a superstar.  Like with Russell Wilson, smart teams avoid Kirk Cousins situations by renegotiating and extending them early...ahead of general inflation and the leverage the player's performance will add...

Does anybody get that?  In a nutshell, barring injury (or arrest/imprisonment or whatever), Dorsey will want to get Mayfield locked up long-term ahead of his fourth season.

This is "Business Analytics", as Paul Depodesta would tell you:

Mayfield is concerned about injuries, likes it here, and is presumably willing to lock up lots of guaranteed money to make over twice as much as he would in riding out the final two years of his rookie contract.

Dorsey gets ahead of inflation, nails down his quarterback for five or so years...

Nevermind I'll get into free enterprise, trade, and other burgoise capitalist stuff in later posts, if they don't silence me first.

...okbye








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