Thanks to Elliot Kemmel, I now understand that the Browns really have around 27 mil to spend on new veteran free agents in 2019.
As Elliott points out, some of that "spare" cap money has to be reserved to re-sign or extend current players (plus of course to sign draft picks and stuff).
I thank kindred spirit Elliott Kimmel for his diligence, and "brain-thinking", because until I read his article I, like every pundit in Cleveland, thought that John Dorsey had like 40 million to blow on veteran free agents.
Elliott joins me as the only other guy in Cleveland (aside from DePodesta and Dorsey) capable of long-term planning, and managing a budget.
But Kimmel does point out that dumping Jamie Collins' contract would increase the aforementioned budget by over 9 million...err so color that done right now.
Here is Spottrack.com's team salary cap list. This chart is drastically different from last season's. That season, seven of the 2019 playoff teams, including all four Conference Championship contenders, were in the bottom ten, and most had less than 10 mil available.
Still, as Elliott points out with the Browns, any team with less than 30 mil or so might be threatened (depending on their expiring contracts, who will renegotiate, and which older and injured guys they can cut loose).
The Browns find themselves in a brand new paradigm here, as players on a number of teams will be interested in defecting to John Dorsey's Cleveland Browns for once.
The five teams getting squeezed the most include the Steelers with under ten mil. Ebineezer Bell's departure won't effect them, but if they succeed in trading Antonio Brown, they'll get a lot back.
Thanks to Pit writer Jeff Hartman, I can see that the Browns can't dent them; they've got their front-line players locked up already (dammit).
Baltimore writer Matthew Stevens lists the free agent Ratbird free agents.
Stop with the Suggs stuff, okay? He's too damn old, okay jeez...
The two significant ones are of course C J Moses and DT Micheal Pierce. The Ravens will probably prioritize holding onto Moses, up to and including the Franchise tag, but their budget might not match Pierce's market value. He's a possible theft.
Pierce is a restricted free agent, but I don't know if there are first or second round tenders on him. If not, Pierce is likely to listen to Dorsey's pitch, as he no doubt wants to be a starter, and the Browns offer him that.
Both tight ends Maxx Williams and Nick Boyle are freed up at the same time.
While I like the Browns' tight end depth, I like these guys more. Moreover, the Ravens carried four tight ends:
These are talented players who could be featured by many teams, and the Ravens are unlikely to pay up for both of them.
Nick Boyle is probably the priority, and they'll have to pay extra to keep him stuck in this overcrowded system.
Maxx Williams, when drafted, needed to check his attitude, and had several weaknesses. But it's been four seasons, and (I think) he has evolved from a "big target" athlete to a complete tight end.
He's another possible theft for Dorsey. Mayock really liked him.
The Bengals are in better shape cap-wise, and can retain most of their guys.
However, Coaching (and system) changes shake good players loose sometimes, as the new Coaches don't know them, and they may not fit the new scheme.
Aside from tight ends Tyler Kroft and Uzomoah, there isn't much here.
Spottrac's overall free agent list shows lots of talent.
There are a bunch of edge-rushers (some linebackers) and disruptive defensive tackles, plus some nice linebackers here.
Sadly, most of the edge-rushers won't make it to the market (except those that local pundits want, who are old, injured, overpriced, and in decline).
The defensive tackles and linebackers are a little different, and John Dorsey has a good chance at landing a couple big (young) ones here.
Just like Sashi Brown, in 2018 John Dorsey spent freely in free agency in. Brown stole JC Tretter and Zietler to upgrade the offensive line.
Dorsey replaced MOST of the secondary (plus signed Hubbard and Robinson, among others) ahead of his first Browns' draft.
Simpletonians think this was all about needs. That's valid, but it was really more about the market. There were simply a whole bunch of cornerbacks shaking loose. The fact that there were so many depressed their contracts, and Dorsey jumped all over it.
And by the way, that's introduction to Business Analytics 101...and you think Dorsey and DePodesta are at odds?
But I digress: In 2019, it's a good defensive tackle, safety, and linebacker market on defense, and tight end market on offense (I've ignored the wide receivers and running backs for *what should be* obvious reasons).
...but there are a bunch of wide receivers as well, so Tyrell Williams could be affordable and available but I redigress:
Dorsey has a great chance of upgrading linebacker, defensive tackle, tight end, and possibly edge-rusher and kicker in free agency, as of mid-march.
His chances of success are obviously a lot better than they were last season, since Baker Mayfield is here now, and the Browns have unmistakably turned things around.
If, let's say, Dorsey lands just one good linebacker and one young disruptive defensive tackle in free agency, that's a net upgrade--even if you think Jamie Collins was better than his (much cheaper) replacement.
Next come the 11 draft picks. Dorsey can verily go "best available" at 17th overall, etc.
Like Jeremiah mocked, it could be Andre Dillard (LT Washington State) for all I know.
Jeremiah has a much higher opinion of Dillard than literally everybody else, but then Dorsey drafted Ward over Bradley Chubb 4th overall, so...
He drafted Callaway in the 4th, and Avery in the 5th by the way too...just sayin...
Now, to correct a few misconceptions and hallucinations:
Austin Corbett is not a bust. He was a ROOKIE, stuck behind Tretter, Bitonio, and Zietler.
He failed at left tackle (which he played in college), and pundits instantly decided he was exclusively an interior lineman.
Bullcrap. Corbett can play right tackle.
Re-signing starting left tackle Greg Robinson is an issue. Many pundits feel he needs to be replaced...I guess by another Joe Thomas...to protect Baker Mayfield's blind side.
That's ignorant too. In Freddie Kitchens' offense, let alone the Monkens/Kitchens pending hyrbrid sceme (with Baker Mayfield at QB), a passblocking left (or right) tackle isn't all that important!
It's Kitchens/Monken/Mayfield now! As Jake Burns illustrates in his Film Room, this offensive system and quarterback minimize the importance of a passblocking left tackle.
Then there's Desmond Harrison, who will enter his second season much-improved...obviously.
While linebacker is a position in need of an upgrade, Joe Schobert turned out to be the best coverage linebacker in the NFL. Unfortunately, he also blew the most tackles.
Despite this, he's one of the best linebackers in the NFL, and Wilks will use him like he used Luke Kuechly in 2017. Linebackers like these can make in-breaking routes a "no-throw zone" for quarterbacks.
I don't yet know how Wilks will use Peppers and Kindred, but I do know that he can "zone out" the whole middle of the field vs the pass with this crew.
I HOPE Wilks will stick with predominant press/man outside to max out Ward and Mitchell, but use zone everywhere else, because that's the talent he inherits.
Press/man ideally prevents edge-receivers from crossing or slanting, and squeezes them to the sidelines (bumping and jostling them that way as they run downfield).
It deprives the quarterback of anything but very tight-window out-cuts or back-shoulder bombs, see?
Wilks "gambles" more than Gregg Williams did (Gregg's "angel" was a security blanket to prevent big plays).
If I'm right, Wilks will not keep Randall that deep that often.
Gregg Williams had a rep for blitzing a lot. Actually, Wilks blitzes more than Gregg ever did. The press/man outside coverage, and the excellence of Schobert, Peppers, and Kindred in zone under Wilks is promising.
Even with the Panthers, however, Wilks never had a Garrett, or Avery, or two press/man corners, or even a "built in" 4-man passrush.
His 2017 Panthers' defense was pretty talented, but it probably won't even be close to his Browns' defense after Dorsey gets another offseason to upgrade it.
No defensive coordinator wants to live or die off the blitze. Every defensive coordinator wants a "built-in" passrush. I'm pretty sure that they'd all want to be able to glue two corners on the two outside receivers to limit the QB's options and shink his windows.
Reserve judgement on Wilks. He was only a Defensive Coordinator for one season before AZ made him a Head Coach.
By all accounts, Wilks is a smart guy. I accept this until proven wrong.
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