Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Browns Dumbass Mock Drafts, Defensive Tackles, more DePodesta

The top need the Browns have is Defensive Tackle.  WFNY's Joe Gilbert clarifies it in his final report card.  In a nutshell, Joe says everybody except Larry Ogunjobi sucked.

This is true, but Joe and others aren't yet considering the scheme Wilks will run, or the types of players that are actually missing.

As you can see in this Bleacher Report summary of the most common 4-3 fronts, most Coaches use a zero/one and a three technique defensive tackle, and these are two different types of player.

The writer of this article described all 4-3 alignments as "one-gap" schemes, unless the given coach uses "hybrid" looks.  That's half-wrong, because the "zero shade" is there to force double-teams;

He targets the center rather than the gap, attempting to take advantage of him while his snap-hand is back and his balance is undermined.

He's often responsible for both A-gaps.  This player forces double-teams, pulling the nearest guard to him.

This causes a traffic jam, even if the nose is unable to get penetration-depriving the running back of at least one gap.

Larry Ogunjobi proved able to effectively play both nose and three-technique, but he's kind of wasted at nose.

Joe and others suggest that Ogbah may be one option inside.  Situationally yes, but only at three-technique.

Gregg Williams moved Ogbah inside almost as often as he lined him up outside in 2018, and it didn't work too well.  In fact, some very smart people have suggested that getting better defensive tackles and keeping Ogbah on the edge more might well solve the "edge-rusher" problem.

(No knock on Gregg here.  Ogbah drasticly out-quicks guards, and is freakishly strong for his size, so lining him up in a B-gap should have worked).

Ogbah should be a good situational option (at three technique), but the defensive tackle(s) John Dorsey is looking for must include at least one run-stuffing, space-eating brute.

As Joe says, the Browns could really use three new (real) defensive tackles.

Gregg Williams seemed uninterested in big run-stuffers.  He loaded up on defensive end/tackle athletic penetrators.  I must assume that Wilks will submit a different kind of "wish list" to John Dorsey.

From a DePodestian perspective, this is good news.  Everybody wants Aaron Donald now, and the "boring" run-stuffers won't have as much percieved value.

Walter Football ranks the 2019 DT draft class.  It looks deeper than I had thought, and John Dorsey should find good ones at least into the bottom of the fourth round (and pure run-stuffers into the undrafteds).

Back to DePodesta: GMs tend to prioritize "three down" players.  In the modern NFL, a pure run-stuffing defensive tackle might only get on the field 25-30% of the time, and they're not great special teamers.

But DePodesta and I know that the one out of four downs these guys are useful on are goal line stands and second and third and shorts...that is on critical downs.

So look for John Dorsey to draft some big powerful guy in the 5th round or lower to play the zero in short yardage situations.

But of course free agency comes first, and Walter lists those guys too.

Everybody knows about Grady Jarrett and Sheldon Richardson, but their teams might franchise them, and if they don't, they'll cost somebody the stars and the moon.

John Dorsey will find more "traction" (leverage) with Pierce, Irving, Covington, and Philon.  (I left Wilkerson out because he's 29).

Walter's list goes on and on.  The defensive tackle "market" is saturated.  DePodesta and Dorsey will ruthlessly exploit this second tier.

DePodesta groks leverage, too:  These players and their agents will recognize a real chance of starting for the Browns, along with Baker Mayfield and a rapidly ascending team.

What a difference a year makes!  John Dorsey won't have to pay any "premiums" to bribe upper-echelon free agents in 2019.

In 2018, John Dorsey signed and traded for FOUR veteran defensive backs before drafting Denzel Ward.  He's likely to hammer the veteran defensive tackle (and linebacker) free agents that way during this free agency period.

He might well have both position groups "covered" affordably ahead of the 2019 draft.

The new players should average under 28 years old, and sign multi-year contracts (with guaranteed monies front-loaded) too.

Corey Kinnon lists the prominant Browns 2019 free agents, and predicts their futures.

I thank Corey for reminding me that the named players get a vote, which is why he expects EJ Gaines to hit the dusty trail.

Corey also has my back on a couple other guys, like TE Orson Charles, who he thinks will leave as well.

Todd Monken is an Air Raid guy, and Freddie Kitchens used those concepts to help Baker Mayfield out too.  We're unmistakeably moving on from Todd Haley here.

As Corey pointed out, Monken's hiring was probably good news for Rodney DeValvefield.

Seth DeValve, after a promising rookie season (and second season) at tight end, got elbowed off the field last season by Njoku and everybody else not named DeValve.

DeValve was a wide receiver in college.  Between his rookie and second NFL seasons, he packed on over 20 lbs of muscle in an effort to become a true tight end.

He broke even with the rookie Njoku as a receiver statisticly in 2017.

DeValve is shorter than Njoku, and Njoku was a better in-line blocker (and bigger target).  DeValve was tried at fullback (and of course H-back).

Freddie Kitchens didn't rescue DeValve when he took over from Mywayorthehighway Haley, but Freddie didn't really have time to reinvent the wheel, and had Duke, Higgins, Njoku, Callaway, Landry, and Perriman.

Kudos to Corey Kinnon for seeing how Kitchens and Monken are likely to favor DeValve over "blocking" tight ends.

Freddie did sometimes favor modified wishbones and "elephant" formations, but he hired Monken for a reason, and Baker Mayfield is his quarterback.

Seth DeValve might need work as a lead-blocker(?), but he's a very reliable receiver who can make big plays.

The clueless people who think the Browns need more wide receivers are generally not aware of DeValve's existance (let alone what Mayfield does best, or Monken's scheme).

Andrew Gribble (don't shoot the messenger) reports that a bunch of mock drafters predict that the Browns will draft an offensive tackle or wide receiver at 17th overall.

I want to call them a bunch of idiots, but most of them are trying to figure out 32 teams, and this is very, very early.  They haven't done any real homework yet on individual teams.

But the picks themselves are pretty dumb, from a Browns OCD perspective:

REDUNDANCY ALERT:  

1: No Joe Thomas required:

Baker Mayfield is decisive and highly mobile.  This offensive scheme is being built to exploit this.  Seven-step drops or slow-developing plays will be rare.

Greg Robinson (not to mention Rodney Harrisonfield) will continue to work just fine with this specific quarterback in this specific offensive system, thank you.

2: John Dorsey has too many wide receivers, and Baker Mayfield can't seem to find a favorite.

Dorsey probably disagrees with these mock drafters as he tries to figure out how much to pay Rashard Higgins and Breshad Perriman.

2a: Baker Mayfield couldn't care less.  He's probably insulted by people who think he needs more "weapons", or a blindside "bodyguard".

3: Desmond Harrison...period.

Of course, as I mentioned, Dorsey/DePodesta will be busy in free agency, and able to address their REAL top needs.

By the time the draft rolls around, the picture will be a lot different than it is now.

In the 2019 NFL draft, John Dorsey should be able to really draft the best available player from top to bottom, as he's addressed his (REAL) needs in free agency.

Let me channel Paul DePodesta here:

Now is the time to trade UP for a stud, or trade down to accumulate future draft picks.  If you draft 11 players, you are wasting more than half of them, because your team is one of the most talented in the NFL already.

Lord Insideous (Belichick) has traded "into the future" for over a decade.  He moves down 4-11 slots, and accepts an (at least one round higher) future draft pick (and more).

John Dorsey hasn't done much of this yet himself, but now he's met Paul DePodesta.

In this alarming article, Baker Mayfield has had dinner with Von Miller and Beckham Jr., which strongly suggests "recruiting".

I'm not too worried about it.  Obviously, Mayfield is getting great publicity out of it, and I guess he has an excellent PR guy.  Stand by for a bunch of Baker Mayfield commercials...well and Von Miller and Beckham commerials too...

You people need to ignore most of this crap.

...Or okay Baker might be more of a dumbass than I thought he was.  As a quarterback, he's a genius.  But we've seen his emotional immaturity (if not stupidity) on display as he's taunted Hue Jackson.

Maybe he's a "quarterback savant", and an idiot otherwise.

...Nah I think it's marketing.  No way Mayfield is...well niether Von Miller nor Beckham Jr will be Cleveland Browns, and Baker has to know that.

Sorry to break your hearts.

Freddie Kitchens told Baker to "decompress" in his first NFL offseason (before he was named Head Coach).

I like Freddie even more now.  Mayfield is obsessed, and a workahaulic.  He needs to take some time off and relax...not even look at films.  Just vacation with his new wife and live life for 6-8 weeks.

...then "get back into it" with renewed focus and vigor.

Kitchens said that Mayfield is "no where near where we want him to be".

Hoe. Lee.  CHIT!!!







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