Sunday, April 30, 2017

Moneyballin' Out. Nice Job Browns!

The Browns got five new starters out of this draft.  Earlier, they upgraded center and right guard: That's seven.  I remind you, there are 22 starters.

Stay with me: Almost as certain as the veteran free agent offensive linemen is the improvement of those players entering their second seasons.  As rookies, they were thinking more than playing.  They were hesitant and mistake-prone.

They had not had a season of NFL strength training, nor a full offseason to digest their experience.

These players include Carl Nassib, Ogbah, Corey and Shon Coleman, Rango, DeValve, two more wide receivers...well just a whole bunch of guys.

Ogbah should start opposite Myles Garrett.  Shon Coleman is the favorite to take over right tackle. Boddy-Calhoun should remain as the primary nickel.  Kessler will probably be the day one starter.  Corey Coleman should make the biggest leap of all.

Coleman played for Baylor, and didn't know an NFL route tree from the poplar in his back yard.

That's twelve upgrades, out of twenty two starters.

It won't matter.  Everybody will still talk about their "lack of talent" and "glaring needs" on both sides of the ball.  It's idiotic.

This article again discusses the nine players (so far--2018 first and second round picks on deck) the Browns got for Carson Wentz.  These now include two quarterbacks.

One of these quarterbacks was statistically superior to Wentz on a worse team.  The other is widely considered more talented than Wentz (and everybody else in this class except Mahomes).

Read the comments at the end of the article.  They're really, really ignorant.  The Browns would be better with Wentz, and without those nine players plus two high picks on deck?

What is being called "analytics" is the removal of subjectivity and bias from a process.  If you think Carson Wentz is Andrew Luck, you are not being objective.  If you think Wentz is significantly superior to Kessler, you are wrong there, too.

Most of all, if you think any one quarterback trumps eleven players, you are just plain off your rocker.  "Analytics" prevents emotions from causing stupid moves.  "Analytics" is uncommon sense.

2+2=4.

While Pat Kirwan will keep bashing the Browns for not trading away their draft to move up ten slots for Trubisky, Brad Hopkins says the Browns "stole the draft".  Most of Kirwan's contemporaries were similarly impressed.

Hopkins says Peppers was a huge bargain where they drafted him, and that Kizer should eventually be the best quarterback out of this draft class.

Instead of Trubisky and a few day 3 leftovers, they got Kizer, Peppers, Ogunjobi, Wilson, and other good players (including the best kicker to come out in several years).

I don't know what Pat is smoking.  How can he leap to so many conclusions about what the Browns thought or intended?  He himself said Deshone Kizer had the most upside in this class.  I don't get people who "think" like this.

Gregg Williams didn't get everything on his wish list.  He got a Polumalu type safety, but not an Ed Reed type.  This just in:
UFDA FS Kai Nacua just came aboard.  He's pretty good!

Strong safety will now be very deep, as Rodney Kindredfield showed real promise until he was injured.

I suspect that Ibraheim Campbell will be checked out at free safety.  He has more range than most people think.  Reynolds is a solid, and ascending, player who won't screw up much, and Williams can tweak some things to take some heat off him.

Williams got everything else.  Leaving Brantley aside for now, Ogunjobi will push Cooper hard for the 3-tech spot.  There aren't any Warren Sapps here, but there are some disruptive monkey-wrenches who can make messes.

Gregg has to be grinning from ear-to-ear about this:  In Garrett, Collins, and Peppers, he has three players he can move around to screw up blocking schemes and exploit specific matchups.  Call it the UFO defense!

He also should have a pass rush built right into the front four, so he doesn't have to blitze.  He still will, of course, but between Collins, Kirksey, Peppers, and the other guys, he can drive offenses insane trying to figure out who is coming and from where.

The Njoku pick was brilliant, although it was stupid to trade up for him with two other teams in line ahead of them.  It's possible that Green Bay said "now or never" to force the issue--I don't know, but they got the consensus second-best tight end in this draft.

Njoku is, in fact, an embryonic OJ Howard.  He has similar talent, but is a year behind him in his development.  That's why Jim Miller was so dumb when he wondered why the Browns didn't just draft Howard instead of trading down for Peppers and a 2018 first round pick.

Jim was getting caught up in Pat Kirwan's fire and brimstone Browns-bashing frenzy.  Normally he's pretty smart.

Last season, Hue Jackson would have treated Kizer as he tried to treat Kessler: Keep him on the bench.  What will be news to Oblivions, Myopians, and Memorex Morons is the fact that the Browns quarterback will have great protection and lots of help.

Njoku and DeValve are primed to attack the seams, right in front of the quarterback.  Coleman will probably be running lots of slants and crosses as well.  Britt is probably the designated deep threat.

That's four receivers, by the way.  Why do you keep saying the Browns need wide receivers?  They now have two tight ends who run like wide receivers.  Everybody except Coleman is a big tall guy with a big catch radius.  Hard to cover.  Hard to miss.

Then, of course, both running backs are good receivers who sometimes go to the slot.

The souped up offensive line will give the quarterback enough time to throw if he pulls the trigger when he's supposed to, and will open up holes for the backs.

By the way, Isaiah Crowell never "faded".  He was taken out of games by time and points when he wasn't stonewalled.  The people saying Crow faded are fundamentally clueless.

Njoku is a real "Y" tight end who can block in-line as well as set up in the slot or outside or out of motion.  They were never going to draft another Seth DeValve.  Barnidge's release probably means Tefler--the best blocker--is sticking around.

Solomon Willcotts is talking common sense about what happened.  He doesn't see a huge difference between Kizer and Trubisky.  He thinks the Browns were ready to nab Trubisky at 5 or below (if it didn't cost too much).

They might then have shifted to Mahomes, but Andy Reed swiped him.

Next target was probably Kizer.  They didn't panic, or overpay like Pat Kirwan would have.  And they just might have wound up with the best quarterback in this draft (hey I'm not the one saying this!  The experts are saying it!  Go pick on them!).

Everybody except Mel Kiper (B-) gave the Browns an A, even with Brantley.  Some of them say they had the best draft of all.

Kirwan must be apoplectic.  He's been making fun of the "Moneyball" guys constantly.  No it's sick listen:

They screwed up by not trading up to two for the one quarterback he was certain they wanted.  Then they screwed up again by letting Andy Reed trade up to snatch Mahomes away.

Then they screwed up by not taking Watson themselves.

They could have had this guy or that guy and screwed up by trading down and drafting the lowly Jabrill Peppers (one interception) at 25 (and raking in a 2018 first round pick).

"What position is he going to play?"  He KNOWS Gregg Williams is the defensive coordinator and still asks this question!

Then Njoku.  He's massively exhaggerating Njoku's rawness, calling him a "major project".  That's rediculous!  Then he's shaking his head and rolling his eyes over Barnidge's release.

Fortunately, he wasn't around for the Kizer pick.  I'm telling you, this guy has something wrong with him when it comes to the Browns.  He's like a freaking crusader against them.

Willcotts is probably closer to the mark.  A few posts ago, I said that for all we know, Hue Jackson rates five quarterbacks roughly the same, and believes he can turn any of them into a monster.  The Trubisky frenzy might have been pure fiction.  At the very least, a slight preference was blown all out of proportion by rumor-mongers and Browns permabashers.

Hey guys, the national guys (aside from Kirwan) aren't laughing at our geek squad any more.

They're still dumb sometimes "Let's be honest.  Kizer is the day one starter".  Because, you know, Cody Kessler sucks right?

Anyway, Hue Jackson is leaving the door ajar for Kizer because he can afford to.  He has his supporting cast in place, and can take the heat off him.

Now, Kizer does have 25 college starts.  As Terry Pluto reported, Notre Dame was a mess.  He played lousy last season, but he's not as raw as all that.

He impressed me by doing a self-scout, using game tapes.  He told interested parties exactly what he did wrong.  He frankly made an ass of himself, in a good way.  By demonstrating that he already knows what he did wrong, and that he knows what he should have done instead, he's telling coaches that he will listen, and intends to fix himself.

I give him an outside shot at starting game one.  More likely, he'll take over later in the season.

He can watch Brock Osweiller, who is 6'7", and copy his footwork.

I look forward to Joe Thomas vs Myles Garrett in camp.  Steel sharpens steel.  Come game one, that kid's going to be ready.

Hey Big Ben!  Say hello to my leetle freind!




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