We really need to lobby the Olympic Committee to make the Conclusion-Leap an event. I think the U.S. could sweep the medals. I want Rhona LaCanfora and Mary Kay Cabbott on the team!
This time, it's LaCanfora repeating what Mary Kay says. Sometimes, it's the reverse. When you read "according to sources", that's often what they mean.
So, now Jimmy Haslam wants Trubisky first overall?
Based on what?
Well, I suppose that since it's MKC the beat writer, she might have caught an actual leak. But as far as I can determine, that leak said that Haslam wanted "a quarterback", period.
The janitor might have overheard Jimmy ask Sashi Brown (with a grin) "But you are going to get me a quarterback, right?" (it's pretty obvious that the Browns will draft one somewhere in this draft--hence the grin).
Trubisky is being considered at first overall? Well, the other rumor is that Trubes is their favorite one...but at first overall, instead of Myles Garrett?
There's a whole lot of assuming going on around here, and remember: When you ASSUME, you make an ass of yourself.
Two things are more likely than not to be true here:
1: Jimmy wants a quarterback, and 2: Trubisky is Hue's favorite. But that's it.
It doesn't mean that they want him first overall, that the owner is pushing for Trubisky in particular, or that Hue considers Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, or even Webb or Josh Dobbs as significantly less capable.
The rest of this is speculation, and it's not even quality speculation.
Part of this is the premise that the Browns would never dare trade down from Myles Garrett...but might draft Trubisky first overall instead?
Well, if you've read my previous posts, you know that it's better than 50/50 that if the Browns traded down (to five in my example), they could still nab Trubisky, plus two more high picks, including 18 overall.
Now, if you're a box-thinker, you think it's unthinkable not to draft a generational passrusher for any price, and that Hue Jackson can't possibly like more than one quarterback.
I address the generational passrusher vs price thing in the aforementioned posts. Good arguments can be made on both sides of that issue, except when a potential franchise quarterback is the intended alternative. The "there can be only one" quarterback thing is simply irrational.
Full circle: Let's assume Jimmy Haslam really does want a quarterback. This is news? Let's assume that Trubisky is the top contender. This makes everybody else a bunch of bumbs? This makes him a first overall draft pick? Where is this coming from? Somebody's off their meds here!
Now, I am speculating here, because the Browns may well be content to just take Garrett at first, and get their quarterback later (maybe not even at 12). Trubisky might not even be their favorite!
But at least my speculation is based on my accurate understanding of what DePodesta does for a living ("moneyball" oh shut tf up!), all credible scouting reports on all the quarterbacks, Hue Jackson's own words on franchise quarterbacks, this offensive system, and known facts.
This really smart article by a Jets writer suggests that the Browns and Jets are discussing a trade in which the Browns move from 12 to 6 (the Jets pick) in order to grab Trubisky (if he lasts that long) rings true.
Rich Cimini is the writer, and he groks all this stuff:
This is a contingency trade, and Sashi Brown is trying to pre-arrange a whole slew of them.
I know, Mike Mayock and a bunch of other smart people have said that drafting any quarterback at 6th overall in this draft would be a big reach, but all that matters is what Hue and the Browns think.
This hypothetical trade assumes Garrett is in the bank, and that the Browns indeed see Trubisky as more promising (and/or safer) than the other quarterbacks.
Cimini says the Jets would want the top second round pick at 33 for this, but #52 represents a fairer price per the value chart. Due to their leverage (it's a quarterback, after all), the Jets can demand more. The final price could be 52 and a 2018 third or fourth round pick.
More speculation for Cimini and me. But you see, it's not a blockbuster. It implies that Sashi and company are ready to let Trubisky go if the asking price is too high for him.
This is part of what's being called "analytics": There are no absolutes. We're not talking about Andrew Luck here, and even if we were, he'd have a maximum-bid limit. There are no stars in anybody's eyes. No desperation.
(Speculating here): Maybe they think Trubisky is most adaptable to the Pros in general and Jackson's Corryallian West Coast in particular, and has the highest floor (ie better than Brian Hoyer). Watson's velocity and supporting cast, and Mahomes's unpredictability make their respective floors much lower.
They're using really deep mathematical models here, but Hue Jackson and the other football people heavily influenced DePodesta when he built them DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Anyway, Trubisky is not worth most of the 2017 and part of the 2018 drafts to move up to second overall. He is not THAT MUCH better than the other guys in his own draft class, or even neccessarily a "top twenty" starter.
But in the Browns current predicament, they think he's worth maybe 12, 52, and a 2018 third round pick (and not a penny more).
This trade would be widely panned as an overreach, and some ignoramus would call it "panic"...so they just need to be right.
If Trubisky is nabbed before the Titans pick, no trade, and the Browns will draft their quarterback later.
Pat Kirwan says "If Trubisky is your guy, then just use all that ammo and trade up to number two to get him!"
For Kirwan, like a lot of these guys, there can be only one. This is absolutism, and is irrational. In fact, while Hue Jackson is being very vague about these quarterbacks, he's been very clear on his philosophy:
A quarterback needs accuracy, arm talent, and to be able to be the "face of the franchise". The height and other stuff are secondary. He even said that a strong running game, good receivers, and good defense make a franchise quarterback.
Why am I the only one who believed him, or even remembers he said it? Perhaps because I'm the only one to whome it made sense?
But no--there can be only one! Trubisky or we're all gonna die!!! "Mahomes? Gee thanks, Sashi. Might as well hand me my pink slip now!"
See earlier posts about this.
Now, Pat Kirwan is, like Bill Polian, kind of a Martonian blockhead, but he did turn me onto "defensive end" DeMarcus Walker in this draft:
He's probably a third day pick, and is far from perfect as a defensive end. His arms are also a little short.
But he was a track star in highschool, and his events included the 100 yard dash, the high hurdles, and a relay race. I can't remember the distances or details, but Walker set a couple school records in the hurdles, and Pat pointed out that in his relay race, he was the guy who ran around the turn.
He was a big monster in highschool, too, by the way. His weight-room numbers are competitive with those of offensive linemen.
DeMarcus is currently 280 lbs., but could pump himself up bigger. Pat Kirwan immediately projected him as a 3-tech defensive tackle (a legitimate Gregg Williams need here).
Pat loves his first step, hands, strength, and long speed, and thinks he can compete for a starting role early in his career. He should be able to out-quick guards, penetrate, and pursue.
There's a sleeper alert. Last year, Tyrone Holmes was one of my sleepers.
I read Bleacher Report's draft preview. I was thrilled by the offensive side of it, as they gave Shon Coleman some props, projected DeValve as a nice future asset, colored center and running back covered, and even said Cody Kessler was more than a bumb.
I think a different writer did the defensive side, because I couldn't even force myself to read all of it. That's part of my training: Once a clear pattern of bullshit is established, stop looking at it, and try to forget what you saw to that point.
But some of it is indelibly seared into my memory:
Carl Nassib should not be used as an outside passrusher any more. Just on run downs, or inside. The Browns need outside linebackers badly. Nate Orchard and Johnson are outside linebackers---not defensive ends--in Williams' defense. Joe Haden might be washed up. Several ROOKIES got final judgements, complete with tombstones.
The offensive side was very insightful, as it went beyond analytical numbers, and allowed for first and second year players to make their predictable leaps, implicitly factored in the two backup centers, etc.
Then this massively negative steaming pile of LaCanfora on the defensive side!!!
I have to suggest to the Bleacher Report that they send the incompetent boob who did the defensive side of their predraft analysis their link to this blog that I foolishly gave them when I tried to write for them. He can join the growing crowd of assholes that raid this blog without attribution (gdammit you scumbags).
Err...sorry. Anyway Orchard, Johnson, and Holmes can all be edge-rushers at defensive end in a 4-3, as well as from 3-4 OLB. Kirksey can play ILB or on the weak side, as well as MLB. Collins can play MLB (along with every other position in any scheme).
You'll need to go back awhile in my entries to find this, but Gregg Williams is most likely to run more 4-3 with the talent he has inheritted, and the prevalence of spread offenses dictates lots of 4-man fronts anyway.
Obviously, Johnson/Orchard/Holmes are defensive end candidates here (although all three did surprise in coverage last season, and one of them could be a decent strong side linebacker in a 4-3 as well).
But this I haven't written before: Williams might well run more "wide nine" with this crew than he ever has before.
That's a four man front, but exploits the fact that the offensive linemen have to set up in a fixed pattern, with a limitted range of gap-distances between them.
Two defensive ends set up well out of the two offensive tackles' range, blatently threatening to blow past behind them on their way to the quarterback. The ends are FAST, and the tackles almost have to launch themselves backwards at the snap, trying to get in their way.
This puts most of them off-balance and overcommited outside, which makes "inside moves" easy for the two edge-rushers. Give Jim Schwartze credit here: it consistently minimizes the offensive tackle's size advantage, and maximizes the defensive end's quickness and speed; it puts the big guys off-balance.
Naturally, the wide 9 opens up big gaps. Offenses try to run inside the tackles against it, and (with some quarterbacks) can roll out on passes. Exceptional tackles can dictate inside or outside moves, and smart coordinators can exploit this to hammer those big gaps.
Got your hip-waders on?
Contrary to popular conclusion-leaping, the wide 9 needs "benders" (ie passrushers who can get low to the ground to turn a corner around a lunging, reaching, 6'5" offensive tackle) like it needs a hole in the head.
The ideal wide 9 defensive end combines power with speed, and is a generally linear passrusher who combines these traits with leverage and power.
That's because they already HAVE the edge due to where they set up. What's more important for them is an ability to "crash down" on those cordially-invited inside runs or quarterback scrambles.
Edge-rushers in the wide 9 need to be smart: They need to look past the blocker into the backfield, and react to that, rather than the sucker-bet block.
And they need to use leverage and strength to intercept (or at least redirect or delay) that inside run.
The Browns are STACKED with players who can do this, and that includes Carl Nassib.
This is another reason why calling "edge" a position of need here is ignorant.
This is also DePodestian: Gregg Williams has already told him what what he intends to make of the talent he has, about his ideal defense, who he needs short term and long term, and why.
Edge-rusher, I guarantee you, is at or near the BOTTOM of that list. My wide 9 theory is speculative, yes, but I'm prepared to think Gregg Williams is almost as smart as my humble self, until he proves me wrong. (That's just the kinda generous guy I am!).
This is why I more than half way expect a trade-down. Everybody wants Myles Garrett. It's not like the Andrew Luck fenzy, but it's close.
In conclusion, I would settle for Myles Garrett if you twist my arm hard enough, but prefer a boatload of draft picks, and hopefully Trubisky, instead.
THE BROWNS DO NOT NEED AN EDGE RUSHER. THEY DO NEED A FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK and stuff...DO YOU UNDERSTAND yet?
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