Plan A: 12th overall, and (MAXIMUM) 2017 #52, second second round pick in 2018 for Jimmy Garopollo.
Plan B: First overall for Jimmy G, and (MINIMUM) the Patriots 2017 third round pick and a 2018 second round pick.
Plan C: #12 and Josh Gordon for Jimmy G.
Plan D: The 3-way trade with Seattle for Jimmy G (costing 12, a 2017 4th round pick, and a 2018 third round pick: doubtful).
Plan E: Trade down from 1st overall (I used Tennessee as an example; they do draft ahead of the Jets). This could work with everything above except plan B: The Browns get 5, 18, and a 2018 first round pick, which should be in the mid to low 20s).
Now, here it is possible for Mitch Trubisky to make it to 5 (12 is a dream) if the Jets (or somebody else) doesn't leapfrog the Browns.
This presupposes that Trubisky is Hue Jackson's favorite lump of clay. I will also presuppose that Mahomes and Watson are both "acceptable".
To explain this again, Hue Jackson, I believe, thinks he can turn any quarterback who checks his boxes and is a dedicated and serious student. Especially with an improving defense, dominating offensive line, strong running game, and good receivers.
This, in turn, presupposes that the Browns would be willing to risk somebody else nabbing Mitch Trubisky. Most old schoolers will call me insane...but I still can't figure out why.
I'm also presupposing that there has been no Garopollo trade, of course, or that there has been one, which takes Trubisky off the board anyway.
On to scenario A: The Browns have Jimmy Garopollo and no 12th overall. Scenario B presumes that 12 is still there (no Jimmy), but that Mitch is off the board (I think they'd take him if he's not--he's oddly enough the safest of all the quarterbacks).
In either of these scenarios, Malik Hooker, Trubisky, and Garrett are likely to be gone. Those with a decent shot to make it to 5 include Jamal Adams, Lattimore, and Jonathan Allen.
With the secondary depth in this draft, the numbers win here: If available, it's DT Jonathan Allen, who, prior to the combine, some had rated ahead of Myles Garrett.
Because the Browns have only one passrushing defensive tackle, and FIVE edge-rushers on the current roster, and since the dropoff from Allen is pretty steep, he's the ideal bird in the hand for Gregg Williams in 2017.
Williams keeps telling everybody that he runs all sorts of different fronts, but the extreme prevalence of spread offenses in the NFL pushes every defense into a 4-man front the majority of the time.
Also, if Williams does have a "tendancy", it's 4 down linemen anyway, and THE key player is that "3-technique" penetrating "under" tackle...ie Allen in spades.
This player overmatches interior offensive linemen, and requires double teams. He comes straight at the quarterback from a shallow angle, and is way more disruptive than any edge-rusher.
He would set up between Shelton and Ogbah here. If you don't gang up on Danny Shelton, he will drive you back into your backfield.
Most fans don't know this about Ogbah, but he got a lot of his pressures and sacks crossing the left tackle's face, and going between him and the guard. He also stunted a lot. Ray Farmer really made the most of him, and deserves credit for that.
This won't be lost on Gregg Williams, but there is tape on Ogbah now, and he'll have to expand his game (you know, like most second year players do, as they predictably improve with experience?)
Opposing offenses rarely double-teamed Ogbah. They relied on their left tackles, which was their undoing. Joe Thomas might not have been able to stop him coming inside like that.
The trade-off here is that in 2017, offenses will attack the left edge on the ground, and with screen passes. Ogbah will have to stay outside more (like a normal defensive end).
Ogbah is a "linear" passrusher, and can't "bend the edge" like Myles Garrett can. He does have good speed and explosion for his size, freakish strength, and uses leverage well. He will never match Garrett as a pure passrusher, but he might get double digit sacks with a Jonathan Allen next to him, can hold the edge etc., and is an excellent all-around football player.
Ogbah can and will defeat the majority of left tackles he faces rushing outside. Joe Thomas and fewer than ten others can stop him there, but he can purely torture the majority of them, as he can jack them up and drive them back like Clay Matthews did later in his carreer.
...Err, by the way, Bill Polian: Matthews couldn't "bend the edge" either, so I wonder where his eighteen sacks in one season came from...
Anyway Ogbah will never be double-teamed, unless it's a...no he just plain won't be, if a Jonathan Allen is here.
But this is how Gregg Williams wants this to work: The under-tackle has to be a huge pain in the ass. The edge guys are secondary DO YOU UNDERSTAND? The free safety must be exceptional, and he also needs somebody like Troy Polumalu underneath. Everybody else needs to be able to rush the passer, and can otherwise be "servicable" (except for at least one "shut-down" man corner).
This is why I've been telling you: Jonathan Allen would probably help the Browns MORE than Myles Garrett would!
Rodney Nassibfield should, realisticly, return in 2017 pumped up to near a rock-solid 300 lbs. He should retain, or even improve, his 4.7 40 time.
He was a super-sack master in college, and until he broke his hand in his R O O K I E season, he was unstoppable. No, I mean they were double-teaming him and still had to tackle him and stuff. (As we know, this is legal vs Browns players).
He didn't come back from that injury, and was mediocre for the balance of 2016.
Part of this was because Ray Horton had to minimize his role as Des Bryant went down, and he had to lean on oknevermind just trust me here dammit.
Carl Nassib, though once considered an OLB prospect, is actually a prototype 4-3 defensive end. He is a natural passrusher, but also has the size and reach to hold the edge and stop the run.
He is absolutely the top candidate to start on the strong side in his S E C O N D season, because Nate Orchard and the others are comparatively light in the loafers (note on Orchard, though: He surprised against the run--nice depth here!).
Nassib is a shoe-in on the strong side, because his quickness and speed overmatches ALL right tackles, he can keep them off him with his length, and he'll be big and strong enough to shrug off chip blocks.
I hereby predict a big year for Carl Nassib. Sacks, tackles for losses, and deflections. Just wait and see.
A note on double-teams: We tend to think it's two side-by-side offensive linemen ganging up on a guy, but it's often a center or guard rotating back all the way to an edge. Just try that with Allen and Shelton in there!
Now, Garrett and Allen would be better than Allen and Ogbah, but Garrett and Cooper isn't as good as Ogbah and Allen in a Gregg Williams defense. Is any of this sinking in yet?
Allrighty then! Ok so now we got 12 up next (no Jimmy/no Mitch).
Ok this requires some contemplation: Watson (if he's still here) is the consensus pick, but my hunch is that the braincrust prefers Mahomes.
Good chance Mahomes lasts to 18. Not so Watson. But this is a quarterback, and you are the Cleveland Browns, so you just head the inevittable screw job off at the pass and pull the trigger on Mahomes (over Watson).
I might be fulla beans here, because Watson did what he did, under the brightest conveivable lights, vs the scariest conceivable competition, under the most conceivable pressure.
I just lean toward Mahomes because he's more accurate, didn't have anywhere near the same supporting cast, spead the ball around ("vision"), has a cannon arm, appears physicly tougher, and did what he did without proper mechanics, on unadulterated raw talent.
Oh no doubt for sure, Deshaun is more pro-ready (and a safer bet), but I remind you: I personally remember John Elway. Mahomes is being compared to Matthew Stafford, which I suppose is apt. But John Elway is much more accurate here, I'm telling you.
For "Mick" Jackson, a boxing analogy works here: "Da kid has great power, excellent reflexes, a hard head, great balance, and guts. Once I teach him to throw straight punches and how to duck, he's gonna be unstoppable!"
Some experts think Mahomes (asuming he can succeed) is two years away, but this is Hue Jackson, and he dictates the offense, so he could show up in 2018.
Now, we got 18th, 33rd, and 52nd overall before we even get to the top of the 4th round!
At 18, we might be looking at two of three eventual left tackles (instant right tackles), safeties out the yinyang, the second-ranked cornerback, possibly Fournette (have to consider best available here, and he's exceptional)...and you get the idea: Another STUD!!!
Now, if you read this and still think Garrett or bust, the Browns front office should have a restraining order out on you.
As usual: I'll settle for just Myles Garrett and Mahomes or Watson if you twist my arm, or even (yes) Trubisky, if Hue thinks so (there I said it).
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