Sunday, April 9, 2017

Objectivity, Offensive Needs, Punditry and the Browns

Todd McShea and Mel Kiper released new mock drafts.  Garrett check.

Kiper gives us Watson at 12 (with Trubisky gone).  Mel thinks the Browns will have to draft either one here, partly for political reasons.

They passed up Wentz last year, and number twelve is one of the many draft picks they got for doing so.  Kiper says if they pass up one of these guys here, and they kick butt somewhere else, "heads will roll".

Clearly, Kiper has a much, much, much higher opinion of Watson than Buzz Kill Bill does, and if he is right, then he's right about the pick, too.

Atop the second, he drafts the guy who smashed a woman's face in: Joe Mixon.  Mixon was a punk, and should have a second chance--to grow up, regret, and reform.  But that video will never go away, and five years from now, people will experience it as if it happened yesterday.

Many people will never forgive him.  Kiper and everybody else think Mixon is a great multi'dimensional big play work horse running back, and Mixon would be a great value here.

But Kiper sees running back as a need, and it is not.  There will be players with similar grades at positions of real need there, so I really, really doubt that the Browns would take this baggage on with this pick.

At 52, it's safety Marcus Maye.  Cool.

McShea goes with OJ Howard, DeShone Kizer, and JuJu Smith-Shuster.  I love OJ Howard but hate the rest of this.

Aside from being big and tall, I can't fathom why so many people like DeShone Kizer.  McShea has to send Kizer somewhere, so he picked the Browns.  But if he were running this team, I really doubt that he'd make this pick.

And the Browns don't need wide receivers.  Not that Smith-Shuster isn't pretty good.

Jeff Schudel wrote a great article on the potential Garopollo trade.  I agree with every word of it.

Jeff correctly describes Lord Insideous's situation in New England with rare clarity, including the possibility of his committing 40 million bucks to the quarterback position in 2018 should he retain Jimmy G.

Jeff is also spot-on about time working against Bill.  As of now, he's said to be unwilling to even consider trading Jimmy G, or alternatively, to demand the first overall pick, another first round pick, and the contents of Fort Knox.

That's how I would start my negotiations too.  As I've repeated ad nauseum (sorry btw), unless Bill Belichick expects to replace Tom Brady after the 2017 season, he almost has to let Jimmy go, period.

Jeff is right.  The Browns should just sit tight.  If the Sith Lord needs to cash in on his young apprentice, he has to do it before the draft, and will make the best deal he can.  He loses, rather than gains, leverage every day.

This aint over til it's over.

Two articles I read today line up perfectly: If the Browns trade down from first overall, they need to keep Brock Osweiler.  He can start against whichever team drafts Myles Garrett.

Micheal Bode really let Tony Grossi have it over what Tony said about Barnwell.  I wouldn't have been that harsh, but can't argue with anything Bode said here.

Micheal, like me, is sick of "analytics", like "moneyball", being used as a snarky perjoritive by "old schoolers" who usually don't even comprehend what people like Paul DePodesta do.

More specificly, Grossi must hang out with Mary Kay, as Micheal says Tony implies that Barnwell is a de facto consultant to the Browns, based on Barnwell's suggestion that the Browns make the Osweiler trade well before they did exactly that.

Personally, even if that were true, so what?  Sashi, Paul, and company should keep their ears open to what everybody on their "smart" list is saying.

Is thinking you're smarter than everybody else and refusing to consider their opinions part of being "old school"?  If so, that is sad!  But it does sound like Buzz Kill Bill, no?

There seems to be some confusion over Hue Jackson's offense, especially as pundits try to determine how potential quarterbacks or other players would "fit".

It gets insane.  Because he coached Flacco and traded for Carson Palmer, some think he wants a big strong-armed bomber.  Because he coached Andy Dalton, some think he wants an athletic sharpshooter like him.

Because he had AJ Greene, Marvin Jones, those two running backs and Eiffert in Cincinnati and used them accordingly, many think Hue wants to run and go vertical a lot.

The fact is, as Hue himself, and many of his former players have told anybody who would listen, Hue Jackson will run any offensive scheme which fits the players he has.

He inheritted what he inheritted when he got here last season, and the new regime didn't have a lot of time to prep for it's inaugural off season.

Now Hue has a base to work with.  His skilled offensive core includes Britt, Coleman, Crowell, and Duke.  I omitted Gary Barnidge on purpose; he's not a long-term guy, and is in decline.

These four players will influence who the Browns target in the draft, as well as the offensive scheme Hue Jackson is  planning.

I'm trying to work this out as I write this (quiet: Genius at work!).

Well, Britt is kind of a more refined Terrelle Pryor.  Pryor's 40 time is significantly faster, but Britt was a track star who set state records in the longer sprints.  Pryor has a couple inches on Britt (and damn near every other wide receiver), but this is partly why Britt is more sudden in his breaks/cuts.

I was Pryor's biggest fan long before the rest of you stopped making fun of me for it, but Britt is no slouch.  He was stuck with arguably even worse quarterbacks than the Browns had, and on some almost-as-bad teams, and under Jeff Fisher...the most overrated coach in NFL history.  (Marvin Lewis is number one active, by the way).

Britt can go deep, but is a nice big target on slants and crosses, and is dangerous after the catch.  He fits any scheme well, but a West Coast might be best for him.

Coleman was a Baylor wide-out, so he had to learn the NFL route tree, and how to read coverage, from scratch as a rookie who broke his hand...

...ok well he has Greg Pruitt-like explosiveness.  He is like a human pinball; he darts this way and that, which is why he could play running back in the NFL if asked to.  He also has great long speed, and can be a scary deep threat.

Coleman is 5'11"...not 5'9"...and can play outside, but his best position is in the slot, where he can best exploit his ability to separate, and then run with the ball in his hands.  

He is like Britt (except different) (I will pause to let that sink in...are you laughing?  Ok I give up).  He can play in any scheme, but is probably best in a West Coast, at least as an outside receiver.  

I have to check out the bullpen here, and bring up Seth DeValve, a converted wide receiver who saw more and more action throughout 2016.

DeValve is not, and never will be, a tight end.  He is a very big wide receiver; an H-back who can plow into people in space and shift around, but is mainly just a big target.

DeValve has yet to prove himself as a core player, but things look pretty good right now, and even if he is displaced, should remain on the roster.

Well, HE is absolutely ideal for a West Coast.  DeValve needs to challenge safeties and linebackers inside, and has the speed to go postal and catch deep lobs right down the pipe.

There are different versions of the West Coast.  Lindy Infante, here in Cleveland, probably actually inspired Walsh in San Fran when he made Brian Sipe into an MVP and coined the phrase "using short passes as long handoffs".

The underlying principle is lots of slants and crosses, the quarterback getting rid of the ball asap, and attacking the field right in front of him with high-percentage, low-risk passes.

This is why I have to also bring up Cody Kessler and Brock Osweiler, because both are well-suited to this system (Kubiak runs a West Coast too).

Hmm.  I'm starting to see a pattern here.  But I'll keep it to myself for now.

A lot of people don't get this, so I have to mention it: The spread offense is not what the 49ers dynasty ran.  Walsh used two wide receivers, one tight end, and a fullback a lot.

That's just a general point I needed to make.  The 49ers had a dominating offensive line, and ran the ball a lot.  The tight end and fullback blocked a lot.  This wasn't a finesse offense.

Now, Isaiah Crowell has been officially labelled "inconsistent".  He had one substandard year, during which he averaged below 4 ypc.  But he has averaged over 5 ypc for his career.

I seem to be the only person on Earth who noticed that in 2016, Crowell stopped being blown over by wind gusts, and started looking like his role model, Marshawn Lynch.

I've been around for awhile, you know?  So I can tell you, Marshawn Lynch himself didn't mutate into "Beast-mode" until he landed in Seattle.

Crowell has become an excellent receiver out of the backfield, as well.  Duke Johnson always was.  This fits the Infante offense which predated what Walsh took credit for later.

As this stands, we are looking at a predominantly West Coast passing scheme and a...

Ok well I think that the Browns should zone block a lot.  I don't buy the "power run" stuff, especially after free agency.  These new guys, two backup centers, Erving and Greco all belong in a zone-blocking scheme, as does Crowell.  And Thomas.

...and I have to assume that Hue Jackson will surprise all the pundits and let his offensive coordinator NOT run his "favorite" man/power scheme but I digress:

What about Josh?  (Remember the movie "What About Bob" with Bill Murray and Dreifuss?  Do I have to keep explaining this stuff?  Insert laughter here _____).

While we can't count on him, it is more likely than not that Josh Gordon will be starting on day one.  Fortunately, Josh fits all schemes, so it doesn't matter.  His presence opposite Britt would definitely put Coleman in the slot, force a 3-wide, and a lot more vertical stuff, but this doesn't have to change the draft.

Given these personnel, Hue Jackson will see a real tight end as a priority no matter what.  Zone-blocking minimizes the need for a blocking fullback (or H-back) but a blocking tight end fits perfectly as part of an 11 (spread) alignment, as well as a two-tight end "12", which Hue uses extra offensive linemen to run sometimes when he runs out of tight ends...

Aside from "franchise quarterback", I have just listed all the needs for this offense in this draft.

I don't see OJ Howard as a realistic option if Trubisky or Watson are there at 12, or possibly even Mahomes, but in this particular draft class, this isn't a big problem.

Now, you people need to quit this running back crap, because behind Crowell and Duke is George Atkinson III, who is a huge, massive sleeper.  Keep snickering.  I'll have the last snicker.

I must close out with this: I hope the Browns can pry Jimmy G out of the Sith Lord's cold, dead hands, but if they can't, any quarterback they draft is not going to start game one.

Here on Earth, Brock Osweiler is neck-and-neck with Cody Kessler for that honor until he is traded.  The more I research this, the more I want to give Brock a chance to run a Kubakian passing game which Hue is probably setting up for Cody Kessler anyway.

Now shut up and listen:  In Denver, Brock had a strong running game and two really good wide receivers.  His defense got him good field position, and didn't force him to come from behind much.

He did a pretty good job.  He was, in fact, better than Peyton Manning.  He was good enough that John Elway tried to keep him.

He is now a veteran, with a winning record.  Hue Jackson is the Head Coach.  He will have a BETTER offensive line, probably a better running game, a better tight end, and (with Gordon) even better wide receivers.

Brock also has one edge on Cody: His arm.  Regardless of West Coast elements, Hue always wants to threaten deep, to keep the safeties back.  He's a little more Coryall than Walsh.

Buzz Kill Bill hates this guy.  So don't count him out.

Davis Webb is getting popular again, and I love what I'm reading.  He's got football OCD like Brady and Manning.  His former head coach says his occasional inaccuracy is explainable:

First, his footwork.  Taller quarterbacks have to work harder to consistently set up properly.  Second, he "drops his elbow" (whatever that means), which causes the ball to sail high.

This isn't his natural motion, and happens when he's not set up right, so it's easily fixed.  Apparently, it didn't happen when he became MVP of the Senior Bowl under Hue Jackson.

Buzz Kill likes him fine, because he's 6'5" with a cannon.  That's close enough to Manning and Kelly for him.





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