Saturday, April 29, 2017

Cleveland Browns Digging for Gold

Check out this Excellent Article on the current status of the Carson Wentz trade.  Scott Patsko (Cleveland.com) expressed zero opinions, so this was pure reporting--leaving us to judge it.

So far, subsequent trades have turned this Carson Wentz into 16 picks (costing the Browns 8).  But stand by: this won't end until 2018 (if then), as the Browns now have the Texans first round pick in that draft.

Note on that:  Deshaun Watson won't be a big factor for the Texans in 2017.  They are contenders, and will win a bunch of games off an awesome defense and real skill talent on offense, but it's not unrealistic to expect 11 or fewer wins from them in that Division.  This pick should be between 20 and 25 overall.

What did the Browns get, aside from that pick, so far?

Corey and Shon Coleman, Kessler, Kizer, Rodney Kindredfield, Drango, Ricardo Lewis, Payton, and Jabrill Peppers.

Now Steve, trying to be fair, makes an analytical error: You don't need to list any of the picks directly descended from the initial megatrade root which were traded away for a clean analysis.

How other teams used those picks is irrelevant.  Talent evaluation is a whole separate issue, and absent the root-trade, none of those picks would have been owned by the Browns in the first place.

...I know, I've confused myself, too.  But here's what I mean:

The initial trade-down generated a bunch of picks.  The Browns then traded down again, and got several more picks for it.

All that counts on the other side of these two transactions is Carson Wentz.  That's it: Just him, period. The Browns side of this trade is the 16 picks they've turned that first trade into, period.

Ok now: There was another minor exchange of low picks in the original trade, in which the Eagles moved up and the Browns moved down in the 5th round or something.  If you want to be picky, you can list both sides of this.

Of more consquence are the Browns picks which were unrelated to the Wentz trade which were included in subsequent deals.  These count too.  I don't bother with these myself, but I do know that almost all of them involve 4th rounders and lower, and some are chickenshit low-round flips like the one I mentioned.

This article is about the Browns strategy, not talent evaluation.

As I've suggested before, Hue Jackson had to like Carson Wentz a lot...although-ahem- not quite as much as he would have liked Andrew Luck.

But most likely, Sashi and Paul asked him "What if I were to tell you I could turn this into 16 day one and two draft picks?"

"NO!  I want my average-or-better quarterback with sub-optimal accuracy and anticipation  NOW NOW NOW!"?  Would you have said that?  Would anybody with two gliel cells to rub together?  Even Marty?

It's way too early to judge this trade, as even the first installment of players have only one year under their belts (including Wentz).

But it's not too soon for me to ask you why you are shoveling dirt on Derrick Kindred, Kessler, the Colemans, and Lewis already.  Kindred looked like Chris Rockins prior to his injury--as a rookie.  Kessler was a nice surprise, and became a PFF favorite as a rookie, but that cuts no ice in Cleveland wow you guys.  Just wow.

As I create this literal masterpiece, I am priming myself for the fifth round, which the Browns own.  Unlike some of you, I'm not bored, or pessimistic.  While you've been napping, the Seahawks built a Superbowl team out of low picks and undrafted free agents.

This draft is packed with defensive back end players, and guys drafted in this 5th round would go in the third, or even the low second round in some other drafts ah! 

Cb Howard Wilson:  A TALL cornerback with great physical talent.  Injured/lost time; inexperienced.  Needs work.  The injury and inexperience pushed him down, but he has "first round talent" and there you go!  Is any of this sinking in yet?

"Skinny legs" blahblah gimme a break!  He's 6'1" 184 lbs.: Not ready for prime-time YET.  Look up "yet" in your Funk and Wagnal.

See?  Wait til 2018 for this guy, and he's probably a favorite to start outside, and a possible free safety!  This is how the Seahawks did it!

NICE PICK dammit!  Way to burn those 5th rounders up to nab a really talented slider!!!

Since I'm feeling magnanimous, I will tell you about arm length and reach:  Every boxer comprehends this, but to this day, some NFL draft gurus do not.

A lineman with long arms has a clear advantage over short guys, and as a rule of thumb, you need to favor guys with more reach on both sides of the trenches.

But let's go back down Memory Lane to Micheal Dean Perry.  Perry was 6'1" tall.  On top of that, his nickname was "gator", because he had disproportionately short arms.

MDP had amazing reflexes (plus anticipated snap-counts too much, which is why he was offsides a lot).  He had an amazing "first step", and exploded across the line before the guards (let alone center) could get their hands on him.  

He didn't try to avoid them.  He got "inside" on them, where his gator arms and quick hands allowed him to control them.  His shorter stature gave him built-in leverage (low man wins), and just as short-armed guys consistently out-bench longer-armed guys at the combine, MDP's functional strength, along with his hand-speed, was magnified.

Once he was inside those longer arms, it was over.  He punched them onto their heels, and flicked them off like dandruff.

This was the origin of the "if it's a Cleveland Brown you can tackle him" rule which plagued Carl Nassib last season, by the way.  In some games, MDP was tackled more than the running back.

It also caused a new official rule, which permitted offensive linemen other than the center to set up around a half yard deeper.  I call this the anti-Browns "MDP rule".

MDP was traded after that, and I defended it against all Oblivia.  MDP was a rare talent, and remained a productive player in the NFL, but never approached his production once this rule was instituted.

This leads me to another opportunity to educate my readers:

MDP's pending salary demands were on the exhorbitant side. All the fans loved him, and wanted the Browns to pay him whatever he asked.  Absent the new rule, which was designed specificly to neutralize him, the Browns might have paid him.

As it was, they got some value out of him in a trade.  This was a smart, if unpopular, move.  MDP never lived up to his new, massively inflated contract.  This was "analytics", before anybody came up with a fancy word for common sense.

And the Head Coach was Bill Belichick.

Oh another one: OT Roderick Johnson; an unmistakable stab at a Joe Thomas heir apparent.  He's nothing like Thomas athleticly, but he's 6'7" with massive reach.  He's a project in need of LOTS of work.  He could make the practice squad, or could get cut.

This IS the FIFTH ROUND, right?  Ok?

Oh crap maybe I need to go over this again:  First, the Browns general lack of talent, and Kessler's non-existance, are hyperbole.  Second, the notion that the Browns need to contend in 2017 or everybody gets fired is bullcrap, along with the notion that they CAN contend in 2017.  Third, if you think guys drafted in the fifth round and below can be "busts", you need a brain transplant.

Roderick Johnson will never replace Joe Thomas, period.  But he just might eventually become a top 15 left tackle, or a top 10 right tackle, in time.  OR, he might get cut in training camp.

The lower rounds are where smart people gamble on inexperienced and injured players, who generally played at lower levels of competition.  This season, special teamers are not as important, so the priority is sleepers and projects.

Johnson is pretty much useless in 2017, and will never matter on special teams.  He's a horrible mess mechanically.  His feet are slow...oknevermind but just trust me here:  The Browns drafted him because they felt that eventually he could be a decent left tackle.

Calculated risk.  I seem to be a rare bird in my comprehension of it.  I risk a 5th round pick on a 50/50 chance that in 3 years, this guy can at least be an above average right tackle, and at most an above average left tackle.

My downside here is that he doesn't even make the team.

Big deal he was a fifth round pick!

Hyperbole aside, the "one and fifteen" Cleveland Browns have a lot of talent, with the majority of it being emerging talent...

Caleb Brantley, another 3-tech DT candidate, might have gone much higher in the draft absent criminal charges against him which I will ignore here.  Not because I am an asshole, but because it is irrelevant, except as a reason for his slidage.

Innocent or guilty, Brantley is a good football player who will here compete as a 3-technique but could also be a 3-4 DE.

Loading up on 3-technique defensive tackles seems to be this draft's theme, like receivers was last year's.

I hereby guarantee you that Des Bryant will go the way of Gary, and that X Cooper will be a significant contributor this season.  

Larry Ogunjobi will be his main competitor.  All these guys will fight tooth and nail, with Gregg Williams on their asses at all times.  This is GOOD.

I don't care who drafted Xavier Cooper, by the way.  He can screw this up or not, but he remains the most ideally-suited/talented player for this role in a Gregg Williams defense.  He has MDP assets, sans the liabilities.

At least one of the defensive tackles drafted just now will be released.  Only in Cleveland would anybody call this a "bust".  I hope you are properly embarrassed, and ready to start thinking with your brain.

The Browns offense needed little in the first place, in the real world, despite stupidly losing Terrelle Pryor (which was stupid, by the way).

It's awesome that instead of just waiting for Bitonio and Greco to heal, Sashi hammered free agency the way he did to upgrade an already pretty good offensive line.  Now he has a top 5 offensive line, and probably the deepest in the NFL.

In case you don't know, your offensive line matters.  Most great offenses have a good offensive line.  Just sayin.

Now, you call Deshone Kizer a wasted pick.  You are probably wrong.  Too many (almost all) of the real experts rated him right with Mahomes upside/talent-wise.  Most of them now call this a great "value" pick.

Come on, man: You think you know better?

And LaCanfora aside, can you believe that Hue Jackson hates Kizer; that Sashi forced this pick against his will because Haslam told him to?  Over Webb?  Over Dobbs?

Do you also believe that 911 was George Bush's idea?  That Putin engineered Trump's election?  Jesus: Breathe in, breathe out...Deshone Kizer has real potential, and Hue Jackson is Hue Jackson.

BULLSHIT aside, I 90% guarantee you that Hue Jackson was who picked Kizer over Webb and Dobbs.

Bub, you are spitting into the wind here.  Between you and Hue Jackson on quarterbacks, I have to side with him over you.

Kizer was not forced on Hue Jackson, and Hue disagrees with you.  We'll see who was right.

Not that I'd kick Garopollo out of bed for eating crackers...

Last note: Expecting a 6'1" cornerback to "break in" as a nickel back is idiotic.  Somebody needs to pay me for this!

Oh here we go: Sashi Trump is "backpedalling" on the Brantley pick.  OMFG Pat Kirwan will get ahold of this...I won't be able to listen to NFL Radio for weeks!

Disclaimer:  If you punch a woman in the face, you are a scumbag.  "She hit me first" just makes it worse for you (girley-mon).

It sounds like Sashi blew this one.  This guy is radioactive.  Flush that pick.  Dammit.

Correction:  Brantley was originally projected as a late first, early second round pick, but tested poorly at the Combine.

He may be innocent, as witnesses have said he pushed her away from him, but never struck her.

This was Sashi Brown's attempt to grab a great value in the sixth round; a smart move.

Understand this:  If Brantley punched her, flush a sixth round pick.  If he did not punch her, then he did not punch her, and is innocent, and is a Cleveland Brown.  And deserves to be here. 

Have you ever been falsely accused of something?  Should that lie be held against you?  Low risk, high reward.  Smart bet.

  









No comments: