Monday, April 17, 2017

Cleveland Browns Draft Analyisis: New Crew, Renewed Hope

Ten days and counting to the Browns Superbowl!

The analyses have been surprisingly good lately, so I can't find anybody to pick on, except for those mock drafters who expect Mitch Trubisky to be available at #12.

That would be perfect for the Browns, of course.  I just don't think it's realistic.

I caught part of a radio show in which the prospect of trading first overall to the Redskins for Kirk Cousins was brought up.

I'd do it, if he had agreed to a long-term contract first, but I doubt that, too.

Peter Smith's "final" mock draft was really smart!  I still consider a trade-down (for Trubisky, Allen Robinson, Hooker and HIGH picks) as likely as not, but Pete picks Myles Garrett, which is ok with me.

Like another humble genius I know, he likes Patrick Mahomes at 12.  Peter thinks that Hue Jackson can coach him up for the 2018 season.  He didn't mention this, but Hue would also tweak the offense somewhat to ease the kid's transition.

I suspect that if the Browns had a different Head Coach, Peter might not make this pick, because Mahomes is really, really, extremely raw.

Once again, he takes defensive back Chidobe Awuzie atop round two.  Awuzie played every position on defense, but he looks fully capable of playing center field for Gregg Williams.

A note on this: Malik Hooker is the unmistakeable top dog at FREE safety here (Ed Reed).  Jamal Adams is more a stong safety, Troy Polumalu type.

Gregg Williams wants both of these (remember, Polumalu was part linebacker).  Awuzie looks like he could actually fill either role--but, as Peter notes, the Browns don't actually need strong safeties.

In several ways, Awuzie is as good or better than Hooker and Adams, because he can play any back end position, so Williams could move him around, depending on matchups and situations.

And while it seems doubtful that he could match either of these top two players in their respective roles, he has all it takes to be a close second in BOTH.

As Peter points out, because Awuzie played all over the place, he hasn't built a strong resume at any one position.  I can add here that he also has more upside at every position; notably at free safety.

Free safeties call coverages, and have to be brainiacs, almost like quarterbacks, pre-snap.  If they take a couple false steps, a 10 yard catch turns into a touchdown.  Awuzie has pretty much proven himself as a cornerback and strong safety, but free safety is a whole different gig.

Peter is loading up on free safeties as at #52 he drafts free safety Marcus Williams.  I'll trust Peter here: He gets turnovers, is a pure free safety, and does a lot of the same stuff as the more heralded Malik Hooker.

Pete doesn't say this, but my guess is that he's remembering DeValve and the three wide recievers drafted in 2016, and trying to create intense competition and great depth at a position of need.

This is one reason why I call this a very smart mock draft:  Williams and Awuzie duke it out at free safety.  The best man wins.

If it's Awuzie, then we have awesome depth at free safety, and Williams plays a lot anyway, as Awuzie moves around.  If it's Williams, then Awuzie plays the Polumalu role, and otherwise backs up free, nickel, and cornerback.

Atop round 3, it's once again tight end Adam Shaheen.  I love it!  He has a good chance of being there, and he has the tools to be a REAL tight end (as opposed to the Seth DeValve 2 Grossi blew the top second round pick on).

Shaheen played at the lowest level of competition, and will probably need a lot of work, but he has Gronkian physical traits.

I'm weary of being told to "pump the brakes" when I make these comparisons.  Gronk has Tom Brady throwing to him.  Shaheen has similar size, speed, hands, and toughness.  It's valid.  If he works hard and takes coaching, he can be like Gronk.  Yes, he can.

Hue Jackson wants at least one real tight end, who can block in-line AND catch passes (is that too much to ask for?  Seems like it IS!)

If drafted, Shaheen isn't a long-term project.  He can contribute as a receiver after awhile in 2017.  Unlike a wide receiver, he relies on his catch radius and physicality, and his route-tree (inside) is "shorter".  He's also more often a secondary or tertiary "eyeball" target, so if he's too deep or shallow on his route, he's still a good option for a quarterback under pressure (regardless of coverage.)  

Atop the 4th round, Peter likes DT Jaleel Johnson, who he says is best-suited to the 3-tech role, despite his poor combine numbers.

Pete says he's not fast, or explosive, but wins battles with excellent hands, technique, and leverage.  Pete sort of compares him to Broderick Bunkley, and feels he could be disruptive in that role, plus good vs the run, plus back up at nose or on the strong side.

Johnson is 6'2.5", 316 lbs, and plays faster than his timed speeds in real games.

I was glad to see Peter address this position, and will buy this pick for a dollar.

Atop round 5, Peter drafts cornerback Shaquille Griffin.  Griffin, at a shade under 6' and 194, benched 19 times and ran 4.38, ok?  

He needs refinement, except he's got the tackling part pretty much taken care of.  He has all the tools to become an elite cornerback with dedication and good coaching, but for now could be a great special teamer, and possibly actually play on defense in 2017.  Tremendous upside here!

Pete's second pick in the 5th round is an almost 6'3", 219 lb, 4.43 wide receiver project named Robert Davis, who I reckon Pete sees as best available.

Robert needs a lot of work on routes and technique, but has good hands, and his 3-cone and other combine numbers say he has great upside too.  This guy could knock one of the three wide receivers drafted in 2016 off the roster.

So be it.  Competition is good.  Competition works.

At the next 5th round pick it's linebacker Erick Wilson (another best available).  Erick is a little under 6'2" and 230 lbs., but is a converted safety.

He's a situational or depth guy in 2017, and (Peter doesn't say this) a good special teams candidate.

That's my own opinion, because Peter Smith thinks that he could immediately play WIL in in the base alignment (start), depending on what Gregg Williams makes of his roster.  

Williams (4.53 40, nice agility for his size), might be a huge sleeper.

By the way, Grumpy old man Buzz Kill Bill says there's no such thing as a sleeper.  I'm really getting sick of this guy.  I suppose he saw Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Joe Montana, and all those other lower round picks and undrafteds all along.  I mean, this guy is just...nevermind.

In round 6 it's DT Tanziel Smart, who could be a HUGE sleeper at 3-technique.  He played for Tulane, and led his team in tfls and sacks.

Like Johnson, his 5.36 40 time wasn't so hot, but he plays faster.  Unlike Johnson, his agility drills were impressive for a guy almost 6'3", 297 lbs.

His scouting report says he overshoots too much, is slow to change directions, isn't instinctive (my translation), and needs a LOT of work.

I like this pick fine too.  Peter is hammering another position of REAL need, and looking down the road apiece, toward sustained success.  Xavier Cooper needs to deliver, right tf now, or he could get CUT.

Peter's last pick is strong safety Shalom Luani in the 6th round.  This pick is more on combine numbers and college production than anything else, since he is another project with lots of flaws.

I personally would probably disagree with this pick if 
I'd done the research and film study that Peter does, because I see this guy as a probable cut.  

And I can tweak Peter's draft now, with my own:

Trade-down from first overall, to start with, to 5th overall for 18 overall, the Titans 2017 second round pick, and their 2018 first round pick:

No Myles Garrett.  DEAL with it!

Ok so then Trubisky if he's there at 5.  If he is, skip Mahones at 12 and nab some stud immediate impact player there instead.

If Trubisky is not there, then we might well settle for merely just that bumb 3 tech DT Jonathan Allen.  (Not sure how we'd survive this disaster).

Then Mahomes at 12, but Peter Smith is scrambling to adjust for the 3-tech being filled, and 18th overall on-deck.

I'll wildly guess that at 18 he would draft Ryan Ramscyk, who projects as a very good left tackle down the road, and a potential starter (certainly the best pass-protecting one) at right tackle  in 2017.

After that, I guess Peter would pick the same guys, except for the defensive tackles.

Peter might nab another edge-rusher or running back (despite the fact that we have too many of both already) because this draft is deep in both, and an upgrade is an upgrade.

Here's my bottom line:  Ramscyk, Allen, Trubisky, Howard, and Fournette don't suck.  A high second round pick probably won't suck.  A low 2018 first round pick probably won't suck. 

Myles Garrett might be better than all of these other guys individually (if he doesn't get hurt), but the chances of his offsetting Allen/Trubisky, Ramsczyk/Adams, a high 2017 second round and low 2018 first round pick are remote, here on this planet.

No, stop it: There is a new Sherriff in town.  What happened before he came here is utterly meaningless.  Declaring ANY player from his first draft class a bust is premature, not to mention hysterical.

And you read this now: I predict that the 2016 class will grade out at least above average over time, and the 2017 class will kick ass.  Trading down from Myles Garrett is smart, if these NEW guys know what they're doing...DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?

And when the hell did Jonathan Allen turn into a chump anyway?  When did Trubisky stop being a quarterback?  And when did Hue Jackson become mentally impaired?

Oh yeah I know: When he came to Cleveland!

Oknevermind.












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