Hue Jackson lists accuracy, processing speed, and "face of the franchise" leadership as his top ingredients for a franchise quarterback.
His secondary ingredients (call it "spices") are height, athleticism, and arm strength. I stress the word "secondary", because certain pundits have concluded that Hue Jackson didn't want Cody Kessler because he is slightly under 6'2" (which is amazing).
First, I have to throw out Kizer. I could be wrong, as some very knowlegable experts still rank him at or near the top of this class. It just seems to me that he is just plain not accurate enough for Hue Jackson.
The remaining top contenders are Trubisky, Watson, and Mahomes.
Trubisky has the accuracy, the consensus believes he has a good "processor", he's a home boy and a squeaky-clean, tough leader. Check-check-check.
Adequate height, athletic, good arm strength too, so he checks all Hue's secondary boxes as well. I'm absolutely certain that Hue would love to have him.
Watson has recently been panned for inaccuracy, but I can't see it. I can see that he's not as accurate as Trubisky, but he's okay in that dept., and he's got the "face" stuff in spades.
Everybody agrees that he's really smart, but smart opinions are split on his processing speed. Some say that he "sees the whole field" etc., but others (notably David Carr) say that he never moves his eyes off his primary receiver.
If true, this is a huge red flag. It indicates that Watson locks onto his primary, and doesn't process at all.
However, after what he did to Ohio State and Alabama (twice), I just have to think that David is overstating his case. No freaking way those defenses would have let Watson get away with first reads throughout those games.
Still, the "processing" thing with Deshaun is a potential issue for Hue.
He's a legit dual threat, but his velocity at the combine was measured at 49 mph, and no quarterback has succeeded in the NFL with that.
And yet, Mike Mayock has just moved Watson to the top of his quarterback list (Trubisky second, Mahomes third). As a defensive back, Mayock spots exploitable flaws in quarterbacks instantly.
I can only conclude that Mike (and many others) have not seen on film what the radar gun showed at the combine.
Still, Hue probably has to rate Watson at least a little below Trubisky:
Trubisky is more solidly built, has a stronger arm, better accuracy, and has demonstrated better processing speed in his limited starts.
Patrick Mahomes checks the accuracy and leadership boxes, but the "processing speed" is a big fat question mark in the Johnny Manswell playground offense he ran.
He is the most solid physicly, has the strongest arm, and is as athletic as Watson in general terms, but superior in his ability to throw with velocity and accuracy regardless of which way his body is turned, or what his legs are doing.
Mahomes's accuracy is being undersold, by the way: He may be the most accurate quarterback in this draft class.
I'm out of my depth on the "processing speed" stuff here. Mahomes is the most talented guy here, but if his brain isn't "wired" right, he can not succeed in the NFL, period.
But check his statistics, and the way he distributed the ball to every receiver. These are good signs. Mahomes didn't have Watson's highly draftable wide receivers, and might have had the worst defense in college football.
And I have to say this: This "He's a winner" stuff gets rediculous sometimes. When you hang 48 points on somebody and lose, it sure as hell isn't your fault, ok? Give me a freaking break with this mystical, irrational idiocy, will ya?
But I digress: Despite Mahomes being the most talented, and Watson doing what he did to who he did it to under the brightest lights possible, Trubisky is probably number one, and...I can't even speculate between Mahomes and Watson for Hue.
Trubisky has the highest floor, Watson is comparatively safe too, but Mahomes's upside is astronomical.
That takes care of my premises: I believe that Hue Jackson will rate Trubisky highest, Watson and Mahomes a second and close third (in either order), and that these will be the Browns primary quarterback targets in this draft.
The way things are looking, the Browns would have to draft Mitch Trubisky first overall to get him. He will probably be the first quarterback drafted. Now that the Niners are "open for business" at second overall, planning on Trubisky at 12 is delusional.
I don't believe the Browns would actually draft Trubisky (or anybody else) first overall instead of Myles Garrett.
What I DO believe is that the Browns could very well trade down from first overall.
This is a hostage situation, and the hostage is definitely Myles Garrett. He is, as I write this, being held for ransom. Every team in the NFL wants him. Some want him very badly.
They are calling Sashi Brown, making preliminary offers; "bidding", already. Sashi is telling them what other teams have offered him (possibly lying). This is already going on. Sashi said he'd take his whole fifteen minutes on draft day.
That told all the "bidders" that they need to have their king's ransom, break-glass-in-case-of-emergency offers pre-approved.
It is LIKELY that the Browns will trade down from first overall in this draft, because Myles Garrett is not a QUARTERBACK.
I've been listing the Titans at five as a hypothetical partner, since they're on the verge of contention, and Garrett could catapault them deep into the playoffs. Most sites expect the Titans to trade down, merely because they did that before. That's dumb. They're not rebuilding any more, obviously. Duh.
The Titans have the 18th pick in the first round. Per the value chart, (a general guide, and not the ten commandments, by the way), the Browns could expect the 18th pick in the first round and the Titans second round pick in 2017 (along with 5th overall).
With some arm-twisting, they might talk Sashi into accepting their 2018 first round pick instead of the second rounder this year, however. This is actually a more likely deal, so I'll roll with that:
The Browns would now have the 5th, 12th, and 18th overall picks in the 2017 draft, along with an extra low first round pick in 2018, see?
What happens next, I can't guess, because I can't read Hue Jackson's mind. NOW, trading back up with San Fran to nab Trubsky (if HUE JACKSON thinks he's worth it) would require (a little less than) 5 and 18 overall. It's also possible that he makes it to five.
Let's call that the price. Now, the Browns have Trubisky, what they started with, and either a midrange second round pick in this draft, or a low first round pick in the next.
If Trubisky is NOT a priority target, they can make sure to draft Watson or Mahomes, although it looks like one of the two should make it to 12.
In that case, the Browns choices at five include probably one of the top two safeties, 3-tech defensive tackles, OJ Howard, etc; all elite insta-starters and difference-makers who FIT here better than Garrett would have.
Imagine that! They "settle for" Mahomes or Watson at 12, and have 18 overall, the highly tradeable top second round pick...I'm almost rooting against Trubisky here! What a HAUL!!!
Do you get this? The quarterback, an elite difference-maker, AND 18th overall AND another second rounder this year or first rounder next year?
THAT is what Paul DePodesta really does. Is any of this starting to sink in yet?
Disclaimer: All of this is my imagination. I can't read Hue Jackson's mind (yet). I'm guessing with the Titans. I know nothing.
And I won't be too upset if they just draft Garrett instead.
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