Saturday, April 15, 2017

Browns Draft Lucid Sane Analysis

The mock drafts are starting to get really entertaining as we close in on the draft.  A lot of mockers have the Browns involved in a lot of trades.

My favorite is a three-way with Seattle and New England:  Seattle gets the Browns 12th overall, a fourth round pick this year, and maybe a third rounder in 2018.  New England gets Richard Sherman.  The Browns get Jimmy G.

This makes sense for Seattle and Cleveland, but I think Lord Insideous would want more.  Maybe Josh Gordon, and skip the 2018 third rounder?

Another one has the Browns moving from 12 to 2 with the Niners for Trubisky.  The price is about right: 12, 33, and two 2018 second round picks.

I want to hate this, but I'm not sure.  It depends on how Hue feels about Trubisky.

The buzz around our homie has become really positive lately from nearly everyone who is anyone (except of course the cranky old man: Buzz Kill Bill Polian).

Only Hue Jackson's opinion matters.  If HE thinks he can turn Mitch Trubisky into a franchise quarterback (but not Mahomes or Watson), then this is not too high a price to pay.

Everybody has an opinion.  Mine is that the top three quarterbacks are pretty close to eachother as prospects, and one or two should remain there at twelve.

But unlike most other fans, I am willing to defer to Hue Jackson on this subject, and won't burn any cars or break any windows should a trade like this happen.

I still prefer my hypothetical trade-down (last post) from first overall.  

I need to expand on this:  You know I agree that Garrett is a generational talent, and would love for the Browns to have him.  

But Jonathan Allen, who projects best as a penetrating defensive tackle, isn't chopped liver.  Everybody keeps talking about the Gregg Williams defense as if he runs a wide nine, and relies heavily on edge-pressure.

He does not.  He spreads pressure out, and likes inside pressure just fine.  That's what Allen would do here, and, in reality, upgrades the defensive line position the Browns need to upgrade.

X Cooper is "it" there on the current roster.  I'm hoping that in his third season, at a position he was born to play, under Gregg Williams, he will emerge as a havoc-wreaker, but can't count on it.

Allen is ready to rock, and about as close to a sure thing as Garrett is.  Allen would start immediately, and if X comes on strong, we have great depth and a strong rotation for the forseeable future.

Allen was an edge-rushing defensive end himself until his final college season.  He is now a defensive tackle with defensive end explosiveness and speed.

What about Malik Hooker?  Is he chopped liver now too?  He's been compared to Ed Reed and no, that is NOT hype.

Like Allen, he addresses a real need for the real Gregg Williams defense.  Williams blitzes more than around 75% of other defenses--or at least tries to.

He needs a center-fielder to do this.  That guy not only poaches passes from pressured quarterbacks, but has the range to head big plays off at the pass, as receivers are single-covered, and offenses tend to get rid of the ball quick vs the blitze.

I could go on with Lattimore, Adams, Thomas, etc.; all better fits, and some still there after a small trade-down from Garrett.

This isn't black and white, or absolute.  Simpletonians think in these terms: Myles Garrett is a god and everybody else is a punk.  A Jonathan Allen or a Malik Hooker would upgrade this particular defense as much as Myles Garrett would---maybe even more.

This is what Paul DePodesta looks for.  He is an efficiency expert.  In consultation with scouts and coaches, he looks for ways to exploit hype and...well...get free stuff!

Now that I have deprogrammed the Branch Garrettian indoctrination, let's apply this to Mitch Trubisky:

In my hypothetical trade, the Titans coughed up 5th overall, 18th overall, and their 2018 first round pick for Saint Myles.

Now, if the Browns want to trade up to second overall to nail down Trubisky, they could do it for 12 and 18, period.

In this case, the Browns gave up Myles Garrett for Hue's franchise quarterback and a 2018 lower third first round pick, instead of getting Garrett and Trubisky, and losing 3 second round picks, including number 33 in 2017.

I can see arguments on both sides of this, but if Hue rates Trubisky high enough, quarterback trumps everything else.

I think this, or something like it, is possible.  I know that Trubisky could be the only franchise candidate in this draft, and that waiting for the awesome next draft class is much, much riskier than drafting Patrick Mahomes at 12 this year.

Were it to play out like this, the Browns don't get Hooker, Allen, or any of the other top guys, but they retain the top pick in the second round this year, where they can definitely draft an elite cornerback, safety/linebacker hybrid, or probably a really good free safety after a trade-down.

They retain the other second round pick, which should yield another starter, and have the additional first round pick in 2018 (giving them FIVE first and second round picks in that draft!)

Of course, (this is just me here), I'm liking Mahomes more by the minute, and if Hue agrees, my hypothetical trade-down turns into a bonanza.

In this case, the Browns get Allen or Hooker 5th, Mahomes at 12, and have 18 and 33 on deck.

For the hell of it, I'll mention that Brad Kaaya just skunked Mahomes and several others in an accuracy contest.  He scored 19 (lower is better), and his nearest competition was 26.

You can't assume that Hue Jackson isn't eyeballing this guy, or somebody else nobody else rates high.  MKC's assumptions aside, Cody Kessler was a Jackson pick.

Ok but let's bring this full circle: What if something like that 3-way with Seattle and New England happened, and the Browns brought Garopollo down?

And THEN traded down from Myles Garrett?  Oh wow!  Here we are talking Jimmy G, Hooker or Allen, 18th, 33rd, 52nd etc.?  Rebuild OVER!  

This would be perfect.  Sashi would run out of roster room and start upgrading his lower picks into higher 2018 picks, because he'd have to start cutting good players otherwise!

This is DePodestian as well.  

I know, we all fantasize about this stuff, and it rarely happens, but dammit this really could!  

I know Seattle would jump for it, and so would the Browns.  The key is Lord Insideous, and what he gets out of the deal.  As the trade is proposed, for him it's Sherman for Garopollo, period.

Well, Sherman is a stud, but Bill doesn't really need him.  It's like the Myles Garrett thing: Bill denies it, but he is a DePodestian himself.  His cornerbacks don't suck.  Sherman would upgrade his secondary and it's depth, but not by that much.

I think he would try to extort more out of this deal (and won't blink first).

That's why I brought up Josh Gordon.  That would do it.  Gordon would do what Randy Moss did for him, and take the lid off opposing defenses.  HE would make a HUGE difference!

This sucks for me, because I've been defending Gordon all along, and calling him the best wide receiver in the NFL etc.  Losing him would really hurt the Browns.

But Josh is not a QUARTERBACK, so......

Seriously, this hypothetical trade has legs; it is actually possible. 

Sorry to redundate here, but you need to understand Bill Belichick's jam here: Whether he tenders or franchises Garopollo at the end of 2017, he is looking at committing over 22% of his payroll to quarterbacks.

Let me translate:  This is bad.  He does not want to do this.

As a non Branch-Bradyan blogging from an undisclosed location I must say this again: The only reason Bill Belichick would not trade Jimmy G now would be that he intends to trade Tom Brady after 2017.

That's what I would do.  

But I've never hoped to be wrong this much in my life, or as glad to be so massively outnumbered by smart people, because this trade, or something like it, would be just perfect for my Cleveland Browns.

I desperately cast about for support: There's Coby Brissett, right?  Bill drafted him, right?  So he can't suck that bad, right?

Maybe Bill actually does believe that Tom Brady is immortal, like everybody else (except me) does!

Yeah...ok yeah I'm crazy that must be it...ok so Bill can't afford 40 mil for quarterbacks and has to trade Jimmy G now.  Yeah, that's the ticket!  

I can safely say this right now: The Browns top two quarterback targets are Jimmy G and Mitchell P, in that order.

Deeper: Lord Insideous is getting old.  He wants to win more Superbowls, and possibly even retire eventually.  Even though he is more realistic about Tom Brady's longevity than literally everybody else is, he might just want to win the next two, or even three, Superbowls.

This rationally supports a Garopollo trade!  We're still in business!  I feel better now.

It's going to be fun on draft day.  I predict that the Browns will make at least three trades, one way or another.  I predict that one of them will be down from Saint Myles, and that the Browns will draft at least one quarterback. 


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