Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Ckeveland Browns: How the Draft Was Won

First, a self-correction:  PFF graded Gary Barnidge as the best pass-blocking TE in 2016.  I've been knocking him for being indifferent, and still say he was in run-blocking, but I was half-wrong.  Sorry Gary.

A tight end pass-blocking in "max-protect" usually isn't good.  While sometimes it means the offense is going deep, it's more often because one of the tackles is overmatched by a DE or outside linebacker.

It deprives the quarterback of a big target, and (in the aforementioned case) allows the defense to gang up on the top receiver, or shut down deep routes.

Ideally, whoever plays quarterback for the Browns will get rid of the damn ball on time this season, so Njoku can do what he does best, and rip big holes in opposing defenses with his matchless run-after-catch ability.

Seventeen yards per catch for a TIGHT END do you get this?

Some of you can't figure out why the Browns didn't draft a wide receiver.  Well, in addition to the two tight ends who run like wide receivers, there are the three wide receivers drafted in 2015 who you sent to the cornfield after they failed to impress as rookies.

In and of itself, this is pretty ignorant, because these young players have real talent.

You're also ignoring the fact that Hue Jackson uses more two-tight end sets, and two-back sets including a fullback, than most other Coaches.  Also, the fact that both Duke and Crow line up in the slot (with Johnson sometimes outside) minimizes reps for number three wide receivers.

Rightly or wrongly, Hue also leaned on "trusty old veteran" Andrew Hawkins at the expense of these three rookies not named Coleman.  I'm still waiting for Hue's reply to my email.  "Message undeliverable" nice try, Hue!  C'mon quit kidding around!

Wide receiver was about the last thing the Browns needed.  Pat Kirwan is suggesting the Browns sign the venerable Anqwan Boldin, so he can teach the youngsters how to run around and catch footballs.  Yes, Kenny Britt is far too inexperienced to fill this critical role.

Quarterback is a little different, and it's possible they sign a veteran like (ideally) Fitzpatrick, but not to start.  I said, not to start.  You're going to keep shoveling dirt on Kessler right up til game one, no matter what, aren't you?  It's like the wide receiver thing.  He's right there in front of you, and you look right through him.  Amazing.

I'm not even counting Osweiller out completely.  Hue Jackson is a whole lot more Kubiak than he is O'Brien, and Brock did a good job in that system.

The Browns probably don't make a move at quarterback til they see what they've already got.  I'm sure if they can get a decent draft pick out of Osweiller they'll bribe somebody to trade for him, but if that doesn't happen, they won't cut him unless he really does suck.

Pundits don't seem to understand this:  If they cut him, another team could pay him three cents and leave the Browns on the hook for the balance of his salary.  Unless he is not one of the three best quarterbacks on your 2017 roster, you just plain keep him.

You don't cut him just to cut him.  That would be almost as stupid as cutting Josh Gordon.

Speaking of which, I'm glad Goodell got bood all night.  Why is he stalling on the kid's re-instatement?  It's vindictive and unneccessary.

Mike Silver did a nice report on what went on in the Browns war room during this draft.  None of it surprised me.  

Jim Miller says "Aha!  Hue Jackson thought Mahones had the most upside of anybody in the draft!  There it is, right there in writing!"  Wow they BLEW IT didn't they?  This means they hated the vastly inferior Kizer!  They should have traded up for the quarterback of Hue's dreams instead!

Jeez.  And he's calling Njoku a two-year project who can't block!  Holy crap!  Mahomes/Howard great, Kizer/Njoku/a 2018 first round pick suck now!  They're just freaking insane--Kirwan must have brainwashed his partner Miller.  But I digress:

I wanted Malik Hooker as much as Hue Jackson did, but what Mike didn't mention is the fact that Hue had to be happy with both Jabrill Peppers and a 2018 first round pick instead.

The consensus narrative is that Hair-Trigger Haslam is poised to fire everybody again, and that Hue is the one on the hot seat.  

If that were true, Hue would not like this move, because he couldn't care less about future draft picks.  But it's not true.  Hue expects to win a few games this season, because he knows he has the talent.  He expects to be in that war room in 2018, so Peppers and that draft pick were fine with him.

Silver is absolutely right about Jackson's efforts to minimize the quarterback position, at least for now.  Second and six or less.  Third and two or less.  A lead or a close game.  Good field position.  Getting rid of the ball quickly.  Running when they know it's coming.  Big tall guys who come down with jump balls.  Guys who take little stuff to the house. Great protection.

You don't need Aaron Rodgers if you have all that.

Per Silver, Hue agreed with me that Patrick Mahomes had the most upside of any quarterback in this draft class.  I'm here to tell you that Kizer was right behind him.

Kizer can be very accurate, with great touch, but unlike Mahomes, he needs his feet planted.  He can throw on the move, but without the same touch or accuracy.

Most quarterbacks are like this, including the Mannings and Brady, so it's not that bad.  Unlike those guys, and like Mahomes, Kizer is dangerous on the ground, so he has that edge.

Because Mahomes can do everything wrong and still make make lemons into lemonade, he's a little ahead of Kizer.  Kizer can't get away with bad mechanics like Patrick can.

They both need a lot of work, but Kizer does have a few edges:  His decision-making is a little better; he's more careful with the ball.  His height really is an advantage.  He does project better as a true stand-and-deliver pocket passer.

He's not finished growing yet, and should get bigger.  It was dumb of him to compare himself to Cam Newton, but he could get that big over time.

Hue no doubt had his eyes on Mahomes, but probably saw Kizer as a close second.

The Browns might indeed have hoped for Dalvin Cook at 52, but it's still likely that they would have taken Kizer even if the running back had been available.  They were probably expecting Kizer to be gone.  Dalvin Cook was a best available target.

The next quarterback option probably was, indeed, Joshua Dobbs.

I still do not believe that the Browns ever had more than a casual interest in AJ McCarron.  Their offer might have been a 4th round pick.  They probably balked at a third round demand.

The only things AJ has on Cody are a couple inches in height and no concussions.  I wouldn't be surprised if the whole thing was pure speculation, and no talks even took place.

So: Kizer ranked higher than Dobbs (and all non-quarterbacks including Cook), but they expected him to be gone by the 52nd pick.

Silver wrote a fine article, but probably just heard them talking about Cook (or Melifonwu) at 52, and Dobbs later, because Kizer was written off, and he didn't fill in the blanks.

No way did the Browns share everything with this writer.  Competitors knowing "operational details" of this draft could give them a huge advantage over the Browns in future drafts.

It's also probable that they fed Silver some disinformation as a prophylactic measure.

Ross Tucker likes Roderick Johnson quite a bit as an eventual Joe Thomas successor.  That's really good news.  Ross is my go-to offensive line expert.

It is looking more doubtful that Caleb Brantley punched that woman.  In addition to his witnesses, the woman's attorney wasted no time in threatening a civil suit and proposing a settlement, which was rejected.

I have heard that one of the assistant coaches at his college warned NFL reps to avoid Brantley, even as an undrafted free agent.

The guys on NFL Radio are taking that with a grain of salt.  They say that's being sensationalized.  This was one individual.  Usually if there really is a problem, further investigations turn up more than that.

Brantley was considered a low first/high second round talent.  You know they were looking hard at him.

I'm cautiously optimistic that Brantley is the victim of an extortion plot, and a bunch of you have presumed him guilty until proven innocent.

I could be wrong, but if I'm right, this could be the biggest steal in this year's draft.

When you include Rodney Nassibfield, this defensive line could be as scary as the new/improved Browns offensive line!

Hey, this might have something to do with winning football games!  It's just a theory:  Do teams with dominating offensive and defensive lines win more games hmmm...

Well I'll research that and get back to you.

Wait just read this:  I'm embarrassed for a certain local writer who updated the hypothetical Browns depth chart following the draft.

Most obviously, X Cooper and Jamie Meder are defensive tackles.  In an emergency last season, they had to play 3-4 defensive end because there was nobody else left except for Carl Nassib.

Meder is a running down situational guy, and Cooper is a top contender for the 3-tech spot.  Niether is a defensive end.

The disposition of the linebackers is muddled, but I can tell you that Nate Orchard, Cam Johnson, and Tyrone Holmes are not ideal 4-3 outside linebackers.  Johnson and Orchard have been surprisingly good in coverage, so they might be adequate on the strong side, but they are first and foremost edge-rushing defensive ends in this 4-3 defense.  They are not true linebackers.

Christian Kirksey WILL be the weak side linebacker (no inside backers in a 3-4 why do you expect a 3-4 are you kidding me?).  Jamie Collins is as capable in the middle as he is outside, and Joe Shobert looks a ton better outside in a 4-3 than he did in a 3-4.  Shobert is a real linebacker.  Keep an eye on him--you buried him alive as a rookie in a 3-4.

Gregg Williams will love his blitzing and instincts.

The prevalence of spead offenses and the personnel already on this defensive roster screamed 4-3 before the Browns drafted two 3-tech defensive tackles and an edge-rushing defensive end.

I like this writer, but this was really bad.




No comments: