No it's true! I know I know, it's all about the quarterback. But my research indicates a crazy cooincidence dig this: Most elite quarterbacks have really good offensive lines isn't that crazy? What's more is so do most elite running backs!
No honest! I guess the great quarterbacks and running backs must make their offensive lines look good!
I'm not among those who think da Bearss were dumb to trade up one slot for Trubisky. If they believed he was the Savior, they had to make sure.
But Bill Polian is fulla crap on this: He's calling the Browns dumbasses for "announcing" that they were looking to trade up for him.
1: They never said that. The "sources" for these rumors might even have been fictional. It could have been fake news, or disinformation.
2: Even if the Browns were feeling out teams above 12 about trades, they probobly never even called the Niners! The price for that move would have been unbearable.
Get a GRIP on this thing! Greg Cossell (and Buzz Kill Bill, for that matter) doesn't regard Trubisky as an elite prospect. They feel he can be a solid starter, but that's about it.
Mahomes or Kizer have the upsides in this draft. Mitch is just safer.
You don't cough up 12, 33, 52, another first round pick, and then some for safer.
Somebody else might have aced Chicago out of Trubisky, but not the Browns.
Guys like Kirwan and Polian get just plain stupid when it comes to Browns-bashing. They're smart people, but when it comes to "moneyball" or the Browns, they revert to their respective playground punkdoms.
Anyway Greg Cossell thinks David Njoku was a smart pick by the Browns, and says he's not even sure that Howard is the better player.
He thought the Kizer pick, where it was made, was also smart, because "he's got some traits". (That's just how Greg talks. He means Kizer has great potential).
He forsees Kessler starting (He respects Cody Kessler btw) initially, as Kizer does need lots of work. But he calls Hue Jackson "the right coach" to develop him...hey! I bet Greg reads my blog!
Ok but in reality,
Many think he should get the last 7 starts after the week nine bye. But Hue isn't your typical Martonian blockhead, and might just put him in at garbage time, or even use him like a bullpen pitcher (except replace him with the starter again) even in games that aren't out of hand.
But sticking with the in-the-box theory (Kizer starts game ten), here's what could happen:
1: He stinks, and Hue has to hook him. In that case, he might give him another shot in a week or three after some remedial work.
2: He does a good job handing off, throwing bubble screens, pitching out, throwing quick slants, and running/sliding after two reads. In that case, Hue has him do just a little more the following week.
Wait-to clarify: Kizer would absolutely go deep in his first start. Just not a LOT. I'm generalizing ok?
Now, we are assuming that by week nine, the Browns are not realistic contenders for the playoffs. This is realistic, since this is the AFC North. The baby Browns could "surprise" 3-4 teams and "luck out" 3-4 times, but the Bengals and Steelers should have at least 6 wins each, and maybe nine.
Also, if there is a chance, Kizer would be on a short leash.
But get out of your damn box here: Hue talking about "minimizing" the quarterback wasn't political bullcrap. It is possible that a DeShone Kizer could screw up more than a Cody Kessler, but still win just as many games.
Honest! Go back to the start of this post! If you can hand off, pitch out, lob it ten yards, etc you should do ok in this offense.
Anyway, most of you can go fly a kite, because this team will have terrific offensive and defensive lines and lots of team speed and several "playmakers" and Rodney Cowellfield and should win at least six games, c?
I'm partly so confident here because I grew up in Cleveland:
The Browns had the first overall pick in a draft with the weakest quarterback crop in recent memory. How utterly predictable.
2018 is expected to be yield a bumper crop of Franchise quarterbacks...ok I need to upgrade my win estimate to 8 games ok?
You know why, of course.
However, the Jimmy G thing might well come up again, there's that Kirk Cousins guy, and we got two first and three second round picks and lotsa money and stuff, so Hue needs to see DeShone Kizer in action, because the "minimizing the quarterback" stuff only goes so far.
Based on (real) expert consensus, I am (extremely) cautiously optimistic about
Cam Newton might be a more accurate model: Newton is actually bigger and faster, and I think throws more accurately on the move. But Kizer has better touch and accuracy overall...
Ok if you tossed Ryan and Newton in a blender you might come up with Kizer...
Well not exactly. Ryan is called "Matty Ice" for coming through under pressure, and Cam is a charismatic leader. DeShone hasn't shown this stuff...but then, he's only 20 years old...it's hard to pin him down yet.
He IS as smart or smarter than both of those guys. He will be under Hue Jackson's wing.
Whether or not Kizer matures into a franchise quarterback, I think his FLOOR is "a dependable starter" after three years.
We have seen, with Trubisky and (especially) Watson, how well they respond to adversity in the crunch. This is why I personally had them (along with the just freaking amazing Mahomes) as my top 3 guys.
I remain concerned about Kizer's psychology. Some things can't be taught. You are who you are.
Oh wait! John Elway sucked as a rookie! He got behind in games and threw interceptions. Yeah he was trying to fight back, but he was just "flailing". He grew into the "comeback kid" only later.
Niether of the Mannings are anything like Tom Brady as leaders (ps they both sucked as rookies too).
Brady gets in people's faces. The Mannings are soft-spoken. Leadership often comes with experience and and proving one's self. There are more self-made than born leaders.
I guess I think DeShone Kizer checks all the boxes except this one: When all else is lost, and it's all on YOU, how do you respond?
It's much deeper than it sounds. For some people, the world grows quiet, and slows down. They see everything, including that sneaky bastard safety about to jump their primary target's route. They feel pressure, and automaticly take a step to give a blocker an edge, without thinking. They check down, already knowing what they'll see, because they saw how the pattern started in their peripheral vision, and now know what that bastard safety is up to, and...
Well, most of us aren't like that, and this is what separates franchise quarterbacks from just pretty good quarterbacks. The key is the "time slowing down" part. That doesn't happen for most of us. Most of us sorta just panic, and throw to our primary receiver (or run for our lives).
DeShone Kizer should be an average or better starting quarterback 3 years from now, has a good chance of being a top 8 guy, and could be a top 5 guy. He is definitely better than Trent Dilfer, and can win a Superbowl with some help.
Cossell is smart, so he didn't ignore the 2018 first-round pick which came with
Greg came as close to ranting as he ever does in mentioning the Browns' "team speed" on defense. He's not just talking about Garrett and Peppers, but also about Collins, Ogbah, Nassib, and Calhoun. He might also have been considering defensive ENDS Orchard, Johnson, and Holmes.
More on Peppers here: The Seahawks do a lot of what Williams wants to do here. Cam Chancellor is their linebacker/safety hybrid.
I guess Dick LeBeau pioneered this when his Steelers drafted Polumalu. This system isn't widely adopted yet because Defensive Coordinators tend to lack creativity (and tend to react ), and because mutants like Chancellor, Polumalu, and Peppers are rare...
Well that's enough for you to chew on for now. Okbye.
No a final thought: A smart guy on NFL Radio just explained away the maniacal hostility and derision of Polian and Kirwan for this front office by talking about how interviews and intuitive stuff matters too.
Well, TRUST ME Sashi and co GET THAT! These goobers are all utterly and completely clueless about what is going on here.
They think in the box. They hear "moneyball" and "analytics" one time, and forever after go off their kneejerk first-read emotional reaction to these trigger words.
Everything they read or hear is filtered through this crap-filter, and comes out as crap. They can not be objective. They see what they expect to see, no matter what.
This is exactly the sort of emotional, prejudiced, subjective non-thinking that Paul DePodesta is here to answer.
Screw the trigger words! THINK with your BRAIN. Didn't I just burn up several paragraphs trying to figure out Kizer's psychology and trying to identify unquantifiable and abstract traits?
It's more than an algorythm! They GET it! I know! I was trained to think like them! All these old guard bashers and their apologists are egomaniacs.
Bill Belichick has been operating on nearly identical principles for decades. Jimmy Johnson did this.
Here's the deal: If what you call "analytics" or "moneyball" prevents you from trading away most of your current and part of your next draft for a quarterback you think should eventually be above average, this is a GOOD thing!
If your numbers say that would be stupid, thank God for numbers.
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