Monday, May 22, 2017

The Browns Secondary, Gregg Williams, and What it Means

So, the Browns current front office is ranked fourth in the NFL.  The popping sounds you are hearing are heads coming out of butts nationwide.

You will probably not hear that sound from Buzz-Kill Bill Polian, who never met a "moneyball" move he didn't hate.

Oh yes, did you know that having more draft picks does NOT increase your odds of succeeding in the draft?  It's true, and Bill insists he can prove it!

Well, Bill built two awesome teams, and deserved his Hall of Fame induction, but insane is insane.  That hypothesis does not pass go.  It warrants no further comment.

Two is better than one, Bill.  Every single time.

Anyway I'm glad that at least the National guys are giving Sashi, Paul, and Andrew some props.  Remember this next time Grossi says they're on the hot seat, or this or that fifth round pick "disappointed" as a R O O K I E.

Now that the latest news is in: DB Jason McCourty is on board, and Howard Wilson should be available later this season after all; let's prognostificationalize the 2017 secondary:

A bunch of people immediately predicted that McCourty would displace Jamar Taylor at cornerback.  This is stupid, because Taylor ranked among the best cornerbacks in the NFL last season.

There is also no rational reason to write  28 year old Joe Haden off, simply because he played most of last season with groin injuries on both sides.

As Peter Smith pointed out, Taylor did play well in the slot, but with all due respect to Pete, he played just as well outside.

Brien Boddy-Calhoun is the microbe to beat in the nickel this season.  It seems like there are always tons of smurf corners in every undrafted class, and that Sashi and company always scoop them up.

If anybody at all beats Calhoun out, he will be awesome, because Calhoun was terrific as a rookie.

Seriously, although McCourty should be an upper-echelon cornerback once he has recovered from his own groin issues, the most likely starters at cornerback in 2017 remain Taylor and Haden.

McCourty took a really cheap two-year deal to sign with the lowly Browns.  He's being paid like a backup, which is one reason why this signing was an excellent one.  He can play most positions in a Gregg Williams secondary (all except strong safety).

That's what makes the free safety contest even more interesting.  Jason's twin brother, Devin, is an elite free safety with the New England Patriots...

Ok I'm not sure about that, since Bill usually runs a cover two defense.  I don't know why to this day nobody in Cleveland seems to understand the difference.

Most likely, ignorant people are calling Devin a "free safety" simply because the other guy outweighs him.

Still, a bigger cornerback who is smart and can tackle is a good candidate for free safety here.

Gregg Williams, per all his former players, plays no favorites.  His best players will start, at each position, period.

The free safety position is wide open, and McCourty will be a top contender.

Gregg will have the coverage part covered with this group of contenders, and that's the top priority.  A close second is tackling, and that's what will decide the winner here.

My own favorite before J McCourty signing was Kai Nacua, who is an interception machine with adequate height and nice speed, and who is an experienced center-fielder.

Kai has a nasty attitude and likes to hit people, but I've read some reports about taking poor angles vs the run and stuff.  I'm not sure about that, as I've seen contradictory reports.

He's still my favorite, since he's the younger, bigger guy.

Then there's McCourty, of course, and after that Tyvis Powell.

Powell has everybody except Nacua beat physically.  He's 6'2", 211 lbs.  He is faster, but less agile than the 6', 205 lb Nacua, and he started for Ohio State (at free safety).

His biggest problem is that he hasn't generated turnovers.  He's got experience in perhaps the best secondary in the NFL (the Seahawks), and is very much "in" this race.

Now, I don't want to pick on anybody here, but Derrick Kindred is not a serious contender for this slot.  Ibraheim Campbell is taller and faster, and has an outside shot entering his third season.

There are two more undrafted contenders, including another interception machine, but I can't list them all, and have to use poor combine numbers as my final filter.

I've been wrong a lot, so these guys shouldn't be dismissed.  But if one of them can take the free safety trophy away from the aforementioned crew, they'll be pretty damn good.

Williams has strong safety (and linebacker/safety hybrid) covered in spades.

Jabrill Peppers is the obvious one, but Rodney Kindredfield is right behind him, along with Rodney Campbellfield.

The Dangerfields are fully qualified strong safeties.  They played in a two-deep system last season, and have yet to actually get to play at strong safety in the NFL.  

That's what they do best.  Gregg Williams, if he does stick to his ideal one or three-deep scheme, will give these two a much better "fit".  And they are both being massively underrated.

In reality, as I've redundated a lot, the real base defense will be a nickel.

For the 2017 Browns, this most likely means (technically speaking) a 4-2, to keep Kirksey and Collins on the field.

Calhoun is one guy who will come and go, depending on the opposing offense.  If they use a microbe slot guy, he's there.  If it's a big guy (that's the trend btw), he's not the "fifth" DB.

The real base secondary should feature Taylor and Haden at cornerback, Peppers at "strong safety", the winner of the Sweepstakes at free safety, and "somebody else".

The somebody else could be a strong safety, or...well I just don't know.  What I do know is that if somebody emerges out of this free safety race as a pretty good player, Gregg has everything else thoroughly covered.  

We can now factor in Howard Wilson later this season.  This is a very good outside cornerback with free safety potential (eventually).  

Wilson is not an explosive athlete, but is really smart and has great instincts and ball skills.  He is vulnerable in press/man coverage because he can't catch up well, but is excellent in off-man or zone, and here again, Gregg Williams has a place for him.  Gregg Williams does not rely on press coverage.

Howard is 6'1", 188 lbs as of the combine, but should weigh over 191 lbs by the time he shows up (and over 196 by 2018).

With all undue respect to clueless pundits, the Browns secondary is solid and very deep, with the possible exception of free safety (I said possible gdammit can't you read English?)

They're extremely talented and deep strong safety, reasonably strong and very deep at cornerback, and will be at least very deep at free safety.

The secondary looks really good for 2017 if Gregg goes 1-3 deep, but better if he shocks YOU and goes 2-deep...which he has, and can, and might, fy clueless i.

Still, the recent signings and current roster speak to a concerted attempt to land a true center-fielder, and the probable success of said attempt.

Gregg really wants to use his Buddy Ryan defense, and has inherited ideal front 7 people to make it work.  

Pray for a free safety, because if he gets one, the 2017 Browns defense could be shockingly good.

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