Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Objective Assessment of Browns 2017 Talent

Listen to me here.  On 5/8/2017 I'm telling you this:

The 2017 Cleveland Browns are one of the most talented teams in the NFL, right now.  Please stop laughing long enough to read my disclaimers for those who can't read english:

I did not say or imply that the 2017 Browns would go to the Superbowl, win the AFC North, or even have a winning record.  I did not call Cody Kessler Joe Montana.  I did not say every player in the roster is the best at his position in the NFL, or that any position couldn't be upgraded, or that nobody will get injured or be a bust or screw up a lot.

I just said they are very, very talented.  That is all.

Why are you laughing?  Are you mentally impaired, or just a sheep?  Baaah!  Baah!  You're laughing because you think that's what you're supposed to do to be "popular".  Yeah that's right you're a teenager!

Here is my opening and closing argument.  You be the jury:

Let's go position group by position group, starting with the big boys in the trenches:

Thomas, Bitonio, Tretter, Zietler and Coleman or Erving.  The first four are all elite players.  We can argue about Shon Coleman and Cam Erving at right tackle, but I'm telling you that whoever wins that battle should be at least average.

What does this mean?  It means one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  Possibly THE best.  Four guys with realistic Pro Bowl aspirations?  Am I talking to a wall here?  Anybody home?

But wait!  There's MORE!  Greco is one of the best guards in the NFL, a decent center, and FYI a pretty good right tackle as well!  Two very athletic second year centers are fighting to back up Tretter, and they'll be all pumped up in their second seasons, so this is also one of the DEEPEST offensive lines in the NFL.

Don't argue.  These are facts.  Face the facts.

Garrett Shelton Ogbah and uh...well I don't know there are now three guys fighting over 3-tech defensive tackle.  Well Garrett is obvious, Danny Shelton last season became a damn good player, and is only coming into his third season.

He won't do much nose tackle any more, so he won't get ganged up on so much.  Ogbah came on strong late in his rookie season after his linebacker stuff was scrapped for defensive end.  He only got four sacks, but they came late (at least two on stunts.  He stunts as well as any defensive end).

The 3-tech isn't like right tackle, because all three contenders here are real penetrators and mess-makers.  I don't expect a superstar here, but guarantee you an above-average rotation.

As that is, what do we see?  A first overall draft pick called a "generational talent", a big defensive tackle getting ready to make his first Pro Bowl, another defensive end whose rookie numbers project to possible double-digit sacks in 2017, and an above average under-tackle.

But that's only so far, because defensive lines rotate heavily, so here comes Rodney Nassibfield, the depth at under-tackle, Cam Johnson, Tyrone Holmes, and maybe Nate Orchard at defensive end.

Now, I do now think that a no doubt pumped up Nassib might indeed show up at under-tackle sometimes on passing downs, and Orchard or Johnson could still stand up on the strong side, but this just hammers home my overall point:  There is lots of talent here!

But ok getting back in the box, this is definitely a top ten defensive line.  Probably better than that.

Let's go to the overinflated position right now: Quarterback.  Well, if Cody Kessler had played sixteen games in his rookie season, he would most certainly have ranked in the top 20, and more likely the top 15.  Completion percentage, td/int ratio, etc.

He returns for his second season a little bigger and stronger, and publicly promising to get rid of the damn ball.  He'll have more refined weapons and better protection, and it's year two in Hue's system.

Cody Kessler DOES.  NOT.  SUCK DO YOU UNDERSTAND!?!

I don't count Osweiller out under Jackson, on this team, but leaving him aside, if we're talking talent then Kizer sure counts ok?

I'll be conservative and just say quarterback is in the top twenty (for now).  That's below average---what do you want?

Sticking with offense, let's hit tight end.  Here we find Njoku, DeValve, and Telfer (although Holtz could make a move here and knock Telfer out--he's talented too).

Njoku will be a big-time weapon out of the gate.  He is as talented as any tight end in the NFL.  Telfer is mainly a "flex" tight end (glorified wide receiver), but as such looks solid (at least average).  Telfer is a really good blocker, which makes him an average in-line tight end.  

Njoku is a top five guy easy.  The unit as a whole is top 10.

Running back isn't hard. They caught lots of passes and averaged 5 ypc even before the offensive line upgrades.  Top ten.  I should say top 5, but I'm bending over backwards to curb my own enthusiasm.

Wide receiver:  Well Corey Coleman's rookie season is irrelevant.  He has top ten talent.  Hands, separation, speed, yards after catch.  Kenny Britt is top ten too.  Size, routes, deep speed.  I'll leave Gordon out, but I shouldn't, because he'll be back. (Note: I'm defaulting Britt to X and Coleman to number two or the slot here.  They're top ten in two sub-groups of 32 each)

The other young guys are talented, but Ricardo Lewis is moreso.  He's faster than the other guys.  Talent-wise, Ricardo Lewis is elite.

Where are we with this?  Top ten talent, 3-deep at wide receiver.

Note: Hue won't take Njoku off the field.  Devalve is as likely as Lewis to fill the role of a third wide receiver, and a running back will do that too sometimes.  The Browns can run a 4-wide with only two wide receivers.

Reviewing the offense, we have a top 20 quarterback, top ten running backs and wide receivers, a top 5 tight end, and a top 5 offensive line.  I'm trying to find the lack of talent...

Oh you must mean Kessler!  Yes he's a quarterback, and this is Cleveland!  I get it now!  It's really stupid to expect him to be worse than he was as a rookie, and to indict the other 10 guys for it, but I get the sick, tortured logic!

Moving on to the linebackers, I see Jamie Collins, Kirksey, Davis, Carder, and Schobert (maybe Orchard and/or Johnson).  Collins is a top 5 talent, and Kirksey easily top 10.  Demario Davis wasn't very good, but Schobert steps into the 4-3 he was meant to play in...well just overall this is probably a top ten corps.

Cornerback has Joe Haden returning with his groin fixed, Calhoun was really good last season, and Jamar Taylor finally lived up to his own scouting reports.  Marcus Burley is a solid veteran, and Howard Wilson is a ball-hawk.

This corps was unfairly maligned last season for not being able to cover receivers for five, six, or more seconds.  In reality, no cornerback can.  Top 15.  That's conservative.

Safety is mixed up.  Jabrill Peppers is the starter at strong safety.  He needs to polish up his coverage, but he'll play WIL in some sub packages and is terrific vs the run already.  But remember we're talking about talent here, and he has top five abilities.

Behind him are Campbell and Kindred.  Campbell hasn't been very good, but Kindred played well until he was hurt.  Both are pretty talented, but I'll be nice and just say top 20.

Free safety is tough.  Reynolds looks pretty solid but not special.  Tyvis Powell could surprise this season.  Kai Nacua is actually my favorite to start there this season, and he has top ten talent.

I don't care that nobody drafted him.  It doesn't matter.  Go back and look at how the Seahawks built their secondary.

I want to call free safety top 10 based on Nacua, but I'll settle for top 15; and a top 15 secondary.

I guess the "glaring need" is not having Malik Hooker at free safety.

Top ten defensive line, top ten linebackers, top 15 secondary.  It's not as loaded as the offense, but how can you say it lacks talent?

What about "playmakers" in general?  Corey Coleman, Njoku, Britt (that's right Kenny Britt dammit), Collins, Peppers, and Garrett are a few.  I want to add DeValve, Nacua, and Wilson but won't.

It's glaringly obvious to any objective observer that the 2017 Browns are not only very talented, but don't have any glaring needs at all.  Their worst starter at any position is probably above average compared to his peers (ok except maybe quarterback).

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I rest my case.






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