Saturday, May 20, 2017

Cleveland Browns Probable 2017 Offense

Hue Jackson has historically adapted his offensive schemes to his personnel (and specific opposing defenses).  Everybody who talks about the types of players Hue likes best, or his favorite schemes, is guessing.

Hue never had more than a minor voice in choosing which players he was given to work with, so these pundits are basing these Olympic Calibre conclusion-leaps on how he made the most of what he had.

Since he's become a Head Coach again, now we can start making educated guesses about what he's up to.  Not until now has he had a strong voice in which players are targeted and signed.

And which offensive players were those?

We can skip Kizer and Kessler, who are quarterbacks (except hmm...both their names start with "K"...)

Corey Coleman was the first.  He's a super-quick, super-fast 6' muscular athlete who was very raw, but can play any wide receiver slot (or running back for that matter).

This is without question a "playmaker", selected more for his physical talent than for his production in college, or prospects as a rookie.

More specifically, while he certainly is a deep threat, he's more dangerous short and intermediate.  He can catch a quarterback-friendly short or intermediate pass, and take it to the house.

And this is how he is best used.  You have a big/tall fast guy for the deep stuff, and use Coleman more underneath.

Then there were three more wide receivers, all of which were big and tall.  Two were possession types, but Ricardo Louis is unusually fast and athletic, so he goes in the deep threat category.

Then two offensive linemen: Drango and Coleman.  Coleman needs little work as a run blocker.  Drango is a blue collar guy who can play several positions.

Then there was TE Seth DeValve, a converted wide receiver who (I thought) would never be an in-line blocker.

Based on the 2016 draft, you couldn't be blamed for expecting a lot of 3 and 4-wide spreads, with a lot of inside runs.

To my credit (blush-blush) I expected at least some two-back and two-tight end stuff, and also said "they're making sure wide receiver is covered."

Ok skip the defensive moves, and add to the database the offensive acquisitions since:

Njoku was generally considered the number two tight end prospect in this draft.  He is a capable in-line blocker, as well as being very much like OJ Howard as a receiver.  He averaged around 2 more yards after first contact than Howard too.  He might end up being better than Howard.

I thought he'd back up Gary Barnidge, but Sashi released Gary almost instantly.

Left tackle Roderick Johnson was the only other significant offensive player (no offense to Mays) drafted.

As I've mentioned before, Seth DeValve returning at 260 lbs may have greased the skids for Gary's departure.  T J Holtz has some real upside, and Randall Telfer is a very good blocker who can catch short ones ok.

I can see how smart people could punch holes in this theory, but I think Hue wants to run a two-tight end offense a lot; maybe even as a base.

This is partly because they drafted DeValve last season.  If you recall (or look at my posts back then), I sort of ranked DeValve right behind Coleman as a pure receiver, and expected him to play a lot as a rookie; I was talking two-tight end back then, too.

I now believe that Hue will run a two tight end offense a lot based on more recent moves.

One of these was not paying Terrelle Pryor (a move I still think was stupid).  In essentially replacing Pryor with Kenny Britt, they told me that Hue Jackson doesn't regard that skyscraper deep threat as critical (which in turn told me that he is not a copycat).

Njoku was the more obvious indicator.  In the new/improved DeValve and Njoku, he now has two young studs who will grow into foundational players, and only enter their respective primes in 2018.

Don't sleep on Holtz, and Telfer has earned his place here.

That was analytics.  The X's and O's are more compelling:

Britt, Coleman, DeValve, Njoku, and either running back make it hard on modern defenses (mainly because both tight ends can block in-line, as well as lead-block, go in motion, set up wide etc).

This personnel grouping is a run-set, and normally forces a base defense.  Hue wants to do this, so he can keep today's "specialized" players off the field, and wear the bigger guys down.

Of course, modern defenses have kept pace with modern offenses, and defensive coordinators aren't mentally impaired, so they'll know exactly what Hue is up to, and some will come up with answers.

But most defenses are prioritizing the 3-wide, with a little waterbug slot guy, and not a two-tight end offense.

Only Lord Insideous has fielded two REAL dual-threat tight ends on the field at the same time.  Other two-tight end offenses have one scary receiver and one blocker.  You can't be drafting players to stop 1/32nd of the league, see?

Some defenses will try a "big nickel", but generally here's the deal:

The Browns now have an elite offensive line, and averaged almost 5 yards per carry in 2016 with both starting guards out, and a crappy center.

Opposing defenses HAVE TO prioritize stopping the run, at least early, especially since both tight ends are real tight ends who can actually block.

For most defenses (note: not for the 2017 Browns defense), this does force a 3-4 or 4-3 base defense, longer on power and shorter on speed.

Still with me?  Ok so already the opposing defense can't match up.  No, they can't.

With this personnel grouping, the Browns could deploy in empty backfield (a de facto 5-wide), 4-wide, 3-wide, a conventional set, a 21 (two-back) set with a "tight end" as a lead-blocker.

Aside from the running back and Coleman, every receiver is big/strong with a big catch radius (margin of error) who gets "open" early (and Coleman or the running back fit this last spec btw).

I would expect Hue to send Britt postal on every snap in this set, daring the free safety to ignore him (btw I watched Kessler's college tapes.  If you think he can't throw a low-trajectory pass 53 yards downfield, you need to stop taking Tony Grossi so literally).

You need to set aside labels here:  NJoku averaged over 17 yards per catch at the highest level of competition.  Seth DeValve isn't the freak he is, but could get close...

Sorry but I look at everything, and have to mention this:  DeValve is shorter than Njoku, and now outweighs him by 12-15 lbs.

He will be stronger, and have better leverage.  He could be even better as a blocker, and start running little guys over!  I'm pretty sure he intends to.

Coleman and Njoku are lethal short targets.  Two tight ends blocking for the run, in conjunction with the revamped offensive line is scary.  

Bubble screens, screens, chips, neutralized edge-rushes, etc...very quarterback-freindly; elite talent not mandatory.

I'll email Hue again to make sure he sees it, as soon as I figure out this "message was undeliverable" technical glitch...





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